The Quest for an Authentic 1909-11 T206 #499 Honus Wagner

[sportscardtheory]

(1/1/10) It's about that time. I'm going to start the quest to take a $50 or less purchase and flip it all the way to the most coveted trading card ever produced... any condition and back will do. It is going to be a long and arduous journey that will most assuredly take years, but it's all in good fun, and we have all the time in the world. First off, NOTHING will be set in stone. I can not give myself limitations. I need it to be an open ended project so as to keep it as simple and easy as possible for myself. I will start all the flips on eBay so the project can be tracked by any and all interested parties. I will also do my best to keep everything on eBay throughout the entire process, but it IS eBay and problems can certainly arise when dealing with them. I will most likely start off with BIN/Best Offers too, I just seem to do well with them. Clearly in the future, I will most likely be doing auctions as well, if only to keep the project rolling along steadily. Any and all help, advice and/or constructive criticism will be MUCH appreciated and I will do my best to keep things moving along at a pace worth keeping up with. I have not purchased my initial investment yet, but I will be scouring eBay for a deal starting now. Please remember that this is not a sprint, but a marathon... it WILL take time in-between buys/sells and I will not be posting progress until all purchased items are IN HAND and ready to be sold. And just so you all know, I will not be wasting my time with naysayers and/or negative Nancys, so please, don't even bother. This is ONLY for fun and profit and there is absolutely NO reason for arguments or negativity. For the record, this is not for charity, although if anything leads to a situation where that becomes a possibility, I will CERTAINLY consider it. This is for my own personal gain and for any future children I may have. I also know this will not be easy (nearly impossible) and I will not hesitate to ask for help with the decision making... I'm no genius. : ) With all that said, let the fun begin.

Here is photobucket to help follow along.

Item #1 - Paid $2.74

Item #1 - SOLD $13.05 Net


Item #2 - Paid - $10.99

Item #2a - SOLD - $7.89 Net (2a/2b/2c/2d)

Item #2b - SOLD - $7.89 Net (2a/2b/2c/2d)

Item #2c - SOLD - $7.89 Net (2a/2b/2c/2d)

Item #2d - SOLD - $7.89 Net (2a/2b/2c/2d)


Item #3 - Paid $9.08 for 2

Item #3a - SOLD $?

[drc]

Good luck.

[Ladder7]

Try to acquire the Honus, before the "future children". Give it Hell.

Good luck and God Speed

[dennis]

"let the fun begin"

[buymycards]

Please keep posting the ebay links so we can follow along. It looks like it could be interesting.

I have taken the opposite approach. When I buy a card for $50, I keep it for a while, then sell it on ebay for $35. I then buy a $35 card, and sell it at a card show for $20. I buy a - well, you get the drift. My final card is a 1988 Topps common.

Rick

[Kawika]

Same approach here. I started out with a house in Saskatchewan and parlayed it to a red paper clip.

[T206Collector]

...if you began the search 40 years ago... or even just 10 years ago. But since the market for most cards has leveled off or receded in recent years, this is going to be a much steeper climb. But good luck!

[teetwoohsix]

I wish you the best,and I hope it works out for you!!Good luck

[jmk59]

If you make 10% each flip, after 80 flips you end up just over $100K, which might get you there. Figuring 2 months per flip puts you at 13-14 years. Add 50% for lags, occasional misses, etc, makes it about 21 years.

Someone check my math? I think that's right but am not doing this on paper.

The biggest problem I see with what I just wrote is that it's unlikely that $100K will still get you a Wagner in 21 years. Selling for > 10% profit will help (although I'm sure that you would always sell for the most possible). Less obvious would be the effect of quicker turnarounds. The price of the Wagner would not gain as much if there is less time per turn.

But taking the effect of profit and turnaround time together, it's easy to see how one monster deal (or monster loss) could have a big impact on the time it takes to do this. Even really big profits or quicker turnarounds early on would help. Let's say that you get to where you buy one for $100 and then sell it for $200 instead of the 10% of $110. That may seem like an innocuous amount, but it cuts the same time off of the process as buying one for $50,000 and selling it for $100,00 immediately (thus reaching the end point in this hypothetical) without going through $55,000, etc.

It does sound fun though. I hope the analysis above didn't deflate the fun aspect of by making it too numerical.

Joann

[autograf]

Coupla dudes in Cincinnati will be glad to help out......

[Leon]

Originally Posted by autograf

Coupla dudes in Cincinnati will be glad to help out......

I think I know where one is for 100k or less .

[sox1903wschamp]

Best of luck. I think your going to need some immense breaks. There was someone on the CU board that attempted to trade from an 86 Topps common to a 52 Mantle. In about 2-3 years they made it to a 51 Bowman Spahn in PSA 8 but it appears the project ceased at that point. It will be fun to watch and I am pulling for you.

[barrysloate]

You probably could trade up a hundred times in a row if you know what you are doing. But the hardest transaction will be the last one, because you will be asking someone who owns a T206 Wagner to trade it for something less than a Wagner. That's where I think the buck will stop. But it will be an adventure.

[sportscardtheory]

Thanks for the well wishes everyone. I am already stuck on finding item #1. Figures, I can blow any dollar amount on great deals daily, but now that I start this I can't find anything worthwhile. lol Such is life. I'll find one sooner or later.

[chaddurbin]

cliffnotes: you will try to flip and profit your way to a honus wagner, from $50...and if there is some leftover you will consider giving it to charity.

i see lots of bing and cbs in your future...

[mintacular]

The bastard side of me thinks it would be funny if you pulled it off up to the last step and then got stuck with a a fake (year 2052) Good luck

[packs]

There was that one guy I remember reading about who started out with a pen and ended up with a house when all was said and done. Where do you look for trades? Craigslist?

[Cat]

Lionel Carter during his interview with Doug Allen stated that he was offered a T206 Wagner about 60 years ago for $250 but he passed because he thought it was way overpriced. Someone on the boards did the math and determined that the card had increased in value roughly 12% COMPOUNDED per year. A farely graded SGC 10 went for approximately $190,000 in 2007. Holding that math constant, you will have accomplished a hell of a feat when you get to the point of keeping up with the card's inflation - let alone being able to buy one. Flipping $100 cards will be much easier and quicker than flipping $10,000 cards. Good luck.

[bcornell]

And just so you all know, I will not be wasting my time with naysayers and/or negative Nancys, so please, don't even bother. This is ONLY for fun and profit and there is absolutely NO reason for arguments or negativity.

Well, that sucks. And I can't even figure out what you're talking about.

[asoriano]

[cardaholic]

Flipping 500 cards that he bought at $100 each for $110 each would have the same effect.

barry - he's not asking anyone to do something out of the goodness of their hearts; he's seeking to repeatedly flip for profit by making smart buys. Bob Brill did something like this and blogged about it on Beckett a few years ago, though he stopped at near $10K.

If you're purchasing lots of cards that have nice breakup value, significant profits from flipping are quite doable.

[ChiefBenderForever]

After ebay and paypal fees flipping 500 cards from 100.00 to 110.00 would just barely make any profit. Good luck on the journey !

[sportscardtheory]

I finally won my first item. I will post the won item and the new listing as soon as it arrives and I create the listing. lol Let's just say my initial investment is far less than I was expecting.

[mintacular]

but i think this is a very bad idea. we've already determined such a project would take years if not decades to complete and I just don't see people reading this thread for that long. Why don't you try something on a small scale and if it works/is entertaining you could consider relaunching this one. either way i'm not trying to rain on your parade but c'mon dude...

[insidethewrapper]

Love that 20/20 video on youtube. Everyone should watch that. From a "Red paper CLip" to a "House" in 14 trades. that is amazing. What you need to do is trade items (like the video) , don't just keep buying cards and reselling over and over.

Think in backwards terms. What would an owner of the Wagner card want in trade ?

[Touch'EmAll]

Wow! Good Luck. I just wish I could just gain little over 10% per year - consistently. Have another beer. Cheers!

[PolarBear]

He'll be back in a year, sadder but wiser.

[sportscardtheory]

Originally Posted by mintacular

but i think this is a very bad idea. we've already determined such a project would take years if not decades to complete and I just don't see people reading this thread for that long. Why don't you try something on a small scale and if it works/is entertaining you could consider relaunching this one. either way i'm not trying to rain on your parade but c'mon dude...

Okay, you can look at it as though I'm trying for a 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco. Better? What's the difference how high I set my goal. If I get to $5,000, did I fail. lol

[jrog007]

Go for it man! I want to see how it goes. Good Luck !
Jim

[iggyman]

I salute you in your quest and wish you "bon voyagee" on your journey. One tiny question, if I may. Are there any tax consequences towards the end of your journey??? Especially if you get some pub. (*and I'm not talking about beer...).

Lovely Day...

[teetwoohsix]

I'm just curious-will you also let us know what you paid for the item?I can see why you wouldn't want to say "before" the item was flipped,but how about "after"?Then we could really understand the progression.Just wondering..........

[sportscardtheory]

And so it begins.

Item #1 - Paid $2.74

Item #1 - Sold $?

[baseballart]

Originally Posted by iggyman

I... One tiny question, if I may. Are there any tax consequences towards the end of your journey??? Especially if you get some pub. (*and I'm not talking about beer...).

Lovely Day...

I'm just a Canadian tax lawyer, so I know (next to) nothing about US tax. I suspect baseball cards don't qualify as "replacement property" for a US tax deferral.

On the other hand, I grew up in Saskatchewan, so I do know something about getting houses for red paper clips. If I recall correctly, the house in question had a fair market value of about $30,000. A few years ago (before the potash boom), some houses in rural Saskatchewan would be sold for $1, as they weren't worth more than the cost of incurring the running expenses (property tax, heating, insurance, etc). It's actually quite sad how many small towns and farm houses in Saskatchewan have disappeared into the prairies over the last 40 years, as farms get larger. My grandparent's farmhouse is a typical example, with a picture of the old barn, taken about 20 years ago:





Good luck in your quest.

Max

[Kawika]

Good night, Max Boy.

[sportscardtheory]

I know it's been awhile, but once I get some real money it will go much faster.

Item #2 Paid - $10.99

Item #2a SOLD - $7.89 Net (2a/2b/2c/2d)

Item #2b SOLD - $7.89 Net (2a/2b/2c/2d)

Item #2c SOLD - $7.89 Net (2a/2b/2c/2d)

Item #2d SOLD - $7.89 Net (2a/2b/2c/2d)

[mintacular]

We will all be DEAD by the time this comes to fruition...And I'm only 31

[botn]

As will our great grandchildren.

[Il Padrino]

Don't forget to deduct taxes on "flips", the gooberment and all its new shiny IRS agents are watching EVERYTHING.

[BigDan502]

I guess this falls under the fail category.
Great in theory

[Doug]

Originally Posted by autograf

Coupla dudes in Cincinnati will be glad to help out......

Originally Posted by Leon

I think I know where one is for 100k or less .

I didn't know my neighbors had a T206 Wagner!

[FUBAR]

there was a recent story how a guy turned his cel phone into a porsche boxster simply by making trades on craigslist, so this is possible, you just need the right deals!

[botn]

Great story

http://www.digitaltrends.com/computi...ia-craigslist/

[Peter_Spaeth]

Hmmmm.... we haven't heard about his progress since March ..... wonder how it's going.

[mab]

Interesting concept. Anyone here ever tried to do this with a more modest goal, say starting with an inexpensive card and trying to get to a Gehrig, Ruth, or Cobb? Something expensive, but not stratospheric?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mab

Interesting concept. Anyone here ever tried to do this with a more modest goal, say starting with an inexpensive card and trying to get to a Gehrig, Ruth, or Cobb? Something expensive, but not stratospheric?

No, but I have successfully parlayed many more expensive cards into less expensive ones, by buying high and selling low.

[Tom S.]

Originally Posted by mab

Interesting concept. Anyone here ever tried to do this with a more modest goal, say starting with an inexpensive card and trying to get to a Gehrig, Ruth, or Cobb? Something expensive, but not stratospheric?

About 1 year ago, I remember someone on another forum tried to parlay a 1986 Topps common into a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. After about seven or eight trades, he was able to obtain a PSA 8 1951 Bowman Warren Spahn before his quest ended.

[rdixon1208]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No, but I have successfully parlayed many more expensive cards into less expensive ones, by buying high and selling low.

Hilarious