Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys

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Posted By: bruce Dorskind

Irrational Exuberance Low Number High Grade 1933 Goudeys


Whilst the headline from last night's Memory Lane Auction will no doubt be
about the $275,000 paid for the PSA 10 Gehrig, the result that intrigued us
most was the vast difference in prices realized for two low number PSA 8 1933 Goudeys
and the fact that a number of other Goudeys with a similar population
realized only 10% of the price of their lower number cousins

#26 Chalmer Cissell PSA 8 NM-MT $7455 (pop 8 none higher)
#36 Tommy Thevenow PSA 8 NM-MT $8198 (pop 9 none higher)
#203 Lonnie Warneke PSA 8 NM-MT $670.00 (pop 12 one higher)

Only one example of the Thevenow has been auctioned in the past two
years. It realized a 21% higher price in the Spring 2005 REA auction.
We , by the way, were the winners of the Warneke example.

We would appreciate your views on why there is a such a significant
price differential for cards whose populations are quite similar?


Bruce Dorskind
America’s Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Steve Murray

"none higher" vs. "one higher". Seems obvious to us.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Some of the reasons include: the difference in population and 'none higher' as Steve pointed out. Also, the first two cards are 2 point set registry cards and the latter 1. However, Bruce, to the rational mind these factors do not explain the 13x difference between those cards and yours. I recently bought #115 Cliff Heathcoate PSA 8 with a pop 10 and none higher for $697. I'd sell the card for a third of what the Cissell and Thevanow went for if I could get it.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Bruce- I know from my own auctions that when I get prices that seem crazy compared to similar items they are totally based upon who is bidding. If there is no particular bidding war going on my lots will sell in the range of fair market price.

When a similar lot sells significantly higher, it's usually two bidders going back and forth. Looking at prices realized alone doesn't tell you the full story.

It could have been two guys going back and forth all night on the Cissell and the Thevenow.

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Posted By: JimB

As Barry suggested, I would guess it is simply a matter of two people who really need/want those particular cards.
JimB

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Posted By: Rand Brotman

both low number cards are extremely tough, when you back out who already owns the other cards in the registry, you will realize there may be only 1 or 2 examples available to buy if you want that card. The Thevenow card is a bit different, his son buys up all the Thevenow cards (just like Evar Swanson's son) on ebay that come available. so if he was aware of this card and another person was looking to upgrade its a battle. in the end, i still dont trust the actual figues in any Mem Lane auction.

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Posted By: peter chao

The Dorskinds purchased a '33 Goudey Warneke in PSA 8 for over $650? Doesn't that seem a little high? Last weekend at the Tri-Star in San Francisco, I purchased a PSA 6 '54 Bowman Mantle for about the same price. I don't know about you, but I would rather have the Mantle.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Bruce's price was not high.

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Posted By: peter chao

Jeff,

You are a New Yorker and I will assume that you are a Mantle collector. Would you rather have the PSA 8 Lonnie Warneke or the PSA 6 Mantle?

Peter C.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I'd rather have the Goudey because I collect the set. Now, if the question was a PSA 8 Mantle or the Goudey, no question the Mantle.