PSA 10's vs PSA 9's

[bcbgcbrcb]

This is not a new revelation in any way, but I believe that the difference in modern/ultra-modern card values between PSA 10's and PSA 9's has gotten to the point of absolute insanity. It is common practice these days for a 10 to sell for 10X-20X what a 9 sells for of the same card. As many youtuber's have demonstrated by cropping out the slab from the two card images, it is nearly impossible to tell the difference between two cards at that grade level. Correct me if I'm wrong but this anomaly seems to have developed rapidly during the COVID boom and continues on to today.

What are your thoughts on the future of this trend? Will collectors wise up at some point and realize it's not worth it to pay 10X to 20X for a holder with a 10 on it instead of a 9 for a card in virtually the same condition? Or will this trend continue and only see the disparity get greater over time? Of course, I realize that the responses here are going to be skewed by whether you are or are not a PSA 10 collector but many on the board here probably don't have a pony in this race and will give a completely objective opinion.

[Mike D.]

I buy mostly 9's because I can't see paying the premium. The only time this isn't the case is if I find a very good deal for a 10, or if the majority of graded copies of a particular card are in PSA 10 slabs.

[G1911]

I can't fathom paying 10X for a card because some corporation has told me it's a 10 instead of a 9. I can't even fathom paying 1.1X because a company has given its opinion that this card is Y grade. If I was blind maybe it would be useful.

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's stupid if you collect cards. It's not so stupid if you invest in flips. All depends on what you're doing and why.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's stupid if you collect cards. It's not so stupid if you invest in flips. All depends on what you're doing and why.

I would posit that putting your money into the momentary opinion of a random person of unknown credentials backed by a company with a long, long, long history of being wrong (at absolute best) is stupid even if you aren't a collector.

[bk400]

Perhaps I am a cynic, but I always wondered whether people submitting modern cards for grading would just slip an Andrew Jackson or two into the Card Saver as a gratuity for the grader. Being a returnee to the hobby, I can't say I'm an expert, but from what I can tell, the line between a 9 and a 10 for modern cards can be so slight and the difference in resale value so large that I cannot imagine that the graders themselves aren't capturing some of the value. Or at least tempted to.

[Leon]

A 10 can be a 9, and vice versa, on any given day. There is no difference.
.

[Rad_Hazard]

Originally Posted by G1911

I can't fathom paying 10X for a card because some corporation has told me it's a 10 instead of a 9. I can't even fathom paying 1.1X because a company has given its opinion that this card is Y grade. If I was blind maybe it would be useful.

For me it all depends on the card and why I'm collecting it. In this example, the 9 is horribly off-centered and the 10 is perfect. Sometimes even 10's are badly centered so I'll go for a 9.

In the case of the 89 Griffey in particular, I own a 9 because it's the best centering I could find.

[DocScoot]

Funny you listed the 89 Griffey as the example, I agree this is one where the grading has become beyond crazy, not sure if the price gap between 9 and 10 drives crazy grading criteria or vice versa. I just spent way too much money having about a dozen of these graded from my childhood collection. I had maybe 25, picked the dozen that I thought had a chance of grading a 10, if not I would have been happy with a 9. I've always been pretty OCD so these went right from pack to penny sleeve and top loader in 1989. Maybe half of those were perfectly centered front and back to my eye, with complete holograms. The hologram is what throws off the grade on a ton of these, no way to even get a 9 with an incomplete hologram anymore (didn't used to be the case judging from a lot of the 9s I see on eBay). Long story short, they all came back 7/8. Some of the 7s are clearly better than the 8s. One of the 8s has a folded over corner in the slab, clear damage during encapsulation. My guess is they're just beyond sick of seeing this card at PSA (I believe there are close to 100,000 of these registered) and largely are just hate grading these now with no care taken. Definitely would like my money back on the grading, but live and learn!

[packs]

Give me a PSA 9 any day of the week. I only buy 10's if they're a player I like but the hobby hasn't necessarily embraced yet. And only because they're cheap that way.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I would posit that putting your money into the momentary opinion of a random person of unknown credentials backed by a company with a long, long, long history of being wrong (at absolute best) is stupid even if you aren't a collector.

In flip investing the card is irrelevant unless the grade is just egregiously wrong. It's a commodity now.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Thus far, kind of the answers that I expected, with this being a primarily vintage forum. If I posted this same question on Blowout or Collector’s, probably a much different set of responses. As mentioned, going to highly depend on whether you are a collector or an investor. My main question is: does this price difference continue on indefinitely or does some type of correction take place in the short term?

[packs]

A 10 will always be a 10 and a 9 will never be a 10, so as long as there is grading a 10 will always outsell a 9.

[hockeyhockey]

i don't own a single 10 in my entire collection. all 9's from the 1980s to present. much lower from the 1920s to the 1970s. as peter said, the grades are moot if the cards are for your own collection...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

A 10 will always be a 10 and a 9 will never be a 10, so as long as there is grading a 10 will always outsell a 9.

Of course, but which is likely to appreciate by a greater percentage? I would say in most cases the 10.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

A 10 will always be a 10 and a 9 will never be a 10, so as long as there is grading a 10 will always outsell a 9.

A 9 will often be cracked and resubbed and get a 10.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

A 9 will often be cracked and resubbed and get a 10.

Back in the days of show bumps, you didn't even have to crack and resub, just review. A lot of the early Jordan 10s are reviewed 9s bumped for favored submitters.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I would love to buy, say, 100 PSA 10s from a certain online mass submitting dealer who has an insane number of 10s, break them out, and resubmit them as a man on the street submitter. My best guess is no more than 10 would regrade a 10.

[packs]

Originally Posted by G1911

A 9 will often be cracked and resubbed and get a 10.

I agree but as long as it’s in a 9 holder it won’t be a 10. My point was only that something in a 10 holder is king.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

I agree but as long as it’s in a 9 holder it won’t be a 10. My point was only that something in a 10 holder is king.

Obviously the difference is the slip says “10” if it’s a 10 slab and “9” if it’s a 9 slab. The discussion is whether this is completely arbitrary, makes any sense, and the massive price differential. Nobody is so stupid as to not realize the 10 slab says 10 on it lol

[packs]

I was responding to a question about whether cards in a 9 would close the gap on cards in a 10.

[seanofjapan]

I'm looking forward to when they come out with the PSA 11. It'll be a cool press conference.

PSA exec: "The numbers now go up to 11."

Reporter: "Ah, most grading companies just go up to 10."

PSA exec: "Exactly!"

Reporter: "Does that mean the cards are any better?"

PSA exec: "Well, its one better, isn't it? Its not a 10, its an 11, isn't it? Like say you are a grader at another company and you've got a card that is all the way up, all the way up at a 10, but you want to go higher. Where can you go from there?"

Reporter: "I don't know".

PSA exec: "Nowhere, exactly! What we do is if we need that extra push over the clifff, you know what we do?"

Reporter: "Put it up to 11?"

PSA exec: "Put it up to 11, exactly!"

Reporter: "Why don't you just make 10 the best and make 10 be the top number and just make that one the best one?"

PSA exec: (lengthy pause) "These go to 11."

[bxb]

The answer is simple.

If you submit the card, it is a 9.

If someone else submits the card, it is a 10.

[DocScoot]

While my last post was pretty down on the grading process, I did have a more recent experience that was a lot better. I'm just a nobody doing very small submissions from time to time, for reference. I recently submitted some Ohtani rookie cards that I had picked up raw on eBay over the years for next to nothing, hoping to get a few before the hype train. I submitted 7 of these that I thought were 10 contenders, and was thrilled to have 5 come back PSA 10, one in a 9, and just one in an 8. Pretty thrilled with those numbers! I do think it would be next to impossible to repeat this, and very much think the grade depends on the grader's mood that particular day, not a great system to be sure, but for trying to turn a $5-10 purchase into a $300 sale, there's not much of a choice but to play that game.

Originally Posted by bxb

The answer is simple.

If you submit the card, it is a 9.

If someone else submits the card, it is a 10.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bxb

The answer is simple.

If you submit the card, it is a 9.

If someone else submits the card, it is a 10.

This, but I would amend the first sentence to say 9 or 8.