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View Poll Results: What old baseball stat do you find the most overrated? | |||
Pitchers Wins | 27 | 40.91% | |
Batting avg | 3 | 4.55% | |
RBI's | 2 | 3.03% | |
Saves | 28 | 42.42% | |
Hits | 0 | 0% | |
other (please explain the one and why) | 6 | 9.09% | |
Voters: 66. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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You can use WAR to compare players between eras. Now, it won't tell you how Babe Ruth would do in today's game. You'd need a time machine to answer that question. But given what it took to win games in Ruth's time, it'll tell you how many victories above a replacement player he added to his teams. And given what it took to win games in today's game, it'll tell you how many wins above replacement ARod contributed to his teams, and those two figures can be compared.
And it's meaningful to compare them. Wins have value in the context in which they're produced - in particular, in the particular seasons in which they are produced. So WAR can help you figure out how much value Ruth produced for his teams, and how much value ARod produced for his. (N.B.: WAR doesn't actually measure value, but it can help with figuring it out.) Even if it's the case that if you put Ruth in a time machine he would only put up 7.5 WAR seasons in today's game, he still generated more value for his teams than ARod did for his. And yeah, Trout is really really good. |
#2
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I agree with this to an extent. The one issue just comes down to defensive production and our ability to quantify it has improved a ton over the last 10 years. The more back in time you go the less reliable defensive numbers are, so we might not have a very accurate picture of the value of some of these old timers. That being said, WAR is still a great "thimbnail" number to use to compare players. It's not perfect, but few things are. It does a well enough job for casual comparison.
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"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away."- Tom Waits |
#3
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WAR/plate appearance
I like Mike Trout, but it is very very very hard for me to believe that on a per plate appearance basis he is at this point the second best hitter of all time or anywhere close. What is driving his WAR to be so high, he has some nice counting numbers but they don't seem particularly overwhelming? Maybe a small part of it is that he hasn't yet obviously had the usual end of career decline, but that doesn't seem enough to explain it.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 08-27-2016 at 06:23 PM. |
#4
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"Maybe a small part of it is that he hasn't yet obviously had the usual end of career decline,"
That's a lot of it. It also helps that Trout is good at everything. He's a great hitter, a great base runner, and, well, an average-ish fielder. Trout has been in the big league for four full seasons. Year All-time WAR rank (position players only) 2012 22nd 2013 100th 2014 292nd 2015 87th 2016 212th (so far) If he keeps up his current pace his 2016 season will be worth 9.8 WAR, tied with Ty Cobb (1909), Nap Lajoie (1910), Ron Santo (1967), Larry Walker 1997), and George Sisler (1920), for 63rd best position player season of all time. That's really, really impressive. This will be fun. Some hall of famers and where their best season ranks all-time among position players: Ruth 1 Yastrzemski 3 Hornsby 5 Gehrig 7 Ripken 11 (tie) Wagner 11 (tie) Cobb 14 (tie) Mantle 14 (tie) Mays 16 Musial 18 Morgan 19 Williams 21 That's all of the hall of fame position players who have had a season better than Trout's best. The only non-HOF player with a season better than Trout is Bonds. Let's keep the list going a bit (and add non-HOF players). Collins 30 Foxx 30 Yount 30 Boudreau 37 ARod 37 Sosa 41 Banks 44 Rosen 48 Speaker 48 Petrocelli 52 Harper 56 Henderson 56 Trout's best season is better than any season Jimmie Foxx, or anybody else on this list, ever put up. Let's skip down a few spots. Carew 68 Griffey 68 Pujols 68 J. Robinson 68 Schmidt 68 Jackson 76 Beltre 82 If Trout keeps up his current pace for the rest of the year he'll have two seasons worth more WAR than these guys. Aaron 87 Biggio 87 Brett 87 Turner 87 As it stands he's already got two seasons better than any season these guys put together. It'll be three if keeps up his present pace for the rest of the year. Baker 100 Heilmann 100 Snider 100 Cash 107 Frisch 107 Giambi 107 Rolen 107 Vaughn 107 He's already got three seasons as good or better than these guys' best. It'll be four if he keeps up his present pace. And remember after this season he'll only have five full years in the big leagues. And that one season from Trout that's not turning up on these lists? That's the year that he won the MVP award. He hasn't had his decline phase yet, and that will pull his rates down. But Trout is really super historically good. He is often compared to Mantle, but by WAR Trout leads Mantle in age 20, 21, and 22. They were basically tied at age 23. It's not until Mantle's age 24 season that he posted a WAR more than marginally higher than Trout will at the same age (this is Trout's age 24 season). |
#5
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"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away."- Tom Waits |
#6
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__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 08-28-2016 at 03:00 PM. |
#7
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edit to add: Trout has had the 2nd best start to his career all time, but that doesn't mean he will end that way, using WAR ratio to games played or PA's says 2nd, but.... the guy is like 25, let's wait until he's 35 before making these claims as truths
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"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away."- Tom Waits Last edited by bravos4evr; 08-28-2016 at 03:32 PM. |
#8
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Like I said before, WAR is a counting stat just like Home Runs or RBI. So using WAR to compare which players are "better" can only be used when the length of time is similar. Mike Trout's average plate appearance brought as much value as every TWO plate appearances by Carl Yastrzemski (if you believe in WAR). This isn't even including external adjustments for time period. Trout is great, but Babe Ruth player at an even more dominant level on average through his entire career. Pretty amazing. |
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