Does Jose Bautista piss you off?

[Robextend]

Rico Petrocelli (Never hit more than 18HR before 1968):
1968 406AB 12HR
1969 535AB 40HR

Davey Johnson (Never hit more than 18HR before 1972):
1972 376AB 5HR
1973 559AB 40HR

Jose Bautista
2009 336AB 13HR
2010 569AB 54HR

Please explain the difference...I am sure I can dig up more examples as well. The point is that these things DO happen. And if you want to accuse Bautista, go ahead and accuse Davey Johnson and Rico Petrocelli as well.

Thanks - Rob

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Robextend

Rico Petrocelli (Never hit more than 18HR before 1968):
1968 406AB 12HR
1969 535AB 40HR

Davey Johnson (Never hit more than 18HR before 1972):
1972 376AB 5HR
1973 559AB 40HR

Jose Bautista
2009 336AB 13HR
2010 569AB 54HR

Please explain the difference...I am sure I can dig up more examples as well. The point is that these things DO happen. And if you want to accuse Bautista, go ahead and accuse Davey Johnson and Rico Petrocelli as well.

Thanks - Rob

OK, Rob, I will explain the difference between what Johnson did and what Bautista has done. Johnson, in contrast to Bautista, was quite a good second baseman for the Orioles, making three all-star teams for them in 1968 through 1970, and batted over .280 three years in a row from 1969 on, when the mound was lowered and the strike zone made much smaller. Now let's see: Did Jose Bautista ever make an all-star team before 2010? Did he ever hit .280 before then? And with regard to Johnson's big homerun surge in 1973--that was the year he was traded to Atlanta, when the Braves still played in Fulton County Stadium, rightfully nicknamed, "the Launching Pad." Bill James had this to say about that stadium's propensity for increasing homerun totals in the context of Hank Aaron:

"...As you can see by the home/road homerun totals, to a considerable
degree Aaron's late-in-life resurgence is a statistical illusion created by
moving from a very poor homerun park, County Stadium in Milwaukee, to a
very good homerun park, Fulton County Stadium in Atlanta. At his peak,
Aaron would have hit 50 homeruns, and probably more than once, had he
been playing in an average homerun park; playing his best years in Atlanta
(or Wrigley Field) he absolutely would have hit more than 60 homeruns in a
season..."

Davey hit 26 of his 43 at Fulton County Stadium in 1973. While he did hit 17 in more neutral parks on the road that year, doubling that to 34 as representing his real, non-park related power surge, is a far, far cry from Bautista's 54 homeruns in 2010, and, as we speak, Bautista's 16 homers in about a fourth of a season or less (given Bautista's games missed to injury this year) and .370 average in 2011. And I don't think anyone would be in danger of confusing even Johnson's '73 stats with Babe Ruth's.

Interesting comparison, though I don't see anything to accuse Johnson of, other than taking advantage of a very favorable homerun park (the Park Factor for Fulton was 115, meaning games played there produced 115% of the runs produced in a neutral park. The infamous Baker Bowl, said to have greatly inflated hall-of-famer Chuch Klein's stats, had a park factor of 113-117 when Klein was in his prime playing half his games there). My assumption would be that Johnson tried to get more loft on the ball after the trade, which, as someone who has played a great deal, I can tell you can be done simply by raising the hitter's back elbow. This puts more loop in the swing, resulting in more flyballs and less line drives. And, as noted in an earlier post, there's nothing to accuse Petrocelli of, other than taking advantage of the obvious difficulty pitchers had in adjusting when he had his big year in '69, the first year they lowered the mound and shrunk the strike zone (you didn't think Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA the year before was all Bob Gibson, did you? He never had another season with an ERA under 2.18 after 1968, and more that were over 3.00 than under for the rest of his career).

One thing that is interesting to think about with regard to Bautista and Gibson is what the latter would have done to dear old Jose had he had the balls to hang so far out over the plate when Bob was pitching that the outside corner was in effect middle-in, as Bautista does now. This is one of the main reasons that this guy really pisses me off. As far as Bob Gibson was concerned, the outside corner of the plate belonged to him. My bet is that Gibson, who was not really a bad guy, just a fiercesome competitor, would have politely buzzed one in close to his chin first, as fair warning. Then, if dear little Jose had the cajones to hold his ground for the next pitch, he would have been sucking his meals through a straw for the next two months! Where are the Gibsons and Drysdales when you need them? You can probably tell that I REALLY don't like this guy!

Love your activity on this one.

Larry

[ls7plus]

Hi, Steve B. Did you know that Cecil Fielder hit 31 homeruns in just 506 at bats playing for Toronto over 4 seasons before his 51 homer season with the Tigers in 1990? Fielder's problem was getting playing time then, not any lack of demonstrated ability. A fellow named Fred McGriff held down the regular first sacker's job when Cecil was with Toronto, and Fred was pretty good. The old crime dog hit 20 homers in just 295 at bats with the Blue Jays in 1987; 34 in 1988, and 36 in 1989. I really don't think Cecil falls into the Bautista mold, or even comes close.

I will give you Darrell Evans as a sporadic homerun hitter, consistently hitting in double figures in homers, though only twice with 40 or more, and twice in the 30's. I hardly think that equates to mimicking Bonds on his best juiced days, however. And Ted Kluzewski (Big Klu) did indeed have a power surge, but was never a marginal player like Bautista prior thereto, as he had seasons of batting .309 four years before his first 40 homer season; 25 homers, 111 RBI and .307 three years before; 16 homeruns, 86 RBI, .320 one year before. He is like Bautista in the limited respect that his first really big year came at age 29, but that's all.

Jack Clark demonstrated pretty consistent power from the time he was in his second season, at 22 years of age, when he hit 25 homeruns and drove in 98 runs. His main problem was staying healthy, as he had only three seasons in which he played 150 games or more in his entire career. No, no Jose Bautista there either. Try as you might, you will find that the Bautista career progression is not one that occurs in nature. As I said earlier, there were only seven guys who had hit 54 homeruns or more prior to 1990, and none of them stumbled around looking like Ron Swoboda's twin brother for years and years before they achieved that status.

Larry

[Robextend]

Ok, so there are reasons and explanations for everyone else except Bautista...I got it now. I just want to make sure that this is an argument I had no chance at winning. Thanks.

[Robextend]

I guess none of these articles matter at all:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/03/sp...3bautista.html

http://www.dominicantoday.com/dr/for...Home-Run-Binge

http://www.aolnews.com/2010/08/24/al...ome-run-binge/

[steve B]

I agree about crowding the plate and what a pitcher should do about it. The rules we have now encourage offense by limiting how a pitcher can claim the plate. Hell, I've pitched guys way inside in softball if they were crowding the plate. Mostly because most of them can't hit an inside pitch- lots of grounders off the handle is a good thing. (Note- don't bother trying this against a guy who's played a lot of cricket the bat control for hitting bad pitches is incredible) Once they back off, it's all outside. Get e'm moving around in the box, and very few can hit at all.

Since it seems to be the Ruth comparison lets look at it from a ab/hr angle

Ruth is number 1 at ab/hr among the non-steroid crowd. 8.48 in 1920 and 3 other times under 10
The only others under 10 and not suspect are Thome, Mantle, Maris and Greenberg.
the entire rest of the 20 seasons under 10 are Sosa, McGwire, and Bonds.

Bautista last year was at 10.54 only good enough for 33rd. His previous seasons were all around 25 ab/hr This year he's only at around 20 ab/hr, hardly a Babe Ruth type number. The top 500 ends just a hair above 15.

At #37 there's Carlos Pena. from 01-05 his best hr/ab was around 14 in 05. His only other under 20 was a bit over 17 with most seasons around 20. Batting average .240's,.250s The less said about 06 the better. For the Red Sox he was horrible, and hardly played.
Then in 07 he hits 46hr .282 average - 10.65 ab/hr!
Followed by a return to ab/hr in the high teens the next few years

Babe Ruth had a season at 10.57 - 1930 36th
and one at 10.85 - 1929 46th

So there's your guy. Carlos Pena 6 years of below average to marginal performance followed by a Babe Ruth ish year.
Then followed by a few seasons of very good but not spectacular performance.

This is actually a lot of fun.

And if the Sox had ever signed Kingman Bonds enhanced 73 would be thought of as merely a nice try. A righty that hits almost exclusively gargantuan popups playing in Fenway! That would have been incredible.

Steve B


So there's

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Davey hit 26 of his 43 at Fulton County Stadium in 1973. While he did hit 17 in more neutral parks on the road that year, doubling that to 34 as representing his real, non-park related power surge Larry

So would 46 be Bautista's "real, non-park related" 162-game home run average for the last 1.25 seasons? Bautista has 41 homers in his last 95 home games compared to just 29 in his last 101 road games. His 162-game adjusted totals for the last 1.25 seasons are 70 homers, .295 at home; 46 homers, .263 on the road.

[ALR-bishop]

Steve---how do you spot those Cricket Guys ? .

I just got back from a trip that included India and Sri Lanka. Saw some cricket. I confess I don't understand the game well, but they are crazy about it over there

[steve B]

The cricket guy I pitched to is one of my wifes coworkers. From India, and while not a great cricketer I gather he played a lot.
I threw him a pitch that went wrong, ended up head high and way inside. I swear he hit it off his forehead. Line drive down the LF line for a double. And not a bailing out accident hit either. I figured I'd be safe pitching him high since cricket piches are low. High low inside outside, it really didn't matter where I pitched it. He hit it, and hit it fairly hard. A much tougher out than anyone I've pitched to, including the occasional guy who played college ball.

And yeah it's only low level softball. I've played modified pitch and slow pitch plus some pickup games with a very wide range of skills. The people that haven't played or don't play well, I try to make it as easy as possible, The people that actually have some athletic skill I try to make it harder.

Steve B

[ls7plus]

You know, you guys and your persistence may be beginning to pay off re my attitude towards him as a player. I do believe your posts on his behalf have been truly admirable. Maybe just a smidgeon of change for now!

I still wouldn't let him crowd the plate with his arms hanging out over it, though, and I don't think anyof the guys I played with in high school, summer leagues and even most recently over 30 fast-pitch hard ball league (while in my early to mid-forties) would either. He literally converts the outside corner to middle-in. Bring back the approach of the '60's pitchers to deal with that!

Best regards, and thanks to everyone who contributed to this discussion.

Larry

[Volod]

Larry, couldn't help but think of you as I watched Sports Center today recapping the Jays-Astros game, in which Bautista hit a couple of dingers. C'mon guy, he's just a late-blooming hitter. MLB history is full of them - there's no need to dredge up complex formulas to try to prove that he is somehow juiced. Occam's Razor. He's just pissing you off, like he is opposing pitchers. You're in Michigan, but what are you - a Yankees or Bosox fan?