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  #51  
Old 02-04-2008, 07:01 AM
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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

I think it strains credulity to believe the set registry wasn't created to take advantage of and fuel competition among participants. And that PSA is counting on this "overt competition" to contribute to a flood of initial re-submissions and help resuscitate their sagging business outlook. In addition, it is logical to believe PSA's rush to give certain prominant set registry members great deals to re-submit is motivated in large measure by PSA's hope that the bump in those members' set standings would create a domino effect and induce others to re-submit to maintain their place in the standings.

If in fact the typical set registry member does not have competition as one of his motives, then presumably most of the initial set registry re-submissions will come from people ready to sell now. Otherwise, I don't see why such people would want to incur costs now that could be deferred to later.

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  #52  
Old 02-04-2008, 07:08 AM
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Posted By: JimCrandell

Corey,

I don't disagree that PSA wants to create this competition but I still think this is a minor reason why people may resubmit. Far greater in my opinion is the theoretical increase in value of the set
and the knowlwedge that your set has increased in perceived quality.
While its likely all major owners of PSA cards will take them up on their proposal(how could they not?)unlikely in my opinion that the increased set registry scores they attain will be an incentive for others to do so on a widespread basis.

Jim

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  #53  
Old 02-04-2008, 07:30 AM
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Posted By: Corey R. Shanus

Jim,

Thanks for the response. I think this is an issue that in the end we will agree to disagree.

I'm not saying competition is the only motive of the typical registry member. But I am saying it is a key one and one that PSA is counting on to fuel a flood of initial re-submissions. Otherwise, I don't see why they would feel the need to offer such great deals to major registry members. Picking one to be the test case would suffice to show how re-submissions can result in increased theoretical value of their holdings and increased perceived quality. And the one they would most likely pick would not be one such as you with so many cards (and therefore greater cost to re-evaluate) but one with fewer holdings, though still enough to establish their point.

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  #54  
Old 02-04-2008, 07:55 AM
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Posted By: JimCrandell

Corey,

Fair enough.

I have been outspoken against this in the past and perhaps it vwas deemed important to get me on board since I am not shy with my opinions?

Jim

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  #55  
Old 02-04-2008, 08:10 AM
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Posted By: barrysloate

This whole concept is still in its infancy and it will take some time to see how it evolves.

Here's something I just thought of (it may have already been mentioned before): Suppose PSA is really strict with giving half-grade bumps, and less than 5% of cards resubmitted get them? Once that news spreads the incentive for others to resubmit would be small. So is it possible PSA will be overly generous, giving so many half bumps that every major collector of PSA cards will feel compelled to send a batch in? Again, the more bumps they give out, the more future business for them.

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  #56  
Old 02-04-2008, 08:13 AM
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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

The anecdotal evidence that I have received so far suggests the opposite.

Jim

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  #57  
Old 02-04-2008, 08:14 AM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- I missed your drift. Are they being lenient or very strict?

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  #58  
Old 02-04-2008, 08:20 AM
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Posted By: Eric Brehm

For PSA, the downside to being too generous with the half-grade bumps is that it will diminish their reputation for accurate grading. In my opinion they will have condition standards (centering, etc.) that will be applied as objectively as possible. In theory, somewhere in the neighborhood of half of the cards submitted should get the bumps.

PSA plans to release SMR values for half-grade cards in the near future. Since there won't be any actual sales figures to base these on, they will start with initial estimates (33% above next lowest whole grade value maybe?), and then refine these over time as they see how the market reacts to the new system. Of course since people do tend to use SMR as a guide for purchasing, these figures will influence to some degree the way the market does in fact react.

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  #59  
Old 02-04-2008, 08:25 AM
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Posted By: Steve

Barry

PSA had a few collectors submit cards earlier this month so the graders could practice with the new .5 scale. From what i was told one guy sent in around 100 of his best cards and less then 15% were bumped up.


Not sure if that tells us anything. What I think we all should do is wait and see. See what some of these cards look like. Another problem to this is what happens to the lower grades? Will some 6.5's not look nicer then some 6's? h I think that is very possible.


The 6.5 could be a dog 7 while the 6 is a true Ex/MNT card. Again we will not know until we start seeing these cards appear on the market or in the registry.

Then and only then will we then see how the market reacts.


Steve

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  #60  
Old 02-04-2008, 08:30 AM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Actually, since I threw out the numbers 10% and 20% in my earlier post, and you heard that about 15% of one submission got bumped, then maybe that will be the eventual range.

I would think if 50% of the cards get half grade bumps that would be too liberal. And I agree centering will play a big factor.

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  #61  
Old 02-04-2008, 08:35 AM
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Posted By: JimCrandell

Barry,

I heard someone sent a reasonably large group of T206s(psa 8s) and got 12% bumped up. I think your guess is right on the money for pre-war but I do believe that the percentages will rise as we get into 50s and 60s.

Jim

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  #62  
Old 02-04-2008, 08:53 AM
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Posted By: Eric Brehm

If I have a set on the registry, and I get 8 points for a PSA 8, 8.5 points for a PSA 8.5, and 9 points for a PSA 9, then an 8.5 card should be halfway between an 8 and a 9, quality-wise (not necessarily value-wise, of course). If only 15% of existing PSA 8 cards are considered good enough to get a half-grade bump, and I have one of those, I should get 8.85 points for it!

One other thing to keep in mind though, is that the percentage of cards that do receive the half-grade bumps will be skewed somewhat by the fact that people will tend to submit stronger cards within each grade (i.e. that have a higher likelihood of being re-graded).

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  #63  
Old 02-04-2008, 09:46 AM
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Posted By: Joann

Corey - you're absolutely right about not having to discount for the bump review. I hadn't thought about that. I was looking at it from just the mechanical perspective. Still, I'd like to ask someone from PSA that question (why no discount). Right now it looks like the answer would have to be one of wanting to pocket the money, or that the grading time is so minimal they can't discount it.

Steve - I was talking about base level submissions. I've often wondered though about whether the more expensive service levels actually result in a more thorough review. Probably. But I know that bumping into a schedule is expensive in any operation, so that has to be part of it.

And I must be missing something completely with this 10-12-15-20% bump issue. Why wouldn't it almost automatically be 50%. Shouldn't all cards graded 6 divide themselves roughly half and half between the top part of the range (6.5 - 7) and the bottom half (6 - 6.5)? It seems like they would almost have to.

In fact, if the number of bumps isn't about 50% I would almost conclude that something went wrong with the process. I can't see any way that cards, after 100 years of use and travel, wouldn't be distributed somewhat evenly within a range. The outcome of the bumps just about has to reflect that reality, doesn't it? It wouldn't be natural to have all 6's somehow magically be at 80% in the lower half of the range and 20% upper half.

I think I need this one 'splained to me. If I resubmitted all of my cards - even at a favorable bulk fee - and got back 15% bumps I'd hit the roof.

It's gotta be something easy I'm missing, right?

Joann

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  #64  
Old 02-04-2008, 09:54 AM
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Posted By: SC

<<One other thing to keep in mind though, is that the percentage of cards that do receive the half-grade bumps will be skewed somewhat by the fact that people will tend to submit stronger cards within each grade (i.e. that have a higher likelihood of being re-graded).>>

How many cards out there are truly worth getting graded regardless of condition? From post-war cards - some of the earliest Mantles and a few key rookies. Prewar? A little bit more, but a lot of it ends at Cobbs, Gehrigs, and Ruths.

I really don't see why this is so disconcerting. It's not like BGS using a formula for their subgrades. A card has to meet certain criteria to get a specific grade. I've always thought - how can an absolutely blazing vending card that is 70/30, get the same grade as a card that's 70/30 with touched corners, etc.? They are both 7s, but one would universally be acknowledged as nicer.

What about on lower grade cards? A card won't get above a 3 with a moderate crease, but that perfectly centered card with great color and appearance has to rate higher than the 90/10 example with dull color and nearly rounded corners.

If Jim, for instance, sent in his entire sets, or someone else submitted a brand new batch of clean cards - we might have some idea what to expect on % upgrades. But if people are going to cherry pick their best 8s...the number will simply be a product of the quality of the person's skill in evaluating grading, and a standard variance.

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  #65  
Old 02-04-2008, 09:56 AM
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Posted By: JimCrandell

"Its gotta be something easy I'm missing right"

For prewar cards the number of 7s is usually a lot less than the number of 8s.

The number of 8s is usually a lot less than the number of 9s. It thus stands to reason that the number of 8s will be a lot less than the 8.5s. For pre-war cards it gets very difficult to find them in high grade.

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  #66  
Old 02-04-2008, 09:59 AM
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Posted By: JimCrandell

Solomon,

I disagree--collectors are by and large trying to collect entire sets in 8 or better--not just star cards--common cards that are low pop for every set in the 50s can run into the thousands in psa 8.

If incentivized to do so, many collectors will be sending their entire sets in.

Jim

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  #67  
Old 02-04-2008, 10:02 AM
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Posted By: SC

<<And I must be missing something completely with this 10-12-15-20% bump issue. Why wouldn't it almost automatically be 50%. Shouldn't all cards graded 6 divide themselves roughly half and half between the top part of the range (6.5 - 7) and the bottom half (6 - 6.5)? It seems like they would almost have to.>>

Look at the average population reports on vintage cards. Let's say you have a card that is worth $40 in Ex/Exmt Raw, $50 in a 5, $100 in a 6, $300 in a 7, and $1000 in an 8. So it's not really worth it to get it graded hoping/expecting less than a 6 (i.e. elminate values under 5 because they wouldn't be submitted intentionally). Your pop report might be:

1-5 - 38%
6 - 50%
7 - 10%
8 - 2%

With the fact that the difference in population is exponential, with 7s 5x as tough as 6, and 8s 5x as tough as 7s - doesn't it make sense that maybe only 20% of the 6s will be good enough for 7s? In other words, a lot more of the 6s will be proverbial "6.1s" than "6.9s". Plus a number of the really high end 6s have already been bumped (to 7s). Basic elements of standard deviation.

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  #68  
Old 02-04-2008, 10:05 AM
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Posted By: SC

Jim,

I was saying - how many cards are worth getting graded, regardless of grade? Yes, any 8 in the 50s is worth slabbing...but would you slab a 55T common in a 3? You may well do that with a Clemente RC, but there are only a handful of cards in most sets (especially post-mid 50s) that are worth getting graded less than a 7 at minimum.

Point being that comparing the population on a PSA 7 '55 common to a PSA 8 isn't exactly a valid comparison of rarity, because a lot of 7s will never be submitted due to economics of grading.

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  #69  
Old 02-04-2008, 10:16 AM
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Posted By: JimCrandell

Sol--I see your point.

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  #70  
Old 02-04-2008, 10:23 AM
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Posted By: Joann

OK, I understand that an 8 is harder than a 7 which is harder than a 6, and so forth.

But that's because the tail end of the distribution would understandably be decreasing across many grades. The entire distribution wouldn't be normal because of the number of low end cards - the distribtion would be skewed toward 1. But toward the high end of the overall grading scale the distribution would probably tail off in a way that closely resembles normal.

But within a single grade, it seems like it would not have that steep of a fall-off from bottom half to top half. It can't (shouldn't) be steeper than the overall rate of fall-off. I understand that this is an imperfect process, but it seems like it would create a stair-step dropoff that doesn't seem right.

I guess it would depend on how they set the critera for the mid-grades, which makes this all the more interesting to me. It seems like it would be hard to create these mid-interval criteria that finely. I'd think it would be more likely to split the range roughly equally.

It's possible - even probable - that the existing whole grades create a stair step in between grades so that the distribtution within a grade is roughly equal. In that case the bump percent would have to result in something around 50%.

I don't know - it's hard for me to see that there is such distinction within these higher grades that they could create such a subtle "fade" within a grade as you approach the next grade.

It would make more sense in the lower grades where the condition can fall off dramatically within a grade (the great 2's versus the borderline beater 2's).

But for the higher grades, I guess I'm surprised that such a detailed level of discrmination is possible. Especially since the actual card evaulation apparently constitutes such a minor part of the whole process! haahah.

J

Joann

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  #71  
Old 02-04-2008, 10:38 AM
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Posted By: Eric Brehm

It's a question of whether PSA will define 8.5 as the midpoint of observed quality over the 8 range, or as the midpoint relative to some independent objective standard regarding card condition (corner wear, centering, etc.). If the latter is the case, I could see that there will be less 8.5's than than there are 8's (i.e. less than 50% will get a bump), just as there now many fewer 9's than 8's. As Jim C. said that will be particularly true of pre-war cards where higher grade cards are more scarce.

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  #72  
Old 02-04-2008, 11:21 AM
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Posted By: Matt Bojorquez

I have been told the PSA 8.5 will require near perfect centering, absolutely zero PD, and must possess great eye appeal. It also means you will see far fewer vintage cards being graded a PSA 9 in the future, they will now be 8.5s.

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  #73  
Old 02-04-2008, 11:29 AM
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Matt, that's interesting: I've seen plenty of 9s that don't possess such criteria.

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  #74  
Old 02-04-2008, 11:29 AM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Joann- I think it should be less than 50%, and here's why.

I will have to assume that PSA's standards for giving a half-grade bump are rather strict. If they're not, then anything is possible. I kind of compare it to an NFL team challenging a play. Upon review an ump may see the possibility he called the play wrong, but unless he has conclusive proof, the play stands as is.

If PSA has integrity (possible oxymoron) they will only bump cards that are clearly high end within the grade. So maybe 50% of all cards graded a 6 are roughly halfway to a 7, but unless they have some unmistakable characteristic- perfect centering, full gloss, whatever- they should stay as is. But that's assuming they just don't turn this into Christmas morning.

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  #75  
Old 02-04-2008, 11:30 AM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Jeff- posted at the same minute again!

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  #76  
Old 02-04-2008, 05:13 PM
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Posted By: Scot Reader

It has been suggested that a loose standard for half-point upgrades will result in a larger number of resubmissions than a strict standard. I don't think this is necessarily true because a strict standard will result in a larger number of cards being resubmitted for upgrade multiple times.

Edited to add: If board members who try the upgrade service are willing to report on this thread their experience (e.g. the % of cards granted the half-point) I for one would greatly appreciate it!

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  #77  
Old 02-06-2008, 08:47 AM
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Posted By: Steve

Yesterday someone reported some poppage (not resubmits) and of 99 cards he received 3 .5 cards. He recieved grades from 6 thru 10 for 1960 61 type cards.

Not sure if that tells anyone anything since the cards were sent in raw.

Steve

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  #78  
Old 02-06-2008, 12:26 PM
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Posted By: Scot Reader


Only three percent? Wow.

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  #79  
Old 02-06-2008, 12:39 PM
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Posted By: JimB

SGC does not seem to use half grades as much either, except the 1.5/20s. Maybe PSA is following SGC's lead on that.
JimB

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  #80  
Old 02-06-2008, 03:28 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Jim- SGC uses the 70 with some frequency, which is a 5.5.

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  #81  
Old 02-06-2008, 07:27 PM
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Posted By: Eric Brehm

I was curious to know how frequently SGC has been assigning their 1/2 grades, so I looked it up. For the issues I sampled, the rate of 1/2 grade assignments (as a fraction of the total cards graded with or without the 1/2 grade bump at each whole grade level) varies between about 15% and 30% for grades 7/7.5 and 8/8.5. Here is the data for all of the half grades:

For T206:

* of 99 total cards graded 8 (SGC 88) or 8.5 (SGC 92), 20 were given 8.5 (20.2%)
* of 713 total cards graded 7 (SGC 84) or 7.5 (SGC 86), 139 were given 7.5 (19.5%)
* of 6709 total cards graded 5 (SGC 60) or 5.5 (SGC 70), 1520 were given 5.5 (22.7%)
* of 6163 total cards graded 1 (SGC 10) or 1.5 (SGC 20), 3405 were given 1.5 (55.2%)

For 1933 Goudey:

* of 217 total cards graded 8 (SGC 88) or 8.5 (SGC 92), 31 were given 8.5 (14.3%)
* of 695 total cards graded 7 (SGC 84) or 7.5 (SGC 86), 185 were given 7.5 (26.7%)
* of 2569 total cards graded 5 (SGC 60) or 5.5 (SGC 70), 620 were given 5.5 (24.1%)
* of 904 total cards graded 1 (SGC 10) or 1.5 (SGC 20), 527 were given 1.5 (58.3%)

For 1952 Topps:

* of 510 total cards graded 8 (SGC 88) or 8.5 (SGC 92), 92 were given 8.5 (18.0%)
* of 1470 total cards graded 7 (SGC 84) or 7.5 (SGC 86), 444 were given 7.5 (30.2%)
* of 2197 total cards graded 5 (SGC 60) or 5.5 (SGC 70), 825 were given 5.5 (37.6%)
* of 141 total cards graded 1 (SGC 10) or 1.5 (SGC 20), 92 were given 1.5 (65.2%)

As would be expected, there is a higher percentage of EX+, NM+ and NM/MT+ graded cards associated with the more recently produced issues, with the exception of the 8/8.5 grades for T206, which could be an anomaly of some sort, or just small sample variation.

Perhaps similar half-grade upgrade rates can be expected from PSA when they begin using their new grading system.

By the way, SGC's 10-100 grading scale does not include grades that are equivalent to 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 6.5, or 9.5 on the traditional 1 to 10 scale; they currently use only 1.5 (Fair), 5.5 (EX+), 7.5 (NM+), and 8.5 (NM/MT+).

Here is the SGC grade distribution for the three issues:



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  #82  
Old 02-06-2008, 07:40 PM
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Eric, I'm still trying to digest your work but in the meantime, some conclusions:

1) I hope you're an accountant, actuary or math professor -- otherwise I suspect you're experiencing an unfulfilling life;
2) You clearly have too much time on your hands (would you like to help out on a federal narcotics trial in Manhattan next week?); and
3) We need to find you a hobby, one that takes up some of your free time. Do you collect coins? Or stamps?

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  #83  
Old 02-06-2008, 07:48 PM
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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Jeff, you guessed it, I am a semi-retired mathematician. Just can't keep my hands off the data. Numbers speak better than words, anyhow. Not sure how much I could contribute to a narcotics trial, is there some analysis of some sort that is needed? And baseball card collecting is enough (probably too much) of a hobby for me at the moment, thanks.

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  #84  
Old 02-06-2008, 08:39 PM
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Posted By: JimB

Eric,
Thanks for the data. That is great.
JimB

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  #85  
Old 02-07-2008, 06:25 AM
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Posted By: Steve

math aside, another submission popped and of 50 hi grade cards exactly 1 was given an in between grade. These cards wre all 7, 8, and 9 caliber.

Methinks the half grads are going to be for the cards that have large spreads between grades.

Steve

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  #86  
Old 02-07-2008, 09:46 AM
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

PSA is hilarious! They are making everyone spend all this money for resubmissions -- and then in order to make more money on the deal, PSA only spends the time and resources to break out one card out of every 50 submitted! Never get cheated, Joe!

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  #87  
Old 02-07-2008, 09:59 AM
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Posted By: Bob

"I don't know - it's hard for me to see that there is such distinction within these higher grades that they could create such a subtle "fade" within a grade as you approach the next grade.

It would make more sense in the lower grades where the condition can fall off dramatically within a grade (the great 2's versus the borderline beater 2's).

But for the higher grades, I guess I'm surprised that such a detailed level of discrmination is possible."

Well said, Joann. I was thinking the same thing but you said it very eloquently.

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  #88  
Old 02-07-2008, 10:54 AM
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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Even with the existing PSA system, I often have a hard time distinguishing between say, a '7' and an '8', or between an '8' and a '9'. And I have often scratched my head over some of the grades that PSA assigns, in all grades. But, SGC, GAI, and Beckett have been using half grades for a long time, so there must be some method to the madness. We'll see what PSA comes up with. I think they are in it to make money, yes, but I'm not so cynical as to think that they are just trying to rip everybody off.

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Old 02-07-2008, 02:13 PM
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Posted By: Steve

Jeff

The two examples I have posted about were from raw submissions not resubs. I thought I made that clear.

Steve

edited to add I see that the 2nd post i failed to mention that. I have yet to see a resub pop.

Steve

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Old 02-07-2008, 02:17 PM
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Default 1/2 GRADES

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

But Steve -- if only one of 50 cards merits the new half point grade, doesn't that suggest that PSA will rarely give it out whether on a raw submission or resubmission?

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Old 02-08-2008, 03:24 PM
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Default 1/2 GRADES

Posted By: Steve

Jeff I have no idea, all I can do at this time is report what i have heard and seen.

At this time I have heard of at least 10 RAW subs popped (around 1000 cards) and the .5 grade has been issued less then 7% (more like 5%) of the time.

IMO the bumps are going to be issued to cards where a substantial spread in price between grades exists.

The best pct thus far was to someone who had 2 cards out of 14 grade out with a .5 grade. Both those cards IMO have substantial spreads between grades too. One was a 68 Bench rookie the other a 53 or 54 Satchel Paige. I think both were 7.5's but am not sure. Could be 8.5's.

If I was to resubmit any cards for this 'bump' Id make sure that they had substantial spreads in price. I wouldn't do it for commons just to raise my registry ranking.

Steve

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