What Percentage of Vintage Cards Have Been Graded?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

I'm guessing 20%

If we including all grades, I would guess far less than that, but I have no idea.

[philliesphan]

Also depends a lot on the issue.

If we're talking about Zeenuts, I'd say less than 5%

The number would be higher for T206s and Cracker Jacks, lower for Old Judges.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If we including all grades, I would guess far less than that, but I have no idea.

Yeah, if the question is how many grade 8s and 9s are lying around as bookmarks or in attics (naturally, what other room could they be in?). . . I'd say very few. The CJs for example are 100 years old now. That's a lot of time to be lying around. Possibly still "deserving or attention"? Sure. But unlikely to find "one of the better pasteboards extant" I would think.

[swarmee]

If you're talking pre-1930s baseball only, I would say 10% or less.
Once you add in the 30s, 40s, and 50s, it would drop even further (since your title referred to "vintage").
I'd say 10-20% still not discovered or buried in cellars and attics, awaiting their day in the sun.
Plus the vast majority of pre-1930 cards are in such bad shape (torn/cut/creased) that it's not worth grading them.

[JollyElm]

I honestly believe people always overestimate the number/percentage of cards graded. It doesn't apply so much to the pre-war side, but take me and the friends I grew up with in the 70's-80's, for example. Until right now, through Bobby's group submission, I have never had a single one of my cards graded even though I have many, many thousands of them. And not a single friend of mine has ever had anything graded either. Most still have their cards in shoeboxes and what not in the attic, basically forgotten about. So the percentage of cards graded for us is less than 1%.

My feeling is that there are untold numbers of pre-war cards still hidden away in people's homes. I believe 'regular' people, for the most part, wouldn't automatically look for a grading company when they find grandpa's stuff. Of course, with the internet being what it is these days, making information so readily available, I would definitely conclude that more and more of these same people are realizing that they need to have their cards graded. So the number of cards being graded is surely on a huge upward climb.

[buymycards]

Don't forget about the people like me who remove their prewar cards from their slabs. Some of my cards are graded, mostly SGC's. Most of the PSA and Beckett slabs are opened and the raw cards stay in my collection.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by buymycards

Don't forget about the people like me who remove their prewar cards from their slabs. Some of my cards are graded, mostly SGC's. Most of the PSA and Beckett slabs are opened and the raw cards stay in my collection.

Nothing personal Rick, but I safely assume you are are an extreme rarity in that regard. (Except of course for the the 3 people who will now immediately post to say that they do precisely the same thing.)

To each his own is my golden rule. I don't need to touch cardboard. Happy to hold a plastic slab that keeps away the red wine, Italian sauce, and people's dirty hands.

[nat]

It must vary considerably by set, right? There are probably a few Just So's laying about in grandpa's attic, but given how expensive they are, surely almost all that have turned up have been graded. Right?

Or to take a less extreme example. PSA and SGC together have graded about 275 copies of the N28 Clarkson. (No doubt with some resubmissions in there too.) An ebay search turns up four for sale, three graded and one raw. If only 10% of them had been graded, and there were 2000 odd raw N28 Clarksons out there, surely more than 25% of those for sale on ebay would be raw.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by nat

It must vary considerably by set, right? There are probably a few Just So's laying about in grandpa's attic, but given how expensive they are, surely almost all that have turned up have been graded. Right?

Or to take a less extreme example. PSA and SGC together have graded about 275 copies of the N28 Clarkson. (No doubt with some resubmissions in there too.) An ebay search turns up four for sale, three graded and one raw. If only 10% of them had been graded, and there were 2000 odd raw N28 Clarksons out there, surely more than 25% of those for sale on ebay would be raw.

No, I would expect even a higher percentage, although it is only 1 in ungraded, of cards for sale to be graded. Grading adds value or at least makes cards easier to sell. On the other hand, cards sitting in collections often have no reason to be graded.

In my collection, the only set that i am working on getting completely graded is the one that I am currently working on, t205. My t206 set only has a few cards graded. My 1933 Goudey set has no cards graded, etc. I only send in a few cards for grading each year, mostly cards that i am planning on selling. I mostly buy graded cards, however at the pace that i am going it will be years before I get to 10% of my collection graded.

[Huysmans]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Nothing personal Rick, but I safely assume you are are an extreme rarity in that regard. (Except of course for the the 3 people who will now immediately post to say that they do precisely the same thing.)

To each his own is my golden rule. I don't need to touch cardboard. Happy to hold a plastic slab that keeps away the red wine, Italian sauce, and people's dirty hands.

Italian sauce is gooooooooood.

[SMPEP]

There is no single answer to this question.

Let's take 1923 W572s (which I collect).

PSA Pop report lists 17 graded Ty Cobbs and 18 graded Babe Ruths. SGC has 23 Ty Cobbs and 19 Babe Ruths. I know even Beckett's has at least 1 of each. How many ungraded cards of these stars exist? There are some. But it is less common to see ungraded ones for sale than graded ones. As a WAG, I'd say about 100 or each player (give or take) exists.

But let's compare these players with Mostil, Ray Grimes, John Collins, Elmer Smith and Severied.

Why did I pick these specific guys? They were all originally printed on the same exact ten card strip as Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth. So we know they all started out with the same number of cards. (It's logical to assume Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb would have been thrown away less and there are probably a few more of those cards than the common guys - but this is the closest we can get.)

Mostil - 3 PSA, 6 SGC. Grimes - 2 PSA, 3 SGC. Collins -3 PSA, 1 SGC. Smith - 3 PSA, 10 SGC. Severied - 0 PSA, 5 SGC. Ungraded cards for these guys are plentiful.

So for some common players we have 4-5 cards graded. Some common players have as many as 13. And there are at least 41 Ty Cobbs and 38 Babe Ruths.

So what do we know:

1) Stars for this set (and I expect just about all sets) get graded more often.
2) Grading for commons can vary pretty widely. Between 10x and 4 x less often than the star player (based on this set).


It also shuld be noted that this set isn't terribly popular (except for me and Brian!).

Most of the cards sell for very little money compared to T206s, T205s, cracker jacks, OJs, etc.

So there is less incentive to grade cards in this set compared to others. BUT all of those other sets, had much larger populations produced.


If forced to give an answer - I'd bet major stars and rare cards/pre-war sets are mostly graded. Common players - mostly ungraded. Mainstream sets - more graded. Less mainstream sets - less graded. Rare desired sets - mostly graded.

Cheers,
Patrick