How do you determine a value or asking price for low pop cards?

[philliesfan]

I know I posted scans of these cards previously inquiring as to the value of these cards but I cannot find that thread. I got opinions to their values but I don't recall if they gave me reasons why.

So, how does one determine an asking price for a low pop card. Example, I have a 1955 Bowman #200 Dick Littlefield PSA 9. It is the highest pop and the only 9. There are no 9Q's, or 8.5's and only 25 PSA 8's. I know the PSA guide says $250.00 and we all know their pricing is way off.........I was offered 3 times that amount previously.

I have a 1951 Bowman #224 Billy Cox PSA 9. There are 2-PSA 10's, 8-PSA 9's, 2-PSA 8.5's and 63-PSA 8's.

So, what do you guys take into consideration when setting an asking price? Or do you just find out through EBay or a larger auction house?

Thanks,
Robert

[bn2cardz]

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=171703&

[philliesfan]

Hey Thanks!!!!!!
How do I find these old threads? I have been a member a while but I still don't know how to do some things.
Thanks again!!
Robert

[bn2cardz]

Under the search option you can do an advanced search.

There is a space to search by user and a space to search by keyword. I looked for all threads started by you and then used the keyword 1951. There were only two results.

I didn't have much input to prices, but I figured I could help you find that thread.

[Lordstan]

Robert,
While I don't know about cards, with memorabilia, I usually search the net for comparable items. Sometimes you get lucky and find an exact match, but often I find things that are close and guesstimate from there.
If you haven't already, you may want to ask this question on the card side of the board. You may get more specific answers.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[hcv123]

Values are (not so) simple supply and demand economics. I will expand on this because it helps me in trying to determine asking prices for rarer or low pop cards. The first question I ask is who cares? How many possible buyers are there out there for what I have? If I were able (which I am not - but makes a case for considering an auction that can often give better exposure than ebay or me) to expose the fact that I have the card for sale and create a competitive bidding situation what would the card likely sell for? Clearly the "rarest" (in terms of population you have is the Littlefield card), however there are only 60 people listed on the set registry working on that set and 91 on the '51 Bowman set - that tells me - a card with similar supply (relative rarity) will likely sell for a larger sum in the 51 Bowman set over the 55 Bowman set - except if there is "crazy" competition at the top. Knowing if there are intense competitors who are at the top of the registry who desire a card you have is the hardest variable to "price in". I believe based on looking at the other thread you started, a few people checked out ebay or VCP or card target to check historical selling prices. For cards in similar condition that have changed hands, the pricing is likely to be relatively accurate. As mentioned a card like the 55 Littlefield is a large unknown - who cares today? Are there 2 guys willing to "fight for it"? I don't know. As suggested, an auction may be your best bet for exposure. If you wanted to do it yourself, I would start high (particularly on the Littlefield) and e-mail the holders of the top registry sets to whom your cards would be an upgrade for offering them for your determined price. You'll get a feel really fast if your pricing is realistic or not. At the end of the day, you have some condition rarities that you will probably get some good money for - as long as your making money, be happy! Hope that helps.

[jb67]

You could also email the set registry card collectors. Just click on the higher sets and work your way down and ask them if they are interested. Most of them have email access linked to their registry set. You might be surprised the interest you could stir up.

[Exhibitman]

Nice analysis, Howard.

I face this issue all the time because I collect boxing cards and so many of them are either very rare or very rarely transacted. One wrinkle I'd add is to differentiate between condition rarity and absolute rarity, because the latter gives you a hell of a lot more room to extract a maximum price as a seller. If there are lots of examples of a card but you happen to have a very high grade version, you have a condition rarity and you are vulnerable to substitution [the collectors opting for lower grade instead of paying your price], not to mention expansion of the pop at your level if you are talking postwar mainstream issue. If there just aren't any examples of the card, or very few, in any grade, you have an absolute rarity and a total sellers market. That is why I tend to look at previous sales before anything else. If there is no sales history at all for the card in any grade I know it is an absolute rarity and I can set my price and stick to it. One anecdote: I had a truly rare card that someone wanted to buy. I checked for sales on VCP and found that none of them had transacted. No data at all. I googled it too and found no AH listings. Rare card in the most absolute sense. My method for pricing a card like that is to pick a number high enough that I wouldn't feel bad if the card resold for more. I picked my number, the other guy kept trying to cut it down and I finally told him to either take my offer or go find the card somewhere else, and I would auction off the card publicly with my ask as the minimum bid. He took the offer.

I'd also suggest that you decide why you have the card in question and act accordingly. If you are investing or are a dealer, it is like anything else--profit is a function of rate of return not just absolute return. Buy a deal, get your investment out, get your money into the next deal, and so on. That's how you maximize overall profit, not hanging on to inventory. There are some dealers I see every year at the National with the same cards in hand. Some of them have been offering specific cards for a decade. They stick to their prices but the cards never sell and meanwhile inflation eats into their ask price year over year and they pay to transport the items back and forth every year. As a business model, that sucks. Better to forego a piece of a profit and quickly get your money out and working on other deals. If you are a collector, on the other hand, and you are contemplating a sale of what I call a "core collection" item, my theory in the prior paragraph applies. I didn't want or need to sell the card I referenced; he approached me. That means I do not sell unless I am completely happy with the price.

Another good question to contemplate is whether you would be OK to get stuck with the card. If it is a Honus Wagner or Hank Aaron, not so bad to own a nice rare one, but Billy Cox and Dick Littlefield? Who wants to get stuck with Dick and Cox?

ETA: Yes, I realize I have the mindset and potty mouth of a ten-year-old; I collect friggin' baseball cards.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Nice analysis, Howard.

I face this issue all the time because I collect boxing cards and so many of them are either very rare or very rarely transacted. One wrinkle I'd add is to differentiate between condition rarity and absolute rarity, because the latter gives you a hell of a lot more room to extract a maximum price as a seller. If there are lots of examples of a card but you happen to have a very high grade version, you have a condition rarity and you are vulnerable to substitution [the collectors opting for lower grade instead of paying your price], not to mention expansion of the pop at your level if you are talking postwar mainstream issue. If there just aren't any examples of the card, or very few, in any grade, you have an absolute rarity and a total sellers market. That is why I tend to look at previous sales before anything else. If there is no sales history at all for the card in any grade I know it is an absolute rarity and I can set my price and stick to it. One anecdote: I had a truly rare card that someone wanted to buy. I checked for sales on VCP and found that none of them had transacted. No data at all. I googled it too and found no AH listings. Rare card in the most absolute sense. My method for pricing a card like that is to pick a number high enough that I wouldn't feel bad if the card resold for more. I picked my number, the other guy kept trying to cut it down and I finally told him to either take my offer or go find the card somewhere else, and I would auction off the card publicly with my ask as the minimum bid. He took the offer.

I'd also suggest that you decide why you have the card in question and act accordingly. If you are investing or are a dealer, it is like anything else--profit is a function of rate of return not just absolute return. Buy a deal, get your investment out, get your money into the next deal, and so on. That's how you maximize overall profit, not hanging on to inventory. There are some dealers I see every year at the National with the same cards in hand. Some of them have been offering specific cards for a decade. They stick to their prices but the cards never sell and meanwhile inflation eats into their ask price year over year and they pay to transport the items back and forth every year. As a business model, that sucks. Better to forego a piece of a profit and quickly get your money out and working on other deals. If you are a collector, on the other hand, and you are contemplating a sale of what I call a "core collection" item, my theory in the prior paragraph applies. I didn't want or need to sell the card I referenced; he approached me. That means I do not sell unless I am completely happy with the price.

Another good question to contemplate is whether you would be OK to get stuck with the card. If it is a Honus Wagner or Hank Aaron, not so bad to own a nice rare one, but Billy Cox and Dick Littlefield? Who wants to get stuck with Dick and Cox?

ETA: Yes, I realize I have the mindset and potty mouth of a ten-year-old; I collect friggin' baseball cards.

Excellent additions. All relevant. Especially the absolute rarity vs. condition rarity. I have experienced an irony in terms of personal experience with absolute vs. condition rarities. Supply and demand factors still apply. I have seen condition rarity cards with high demand created by 2 or 3 collectors sell for imo ridiculous amounts of money where true absolute rarities due to a smaller collector base or shallower pockets of collectors sell for a fraction of what imo would be warranted. Example:

1955 Roberto Clemente rookie PSA 10 - Dimitri Young collection - sold for almost 500K. It is the only graded 10 in a population of 3355 graded cards. A 9 of which there are 11 unqualified examples sells for about 30k. Clemente Bazooka complete boxes (excepting 1965 and 1971) of which there are 1-5 graded copies depending on the year and which in my experience are absolute rarities only sell in the low to mid 4 figure range.

I shake my head every time I see the dealers with the same inventory that you refer to. They must be independently wealthy and set up at the shows "for fun" :-)

[Exhibitman]

There is another risk to being a piggy. Every year there is this one card a dealer has at $900; I was willing to pay and offered $500. He rejected it and it never, ever sells, so I ask again every year. This year I won't be asking again because one popped up on eBay and I got it for under $500.

[hcv123]

Get Slaughtered

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

There is another risk to being a piggy. Every year there is this one card a dealer has at $900; I was willing to pay and offered $500. He rejected it and it never, ever sells, so I ask again every year. This year I won't be asking again because one popped up on eBay and I got it for under $500.