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  #1  
Old 07-06-2012, 11:16 AM
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Default Black Swamp Find - PSA E98 Population Report

So we can have a view of what is being discussed, and by popular demand, here is the PSA Population report for E98s.





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  #2  
Old 07-06-2012, 11:23 AM
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Default Wow!

If my calculations are correct, 50% of the PSA population is 7 or higher (including those with qualifiers).
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  #3  
Old 07-06-2012, 11:23 AM
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I assume there are at least multiples of each of the 30 cards, colors aside? In other words, how many complete sets can be made from the find? It seems that the distribution is uneven.
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  #4  
Old 07-06-2012, 11:30 AM
Matthew H Matthew H is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrysloate View Post
I assume there are at least multiples of each of the 30 cards, colors aside? In other words, how many complete sets can be made from the find? It seems that the distribution is uneven.
They found 28 different, no complete set. Only one Matty, Jennings, and Tinker (I may be off here) and no Lajoie or Walsh.
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  #5  
Old 07-06-2012, 11:31 AM
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Looks to me that the magic number is 22. if you look at the players PSA 6 and above and look at the multiples, 22 keeps popping up.

Looks like Mathewson might not be there in high grade.
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  #6  
Old 07-06-2012, 11:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaybird View Post
Looks to me that the magic number is 22. if you look at the players PSA 6 and above and look at the multiples, 22 keeps popping up.

Looks like Mathewson might not be there in high grade.
Heritage:

"Of the 30 players from the E98 series the collection offered 25 players in duplicate, a trio represented by a single example and two players (Lajoie and Walsh) mysteriously not represented."

I was guessing which cards were represented by a single copy.
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  #7  
Old 07-06-2012, 11:48 AM
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This will probably produce crazy registry competition for nice examples of the ones not included in the find.
JimB
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  #8  
Old 07-06-2012, 11:49 AM
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No Lajoies. That's a shame.
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  #9  
Old 07-06-2012, 12:11 PM
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Thanks Matthew. Looks like there will be tons of Near Sets- 25 cards or so- but no more complete sets than before. But the number of collectors who can upgrade an existing set will be limitless.
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  #10  
Old 07-06-2012, 12:14 PM
barrysloate barrysloate is offline
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The pricing will be all over the board. The PSA 10 Wagner will surely set a new record for a caramel card and will be well into six figures. But if you can settle for a Wagner in a 7 it will be so easy to find and very affordable. And what about the commons where there are 20-40 of each one? They won't be too expensive either. Man, this is a fascinating find.
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  #11  
Old 07-06-2012, 12:16 PM
Matthew H Matthew H is offline
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No Lajoies. That's a shame.

Maybe, since they were in Ohio, the Lajoie cards were given away to kids.
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  #12  
Old 07-06-2012, 01:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrysloate View Post
The pricing will be all over the board. The PSA 10 Wagner will surely set a new record for a caramel card and will be well into six figures. But if you can settle for a Wagner in a 7 it will be so easy to find and very affordable. And what about the commons where there are 20-40 of each one? They won't be too expensive either. Man, this is a fascinating find.
For the ones with 20-40 of each, it might be something similar to the Tango Eggs cards, where you see NM cards going for $500 for the common cards, but much higher for a player where less cards were found.

Obviously I'm not sure about it at all, but super curious to see how this pans out....
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  #13  
Old 07-06-2012, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scooter729 View Post
For the ones with 20-40 of each, it might be something similar to the Tango Eggs cards, where you see NM cards going for $500 for the common cards, but much higher for a player where less cards were found.

Obviously I'm not sure about it at all, but super curious to see how this pans out....

I was thinking the same thing. Reminding me of Bescher and Jennings from the Tango set.
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  #14  
Old 07-06-2012, 02:12 PM
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Yes- the Jennings and Bescher Tango Eggs was the first thing that came to mind. But in this case, 20-25 cards out of 30 are like the Jennings and Bescher. Before this find finding a high grade E98 common for a type set was a challenge. You might come across a 5 or 6, but a 7 would be really tough. Now you will have 700 to choose from. From that perspective high grade commons may be cheaper than T206 in a similar grade.

But what about the Ty Cobbs graded a 9? Those won't be cheap. Yet one has think that 46 Wagners are going to cause a big price drop. Very difficult to assess value here. This is going to be volatile group of cards. Still, maybe the most unusual find in hobby history.
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  #15  
Old 07-06-2012, 03:36 PM
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Default E98 Wagner

I have two Wagner 4's in both Orange & Blue. I wonder what those values are now and will be later. It's debatable, but many believe in valuing cards you look at demand then rarity. I do think the other colors will draw attention after this high end group is sold.
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  #16  
Old 07-06-2012, 03:42 PM
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There have been a few awesome finds over the past few years, whether it was the T207 Red Cross Lowdermilk that walked onto the Antiques Roadshow, or the Just So Ewing found nailed inside the wall of a house, or now this. The hobby continues to provide excitement. But it must stink to be tbob.
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  #17  
Old 07-06-2012, 04:08 PM
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It seems to me the cards that were hardly present in this find will become even more valuable and expensive... whereas the more common cards will depreciate a la tango eggs beschers!!
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  #18  
Old 07-06-2012, 04:16 PM
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I'm holding out for the Brown Swamp find of Gem Mint E107s....

Cheers,
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  #19  
Old 02-09-2014, 01:14 PM
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Pete, who graded your orange E98 Wagner? There is only one of those in the PSA pop report and that is a PSA 2.5
--Rob
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  #20  
Old 02-10-2014, 04:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pcoz View Post
I have two Wagner 4's in both Orange & Blue. I wonder what those values are now and will be later. It's debatable, but many believe in valuing cards you look at demand then rarity. I do think the other colors will draw attention after this high end group is sold.
Value is directly proportional to demand over supply in a dynamic setting, with these values subject to nearly constant change. However, many overlook the fact that the supply portion of the equation is not the total number in existence at any given time, but the number that are or are likely to become available in a given, reasonable period of time. Pure collectors, such as most of the members of this board, tend to purchase and hold for years, decades, quarter and half-centuries, as opposed to speculators and pure investors, who, in looking for the quick and profitable flip, tend to hold for only as short a time as necessary, thereby increasing the available supply for the defined reasonable period of time. It was for this reason that the most prolific writer in the coin collecting field, Q. David Bowers, deemed the collector "king."

In my view, prices may drop for the short term, but will not take too long to rise again, as most of these gems are likely to be put away in short order and removed from the marketplace for many years.

Best wishes to all--interesting post!

Larry
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  #21  
Old 02-12-2014, 02:01 PM
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Default wow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matthew H View Post
Heritage:

"Of the 30 players from the E98 series the collection offered 25 players in duplicate, a trio represented by a single example and two players (Lajoie and Walsh) mysteriously not represented."

I was guessing which cards were represented by a single copy.
this find really messed up this set....glAD IM NOT A COLLECTOR IF THIS SET
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  #22  
Old 02-12-2014, 02:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ullmandds View Post
It seems to me the cards that were hardly present in this find will become even more valuable and expensive... whereas the more common cards will depreciate a la tango eggs beschers!!
THERE ARE FEWER Bescher E90-1 than Tango....

Steve Soloway completed the e90-1 set minus one card....The Bescher!
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  #23  
Old 02-12-2014, 03:27 PM
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Default E98 Wagner's

Quote:
Originally Posted by robw1959 View Post
Pete, who graded your orange E98 Wagner? There is only one of those in the PSA pop report and that is a PSA 2.5
--Rob
Here are my orange & blue Wagners....
Attached Images
File Type: jpg E98HWOR.jpg (79.2 KB, 306 views)
File Type: jpg E98HWBLUE.jpg (73.4 KB, 306 views)
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  #24  
Old 02-12-2014, 03:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrysloate View Post
The pricing will be all over the board. The PSA 10 Wagner will surely set a new record for a caramel card and will be well into six figures.
The PSA 10 black swamp Wagner sold for about 250k. A PSA 9 E93 Cobb sold for 274k privately about five years ago. So the Wagner has not set a record yet.
JimB
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  #25  
Old 02-12-2014, 03:47 PM
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Quote:
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Here are my orange & blue Wagners....
Fantastic cards Pete!
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  #26  
Old 02-12-2014, 04:18 PM
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Default E98 Wags

Thanks Dean!
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  #27  
Old 05-12-2017, 08:15 PM
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Can someone look at the PSA and SGC pop reports now? Looks like Heritage is potentially having some graded by SGC now to keep the perception of a market flood lower. Am I right about that?

Update: found them, but how can the PSA pop have gone down since 2012?

SGC
http://www.sgccard.com/PopulationRep...px?setid=16834

PSA
https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball...8-set-30/36067
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  #28  
Old 05-13-2017, 07:35 AM
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The pop report would go down if they were crossed over to SGC or cracked out and the flips returned to PSA.
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  #29  
Old 05-13-2017, 07:53 AM
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I do know that the PSA report increased by at least one when I crossed my SGC to PSA.
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