"Possibly doctored" cards at the National.....

[steve B]

Originally Posted by packs

You'd probably need 80% less money to buy a raw 52 Mantle. And then you'd lose the 20% you paid when it turned out to be a reprint.

No, I know what real cards look and feel like. like most collectors who started in the late 70's, I've probably physically handled more 52T and T206 than most dealers who began their business in the early 90's or later. Pretty much every table at every show had rubber banded stacks of them. The local shop would get in collections and being the kid that hung out there, I sometimes got to be the first one to really look at them.

Hey how about you send me a fake and real one and I'll send the fake back to you? If you're right, it's a coin toss, better odds than Vegas. (Also applies to commons, and pretty much any set that isn't so uncommon that I've never seen one.

[Snapolit1]

My black light is used strictly for listening to Hendrix and Pink Floyd and smoking with hippies.

[kateighty]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

My black light is used strictly for listening to Hendrix and Pink Floyd and smoking with hippies.

Bahahaha...that was a good one!

[packs]

Originally Posted by steve B

No, I know what real cards look and feel like. like most collectors who started in the late 70's, I've probably physically handled more 52T and T206 than most dealers who began their business in the early 90's or later. Pretty much every table at every show had rubber banded stacks of them. The local shop would get in collections and being the kid that hung out there, I sometimes got to be the first one to really look at them.

Hey how about you send me a fake and real one and I'll send the fake back to you? If you're right, it's a coin toss, better odds than Vegas. (Also applies to commons, and pretty much any set that isn't so uncommon that I've never seen one.

I don't think the issue is whether one person can tell the difference. There is no logical reason why it wouldn't be slabbed unless there was something about the card that made it untouchable to TPG. People buy tables at shows to make money. Anyone who wants to make money is going to have a card like that graded, unless there's something wrong with it.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think the issue is whether one person can tell the difference. There is no logical reason why it wouldn't be slabbed unless there was something about the card that made it untouchable to TPG. People buy tables at shows to make money. Anyone who wants to make money is going to have a card like that graded, unless there's something wrong with it.

The question was who would buy a card like that ungraded.
I'm confident I can spot stuff at least as well as TPG, maybe better in some cases.

If the question had been if that's a good plan for all or even most collectors, that's different.

Sadly, I have had multiple chances to buy some pretty "big" cards, and pretty much never did. The local dealer came back from either the national or philly with a 52 Mantle that had sold for a record price, and over the next few years had maybe 3-4 of them. They were expensive at the time compared to other cards, so I don't mind as much. But there were a few others....

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by steve B

The question was who would buy a card like that ungraded.

Any card like this would be IMMEDIATELY bought/flipped by a dealer to be holdered before any one of us made it in the show. Even with a dealer badge

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by steve B

The question was who would buy a card like that ungraded.
I'm confident I can spot stuff at least as well as TPG, maybe better in some cases.

If the question had been if that's a good plan for all or even most collectors, that's different.

So you’d buy a seemingly near mint raw 52 Mantle for let’s say the price of a PSA 6? I’m certain you wouldn’t. No one would unless that person works the PSA slabbing machine. I’m not sure you understand the point made. We’re not suggesting one can’t spot an altered card; we’re saying that the value the PSA slab brings (rightly or wrongly) is the determining factor of value, not the razor sharp edges.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by calvindog

So you’d buy a seemingly near mint raw 52 Mantle for let’s say the price of a PSA 6? I’m certain you wouldn’t. No one would unless that person works the PSA slabbing machine. I’m not sure you understand the point made. We’re not suggesting one can’t spot an altered card; we’re saying that the value the PSA slab brings (rightly or wrongly) is the determining factor of value, not the razor sharp edges.

The only things that would prevent me from doing that.
Money- What's a 6 go for now? Sort of doesn't matter since I don't have that much.
Interest - That's a ton of dough, especially for a double print. Of course, I could grade it and flip it and be in great shape.

A someone else pointed out, It's extremely unlikely I'd even be offered the card. I did some work for a stamp dealer, and he made more in the hour before the show opened than the rest of the day. Paid me really well, as me setting up freed him to make more deals. There was some stuff he bought and flipped in that hour that never even made it back to the table. And stuff that never saw retail as it was intended for other dealer at the next weeks show.

But lets say I have the money, and am offered the card. If I could inspect it in person, yes, I might buy it. The only difference between buying that and buying stuff in my range like 52Topps commons in similar grades is that the picture is different and it costs more. Of course I'd examine it more closely than a cheaper card, but from a technical standpoint, it's the exact same decision.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by steve B

The only difference between buying that and buying stuff in my range like 52Topps commons in similar grades is that the picture is different and it costs more. Of course I'd examine it more closely than a cheaper card, but from a technical standpoint, it's the exact same decision.

There's a reason seemingly near mint Hall of Famer cards on the BST that are raw are offered at a fraction of the PSA 7-8 value they would receive if graded don't sell. There's a reason why near mint Hall of Famer cards in non-PSA or SGC slabs are offered for a fraction of the value of the identically graded PSA or SGC slabs -- it's because people know the cards are altered or else they'd be in PSA or SGC slabs. There's also a reason no one would ever sell a raw, near mint 52 Mantle -- because he'd be leaving huge money on the table by not getting it slabbed by PSA, because every buyer would assume the card was altered. Which is why no one would ever buy a raw, near mint Mantle for the price of a PSA 6 when the card "looks" like it might be a PSA 7. The difference between a PSA A and a PSA 6 for a 52 Mantle is around 50K. You'd risk 50K to make 50K when the odds are clearly not in your favor?

[steve B]

Originally Posted by calvindog

There's a reason seemingly near mint Hall of Famer cards on the BST that are raw are offered at a fraction of the PSA 7-8 value they would receive if graded don't sell. There's a reason why near mint Hall of Famer cards in non-PSA or SGC slabs are offered for a fraction of the value of the identically graded PSA or SGC slabs -- it's because people know the cards are altered or else they'd be in PSA or SGC slabs. There's also a reason no one would ever sell a raw, near mint 52 Mantle -- because he'd be leaving huge money on the table by not getting it slabbed by PSA, because every buyer would assume the card was altered. Which is why no one would ever buy a raw, near mint Mantle for the price of a PSA 6 when the card "looks" like it might be a PSA 7. The difference between a PSA A and a PSA 6 for a 52 Mantle is around 50K. You'd risk 50K to make 50K when the odds are clearly not in your favor?

So lets say the card is at a 6 price, but looks like it could be a 7. I'm confident enough that I could tell if it was altered that I might go for it.
Assuming I don't find anything that would keep it from being a 6, worst case, it comes back a 6 and I've paid full price and will have to wait a bit to flip it. (Or, if I happen to have that much to spend on cards not flip it.) Best case, it comes back a 7 and I have a slightly tougher choice, keep the bargain or flip it.
I would be far less confident if it was a decision between a 7 and 8 and still less if it was between an 8 and 9.

I totally get that hardly any cards of HOF players that are really nice will be offered ungraded. And if I was selling any of my better cards like that I'd probably get them graded. But they are out there, and not every situation is a purchase from a dealer.

The only way to make it anymore as a collector without a nearly unlimited budget is to know more and have a good eye for things. It works better in other hobbies, where the difference between the cheap and expensive is in details that even most dealers don't bother to check for.