Fallen out of Favor?

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Posted By: Jason

I'm stil a newbie to this era of card collecting, so I haven't been around it long enough to know, but I was wondering:

Have any pre-war, vintage baseball card issues ever fallen out of favor with collectors (either permanently or for extended periods of time)?
Have particular sets ever lost a collecting audience's interest and thus resulted in significantly depressed prices?

I know this is a bit "out there" in terms of questions, I like to try to learn the collecting history while I learn the cards...I am hoping some of the wonderfully dedicated hobby veterans might be able to comment on the "which, why, when, for-how-long" details if this has ever happened....

thanks!
Jason

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Posted By: Judge Dred (Fred)

Jason,

Here's an answer that's not exactly what you're looking for but...

Sets get hot. For a while now the caramel issues have been heating up in popularity. T206s have been popular for a long time but the Topps 206 offering brought a little more interest to the set.

It seems that sets cycle through hot/cold periods but I don't think that you could associate a cold cycle with a dreastic drop in price for any given set.

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Posted By: Kevin Cummings

Fred:

I can't wait for the next Old Judge Ice Age!

Kevin

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Posted By: Keith O'Leary

As Fred said, sets get hot, others level off a little and find their mean, but spiral down and drop - no. Been in the hobby for 35 years now and have yet to see any vintage baseball set go belly up and die.

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Posted By: Jason

as it is hard to imagine a reason for a set's value to collapse...

So which sets would you say have recently cooled off?

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Posted By: warshawlaw

I've been collecting for 35 years. I had my first dealer's table at a card show in 1978. I've seen the whole growth of the hobby. One thing I've not seen is anyone lose all their money buying solid vintage cards. One of the most irritating things about the news coverage from the National was the constant harping on what trouble card collecting was in. They made it sound like people couldn't give away cards. Yes, shiny crap and the shiny crap makers are singing the blues...AS IT SHOULD BE. People are finally wising up to the fact that buying new cards at retail is like tossing money in the toilet.

Vintage cards, especially pre WW I cards, are hotter than ever before. I do not expect any great declines, corrections, whatever else you want to call them, unless the general economy turns to mush and we have another Depression. That said, there are certainly some issues that are higher on the risk scale than others. No matter how much their cheerleaders try to boost them, PSA 8 and up vintage common cards are classically risky items because they are very expensive and trade thinly. If a few rich guys get bored, there goes a substantial chunk of the market. If you are really concerned about vintage sets retaining their value, stick with HOFers in the mainstream items: T205-T206-T207, 1933 Goudey, etc. Those cards are so widely collected and so accessible that there is a large market and there always will be.

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Posted By: Richard

I can only speak to the issues that I follow, but I have noticed a cooling off of 20's and 30's exhibit cards over the past 6 months. These used to be red hot and jumped quite a bit. I think that prices are leveling off a little.

Also, midgrade Gehrig Goudeys. I have seen a quite a few sell for less than SMR in the last couple of months. Same thing with WWG Gehrig and Ruths.

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Posted By: Wesley

T210 Red Borders were very hot about twelve months ago but prices have fallen dramatically.

N172 Old Judges seem stagnant With the exception of the rarities, the average OJ prices today seem almost the same as three years ago.

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Posted By: James Feagin

There are plenty of "cold" pre-war sets out there. Playball, Diamond Stars, WWG, S&S game, and Premiums are among the many. As far as Goudey Gehrig's, perhaps on ebay they have cooled off, but on the auction house circuit they are hotter than ever. Not uncommon to see a Goudey Gehrig SGC 50 to go for $1600 plus juice.

James

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Jason: your question is not at all "out there". It is right on target for what a wise collector of a variety of sets keeps himself appraised of at all times.

After all, why put money into something that may be near its short term peak?

All of the answers provided to you by our colleagues above are right on target. Personally, my purchases are driven to an extent by attempting to focus on what is not hot, because there often is a brief drop off when sets cool down.

As has been stated, in general, e-cards are performing spectacularly right now. Prior to this, t-cards were the rage. It has been quite a while since (as was mentioned) cards from the 20s and 30s were hot. They could be the next item up for bids on the price is right.

And make sure that you don't ignore those ratty old strip cards. There is a growing misconception that they are "quaint". But we know that they are simply butt ugly.

With this tho - even if you err, you still win ('cause there really is nothing to lose).