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  #21  
Old 07-15-2018, 06:55 PM
dio dio is offline
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Price goes up - people complaint price too high i can't get the card i want
Price goes down - I'm losing money on my cards...

Either way people will not be happy, Just buy what you enjoy with money that's not in need. People spend 100k on buying a brand new car after 5 years only worth 50k , as long as you enjoys it and the money you spend on it is not needed. then why care
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  #22  
Old 07-15-2018, 09:01 PM
David W David W is offline
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Originally Posted by AGuinness View Post
Playing a bit of Devil's Advocate here, but one can't invest in last year's stock market today, right? So if somebody with an educated opinion prefers investing in cards over the market today, it's certainly possible that it's the better choice.

You may be correct. But if you are investing in high end graded cards of top players, you do not know how many high end cards are still out there waiting to be graded.

So you do not know the supply side of the equation, nor necessarily even the demand side.

But people have and will make money speculating on baseball cards.
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  #23  
Old Yesterday, 11:24 AM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
Garth Guibord
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Originally Posted by David W View Post
You may be correct. But if you are investing in high end graded cards of top players, you do not know how many high end cards are still out there waiting to be graded.

So you do not know the supply side of the equation, nor necessarily even the demand side.

But people have and will make money speculating on baseball cards.
Very true, and in particular the population of ungraded cards likely increases the more modern the card is, creating more risk for modern and recent star cards.

But continuing as a Devil's Advocate, I think the unknowns and speculation in the stock market are also very prevalent. Speculation has been cited as at least one of the reasons behind each of the major stock market crashes. And while market cap and other statistics on stocks are widely available to shareholders, there are many examples of companies deceiving the public and their shareholders by using loopholes and accounting tricks ("cooking the books") to hide debt, etc. (such as Enron). I think there's likely a certain amount of unknown risk in EVERY investment.
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  #24  
Old Yesterday, 12:04 PM
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jchcollins jchcollins is offline
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I'm not experienced enough to comment on the true high-end of the market, or what real rarities or highly desired pre-war sells for, or anything like that. But, in the wheelhouse of what I do collect and am familiar with (1950-70's mid-grade stars - whether graded or not) I think on the whole the cards remain very affordable and also don't seem to lose a ton of value. I think a PSA 5 '63 Topps Willie Mays (to use an example from my collection) if you do the math and see what a comparable (albeit before grading) version of that same card sold for in say 1989 - I think you would find things haven't changed all that much.

Again, this obviously doesn't speak to the rather large changes in the high end of the vintage market that have happened since 1989 - but it works for me.
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'56 and '67 Topps sets. Mid to off-grade 1950's thru 70's HOFers. Old Cubs and Brooklyn Dodgers. Random eBay impulse purchases...

Last edited by jchcollins; Yesterday at 12:06 PM.
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  #25  
Old Yesterday, 12:39 PM
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JustinD JustinD is offline
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Originally Posted by AGuinness View Post
Very true, and in particular the population of ungraded cards likely increases the more modern the card is, creating more risk for modern and recent star cards.
I would actually doubt that hypothesis.

The production numbers are lower and the collecting base are adult due to the immense cost of anything other than base sets. It is also a collecting group that has fully embraced TPGs.

Anyone that is sitting on a childhood collection or has not been avid in collecting in the past 20 years is unlikely to have used a TPG and thus the cards are unaccounted for. As the boomers and older pass on, their children may look to move those inheritances and will be adding to the pop numbers for sale.

The first thing modern collectors do is sleeve cards from the pack and ship off anything to the TPGs.
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Player collecting - Lance Parrish, Jim Davenport, John Norlander.

Successful B/S/T with - Highstep74, Northviewcats, pencil1974, T2069bk, tjenkins, wilkiebaby11, baez578, Bocabirdman, maddux31, Leon, Just-Collect, bigfish, quinnsryche...and a whole bunch more, I stopped keeping track, lol.
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  #26  
Old Yesterday, 12:56 PM
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I would actually doubt that hypothesis.
The production numbers are lower and the collecting base are adult due to the immense cost of anything other than base sets. It is also a collecting group that has fully embraced TPGs.
.
Agreed. As costly for the hobby as the fallout of the "junk era" was, the manufacturers learned their lesson well. Instead of a wide hobby base now and collecting being wildly popular at all age ranges, you have a narrowed range that is increasingly about wealthy adults. I suppose the manufacturers chose this as a safer route rather than go to extra effort to ensure the hobby remained affordable for a wider range of collectors. As for TPG's, I'm personally surprised that the marked embraced them so completely so quickly, but the handwriting was clearly on the wall decades earlier over in the coin hobby.
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  #27  
Old Yesterday, 03:16 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustinD View Post
I would actually doubt that hypothesis.

The production numbers are lower and the collecting base are adult due to the immense cost of anything other than base sets. It is also a collecting group that has fully embraced TPGs.

Anyone that is sitting on a childhood collection or has not been avid in collecting in the past 20 years is unlikely to have used a TPG and thus the cards are unaccounted for. As the boomers and older pass on, their children may look to move those inheritances and will be adding to the pop numbers for sale.

The first thing modern collectors do is sleeve cards from the pack and ship off anything to the TPGs.
Agreed that modern collectors are likely to perceive investment value in their cards and treat them accordingly. But I would, as a Devil's Advocate, also say that despite lower production numbers, this perception would lead to a higher chance of more investment grade examples of a card. There are likely baby boomers sitting on ungraded collections, but how many of those cards are actually investment grade?

For example, there is a single example of the Nolan Ryan rookie at PSA 10, while there are 22 examples of the Derek Jeter 1993 SP at PSA 10. Despite the lower production numbers on the Jeter, I would contend that there is a greater likelihood that more possible PSA 10 examples of the Jeter are in collections and currently ungraded than there are ungraded of the Ryans (there are, of course, many more ungraded Ryan rookies out there, but I'm thinking there are very few investment grade examples).

Another example could be the 2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady rookie auto, which in my limited research appears to have a print run of 3,000 (saw that number on the Blowout forum). PSA looks to have graded 14/148 at 10, while BGS has 15/643 at 9.5 (Beckett's site is a bit confusing for me on this card, but I think I've read that right). That leaves (approximately) 2,209 ungraded examples of the card, and with the modern preservation logic, most would have been well protected by their owners. If the 3.6 percent of the current population at 10 PSA/9.5 BGS holds, thats an additional 81 Gem Mint Tom Brady auto rookies that could enter the market. Of course, it could be argued that demand would still exceed that supply, but I'm playing Devil's Advocate about the RISK of investment grade cards when it comes to the modern market. These numbers would indicate that it is more likely the market will see a number of these investment grade Gem Mint Brady rookies (or of the Jeter SP rookie) become available through new grading than the Gem Mint Ryan rookie.
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  #28  
Old Yesterday, 04:58 PM
Johnny630 Johnny630 is offline
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What vintage card collector ever thought that in 2018 people would be buying or bidding on teams or players in box/case breaks ? The new guys that do this donít collect itís all about the Gamble not the love of Team or Player. I equate this to team/player loyalty being blown away by the Fantasy Player. To me itís just like going into a casino. This is why I stick to Vintage.
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  #29  
Old Yesterday, 06:37 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
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What vintage card collector ever thought that in 2018 people would be buying or bidding on teams or players in box/case breaks ? The new guys that do this donít collect itís all about the Gamble not the love of Team or Player. I equate this to team/player loyalty being blown away by the Fantasy Player. To me itís just like going into a casino. This is why I stick to Vintage.
Very true, all about the speculation.

I'd be interested in hearing from somebody who is involved with or follows other collectibles/investments about the phases and how things mature. We're all familiar with the arc of baseball (and sports) cards evolving from trifles with little monetary value to what some now consider an investment vehicle. Are they behind in that arc compared to stamps, coins or something else? What happened after stamps, coins, etc. moved on to their next phase?
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