Yes, this is OT but still a valid subject - Have they petered out?

[Leon]

Ok, for all of the thread police, I understand this '63 Topps is a post war card.

That being said, at least to me, the discussion is relevant for the entire hobby as it affects the entire hobby. IF you don't think it does, then that can be your opinion and no one will try to take it from you. But these "investors" do affect it regardless of if anyone agrees or not. Wasn't it not very long ago, maybe a month or three, that these 1963 Rose cards were going for about 15k in 8 holders? I seem to remember them getting snapped up frequently in that area.

SO you would think this one for a Best Offer or $9500 would be a great deal, no? Have the investor's gone to other cards, will this happen to the others until the investors are gone? We can only hope so!! But no, with the recent prices seen on other cards (44k Reggie) it doesn't seem so. I just have to think there will be a few unlucky investors holding the bag at the end. ... Maybe the Rose will come all the way back to reality prices?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1963-Topps-5...wAAOSwaB5XjUrJ

[ashes13]

This is no surprise to 99% of long time collectors and many who posted on these message boards and on the psa message boards. There was a strange and unprecedented run up in prices of about 30 or so "investment" grade HOF rookie cards from about April to July. I think many of the alleged sales during this time were not real sales. Of course I am sure there were legitimate sales too, but there were many "sales" that were clearly "peculiar"
Some of this apparent price movement did affect other areas of the HOF rookie card market causing some cards like Jeter rookies and other rookies to see a demand and price spike up but 99% of the other segments of the card hobby were unaffected and prices stayed the same or even softened as many jumped on the bandwagon shifting dollars from one area to the"hot" area.
Maybe collectors and investors should just remove that 3 months period from their "pricing" analysis and assume "it never happened?"
I will also add however, that many HOF rookie card prices have stayed basically flat for 15 years or more. You can pick up a price guide from 15 years ago and see that the prices of PSA 8 Schmidt rookie or Bench rookie and many HOF rookie cards from the 50s and 60s and 70s were basically flat and didnt move forever, while many other HOF cards moved up in prices and the overall "health of the card market" grew and got stronger. I think the Rose rookie was in that camp too. Price of a Rose PSA 7 and PSA 8 never moved for many, many years. So perhaps some of these cards are simply making up for years of stagnant prices. Why they moved up so quickly and not more gradual is the head scratcher.

Why this happened, not sure (a few possible explanations, some of which may be as crazy as the price blip)
-many millionaires and billionaires from china trying to circumvent restrictive capital controls from getting their money out of the country buying hard assets in the US only to then flip those assets and convert to cash located in this country? high end graded sports cards are liquid enough to do the trick
-big wall street money looking to diversify the gazillions of easy dollars they have made in stocks the past 8 years (overpaying for cards for many of these folks is a rounding error when your net worth is a billion or more)-one or two of these guys could buy PSA (yes the entire company,its parent company, CLCT has a market cap of $200 million)and every high end graded sports card and still not make a dent in their balance sheet. If you are used to buying $30 million Monets and Picassos, whats $15,000 for a rookie card of your childhood baseball idol
-people moving into alternative assets quickly expecting the stock market to falter, talk of the utter financial chaos of the UK leaving the EU, election year in the US, slowing economy--when none of this happened this summer, in fact stocks are at all time highs, unemployment at all time lows, this hot money moved back into the financial markets and out of the collectible market as quickly as it went in?

-straight up pure attempted price manipulation in the card market?

-the" buying group" got their safes fully stocked with all the key rookie cards, got bored or disbanded or moved on to something else?

I think the more gradual 3 year run up in high grade or iconic cards and HOF rookie cards, such as Goudey Ruths, 52 Mantles, T206 Cobbs, etc is more legitimate and simply a reflection of the unprecedented rise in overall net worths of most US households due to real estate prices at all time highs, all time high in stock markets and super low unemployment. Basically, people are awash in money, 401k balances, and "assets" in general and so a rising tide lifts all boats, including sports cards, especially "investment grade" examples. Plus, as mentioned before, the "kids" of the 80s and 90s who drove the initial card boom and rookie card craze in the 80s and 90s are now middle age adults who have the income and money to buy the cards they could never afford, such as Rose rookies, Mantles, Mays, Ruth, Cobbs. Lots of wealthy 30-60 year olds out there. While its nice to see a bunch of zeros after the numbers in your bank accounts, stock accounts, etc., for many of those folks its more fun to hold "hard assets" such as sports cards in your hand and enjoy the hobby

Bottom line is the crazy run up in some HOF rookie cards may continue at a less torrid pace, but it doesnt really affect 99% of the long time card collectors out there.

[botn]

Shocking there has only been one reply. I would have thought the numerous defenders of the new era in the hobby would be explaining why so many of the rookie cards which went up 500%, and some much more, have now pulled back.

All one has to do is take a look at VCP to see the direction of the trend. The "demand" we saw was artificial, at least on the grade 8 and lower, as I had been saying all along. There were also panic buyers who did not want to get left out as they saw prices double, sometimes each week. Will not deny there was new money but most of it was not here to stay. The market increases were also not due to PSA's aggressive marketing campaign like some have offered as explanation for the move.

Fact is that certain people from the non-existent "buying group", have been banned from auctions, others are liquidating or have moved on. Recent price drops are not due to sales being too close to the National or because examples offered are low end or have some perceived flaw. In the end, as has always been the case, nice examples for the grade will do well. And we can continue to expect strong prices being paid for 9s and 10s assuming the pull back on the 8 grade and lower has not impacted that part of the market. Guess time will tell.

[Jobu]

While I do not disagree with what has been posted, it should also be pointed out that the centering on that card is really bad and the non-centered cards have not gone bananas like the centered cards (there are exceptions). This makes sense because, as a fellow board member once told me, "Topps is known to have some serious issues with centering, but only from 1951 to 2016."

[Joshwesley]

I've been in the hobby for 1.5 years and it's easy to see what's been happening the last 6 months..

There is going to be lots of folks stuck with PSA 8 and 9 HOF rookies that just lost 80% of their value.

I've never thought any of this was sustainable.

Too much supply... The rare (pre-war) stuff IMO is where the value for investing purposes (long term).

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by ashes13

This is no surprise to 99% of long time collectors and many who posted on these message boards and on the psa message boards. There was a strange and unprecedented run up in prices of about 30 or so "investment" grade HOF rookie cards from about April to July. I think many of the alleged sales during this time were not real sales. Of course I am sure there were legitimate sales too, but there were many "sales" that were clearly "peculiar"
Some of this apparent price movement did affect other areas of the HOF rookie card market causing some cards like Jeter rookies and other rookies to see a demand and price spike up but 99% of the other segments of the card hobby were unaffected and prices stayed the same or even softened as many jumped on the bandwagon shifting dollars from one area to the"hot" area.
Maybe collectors and investors should just remove that 3 months period from their "pricing" analysis and assume "it never happened?"
I will also add however, that many HOF rookie card prices have stayed basically flat for 15 years or more. You can pick up a price guide from 15 years ago and see that the prices of PSA 8 Schmidt rookie or Bench rookie and many HOF rookie cards from the 50s and 60s and 70s were basically flat and didnt move forever, while many other HOF cards moved up in prices and the overall "health of the card market" grew and got stronger. I think the Rose rookie was in that camp too. Price of a Rose PSA 7 and PSA 8 never moved for many, many years. So perhaps some of these cards are simply making up for years of stagnant prices. Why they moved up so quickly and not more gradual is the head scratcher.

Why this happened, not sure (a few possible explanations, some of which may be as crazy as the price blip)
-many millionaires and billionaires from china trying to circumvent restrictive capital controls from getting their money out of the country buying hard assets in the US only to then flip those assets and convert to cash located in this country? high end graded sports cards are liquid enough to do the trick
-big wall street money looking to diversify the gazillions of easy dollars they have made in stocks the past 8 years (overpaying for cards for many of these folks is a rounding error when your net worth is a billion or more)-one or two of these guys could buy PSA (yes the entire company,its parent company, CLCT has a market cap of $200 million)and every high end graded sports card and still not make a dent in their balance sheet. If you are used to buying $30 million Monets and Picassos, whats $15,000 for a rookie card of your childhood baseball idol
-people moving into alternative assets quickly expecting the stock market to falter, talk of the utter financial chaos of the UK leaving the EU, election year in the US, slowing economy--when none of this happened this summer, in fact stocks are at all time highs, employment at all time lows, this hot money moved back into the financial markets and out of the collectible market as quickly as it went in?

-straight up pure attempted price manipulation in the card market?

-the" buying group" got their safes fully stocked with all the key rookie cards, got bored or disbanded or moved on to something else?

I think the more gradual 3 year run up in high grade or iconic cards and HOF rookie cards, such as Goudey Ruths, 52 Mantles, T206 Cobbs, etc is more legitimate and simply a reflection of the unprecedented rise in overall net worths of most US households due to real estate prices at all time highs, all time high in stock markets and super low employment. Basically, people are awash in money, 401k balances, and "assets" in general and so a rising tide lifts all boats, including sports cards, especially "investment grade" examples. Plus, as mentioned before, the "kids" of the 80s and 90s who drove the initial card boom and rookie card craze in the 80s and 90s are now middle age adults who have the income and money to buy the cards they could never afford, such as Rose rookies, Mantles, Mays, Ruth, Cobbs. Lots of wealthy 30-60 year olds out there. While its nice to see a bunch of zeros after the numbers in your bank accounts, stock accounts, etc., for many of those folks its more fun to hold "hard assets" such as sports cards in your hand and enjoy the hobby

Bottom line is the crazy run up in some HOF rookie cards may continue at a less torrid pace, but it doesnt really affect 99% of the long time card collectors out there.

Jay, a thoughtful, cerebral look at what may or may not be happening in our little world. Thanks. Just a couple of thoughts to add:-
The Chinese, why not? They steal intellectual property, manipulate their currency, due to their massive reserves, to build a huge trading advantage over the developed world, dope their athletes, hack our systems, all under some kind capitalism meets communism umbrella. I lived many years in Hong Kong and watched their money worshipping culture.
I don't think many of us can perceive amount of personal wealth the hedgies and private equity boys have rolled up in the last 10 years. Many of them have achieved annual net incomes of over $1,000,000,000, which is probably more than the GDP of Venezuela at the moment. If in such a position, a purchase of a '52 Topps PSA 9 Mays must feel like picking up the morning paper at the local newsstand, although in your position you probably have somebody to do that for you. Finally, I read in this morning's paper that Chrisity's, the auction people, had announced that sales of art and collectibles had dropped 15% in the past 12 months and abstract American modern art sales had dropped significantly (Jose Cancesco rookie cards, perhaps). What any of that means I have no idea.

[Snapolit1]

Never understood why some of these plentiful rookie cards exploded. Probably plenty of them sitting in boxes in attics, basements, thrift stores, etc.
The fact that certain little bubbles may burst doesn't mean that truly rare high end vintage cards are a bad investment.

[packs]

The problem with investing (in my opinion) is that once a person has one, they're done investing. Who would buy 3 PSA 8 Rose rookies? Probably not a lot of people.

[ls7plus]

This type of investor's market has happened fairly frequently in the coin hobby. It may last for several months to several years, but almost always ends with most of the investors exiting stage right and the prices dropping back to what a true collector would pay (some of them will like what they've acquired and stay with us, get better educated and become a true credit to the hobby). Better to carry on your personal hunt in the quieter areas while that type of market is ongoing with regard to cards of a particular era.

Highest regards to all,

Larry

[vintagechris]

As for the China buyers, I can confirm that there were some Asian buyers spending huge sums of money in auctions within the last couple years. I was told this in a casual conversation sometime last year by a higher ranking person working at a well known auction house. The person didn't think anything odd of it at the time, just that they were spending huge amounts of money.

IIRC, he called it new money in the market. I'm not sure what their motives were but it did happen according to this person.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by vintagechris

As for the China buyers, I can confirm that there were some Asian buyers spending huge sums of money in auctions within the last couple years. I was told this in a casual conversation sometime last year by a higher ranking person working at a well known auction house. The person didn't think anything odd of it at the time, just that they were spending huge amounts of money.

IIRC, he called it new money in the market. I'm not sure what their motives were but it did happen according to this person.

Very, very interesting!

Thanks for posting,

Larry