How do you think it all shakes out

[Rhotchkiss]

I do not intend to express my opinion about whether anyone is guilty, complicit, etc. with regard to all the recent revelations. Rather, I prefer to get feedback/predictions on how this will all shake out.

Anyone who has been on the board in the past 2 weeks knows all about the Gary Moser alteration scandal. With it has come comments and accusations directed against PWCC, PSA, SGC, VCP and even Leon/Net54 for advertising. Many altered cards have been outed, and yet others have been implicated as being "bad" despite no obvious signs of alteration (I have a card that fits that exact bill which is going back to PSA for review). Some people are ignoring this whole thing, others have gone "Chicken Little" and are claiming the sky is falling, and the range of opinions is wide and varied. I would like to know what you think will happen when its all said and done -- how will it all shake out?

Here is what I think: In sum, I think very little will happen/change.

The TPGs: They will got off almost scott-free. I think the TPGs will have to live up to guarantees, which could hurt financially in the short-term and affect stock prices, but I think they will survive and thrive, and I think by fall people will be buying high grade PSA flips for their registry sets, as if nothing ever happened. This is for two reasons: (1) We all assume everyone knows about this. They do not. Just like the far left or right politicos who spend all their time on like-minded websites and thus think everyone thinks the way they do, we on these boards represent a tiny population in a fish bowl and may not recognize that most people don't know or don't care about this whole thing. (2) I think there is too much money tied up in PSA and BGS cards for people to make a huge push for retribution/justice. Too big to fail.

I do think TPGs will learn from this mistake -- hire better graders, spend more time, dedicate experienced graders to more high-dollar cards, black-listing bad submitters and procedures for bouncing bulk submissions with a certain percentage of altered cards, etc. But not because they want to do the right thing, but because Wall Street demands it. And, eventually, they will get lax and bad stuff will happen again sometime down the line.

So I think there will be some financial fall out, which could lead to process improvements, which is a good thing. But I do not think any TPG will "go down". Perhaps one or two employees get fired as sacrificial lambs for press purposes, but PSA and BGS will be at the national, with lines out the door, at the 2020 National. The pity is that, IMO, SGC is SO superior to both.

PWCC: I think their brand will take a hit and one they may not be able to fully recover from, at least not for a while. To many, PWCC auctions will be forever suspicious, for both allegations of shilling and alterations, and they may lose bidders and thus consignors. But for the reasons above, they will survive and likely eventually again thrive. They too will take a financial hit and that will lead them to improve procedures, which will take hold for a while but eventually relapse. If the TPGs get a bruise, PWCC gets a few cuts needing stitches and a broken bone.

That said, I think the biggest risk here is that all this publicity has shone a bright light to certain practices -- such as the Vault for potential state tax avoidance and the alleged facilitating of fraud. For this, I think PWCC will forever be under the microscope of collectors and the authorities, and must be mindful of this as they move forward. If this slip is not the one that does them in, the next (if it happens) could signal curtains. In other words, i think PWCC will have to tread lightly and find some serious humility and integrity in the years to come. They best make sure their practices are right and tight going forward.

Gary Moser: I think he (and maybe a few other "doctors") gets convicted of crimes and serves a jail sentence, where he is violated daily, forever "altering" they way he goes to the bathroom. No, for real, this guy is toast and will serve time, and will forever be shunned from the industry. But, a leopard does not change its spots, and this leopard will be back in some form or another and will get caught again.

VCP/Net54 and other PWCC advertisers: Nothing happens. And nothing should happen.

The Rest: Some people will lose money and have to write off the cost of cards they have acquired. Other cards will be devalued as a result of guilt by association. Most people will NOT turn in cards they think or know are altered and will try to sell them and most of the bad cards (the majority of which have not been outed or discovered) will continue to circulate. Within months we will all go back to being purposely ignorant of bad actors and alterations and we will all fool ourselves into thinking all is well because the TPGs say so.

Some people will check the blowout lists and other places where altered cards have been posted. Others may demand records of provenance or be evermore mindful of viewing cards under loops. But those will be the minority. For most, it will be business as usual by September; and for some, it has always been business as usual.

That said, what people are doing here and Blowout is important and it is making a difference. It may not topple the whole regime, but it has opened many eyes and our "hobby" will be better for it. We, the collectors, must police the industry and stay vigilant. But we must also be mindful that this does not become the French revolution where heads roll just because they have eyes on them and a finger pointed. Thank you to everyone who has put in so much time and effort uncovering and publicizing this fiasco - keep up the great work and how can we help?

How do you think it will shake out?

[T_Hamilton]

Great write up... here is how I see it playing out.

TPGs - will take a hit and have to rework standards and procedures if they want to stat afloat. They have a deep pockets thought, so I think they take a hit but survive

PWCC - i cant not imagine how this business stays afloat. Once this train, which seems pretty isolated to Net54, BO, sportscardradio and a few others pieces in the Oregonian gains some national steam and publicity, picks up speed they will be toast. Hard to imagine anyone owning big, valuable cards consigns to PWCC (unless those cards are altered and they are trying to sell them). We have just scratched the surface on this scandal... we have a long way to go and each day is another day of computational damage and cost for PWCC. Adios and good riddance.

Gary Moser - death penalty

The rest - I am strongly considering selling out completely. While I love collecting it is getting to a point where it is not worth the headache. I could see myself going back to the very beginning of collecting, putting together hand collated sets, busting newly released was and enjoying the more simpler parts of the hobby vs. dropping thousands of dollars on Ruths, Cobbs and JJs which I have spent the last 5 years doing. I could see others following suit...

One thing I am happy for is this community. I am sure there are a few bad apples lurking among us but there are guys on here who have taken time out of their personal professional lives to give advice and lend a hand. Specially, Orlando, Jeffrey Lichtman and Greg from BOTN.

[ullmandds]

nice write up...here's what I HOPE will happen:

PWCC will be toast...and brent will do jail time

Moser will be charged and arrested and WILL do jail time

PSA will be forced to bring their techniques into the 21st century and will become better at what they purport to provide

Leon/Net54 will try to do what is best for the hobby he claims to love and not whats best for his wallet

[Tabe]

I see this being a blip for a couple months and then disappearing. The vast majority of collectors and PWCC/PSA/etc customers will not even be aware of this issue. I don't see any jail time for anyone and only a short-term financial hit for anyone. Gary Moser will continue his operation, he'll just hide his submissions better.

[drcy]

I think PWCC is in big trouble, and a couple of people may find themselves in legal trouble. Their reputation may go the way of Mastro.

PSA will be hurt but will be okay. There will be grading changes.

I think this will damage high grade cards in the hobby, as there will always be serious questions about them. I think for a lot of super high grade Pre-War cards, and many other cards, the rote opinion is that the card is or likely is altered.

I think these "conservation" and "hobby maturation" theorists who post on the boards are full of it. If a card has been "conserved" the conservation has to be labeled. The Comic grading, which may be fine with comic collectors, does not apply to baseball cards and never will.

I bet in the future there will be real technology to identify altered cards, and cards that have been altered will be identified.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Tabe

I see this being a blip for a couple months and then disappearing. The vast majority of collectors and PWCC/PSA/etc customers will not even be aware of this issue. I don't see any jail time for anyone and only a short-term financial hit for anyone. Gary Moser will continue his operation, he'll just hide his submissions better.

Very hard to take you seriously when I'm laughing at your profile pic.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Very hard to take you seriously when I'm laughing at your profile pic.

HAHAHA.

You didn't ask but you're gonna get the story anyway...

Roughly a decade ago, Burger King partnered up with Fox and did a "Simpsonize Me" web site. You submitted a picture of yourself and it would turn you into a Simpsons character. Or YOUR FREAKING CO-WORKER submitted a picture of you and then EMAILS IT TO YOUR ENTIRE TEAM. Guess which happened with me Anyway, I took a look at it and, well, it looks a lot like me in a caricature kind of way. And so it has become my avatar on most message boards.

[barrysloate]

What I would like to see out of this is the third party graders getting significantly better at what they do. The idea of examining cards and rejecting those that are altered, and being an unbiased third party opinion for grading, should be lauded by every collector. But the way they actually do this is nothing short of atrocious. If they don't start getting exceptionally skilled at detecting alterations, and extremely accurate in grading baseball cards, then the hobby has no use for them. Screw the set registry and let them go out of business. I hope they take this seriously but I am not holding my breath.

And if they have to reimburse every collector who has an altered card in a holder, they will go bankrupt halfway through the process. So they are going to lawyer up and fight these claims very strongly. I have no idea how that will end up but it may leave many collectors frustrated and angry.

PWCC will either straighten up or lose a lot of business. And card doctors need to be prosecuted. It might be difficult to convict them, but we shall see.

Overall, I suspect we will all be pretty disappointed at how little changes, and high grade cards will likely continue to set world records as buyers won't be able to throw money at them fast enough.

[Exhibitman]

I don't think any of us can really tell what will happen with Moser, PWCC and the other card doctors outed by these recent revelations. I would hope that some branch of law enforcement somewhere will take action against them but I am not holding my breath. I've delivered even worse financial fraud cases to local prosecutors and have only one scumbag's scalp to show for it thus far. They don't like white collar crime, especially when the proof is specialized and esoteric.

PSA will probably have to increase its loss reserves substantially and will take some short term financial pain, but will go on as the main TPG brand. Too much registry participation and investment (emotional and financial) to realistically assume otherwise. AHs and Dealers will stay with TPGs because it is financially expedient. PSA will somehow find a way to pass on the costs to us because it can. Lunch at the National will be as well attended as ever, the food will be inedible swill, the speakers self-serving and dull, and the give-away will sell on eBay. Same as it ever was.

Some collectors will shift away from big dollar purchases based solely on the flips; I know quite a few collectors who vow to stop upgrading their registry sets and are considering liquidating the ones they have. I suspect that sentiment will ebb over time. Some collectors will stop sending in cards to play grade lotto. I suspect that will ebb over time as well. Ditto those who vow to go with raw cards.


In short, I don't see much changing overall.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Tabe

I see this being a blip for a couple months and then disappearing. The vast majority of collectors and PWCC/PSA/etc customers will not even be aware of this issue. I don't see any jail time for anyone and only a short-term financial hit for anyone. Gary Moser will continue his operation, he'll just hide his submissions better.

I am so depressed to have to express this... But I too think little (if anything) will ever happen. The Moser corruption dates back over 15 years, and nothing was ever done. Maybe Moser will now do a brief jail stint, but PSA and PWCC have deeper pockets to fight it. Just not enough people are aware of this matter (outside of Net54 and BO). I wish we had a better vehicle to mass-publicize all of the corruption.

I have posted more in the last 2 weeks than I ever have on the Main Board, with the faint hope of getting the word out there. I pray that law enforcement sees enough of our threads to actually do something, but am not optimistic. Most people outside of the hobby just don't care, and the heavy hitters within the hobby are too protective of their "assets" to want any positive change.

PSA's pathetic Letter confirmed they do not care about the hobby or hobbyists... just their shareholders and profits. They positioned themselves as "the victim", rather than owning up to any mistakes whatsoever.

So perhaps the best thing we can do is to stop funneling money to these people, as it just feeds more into their power. I personally will be cracking out every PSA Card I have, and will never submit a card to them. When the time comes to liquidate, my cards will all go to someone like Greg Morris... RAW.

[Goudey77]

From the consumer end only those affected and have skin in the game will be impacted by the headaches of returns to sellers and or reviews by TPG's. Bystanders will continue to chime in on social media.

I think it is very clear from the statements given that there isn't a clear stance on liability. The business side is not impacted. This will all disappear in a few months and those consumers with skin in the game will be exhausted and or still fighting their claims independently.

Nothing changes with TPG's or consignment groups.

It will take deep pockets to bring a case on behalf of consumers at this point. Who's willing to step up and provide their legal services?

[WhenItWasAHobby]

Very little will happen except an official banishment from the card doctor, which only means he will use fronts and aliases to circumvent the ban and continue his work.

PSA has a well established history of sweeping every scandal under the rug with virtually no transparency. As I recall Joe Orlando once stated that only 5% of the collectors read message boards, so they operate on the "ignorance is bliss" business model.

[Fballguy]

Originally Posted by perezfan

I personally will be cracking out every PSA Card I have, and will never submit a card to them.

I have to believe there are many, many people who feel the same way. How many times do you give the same company the benefit of the doubt?

Bring their techniques into the 21st century? What does that have to do with anything?

[wondo]

I'm taking a contrarian position. I can see SGC going away - either absorbed / acquired by CLCT or finally closing its doors ala GAI. PSA will flourish with a few bumps.

Moser will continue in some some form (albeit underground) as he has the past 35 years along with an unrelated army of doctors who beat the system.

PWCC will be the scapegoat, go away, perhaps pay the price. Or not.

I'll go on buying cards that I enjoy.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by wondo

I'm taking a contrarian position. I can see SGC going away - either absorbed / acquired by CLCT or finally closing its doors ala GAI. PSA will flourish with a few bumps.

Moser will continue in some some form (albeit underground) as he has the past 35 years along with an unrelated army of doctors who beat the system.

PWCC will be the scapegoat, go away, perhaps pay the price. Or not.

I'll go on buying cards that I enjoy.

Respectfully why do you feel SGC will go away or be acquired by CLCT or Close it’s doors all together?

Thanks

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I do not intend to express my opinion about whether anyone is guilty, complicit, etc. with regard to all the recent revelations. Rather, I prefer to get feedback/predictions on how this will all shake out.

Anyone who has been on the board in the past 2 weeks knows all about the Gary Moser alteration scandal. With it has come comments and accusations directed against PWCC, PSA, SGC, VCP and even Leon/Net54 for advertising. Many altered cards have been outed, and yet others have been implicated as being "bad" despite no obvious signs of alteration (I have a card that fits that exact bill which is going back to PSA for review). Some people are ignoring this whole thing, others have gone "Chicken Little" and are claiming the sky is falling, and the range of opinions is wide and varied. I would like to know what you think will happen when its all said and done -- how will it all shake out?

Here is what I think: In sum, I think very little will happen/change.

The TPGs: They will got off almost scott-free. I think the TPGs will have to live up to guarantees, which could hurt financially in the short-term and affect stock prices, but I think they will survive and thrive, and I think by fall people will be buying high grade PSA flips for their registry sets, as if nothing ever happened. This is for two reasons: (1) We all assume everyone knows about this. They do not. Just like the far left or right politicos who spend all their time on like-minded websites and thus think everyone thinks the way they do, we on these boards represent a tiny population in a fish bowl and may not recognize that most people don't know or don't care about this whole thing. (2) I think there is too much money tied up in PSA and BGS cards for people to make a huge push for retribution/justice. Too big to fail.

I do think TPGs will learn from this mistake -- hire better graders, spend more time, dedicate experienced graders to more high-dollar cards, black-listing bad submitters and procedures for bouncing bulk submissions with a certain percentage of altered cards, etc. But not because they want to do the right thing, but because Wall Street demands it. And, eventually, they will get lax and bad stuff will happen again sometime down the line.

So I think there will be some financial fall out, which could lead to process improvements, which is a good thing. But I do not think any TPG will "go down". Perhaps one or two employees get fired as sacrificial lambs for press purposes, but PSA and BGS will be at the national, with lines out the door, at the 2020 National. The pity is that, IMO, SGC is SO superior to both.

PWCC: I think their brand will take a hit and one they may not be able to fully recover from, at least not for a while. To many, PWCC auctions will be forever suspicious, for both allegations of shilling and alterations, and they may lose bidders and thus consignors. But for the reasons above, they will survive and likely eventually again thrive. They too will take a financial hit and that will lead them to improve procedures, which will take hold for a while but eventually relapse. If the TPGs get a bruise, PWCC gets a few cuts needing stitches and a broken bone.

That said, I think the biggest risk here is that all this publicity has shone a bright light to certain practices -- such as the Vault for potential state tax avoidance and the alleged facilitating of fraud. For this, I think PWCC will forever be under the microscope of collectors and the authorities, and must be mindful of this as they move forward. If this slip is not the one that does them in, the next (if it happens) could signal curtains. In other words, i think PWCC will have to tread lightly and find some serious humility and integrity in the years to come. They best make sure their practices are right and tight going forward.

Gary Moser: I think he (and maybe a few other "doctors") gets convicted of crimes and serves a jail sentence, where he is violated daily, forever "altering" they way he goes to the bathroom. No, for real, this guy is toast and will serve time, and will forever be shunned from the industry. But, a leopard does not change its spots, and this leopard will be back in some form or another and will get caught again.

VCP/Net54 and other PWCC advertisers: Nothing happens. And nothing should happen.

The Rest: Some people will lose money and have to write off the cost of cards they have acquired. Other cards will be devalued as a result of guilt by association. Most people will NOT turn in cards they think or know are altered and will try to sell them and most of the bad cards (the majority of which have not been outed or discovered) will continue to circulate. Within months we will all go back to being purposely ignorant of bad actors and alterations and we will all fool ourselves into thinking all is well because the TPGs say so.

Some people will check the blowout lists and other places where altered cards have been posted. Others may demand records of provenance or be evermore mindful of viewing cards under loops. But those will be the minority. For most, it will be business as usual by September; and for some, it has always been business as usual.

That said, what people are doing here and Blowout is important and it is making a difference. It may not topple the whole regime, but it has opened many eyes and our "hobby" will be better for it. We, the collectors, must police the industry and stay vigilant. But we must also be mindful that this does not become the French revolution where heads roll just because they have eyes on them and a finger pointed. Thank you to everyone who has put in so much time and effort uncovering and publicizing this fiasco - keep up the great work and how can we help?

How do you think it will shake out?

Brent will keep laughing all the way to the bank.....That's how it will shake out....Ebay doesn't give a SHIT and neither does he.....

[Aj-hman]

What do I have the power to control? My actions only.

PWCC: I will never again buy from pwcc and tell people I know what has been alleged.

Gary Moser: If what has been alleged is true his legacy will always be that of a scoundrel. Have you ever stepped in dog s**t at first you are annoyed. Then you smell it or track it inside........ that is one heck of a legacy.

PSA: THE GATE KEEPER! I no longer value their product and will not buy PSA graded cards. In the event they make every possible effort to improve practices and publish the list of alleged altered cards I will then look to them for services and start to trust their brand. In the card business the card grader is where the buck stops. In the mean time I will just estimate the grade myself assign a value and hope it is not altered.

VCP/Net54 and other PWCC advertisers: I know that when I first saw the posts on the message boards regarding the trifecta of shame and saw the pwcc advertisement I questioned the integrity of the site. I trust the integrity of this site based on how it is managed and am pleased it is available to use.

The Rest: I wish ebay had a block seller feature.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Aj-hman

What do I have the power to control? My actions only.

PWCC: I will never again buy from pwcc and tell people I know what has been alleged.

Gary Moser: If what has been alleged is true his legacy will always be that of a scoundrel. Have you ever stepped in dog s**t at first you are annoyed. Then you smell it or track it inside........ that is one heck of a legacy.

PSA: THE GATE KEEPER! I no longer value their product and will not buy PSA graded cards. In the event they make very possible effort to improve practices and publish the list of alleged altered cards I will then look to them for services and start to trust their brand. In the card business the card grader is where the buck stops. In the mean time I will just estimate the grade myself assign a value and hope it is not altered.

VCP/Net54 and other PWCC advertisers: I know that when I first saw the posts on the message boards regarding the trifecta of shame and saw the pwcc advertisement I questioned the integrity of the site. I trust the integrity of this site based on how it is managed and am pleased it is available to use.

The Rest: I wish ebay had a block seller feature.

One thing I am pretty certain of and that is Brent and his wife had better toughen up their vocal cards to be ready at the National to respond/rationalize/explain to their many customers just what transpired with some of these high-value cards.
As for Moser, if I were him, I would head to Rio, carefully observe the half naked lovelies on the beach and "restore" a card of Pele from time to time.