Money in the Hobby

[KMayUSA6060]

Seeing as though our economy has been stagnant at best for the past 2 decades, with the recession in the middle, and card prices have still increased, I'm going to say I'm bullish on the sustainability of the card market. I think as our economy grows (which is should) over the foreseeable future, these cards will just continue to increase. Maybe not your commons, but HoFers and rarities? Heck yeah. I'm 23 and know and handful of people my age that are collecting Pre-War. The hobby isn't going anywhere but up in my opinion, as long as the economy is solid.

Enjoy the present, hope the best for the future, and Make the Hobby Great Again.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by KMayUSA6060

Seeing as though our economy has been stagnant at best for the past 2 decades, with the recession in the middle, and card prices have still increased, I'm going to say I'm bullish on the sustainability of the card market. I think as our economy grows (which is should) over the foreseeable future, these cards will just continue to increase. Maybe not your commons, but HoFers and rarities? Heck yeah. I'm 23 and know and handful of people my age that are collecting Pre-War. The hobby isn't going anywhere but up in my opinion, as long as the economy is solid.

Enjoy the present, hope the best for the future, and Make the Hobby Great Again.

The economy has been improving, look at unemployment, stocks and interest rates for indications...

But Bingo on the youth collecting vintage. There are tons of facebook groups trading and collecting vintage. Albeit they are looking for beaters, when they get older and have more disposable income, they will be looking to upgrade their beaters...

[KMayUSA6060]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

The economy has been improving, look at unemployment, stocks and interest rates for indications...

But Bingo on the youth collecting vintage. There are tons of facebook groups trading and collecting vintage. Albeit they are looking for beaters, when they get older and have more disposable income, they will be looking to upgrade their beaters...

I'm sorry I didn't make my post more clear. The economy has absolutely been improving recently, but for the good part of two decades, it was in decline/stagnant, yet prices still increased on these cards.

I think my generation, as much as I try to distance myself from them, learned from their parents' errors when it came to card collecting, and are going for the timeless, classic cards that are no longer being produced and show true history.

[ronniehatesjazz]

Originally Posted by KMayUSA6060

I'm sorry I didn't make my post more clear. The economy has absolutely been improving recently, but for the good part of two decades, it was in decline/stagnant, yet prices still increased on these cards.

I think my generation, as much as I try to distance myself from them, learned from their parents' errors when it came to card collecting, and are going for the timeless, classic cards that are no longer being produced and show true history.

Always good to come across another self hating millennial lol. I totally agree with you on all points.

[sycks22]

I always tell people at shows that vintage cards (for the most part) will never go down. Cobb / Ruth / Mantle can't do anything anymore to negatively affect their value while Trout / Harper / Strasburg, etc can blow out a knee / arm for a pitcher and they could be done. Name 1 high profile Ruth / Mantle / Cobb / Matty, etc that has lost value over the last 10 years?

[mechanicalman]

I understand the sentiment behind Adam's point on it being "pointless to predict the future," but it's hard for me to think it's pointless for not having some thought about the future stability of these assets. If I had no regard for future value, I'd feel like I'd be doing my family a great disservice by being reckless with my spending.

I, like others, am bullish, at least when it comes to high-eye-appeal HoFers from popular sets. The biggest spenders I've met in the hobby happen to cluster in age from late 30s to late 40s. These dudes have a deep passion for the sport of baseball and for collecting. It's not a phase for them. They will outlive boomers. It's a small sample size, but I think it's indicative of a bigger trend of dudes coming into money and trying to reconnect with meaningful sh*t from the past. Bottom line, I think we'll be fine for at least another 40 years; at least that's what I tell myself and my wife.

[rainier2004]

I've been leery on the hobby for years mainly due to the potential fraud. But...the hobby has survived.

As long as the economy doesn't nose dive like it did in 1929, and that wont be happening anytime soon having unemployment hit 40%, the sky is the limit.

And even think there is more upside. What if a TPG could actually capture the strengths of the two that exist now? A company that could grade and turn around cards like SGC and another with the marketing/registry of PSA and have it lead the way on fraud protection? It would blow even more doors off the barrier to entry in the hobby. I also think lots of people are tired of stocks and traditional investments...they're just boring and the fees associated with them are real...unlike cards.

Everything will cycle, everything will have it ups and downs but over the long term the general hobby will be fine.

Also...art is everywhere and affects us all whether you engage or not IMO.

[Throttlesteer]

It's really no different than the stock market. There will be peaks and valleys, somewhat in line with the rest with the impact of the economy on other investments. Newer cards and memorabilia are much more sensitive to flavor-of-the-month and people "short" them. Do you think a Tom Brady SP rookie is going to continue to get $15k in the future? Maybe, maybe not. But, I don't anticipate a bunch of new pre-war stuff getting discovered and, with the internets, there is a lot better understanding of how scarce some of the issues really are. Don't expect T206s, 33' Goudeys, or 52 Topps cards to tank anytime soon. Sure, there will continue to be fluctuations as the economy pulls back or surges forward. But, a lot of the vintage stuff is going to continue to rise over time.

It seems we had this discussion back in 2008-2009 when the economy tanked. The smart guys got some great deals

[NYYFan63]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

It's really no different than the stock market. There will be peaks and valleys, somewhat in line with the rest with the impact of the economy on other investments. Newer cards and memorabilia are much more sensitive to flavor-of-the-month and people "short" them. Do you think a Tom Brady SP rookie is going to continue to get $15k in the future? Maybe, maybe not. But, I don't anticipate a bunch of new pre-war stuff getting discovered and, with the internets, there is a lot better understanding of how scarce some of the issues really are. Don't expect T206s, 33' Goudeys, or 52 Topps cards to tank anytime soon. Sure, there will continue to be fluctuations as the economy pulls back or surges forward. But, a lot of the vintage stuff is going to continue to rise over time.



It seems we had this discussion back in 2008-2009 when the economy tanked. The smart guys got some great deals

I find this discussion fascinating. I wish I was collecting in 2008-2009 but didn’t get back until last summer.


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[Touch'EmAll]

My cards have been profitable enough for me to continue in the hobby. Looking back at what I paid for them, I probably wouldn't still be in the hobby if they were now worth less. They are historical, neat & cool, but if you're losing money, you kinda like stop.

When big money comes in, the acquisitions are mostly blue chip cards. That's what you want when you drop some serious (for you) coin. Long term? Just hope the trend continues.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I understand the sentiment behind Adam's point on it being "pointless to predict the future," but it's hard for me to think it's pointless for not having some thought about the future stability of these assets. If I had no regard for future value, I'd feel like I'd be doing my family a great disservice by being reckless with my spending.

I, like others, am bullish, at least when it comes to high-eye-appeal HoFers from popular sets. The biggest spenders I've met in the hobby happen to cluster in age from late 30s to late 40s. These dudes have a deep passion for the sport of baseball and for collecting. It's not a phase for them. They will outlive boomers. It's a small sample size, but I think it's indicative of a bigger trend of dudes coming into money and trying to reconnect with meaningful sh*t from the past. Bottom line, I think we'll be fine for at least another 40 years; at least that's what I tell myself and my wife.

I agree. The biggest spenders I know are in their late 30s to mid-50's. i think this is only natural, considering these are the peak financial years for an adult male. Sean did raise some interesting issues about supply going up as the baby-boomers' collections make their way back into market. But I don't think this will affect the values of rare cards, high end cards, or cards of the legends.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Baby boomers' collections have been coming onto the market for a long time now.

[orly57]

Good point Peter.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Baby boomers' collections have been coming onto the market for a long time now.

No way..... (I have my collection sale bookmarked )