The Dangers of "Prospecting" and its Impact on Vintage

[Seven]

I don't think any of us, are unfamiliar with this concept or term. I feel like It really took off in the late 80s (Greg Jefferies anyone?) with the hobby boom. With the recent explosion of the past few years, It seems like people are leaving themselves more open to huge financial loses. I feel like this is more prevalent now, than ever before in the social media age, with many younger people wanting to be "Famous Influencers."

The latest case that I ran into, was something I saw on Twitter. I mostly use the platform for breaking sports transactions, but this came across my page recently.

https://twitter.com/cblez/status/1623144423445131264

For those of you who can't see the link, It's some social media "card guru" that explains that he paid $50,000 for a 1 of 1 Austin Martin Signed Card, which has seriously tanked in value. Almost if like "investing" in these rookies is like playing with penny stocks. Never mind all the wonderful vintage he could have bought with that sum! As a side note, I'd love to hear what everyone over here would use that 50K for.

Back to the true point of the post, the outrageous prices of some modern cards, the minuscule chances of any of these players actually putting up numbers that would justify these insane prices, combined with the fact that "1 of 1" means nothing at all at this point, makes me think that that the modern market will fall to pieces in a similar way the hobby on the whole did, in 1994. I do however think that while it will drive the "new money" away from modern, those in vintage, or are getting into vintage, are here to stay. Nothing is going to change CY Young's 511 Wins, Ruth's 714 Homers, or Cobb's 4189 Hits. They'll continue to remain strong, and the new blood in the Vintage side of the hobby, will continue to be involved for years to come. What are everyone's thoughts on this?

[ClementeFanOh]

Interesting topic, Seven... I am not surprised by your anecdotes about
modern "prospectors"; however, I am VERY glad I'm not one of them.
Absent the notion of collecting actually to have fun (!!), I'll never understand
why someone looking to invest would skip obviously successful cards,
in favor of guys who have never been to the plate, or taken a shot, or thrown
a football. Seems like I am affirming your opinion on this one.

I have one anecdote that has stuck with me about this topic. About 30 years
ago, I bought a box of baseball (can't even remember what company). The
box cost maybe $20, and I pulled a Tim Salmon insert card. I
took the card to a show a month later, and someone paid me $60 for the card.
I bought a Hank Aaron card with that money Trent King

[Seven]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

Interesting topic, Seven... I am not surprised by your anecdotes about
modern "prospectors"; however, I am VERY glad I'm not one of them.
Absent the notion of collecting actually to have fun (!!), I'll never understand
why someone looking to invest would skip obviously successful cards,
in favor of guys who have never been to the plate, or taken a shot, or thrown
a football. Seems like I am affirming your opinion on this one.

I have one anecdote that has stuck with me about this topic. About 30 years
ago, I bought a box of baseball (can't even remember what company). The
box cost maybe $20, and I pulled a Tim Salmon insert card. I
took the card to a show a month later, and someone paid me $60 for the card.
I bought a Hank Aaron card with that money Trent King

Trent,
Thanks for your take on my post. I'll never for the life of me, understand it either. I will admit, I occasionally buy a modern box, just to rip open a few packs. Sure, cards today are more of a financial interest then they used to be, but I could never collect something I didn't like. I'll stick to my long retired players, when it comes to buying cardboard.

The Tim Salmon story is perfect for this example. Salmon was certainly no slouch as a player. A solid, consistent contributor, that many Angels fans have come to adore. He is certainly, no Hank Aaron though! Do you still have the Aaron? Would love to see the card you bought, if you still have it!

- James

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Let uneducated fools be fools. It's unavoidable.

[rjackson44]

Aston martin terrible investment austin martin even worse lol

[Gorditadogg]

Sure, vintage cards are safer than modern. Your cards' prices won't go up or down by as much.

If you are in the hobby to make money, though, you are still speculating. The fact is that for cards to have more value, more people must want to buy them. The question is, as us old farts die off and the new modern collectors lose interest and go away, who will that be?

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

[nineunder71]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Aston martin terrible investment austin martin even worse lol

This is Funny!

[Seven]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Aston martin terrible investment austin martin even worse lol

Octavio, that gave me a good chuckle. Couldn't agree more.

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Sure, vintage cards are safer than modern. Your cards' prices won't go up or down by as much.

If you are in the hobby to make money, though, you are still speculating. The fact is that for cards to have more value, more people must want to buy them. The question is, as us old farts die off and the new modern collectors lose interest and go away, who will that be?

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

I think there are enough younger people involved in the Hobby, especially on the vintage side that will keep it strong. The overwhelming majority of my collection, was either long retired or dead by the time I picked up their cards. Hell, Mickey Mantle, my main collecting interest, retired 25 years before I was born! When you're regaled with stories of Aaron, Mantle and Koufax in your childhood, you end up wanting to collect them!

[ClementeFanOh]

To Seven (James)- I agree, once in a great while I buy packs or a box just
to rip open packs

I no longer have the Aaron from the Salmon anecdote. He must have gone on
to bigger and better things. Trent

[Directly]

I'm in the category of buying the new, it sells, the key sell while the player are in hype speculation--my gig open the new, and sell for stupid prices--example--2019-20 Zion and Morant, 2020 Burrow and Herbert, 2022 Rodriguez, I've sold many new cards in the 500.00 range the list goes on and on every year, yep they could have bought a Mantle but not the big instant WOW hit $$$ return. A young buyer pulled a Jalen Green #10 RC graded a 10 sold for $3,000 and didn't think it was enough (?) out of a $15.00 pack so now he is hooked on the new like most younger speculators. I have put up many NEW unopened boxes ( probably too many) to cover the fascination of our younger generation buying habits.

[D. Bergin]

Why on earth would anybody spend 50K on a 37th round draft pick out of college, who hasn't done anything of note in the minors.

Almost seems made up.

About 10+ years ago, I filled up a decent sized storage locker with a vintage memorabilia buy from an auction house for a lot less then 50K...a looooooooot less. Made my money back many times over, and still sell stuff off from that buy on a regular basis.

[nineunder71]

I enjoy prospecting my Rockies (talk about a bad investment)

I enjoy it because they add to my collection and bring happiness. Regarding modern, I only collect what I enjoy, which is Rockies prospects and early Nolan Arenado cards.

There is No Doubt the Modern Prospecting world is a house of cards and it will tumble to zero.. Penny stocks is a great comparison. Most go to zero over time and a rare needle in the haystack pops now and then. The investors are hoping for the needle, collectors are just building for future enjoyment. (And doing so within a reasonable budget for that collector)

If that same guy in the story didn’t blow his 50K on a stupid purchase baseball card, he probably would have made a much better purchase with a non-fungible token of the same Austin Martin card. We can’t stop this and while I feel bad for all the people losing money they can’t afford....these are just hard lessons learned.

Now, Go Rockies! Our PR team says we have a chance at .500 ball this year

[Directly]

When some modern Lebron or Trout card sells for million's of dollars, what should we expect --yep they might open the right pack and hit the lottery so to speak--AH Please Keep the HYPE going!
Thanks Rockies for your Nolan Arenado plus Paul Goldschmidt??

[Johnny630]

Steven, it’s like a penny stocks impact on mega-cap blue-chip dividend aristocrats. The good major big names, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, and Mays 50’s and earlier quality high-end vintage aren't going down.

ZERO IMPACT

[notfast]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Why on earth would anybody spend 50K on a 37th round draft pick out of college, who hasn't done anything of note in the minors.

Almost seems made up.

About 10+ years ago, I filled up a decent sized storage locker with a vintage memorabilia buy from an auction house for a lot less then 50K...an looooooooot less. Made my money back many times over, and still sell stuff off from that buy on a regular basis.

37th round out of HS which he didnt sign. Then in 2020 he was the #5 overall pick.

Still dumb $ but he was a top guy.

[bbcard1]

I generally avoid commenting on these threads because it seems like we're saying "don't like things I don't like" but there is a different mindset to these collectors / investors. Say what you might about their strategy, they have brought a lot of attention to cards.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by notfast

37th round out of HS which he didnt sign. Then in 2020 he was the #5 overall pick.

Still dumb $ but he was a top guy.

Ah gotcha, didn't notice that. Had a nice 21 game run in Fall ball last year, but not much else.

[2dueces]

Most here are collectors. This guys is a flipper. Huge difference. He wasn’t putting that Martin card in a safety deposit box for his children. He was looking to cash in and speculate some more.
We as collectors ( most of the time collectors) look at $50k and wonder what we can add to our collection.
If people are willing to pay millions for fake 1 of 1’s of Lebron James than celebrate the hobby is alive and well.

[abothebear]

I have recently looked into prospecting a little bit, but hyper-focused on my fan interest, and not more than $20. What I have been wondering about is where is the sweet spot? You have 1/1s/3/5s and the like that are way too expensive to take a risk on buying. And even so, there are, for any given prospect, 20 different RC that come in those low-number versions. And step that up to the 20 / 50 / 99, level, and their 20 different issues, Then there are the 300 - 1000 numbered versions, and then the unnumbered but quantifiably less (like the unnumbered auto versions). Where is that prospecting sweet spot of low-risk entry point but still a chance for return? For instance, I see that you can find RCs of prospects that hit 8 years ago for under $200. What were these cards being sold for eight years ago? $200 doesn't seem like a return in value based on what people are paying for prospects right now. If you pay $200 for a 1/50 card and the prospect turns into a near immediate all-star, will the value even go up? Are people prospecting in hopes they'll b HOFers 25 years from now? Because that doesn't make sense. I'd like to get a card of a young pitcher in my team's system. I have good reason to believe he'll be a fun sensation of sorts. Yet pitchers are terrible investments, especially now that they don't even pitch 5 innings. There may never be another pitcher to be elected to the HOF once this nearly retiring generation is through. But let's suppose he does hit, and in 5 years is a top 3 pitcher in the mlb, and has a trajectory that could spell HOF. What cards would I want to have prospected on that would be paying off? Would the 1/300s, which I could get for $20 right now be anything?

I'm not looking for answers (unless you have some), just pointing out another layer to the prospecting game. The risk/reward is so out of whack that it is a wonder the market functions the way it does. But maybe there is a sweet spot where it can make a little bit of sense, especially if you have a fan investment of the player too. But I'm not sure where that sweet spot is.

[Tyruscobb]

Surely, the buyer was confused. He probably thought he was buying a used 2011 Aston Martin for $50,000.00, which is about the right price, and not an 2021 Austin Martin card.

These modern collectors/investors are crazy. They are purchasing cards that are priced as if the player will win X number of championships, Y number of MVPs, and will finish their careers not only as hall of famers, but inter sanctum hall of famers at that.

I’ll stick to boring vintage. Cobb and Mantle aren’t having bad seasons, potentially sustaining season or career ending injuries, or being accused of sexually assaulting women.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Seven

I think there are enough younger people involved in the Hobby, especially on the vintage side that will keep it strong. The overwhelming majority of my collection, was either long retired or dead by the time I picked up their cards. Hell, Mickey Mantle, my main collecting interest, retired 25 years before I was born! When you're regaled with stories of Aaron, Mantle and Koufax in your childhood, you end up wanting to collect them!

Good for you! I hope you convince your friends to be collectors too. Here's a modern Mantle to help bridge the gap.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Steven, it’s like a penny stocks impact on mega-cap blue-chip dividend aristocrats. The good major big names, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, and Mays 50’s and earlier quality high-end vintage aren't going down.

ZERO IMPACT

You are wrong. It takes someone(a future mega cap buyer) out of the marketplace, likely for good. It's all about supply and demand. People getting burned losing on the next best thing, tend never to return.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Steven, it’s like a penny stocks impact on mega-cap blue-chip dividend aristocrats. The good major big names, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, and Mays 50’s and earlier quality high-end vintage aren't going down.

ZERO IMPACT

I don't think there's necessarily zero impact. I think the people that want to stay in the Hobby, will do so, just go more into the vintage side of things once the modern market falls flat. I think we see vintage, stagnate for a small while. I do agree I certainly don't think the value of it goes down. But I think for the next few years, outside of the Cobbs, Ruths, and Mantles of the world, I can't see it climbing much higher. But I of course could be wrong.

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Good for you! I hope you convince your friends to be collectors too. Here's a modern Mantle to help bridge the gap.

I wish more of my friends collected! Very few do. Though I have one, that loves the memorabilia side of the game!

[butchie_t]

Here is my take: When prospecting, you never dig for young, you dig for old and go for the gold.

JMHO

[ALR-bishop]

Dig in a mine

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

You are wrong. It takes someone(a future mega-cap buyer) out of the marketplace, likely for good. It's all about supply and demand. People getting burned losing on the next best thing, tend never to return.

That’s your opinion. My opinion is people with money thinking about spending big on cards aren’t speculating on prospecting sorry not happening.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I'll get back into prospecting as soon as I break even on my Felix Jose hoard...

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

That’s your opinion. My opinion is people with money thinking about spending big on cards aren’t speculating on prospecting sorry not happening.

Ever go see a collection of cards? 99% are 1987 topps to 1993 topps. The "speculative" years. Those people never returned to the hobby. That's fact.

Whether or not they would have if not for the "greg Jefferies" hype and speculation, that is opinion.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Julio Rodriguez -- back up the truck!!

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Seven

Nothing is going to change CY Young's 511 Wins, Ruth's 714 Homers, or Cobb's 4189 Hits.

Funny, I remember when it was 4191 hits.

[Exhibitman]

[raulus]

The only thing that really seems to make sense is supply and demand, with a whole lot of irrational exuberance on the demand side and artificially suppressed supply.

In effect, people with way too much money to blow are paying handsomely for the right to be the only one to own this item. And everyone who is anyone right now is jonesing bad to have it now, because hot prospect #7 in the draft is bound to be the next big thing some day. So they bid like drunken sailors in an attempt to out-stupid each other.

And in the end, they pay richly for the privilege of owning it for a hot second until the next new shiny toy comes along and everyone has to have that one instead. Lather, rinse, repeat.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by raulus

The only thing that really seems to make sense is supply and demand, with a whole lot of irrational exuberance on the demand side and artificially suppressed supply.

In effect, people with way too much money to blow are paying handsomely for the right to be the only one to own this item. And everyone who is anyone right now is jonesing bad to have it now, because hot prospect #7 in the draft is bound to be the next big thing some day. So they bid like drunken sailors in an attempt to out-stupid each other.

And in the end, they pay richly for the privilege of owning it for a hot second until the next new shiny toy comes along and everyone has to have that one instead. Lather, rinse, repeat.

When I first started reading, I thought you were talking about the Ruth Baltimore News, haha.

[Stevetbaum]

I think prospectors are more likely than vintage collectors to be buyers of scratch off lottery tickets.

They buy them because they like the thrill of gambling. And there is a bit of research involved so they can pay themselves on the back if they “hit.”

No self-respecting person should play slot machines or buy a lottery ticket; yet surprisingly enough they do. Whatever is the underlying emotion that compels them to do that is likely what drove this guy to pay $50k for a card of nobody who wants to be a somebody but will never be an anybody.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Seven

I don't think any of us, are unfamiliar with this concept or term. I feel like It really took off in the late 80s (Greg Jefferies anyone?) with the hobby boom. With the recent explosion of the past few years, It seems like people are leaving themselves more open to huge financial loses. I feel like this is more prevalent now, than ever before in the social media age, with many younger people wanting to be "Famous Influencers."

The latest case that I ran into, was something I saw on Twitter. I mostly use the platform for breaking sports transactions, but this came across my page recently.

https://twitter.com/cblez/status/1623144423445131264

For those of you who can't see the link, It's some social media "card guru" that explains that he paid $50,000 for a 1 of 1 Austin Martin Signed Card, which has seriously tanked in value. Almost if like "investing" in these rookies is like playing with penny stocks. Never mind all the wonderful vintage he could have bought with that sum! As a side note, I'd love to hear what everyone over here would use that 50K for.

Back to the true point of the post, the outrageous prices of some modern cards, the minuscule chances of any of these players actually putting up numbers that would justify these insane prices, combined with the fact that "1 of 1" means nothing at all at this point, makes me think that that the modern market will fall to pieces in a similar way the hobby on the whole did, in 1994. I do however think that while it will drive the "new money" away from modern, those in vintage, or are getting into vintage, are here to stay. Nothing is going to change CY Young's 511 Wins, Ruth's 714 Homers, or Cobb's 4189 Hits. They'll continue to remain strong, and the new blood in the Vintage side of the hobby, will continue to be involved for years to come. What are everyone's thoughts on this?

A social media knucklehead with money doesn't make him a card guru - it makes him someone with money that hasn't got a clue.

I'd feel like an idiot telling everyone I spent $50K on a card that is going to be worth dog crap soon. Look at all the vintage stuff you can get for $50K - wow (ok, not near as much as lets say, 5 years ago). Complete sets, Cobb, Ruth and all the other one time hot rookies/players...

Let's say Tatis Jr actually puts up obscene numbers for the next 5 years. People will be jumping all over his 1/1s, shiny crap and rookie cards. What happens after he starts putting up normal numbers and reaches his 30th birthday and everybody is on the next potentially hot rookie/player. I have a difficult time believing those Tatis cards will continue to increase in value. Hell, by the time Tatis hits his 30th birthday, the whole phenomena/stupidity of buying all these crazy modern cards will probably be over. All those people that spent TONS of money on those cards will be wondering what happened to their "investments". That whole "asset class" of cardboard will become a passe investment strategy that turned into losses for the people that didn't have a clue. Oh, I guess I could be wrong - somehow, I think not.

[JollyElm]

I love these hobby 'influencers.' They influence me to never watch one of their videos or ever listen to a word they say about anything. Perfect.