SPORTS CARD RADIO (anonymus PSA "insider")

[drcy]

I firmly believe that, in the future and perhaps near future, all cards from now and retroactively will be able to be identified-- and the hobby and collectors will be able to deal with that.

The idea that altered cards will remain undetected (except for those who don't want them examined) is false.

Though, duly note that there have been instances where cards have been restored, represented and graded as such. With the means to identify all altered cards, this may be a wave of the future.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by drcy

I firmly believe that, in the future and perhaps near future, all cards from now and retroactively will be able to be identified-- and the hobby and collectors will be able to deal with that.

The idea that altered cards will remain undetected (except for those who don't want them examined) is false.

Though, duly note that there have been instances where cards have been restored, represented and graded as such. With the means to identify all altered cards, this may be a wave of the future.

I hope you're right...

But it will never happen if PSA is still ruling the roost in the TPG world. A new better company will need to emerge, to render PSA (and it's tens of thousands of mis-graded cards) obsolete. PSA would NEVER take the responsibility to do so themselves, as evidenced by recent statements from Sloan and Orlando.

Obviously a big "ask", but hope it can happen.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by perezfan

I hope you're right...

But it will never happen if PSA is still ruling the roost in the TPG world. A new better company will need to emerge, to render PSA (and it's tens of thousands of mis-graded cards) obsolete. PSA would NEVER take the responsibility to do so themselves, as evidenced by recent statements from Sloan and Orlando.

Obviously a big "ask", but hope it can happen.

I know I'm right. How TPAs or whomever uses the technology and methods is neither here nor there to me. There's also no reason it has to be a commercial endevor-- no need to define this issue in terms of commerce, companies and market share. It's like saying "Which company is going to own carbon dating?" No one owns carbon dating. It's a scientific method written about in textbooks, taught in physics classes and used all over the world.

Also, many authentication tools and methods are inexpensive and many people, and collectors, them. Anyone who examines their card with a $6 black light or $10 handheld microscope can attest to this. There will be scientific tools, some expensive and some not, but it's mostly about knowledge.

Also, people have to differenciate between grading and identifying altereations. Grading and grading critereon are subjective and no AI or compupter program can 'solve' that. Identying altereations on the other hand is scientific, and technology can be applied there.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by drcy

I know I'm right. How TPAs or whomever uses the technology and methods is neither here nor there to me. There's also no reason it has to be a commercial endevor-- no need to define this issue in terms of commerce, companies and market share. It's like saying "Which company is going to own carbon dating?" No one owns carbon dating. It's a scientific method written about in textbooks, taught in physics classes and used all over the world.

Also, many authentication tools and methods are inexpensive and many people, and collectors, them. Anyone who examines their card with a $6 black light or $10 handheld microscope can attest to this. There will be scientific tools, some expensive and some not, but it's mostly about knowledge.

Also, people have to differenciate between grading and identifying altereations. Grading and grading critereon are subjective and no AI or compupter program can 'solve' that. Identying altereations on the other hand is scientific, and technology can be applied there.

I guess we're talking about 2 different things, then...

Most collectors (the people feeding endless sums of money to PSA) seem to want a 3rd party to "validate" their cards. They view the self-appointed experts as "The Voice of God", and get an ego boost, when their card comes back with a highly-assigned grade (even if it's altered).

I'm guessing the use of technology (or any science for that matter) won't change that mindset.... regardless of how easy the identification techniques become. PSA won't ever admit to their mistakes... which involve multi-thousands of graded cards. So if it then becomes up to the collector to determine what is legitimate and what's not, I honestly think most of these people won't even want to know the truth... especially those who are deeply invested and in love with PSA. A pretty sad state of affairs.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by drcy

I firmly believe that, in the future and perhaps near future, all cards from now and retroactively will be able to be identified-- and the hobby and collectors will be able to deal with that.

The idea that altered cards will remain undetected (except for those who don't want them examined) is false.

Though, duly note that there have been instances where cards have been restored, represented and graded as such. With the means to identify all altered cards, this may be a wave of the future.

I strongly agree with this. If/when this happens, whatever upheavals the hobby has endured to date IMO will pale in comparison to the upheaval lurking when it is shown that the great majority of high grade vintage cards have been altered.

IMO those of us who traveled the show circuit in the 60's, 70's and early '80's know this to be the case, as well as those who possess the simple common sense to know that cards over a century old distributed in tobacco and candy packages and handled could not possibly have survived in nrmt-mt or better condition in anything close to the numbers that exist today.

What I will be curious to see is the legal consequence to PSA when a lot of registry people discover that the value of their holdings have been significantly reduced. I would not be surprised to see significant civil litigation against PSA predicated on their business model being an absurdity - the notion that a visual examination lasting a very short time conducted in many instances by inexperienced graders can possibly detect sophisticated card doctoring. Assuming the representations PSA were making as to the capabilities of the services it was selling are not found to have been fraudulently made, we might see a test legal case of when stupidity has reached such a level that as a matter of law it is deemed to be impossible not to have been fraudulently made.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I strongly agree with this. If/when this happens, whatever upheavals the hobby has endured to date IMO will pale in comparison to the upheaval lurking when it is shown that the great majority of high grade vintage cards have been altered.

IMO those of us who traveled the show circuit in the 60's, 70's and early '80's know this to be the case, as well as those who possess the simple common sense to know that cards over a century old distributed in tobacco and candy packages and handled could not possibly have survived in nrmt-mt or better condition in anything close to the numbers that exist today.

What I will be curious to see is the legal consequence to PSA when a lot of registry people discover that the value of their holdings have been significantly reduced. I would not be surprised to see significant civil litigation against PSA predicated on their business model being an absurdity - the notion that a visual examination lasting a very short time conducted in many instances by inexperienced graders can possibly detect sophisticated card doctoring. Assuming the representations PSA were making as to the capabilities of the services it was selling are not found to have been fraudulently made, we might see a test legal case of when stupidity has reached such a level that as a matter of law it is deemed to be impossible not to have been fraudulently made.

And yet huge numbers of sophisticated collectors believed and believe it. How stupid and implausible could it really have been if that was and is the case?

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And yet huge numbers of sophisticated collectors believed and believe it. How stupid and implausible could it really have been if that was and is the case?

IMO most people buy the slab, not the card. So we do not know what they believed. And I suspect many of those who did take the time to think about it probably assumed PSA applied methods a bit more sophisticated and time consuming then in fact they did. Then there are those overtaken by suspended disbelief -- they wanted what they were told to be true so they bought into it.

I also question how sophisticated many of these people are.

Whatever the case, when many people find they have lost large sums of money they are going to be looking for someone to blame. And I think PSA will be held to a higher standard of expertise than the customers they are selling to.

When I spoke to the FBI at the National they seemed well aware as to the limitations of the PSA business model, and I'll be curious to see if one of the results of this situation is that PSA will add some qualifying language as to the limitations of what they can detect.

EDITED to add that I am not saying litigation against PSA will be successful. And as has been noted before, people who buy the slab and not the card to some degree have made their own bed. But I would not be surprised if it gets messy and there is litigation.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

IMO most people buy the slab, not the card.

Maybe more importantly, most people sell the slab not the card. Unless of course the card "appears better than its grade".

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

IMO most people buy the slab, not the card. So we do not know what they believed. And I suspect many of those who did take the time to think about it probably assumed PSA applied methods a bit more sophisticated and time consuming then in fact they did. Then there are those overtaken by suspended disbelief -- they wanted what they were told to be true so they bought into it.

I also question how sophisticated many of these people are.

Whatever the case, when many people find they have lost large sums of money they are going to be looking for someone to blame. And I think PSA will be held to a higher standard of expertise than the customers they are selling to.

When I spoke to the FBI at the National they seemed well aware as to the limitations of the PSA business model, and I'll be curious to see if one of the results of this situation is that PSA will add some qualifying language as to the limitations of what they can detect.

EDITED to add that I am not saying litigation against PSA will be successful. And as has been noted before, people who buy the slab and not the card to some degree have made their own bed. But I would not be surprised if it gets messy and there is litigation.

I'm not sure what type of qualifying language they can use. If their business model is that they can examine a raw card and detect if it's been altered, but in practice they really do not have the ability to detect alterations, what will be their out? That if they miss the alteration entirely, they are not responsible?

That's kind of like a restaurant putting up a sign "if you eat our food, and it happens to contain poison, and you die from it, we are not responsible."

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm not sure what type of qualifying language they can use. If their business model is that they can examine a raw card and detect if it's been altered, but in practice they really do not have the ability to detect alterations, what will be their out? That if they miss the alteration entirely, they are not responsible?

That's kind of like a restaurant putting up a sign "if you eat our food, and it happens to contain poison, and you die from it, we are not responsible."

I suspect if they add something it will because law enforcement will be all over them to do it. The bottom line is that IMO there is a scandal of epic proportions taking place, and likely some people will have serious criminal exposure. The eye at the center of this storm is PSA, as it is they who are slabbing these cards. It seems counterintuitive to me that this will all end without there being any change whatsoever in how PSA conducts its business and/or PSA having legal exposure of its own.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

I suspect if they add something it will because law enforcement will be all over them to do it. The bottom line is that IMO there is a scandal of epic proportions taking place, and likely some people will have serious criminal exposure. The eye at the center of this storm is PSA, as it is they who are slabbing these cards. It seems counterintuitive to me that this will all end without there being any change whatsoever in how PSA conducts its business and/or PSA having legal exposure of its own.

I strongly hope you are right, but PSA's current position is that there is nothing to see here, just a minor blip on the radar screen, and if it weren't for a bunch of chronic complainers on a chatboard, this situation wouldn't even be worth mentioning.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm not sure what type of qualifying language they can use. If their business model is that they can examine a raw card and detect if it's been altered, but in practice they really do not have the ability to detect alterations, what will be their out? That if they miss the alteration entirely, they are not responsible?

That's kind of like a restaurant putting up a sign "if you eat our food, and it happens to contain poison, and you die from it, we are not responsible."

Even as we speak, they are directing people with altered cards to their sellers and trying to duck responsibility.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Even as we speak, they are directing people with altered cards to their sellers and trying to duck responsibility.

I know. And I assume they are being advised by counsel.