Southern league populations

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Posted By: David Poses

thanks for posting your study, scott.

i'm wondering if anybody has a guess as to the total population of these cards (not just what psa says, but raw and slabbed).

while it is reasonable to assume that the more popular stars of the time were held more often than unpopular players, what's the keep/discard ratio of the average smoker? did one smoker keep a dutch jordan for every 20 who kept a cobb? 200?

does anybody care to guess how many exist of any given southern league player today?

if ellam appeared on ebay at a ratio more than 2:1 to foley white, is it reasonable to assume that for every ellam floating around there are 2.3 whites?

what are the chances that someone in roanoke hoarded a ton of shaughnessy cards and he is about to croak and his great grandson is a methamphetamine addict waiting to inherit the hoard and stick it on ebay as one big lot to avoid multiple placement fees and thus maximize funding for his nefarious habit?

what would happen if one person owned, say, 10 arch persons? how much of the persons market would that represent?

will prices for southern leaguers continue to go up even though everybody wants one and nobody ever heard of most of these guys?

obviously scott's list is based on a serious study and i am not trying to undermine it in any way- just trying to keep the conversation about relative scarcity going.

d

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Posted By: barrysloate

This is the very first time I've ever seen the words "T206 Southern Leaguer" and "methamphetamine" in the same post!

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Posted By: david poses

yes, barry- me too- but surely you can see how this scenario is very feasible:

because roanoke is such a small city, they likely don't have the sort of access to, say, crack that we new yorkers have. as such, they have to resort to drugs one can manufacture with rudimentary household (and farmhold) chemicals. any given meth junky with a hoard of shaughnessys and a great grandfather on his deathbed would do the same thing.

i apologize for hijacking my own thread. i couldn't resist. now can we be serious?

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Posted By: david Poses

if nobody wants to discuss Southern League cards today, should I assume that nobody cares about them anymore? if so, please post your SLers on B/S/T for low prices.

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Posted By: barrysloate

There are many people on the board who are working on T206 sets and collect Southern Leaguers, but some of your questions are tough to answer. Most of them just deal with speculative issues, such as where are they and what percentage of such and such still exists. Truth is, nobody actually knows. I looked at your questions and realized I would have to just take a guess at every answer, and my guess wouldn't really be based on anything.

How would I know if someone in Roanoke is hoarding Shaughnessys? I have no idea.

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Posted By: Scot Reader

Okay, I'll bite.

I have said before that I think there are about 3,000 examples of a typical 350-only subject in existence. This is based on an analysis involving Demmitt and O'Hara (St. Louis) that I don't want to revisit here.

In my eBay survey, 2.4X as many examples of a typical 350-only subject appeared as a typical South Atlantic League, Virginia League or Southern Association subject.

1.6X as many examples of a typical 350-only subject appeared as a typical Texas League subject.

So I would guess that there are about 1,250 examples of a typical SAL/VL/SA subject and about 1,875 examples of a typical Texas League subject extant. Just a guess and I could be way off.

The reason for the disparity appears to be that Texas League subjects were printed longer with Piedmont 350.