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  #1  
Old 07-27-2018, 09:27 PM
Aquarian Sports Cards Aquarian Sports Cards is offline
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Default First player to reach 3000 hits not to make the HOF?

I nominate Nick Markakis. More than reasonable chance at 3k hits (will have about 2250 by the end of this season, turns 35 after season is over) no shot at HOF.

Anyone else?

EDIT: Oh and it's not a popular sentiment, but Ichiro shouldn't be a Hall of Famer, but he will be.
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Last edited by Aquarian Sports Cards; 07-27-2018 at 09:35 PM.
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  #2  
Old 07-27-2018, 10:36 PM
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For a while, I thought Starlin Castro was a sure thing, given how young he started.

I honestly don't know. Nobody else close enough to, or over 2,000 hits with a realistic shot at 3,000.
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Old 07-28-2018, 12:29 AM
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When he comes back, Robinson Cano still has a shot. He currently has 2,417 hits and he's 35.

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Old 07-28-2018, 05:05 AM
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Rafael Palmiero will never make the HOF.
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Old 07-28-2018, 07:47 AM
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Rafael Palmiero will never make the HOF.
Good call, forgot he got to 3000
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Old 07-28-2018, 06:33 PM
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When he comes back, Robinson Cano still has a shot. He currently has 2,417 hits and he's 35.

Steve


Nope. He decided to take a different kind of shot instead. What an idiot!
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Old 07-28-2018, 05:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards View Post
I nominate Nick Markakis. More than reasonable chance at 3k hits (will have about 2250 by the end of this season, turns 35 after season is over) no shot at HOF.

Anyone else?

EDIT: Oh and it's not a popular sentiment, but Ichiro shouldn't be a Hall of Famer, but he will be.
I don't know that he has a "reasonable chance." We can play with the numbers a variety of ways to point out what he would need to average each season to get to 3,000, but a basic projection would be 150 hits per year for the next five years. Anything less than five years seems totally unrealistic, given what he would need to average each season.

That is a lot of hits in his late 30s for a guy who has never had more than 191 hits in a year (that was at age 23). Many/most guys hit a wall production wise in their mid to late 30s. It's not at all unusual for a guy that age to go from being a productive, everyday player to batting .220 in a platoon over the course of a single offseason.

If he was at 2,600-2,700 hits after this season, I think then he would have a reasonable chance. I think he is too far away from 3,000 for his age, There is a definite difference in the quality of players in the 3,000 hit club and some of the guys in the 2,700-2,800 range: Omar Vizquel (2,877), Harold Baines (2,866), Johnny Damon (2,769), Rusty Staub (2,716),
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Old 07-28-2018, 07:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim65 View Post
Rafael Palmiero will never make the HOF.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bored5000 View Post
I don't know that he has a "reasonable chance." We can play with the numbers a variety of ways to point out what he would need to average each season to get to 3,000, but a basic projection would be 150 hits per year for the next five years. Anything less than five years seems totally unrealistic, given what he would need to average each season.

That is a lot of hits in his late 30s for a guy who has never had more than 191 hits in a year (that was at age 23). Many/most guys hit a wall production wise in their mid to late 30s. It's not at all unusual for a guy that age to go from being a productive, everyday player to batting .220 in a platoon over the course of a single offseason.

If he was at 2,600-2,700 hits after this season, I think then he would have a reasonable chance. I think he is too far away from 3,000 for his age, There is a definite difference in the quality of players in the 3,000 hit club and some of the guys in the 2,700-2,800 range: Omar Vizquel (2,877), Harold Baines (2,866), Johnny Damon (2,769), Rusty Staub (2,716),
I understand your point, but he's been so amazingly consistent and healthy that, while a late 30's drop off is certainly a real possibility, I think 180 hits each of the next two or three years is equally possible giving him room for even a fairly rapid decline later. If he gets 360 over the next two years then he only needs 390 more in three seasons to get there by age 39. I could easily see a scenario like 180, 180, 150, 120, 120. If his decline were more gradual you could see something like 180, 165, 150, 135, 120, which still gets him there.

I did the math and thought an average of 150 hits per, while not a gimme, was reasonably possible, that's what actually led to the thread!
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Last edited by Aquarian Sports Cards; 07-28-2018 at 07:54 AM.
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  #9  
Old 07-28-2018, 08:25 AM
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I understand your point, but he's been so amazingly consistent and healthy that, while a late 30's drop off is certainly a real possibility, I think 180 hits each of the next two or three years is equally possible giving him room for even a fairly rapid decline later. If he gets 360 over the next two years then he only needs 390 more in three seasons to get there by age 39. I could easily see a scenario like 180, 180, 150, 120, 120. If his decline were more gradual you could see something like 180, 165, 150, 135, 120, which still gets him there.

I did the math and thought an average of 150 hits per, while not a gimme, was reasonably possible, that's what actually led to the thread!
I get what you are saying; it is an interesting debate. I just think it is really dicey to project health and production for guys age 35+.

On one of the other message boards I post on, I remember there being a huge debate for how many hits Derek Jeter would finish with. Jeter had a great year as a 38 year old in 2012 with 216 hits (over 3,300 hits through his age 38 season). Some of the people in that discussion were projecting him for 4,000 hits based on that 2012 season. Most people in the thread thought it was a given that he would at least get to Hank Aaron at 3,771 for third all-time.

The following year, he played in only 17 games. Two years after that great season, he retired. I know that is just one anecdotal example, but Markakis still seems really far away to me.
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  #10  
Old 07-28-2018, 08:29 AM
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If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.
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Old 07-28-2018, 08:36 AM
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Other than clear steroid cases, is Sheffield the only one with 500 HR not in?
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Old 07-28-2018, 10:53 AM
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Other than clear steroid cases, is Sheffield the only one with 500 HR not in?
Sheffield is a clear steroid case too though.
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  #13  
Old 07-28-2018, 12:59 PM
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Other than clear steroid cases, is Sheffield the only one with 500 HR not in?
Sheffield is an admitted steroid user. He used the "clear" and the "cream" with Bonds. Fred McGriff with 493 has the most home runs by a "clean" player not in the HoF.
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Old 07-28-2018, 08:38 AM
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If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.
Well before he got to 3000 Bill James called Biggio the best player in baseball, and did a whole analysis showing why he was better than Griffey. The master of small ball.
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Old 07-28-2018, 08:42 AM
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If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.
500 HR too. He is clearly in if baseball forgives the roids.
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Old 07-28-2018, 10:52 AM
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If Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits though, will he look more like a HOFer? Look at Craig Biggio. Take away his last 2 seasons where he was a replacement level player and he has 2795 hits, a 112 OPS+, 67.2 WAR and 54.5 JAWS. Does he make the HOF? Is he better than Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich? Guys that got 2.9% and 2.6% of the HOF vote and were off the ballot in 1 year.

Rafael Palmeiro isn't in the HOF because of steroids. If Bonds or Clemens gets in, that will open the gates for other steroids guys like Palmeiro. Rafael certainly has as good of a case as Biggio if we ignore the cheating.
Biggio doesn't belong in the Hall really. Classic accumulator. I think Whitaker and Grich were both more deserving. So 3000 probably played a sizable role in getting him in. That being said, Markakis doesn't even compare all that well with Biggio so I don't think 3000 would put him over the top.
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Old 09-07-2018, 08:55 PM
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Biggio doesn't belong in the Hall really. Classic accumulator. I think Whitaker and Grich were both more deserving. So 3000 probably played a sizable role in getting him in. That being said, Markakis doesn't even compare all that well with Biggio so I don't think 3000 would put him over the top.
Is it Grich's .266 average that impresses you? He probably could have spent a few more years 'accumulating'. Whitaker 'accumulated' for 19 years as opposed to Biggio's 20, but I don't think another year would have helped much.
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Old 08-01-2018, 07:27 AM
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I don't know that he has a "reasonable chance." We can play with the numbers a variety of ways to point out what he would need to average each season to get to 3,000, but a basic projection would be 150 hits per year for the next five years. Anything less than five years seems totally unrealistic, given what he would need to average each season.

That is a lot of hits in his late 30s for a guy who has never had more than 191 hits in a year (that was at age 23). Many/most guys hit a wall production wise in their mid to late 30s. It's not at all unusual for a guy that age to go from being a productive, everyday player to batting .220 in a platoon over the course of a single offseason.

If he was at 2,600-2,700 hits after this season, I think then he would have a reasonable chance. I think he is too far away from 3,000 for his age, There is a definite difference in the quality of players in the 3,000 hit club and some of the guys in the 2,700-2,800 range: Omar Vizquel (2,877), Harold Baines (2,866), Johnny Damon (2,769), Rusty Staub (2,716),

no way Nick will have another healthy year as well. Funny how one year can erase years and years of questionable health.. Ryan Zimmerman last year erased all of those unhealthy years and look at him this year...health issue.

Lets have a guy have back to back good years when they are in their 30s before we project another 4 or so years..
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Old 08-01-2018, 09:57 AM
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He's 34 and almost 1,000 hits shy of 3,000. I don't even see a remote chance he reaches 3,000. He hasn't even gotten 900 hits in the past 5 seasons while in his prime. Is there any reason to think he'll be an every day player till he's 40? How many of those are there?

Last edited by packs; 08-01-2018 at 10:02 AM.
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Old 08-01-2018, 10:18 AM
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For 10 points no cheating name the only player under 30 with 1500 hits. It isn't Altuve.
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Old 07-31-2018, 08:55 PM
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Oh and it's not a popular sentiment, but Ichiro shouldn't be a Hall of Famer, but he will be.
What exactly is the case against Ichiro being in the Hall? Nat in a previous post lists three weak points on his resume (low power for an OF, not many walks, played in Japan for most of his 20s) but none of those individually or cumulatively come close to outweighing the stuff in his favor. He just seems like a no-brainer first ballot guy with like 95-97% of the vote to me.
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Old 08-01-2018, 05:11 AM
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What exactly is the case against Ichiro being in the Hall? Nat in a previous post lists three weak points on his resume (low power for an OF, not many walks, played in Japan for most of his 20s) but none of those individually or cumulatively come close to outweighing the stuff in his favor. He just seems like a no-brainer first ballot guy with like 95-97% of the vote to me.
Agree completely with this^^^^

Also Fred McGriff gets no love. I feel like he is a HOFer, 94 strike probably cost him the 500 HR club, and unfortunately for him he played in the Steroid Era and was never associated with PEDs
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Old 08-01-2018, 01:51 PM
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What exactly is the case against Ichiro being in the Hall? Nat in a previous post lists three weak points on his resume (low power for an OF, not many walks, played in Japan for most of his 20s) but none of those individually or cumulatively come close to outweighing the stuff in his favor. He just seems like a no-brainer first ballot guy with like 95-97% of the vote to me.
He played like he was in the dead ball era. He had some amazing abilities, but the way he used them weren't necessarily the best for winning baseball. He was literally dropping balls in front of outfielders almost every time he made contact. It led to tons of hits and very few extra bases, advanced runners or RBI's.

In his lead off at bat or when he was at bat with nobody on base he was a superior player, although even then if he was on 2nd (or even third with his speed he should have had a lot more triples) he would have scored even more often.

Any time there was a man on base he hurt his team. Balls dropping in front of outfielders mean a guy on first usually only gets to second and a guy on second can't score. Not all singles are created equal, outfielders were almost always coming in on his hits setting them up to throw.

People compare him to Boggs and Gwynn which is crazy. They both had a TON more extra base hits than Ichiro and neither of them will ever be mistaken for a power hitter. Plus I hate when a guy hangs on at the end of his career for milestone numbers. Ichiro has been pretty useless since 2010 if I recall correctly.

If you like WAR he had 2 superstar seasons and 5 additional all-star seasons (again trusting memory here) that pales in comparison to Boggs or Gwynn.

He is, to me, Hall of Very Good. Maybe if he hadn't lost 3 or 4 years of his prime to Japan the case would be different, especially if they were superstar caliber seasons like his best two.
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Old 08-01-2018, 02:00 PM
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If there is a stat for the batter with the highest percentage of his hits being singles, I bet Ichiro is at the top.

Ps It's 81 percent, Rose was 75 or so.
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Old 08-01-2018, 02:12 PM
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I believe Pete Rose has the most singles out of anybody. Was he a better or worse hitter than Ichiro? For posterity, they both had 10 seasons of 200 or more hits. The only difference is Ichiro's ten seasons were consecutive.

Last edited by packs; 08-01-2018 at 02:13 PM.
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Old 08-01-2018, 02:13 PM
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Rose's OPS was 27 points higher. 746 doubles to Ichiro's 362.

Shall we play baseball reference?

Rose

Hall of Fame Statistics





Black Ink
Batting - 64 (14), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 239 (26), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 311 (15), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 55 (65), Average HOFer ≈ 50


Ichiro


Hall of Fame Statistics





Black Ink
Batting - 43 (34), Average HOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 142 (114), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 234 (30), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 44 (128), Average HOFer ≈ 50
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Old 08-13-2018, 11:44 PM
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If there is a stat for the batter with the highest percentage of his hits being singles, I bet Ichiro is at the top.

Ps It's 81 percent, Rose was 75 or so.


I think the all-time record for singles ratio is still the Phillies Roy Thomas. Thomas has lots of cool obscure records because all he ever did was hit singles and walk at an absurd ratio. He had 1,537 hits, 1,377 of which were singles, or 89.5%.

He also played in 110 games or more in only 9 seasons, but led the league in walks 7 times. He played in only 121 games in 1907, but still led the league. Not a Hall of Fame candidate, but a fun player.
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Old 08-01-2018, 09:10 PM
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He played like he was in the dead ball era. He had some amazing abilities, but the way he used them weren't necessarily the best for winning baseball. He was literally dropping balls in front of outfielders almost every time he made contact. It led to tons of hits and very few extra bases, advanced runners or RBI's.
OK so we can add "didn't get many extra base hits or RBI" to the list of his drawbacks. That still doesn't get us anywhere near to outweighing the positives on his resume though. He was a leadoff guy, he stole more than 500 bases and scored more than 100 runs for eight seasons in a row, so obviously he was contributing something of exceptional value even if it didn't translate into a bunch of RBI


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Any time there was a man on base he hurt his team. Balls dropping in front of outfielders mean a guy on first usually only gets to second and a guy on second can't score. Not all singles are created equal, outfielders were almost always coming in on his hits setting them up to throw.
Just to be clear: getting a bloop single with a runner on base doesn't hurt your team. Its not as good as getting a double obviously, but is preferable to recording an out. A guy getting a bloop single 1/3 of the time in that situation is arguably preferable to a guy hitting a line drive to right 1/4 of the time.

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People compare him to Boggs and Gwynn which is crazy. They both had a TON more extra base hits than Ichiro and neither of them will ever be mistaken for a power hitter. Plus I hate when a guy hangs on at the end of his career for milestone numbers. Ichiro has been pretty useless since 2010 if I recall correctly.
Agree about the Boggs and Gwynn comparison being inaccurate.

I'm neutral about the hanging on at the end of the career for milestones since a ton of HOFers have done that. Its basically irrelevant to HOF consideration IMHO - even Ruth hung on longer than he should have.

Also, Ichiro's last years weren't entirely unproductive: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-old-and-good/

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If you like WAR he had 2 superstar seasons and 5 additional all-star seasons (again trusting memory here) that pales in comparison to Boggs or Gwynn.
His career WAR isn't spectacular by HOF standards, nor is it an outlier though as there are a lot of guys with much lower WAR already in, including some big names. His WAR just makes him an average HOFer but I don't think you can use it effectively to put him in the Hall of Very Good, given all the other stuff he has going for him. The numerous records, including important ones, the trailblazer role that he played as the first Japanese position player, and all the other stuff that is too well known to be worth repeating here.

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He is, to me, Hall of Very Good. Maybe if he hadn't lost 3 or 4 years of his prime to Japan the case would be different, especially if they were superstar caliber seasons like his best two.
I think the fact that he played his prime years in Japan just adds to his resume (or at the very least it does not detract from it), he actually played 7 seasons in Japan and won the batting title in each of them. I know they don't give much weight to NPB stats in making HOF decisions, but its an extremely impressive footnote to his career - he managed to squeeze periods of brilliant dominance into not just one but two major leagues.
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Old 08-01-2018, 09:58 PM
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I wouldn't rate him a first tier HOFer, but I think it's beyond any serious question that Ichiro should be in.
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Old 08-02-2018, 08:54 AM
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Will Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez be enshrined in the HOF within the next 10 years?
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Old 08-31-2018, 03:33 PM
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Pete Rose
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