First player to reach 3000 hits not to make the HOF?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Jim65

Rafael Palmiero will never make the HOF.

Originally Posted by Bored5000

I don't know that he has a "reasonable chance." We can play with the numbers a variety of ways to point out what he would need to average each season to get to 3,000, but a basic projection would be 150 hits per year for the next five years. Anything less than five years seems totally unrealistic, given what he would need to average each season.

That is a lot of hits in his late 30s for a guy who has never had more than 191 hits in a year (that was at age 23). Many/most guys hit a wall production wise in their mid to late 30s. It's not at all unusual for a guy that age to go from being a productive, everyday player to batting .220 in a platoon over the course of a single offseason.

If he was at 2,600-2,700 hits after this season, I think then he would have a reasonable chance. I think he is too far away from 3,000 for his age, There is a definite difference in the quality of players in the 3,000 hit club and some of the guys in the 2,700-2,800 range: Omar Vizquel (2,877), Harold Baines (2,866), Johnny Damon (2,769), Rusty Staub (2,716),

I understand your point, but he's been so amazingly consistent and healthy that, while a late 30's drop off is certainly a real possibility, I think 180 hits each of the next two or three years is equally possible giving him room for even a fairly rapid decline later. If he gets 360 over the next two years then he only needs 390 more in three seasons to get there by age 39. I could easily see a scenario like 180, 180, 150, 120, 120. If his decline were more gradual you could see something like 180, 165, 150, 135, 120, which still gets him there.

I did the math and thought an average of 150 hits per, while not a gimme, was reasonably possible, that's what actually led to the thread!