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  #1  
Old 01-07-2018, 08:16 PM
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jhs5120 jhs5120 is offline
Jason Simonds
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Default The Baseball Card Index - 2017

I was bored today and created an index for graded baseball cards. Besides tracking the overall health of the market, I had a few questions in mind that I wanted answers to (when should I list cards, should I consign cards, are "Buy it Nows" more profitable than auctions, etc). This specific index is post-war baseball. I think I will make a few of these, the ones I have in mind are:
  • Post-War Baseball
  • Pre-War Baseball
  • Baseball Staples

Pre-War would be next, but I'll need to tackle a few different obstacles (PSA vs SGC, which cards have enough sales to make the data relevant, what cards will have reliable data, etc.). For this index, I initially selected 38 cards. They're all "star" cards in the $100-$400 range. It was important to select cards with 30-100 sales per year. I limited my search to Jan 1, 2014 through the present.

  • 1952 Topps Yogi Berra PSA 4
  • 1953 Bowman Pee Wee Reese PSA 5
  • 1953 Topps Satchel Paige PSA 5
  • 1953 Topps Roy Campanella PSA 6
  • 1954 Bowman Mickey Mantle PSA 3
  • 1954 Topps Willie Mays PSA 5
  • 1955 Topps Ted Williams PSA 6
  • 1956 Topps Yogi Berra PSA 7
  • 1956 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 6
  • 1957 Topps Duke Snide PSA 7
  • 1957 Topps Roberto Clemente PSA 6
  • 1958 Topps Ted Williams PSA 6
  • 1958 Topps Ernie Banks PSA 7
  • 1959 Topps Roger Maris PSA 8
  • 1959 Topps Frank Robinson PSA 8
  • 1960 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 7
  • 1960 Topps Brooks Robinson PSA 8
  • 1962 Topps "Managers Dream" PSA 7
  • 1962 Topps Willie Mays PSA 6
  • 1963 Fleer Roberto Clemente PSA 7
  • 1963 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 7
  • 1963 Topps Willie McCovey PSA 8
  • 1964 Topps Pete Rose PSA 7
  • 1964 Topps Bob Gibson PSA 8
  • 1965 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 7
  • 1966 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 8
  • 1967 Topps Roberto Clemente PSA 7
  • 1968 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 7
  • 1968 Topps Tom Seaver PSA 8
  • 1969 Topps Bob Gibson PSA 8
  • 1969 Topps Johnny Bench PSA 7
  • 1970 Topps Reggie Jackson PSA 8
  • 1970 Topps Nolan Ryan PSA 7
  • 1971 Topps Thurman Munson PSA 7
  • 1972 Topps Nolan Ryan PSA 8
  • 1973 Topps Willie Mays PSA 8
  • 1975 Topps Robin Yount PSA 8
  • 1976 Topps George Brett PSA 8

In total, I captured 5,831 sales for these 38 cards. Currently (December 2017) the "Post-War Index" is at $202.92, up only 1.24% from December 2016, but up 20.7% since January 2014. Below is the chart, honestly, it's not all that interesting.

Breaking it down by listing type revealed something we all knew, fixed listings realize higher prices than auctions - on average over 8% higher prices. I think it's interesting that there is virtually no difference between "Buy it Now" and "Best Offer."

Auction 185.44
BIN 201.14
Best Offer 201.03

Auction sales by day:

Mon 190.52
Tue 188.20
Wed 185.35
Thu 189.19
Fri 188.67
Sat 174.96
Sun 180.78

I think we all knew that Saturday was the worst day to end an auction, but who knew that Sunday was also bad!? Not me. According to this, you'll experience 5.38% higher sales on average ending an auction on Monday rather than Sunday (and 8.90% higher sales than on Saturday).

Sales by month was slightly more predictable:

Jan 179.70
Feb 185.62
Mar 192.59
Apr 180.85
May 196.05
Jun 188.29
Jul 188.57
Aug 191.77
Sep 182.83
Oct 184.82
Nov 173.79
Dec 179.16

Baseball season is the best time to list baseball cards (duh). The only thing I found interesting (but not all that surprising) is that there is no bump in December for Christmas.

Finally, the most controversial breakout is by seller. I grouped it by PWCC, Probstein, eBay Other (auctions) and Auction House:

pwcc_auctions 209.79
probstein123 182.58
eBay Other (auctions) 178.53
Auction House 220.44

PWCC realizes 17.51% higher prices than the average eBay auction. PWCC even averages higher prices than Buy it Nows! The Auction House figure likely is due to the ~20% buyers premium. Without the BP, Auction Houses are at $183.70.
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  #2  
Old 01-07-2018, 09:06 PM
STL1944 STL1944 is offline
Jim McKinley
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Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 137
Default Wow!

This is a fantastic analysis for data geeks like myself. Thank you for putting this together.
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  #3  
Old 01-07-2018, 11:06 PM
NYYFan63 NYYFan63 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 24
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jhs5120 View Post
I was bored today and created an index for graded baseball cards. Besides tracking the overall health of the market, I had a few questions in mind that I wanted answers to (when should I list cards, should I consign cards, are "Buy it Nows" more profitable than auctions, etc). This specific index is post-war baseball. I think I will make a few of these, the ones I have in mind are:
  • Post-War Baseball
  • Pre-War Baseball
  • Baseball Staples



Pre-War would be next, but I'll need to tackle a few different obstacles (PSA vs SGC, which cards have enough sales to make the data relevant, what cards will have reliable data, etc.). For this index, I initially selected 38 cards. They're all "star" cards in the $100-$400 range. It was important to select cards with 30-100 sales per year. I limited my search to Jan 1, 2014 through the present.




  • 1952 Topps Yogi Berra PSA 4
  • 1953 Bowman Pee Wee Reese PSA 5
  • 1953 Topps Satchel Paige PSA 5
  • 1953 Topps Roy Campanella PSA 6
  • 1954 Bowman Mickey Mantle PSA 3
  • 1954 Topps Willie Mays PSA 5
  • 1955 Topps Ted Williams PSA 6
  • 1956 Topps Yogi Berra PSA 7
  • 1956 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 6
  • 1957 Topps Duke Snide PSA 7
  • 1957 Topps Roberto Clemente PSA 6
  • 1958 Topps Ted Williams PSA 6
  • 1958 Topps Ernie Banks PSA 7
  • 1959 Topps Roger Maris PSA 8
  • 1959 Topps Frank Robinson PSA 8
  • 1960 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 7
  • 1960 Topps Brooks Robinson PSA 8
  • 1962 Topps "Managers Dream" PSA 7
  • 1962 Topps Willie Mays PSA 6
  • 1963 Fleer Roberto Clemente PSA 7
  • 1963 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 7
  • 1963 Topps Willie McCovey PSA 8
  • 1964 Topps Pete Rose PSA 7
  • 1964 Topps Bob Gibson PSA 8
  • 1965 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 7
  • 1966 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 8
  • 1967 Topps Roberto Clemente PSA 7
  • 1968 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 7
  • 1968 Topps Tom Seaver PSA 8
  • 1969 Topps Bob Gibson PSA 8
  • 1969 Topps Johnny Bench PSA 7
  • 1970 Topps Reggie Jackson PSA 8
  • 1970 Topps Nolan Ryan PSA 7
  • 1971 Topps Thurman Munson PSA 7
  • 1972 Topps Nolan Ryan PSA 8
  • 1973 Topps Willie Mays PSA 8
  • 1975 Topps Robin Yount PSA 8
  • 1976 Topps George Brett PSA 8



In total, I captured 5,831 sales for these 38 cards. Currently (December 2017) the "Post-War Index" is at $202.92, up only 1.24% from December 2016, but up 20.7% since January 2014. Below is the chart, honestly, it's not all that interesting.



Breaking it down by listing type revealed something we all knew, fixed listings realize higher prices than auctions - on average over 8% higher prices. I think it's interesting that there is virtually no difference between "Buy it Now" and "Best Offer."



Auction 185.44

BIN 201.14

Best Offer 201.03



Auction sales by day:



Mon 190.52

Tue 188.20

Wed 185.35

Thu 189.19

Fri 188.67

Sat 174.96

Sun 180.78



I think we all knew that Saturday was the worst day to end an auction, but who knew that Sunday was also bad!? Not me. According to this, you'll experience 5.38% higher sales on average ending an auction on Monday rather than Sunday (and 8.90% higher sales than on Saturday).



Sales by month was slightly more predictable:



Jan 179.70

Feb 185.62

Mar 192.59

Apr 180.85

May 196.05

Jun 188.29

Jul 188.57

Aug 191.77

Sep 182.83

Oct 184.82

Nov 173.79

Dec 179.16



Baseball season is the best time to list baseball cards (duh). The only thing I found interesting (but not all that surprising) is that there is no bump in December for Christmas.



Finally, the most controversial breakout is by seller. I grouped it by PWCC, Probstein, eBay Other (auctions) and Auction House:



pwcc_auctions 209.79

probstein123 182.58

eBay Other (auctions) 178.53

Auction House 220.44



PWCC realizes 17.51% higher prices than the average eBay auction. PWCC even averages higher prices than Buy it Nows! The Auction House figure likely is due to the ~20% buyers premium. Without the BP, Auction Houses are at $183.70.


Thank you Jhs for completing this very useful analysis. I have been back in the hobby since July and sensed that PWCC achieved higher prices compared to Probstein. Because of this, I have recently sent some graded vintage cards for Auction #1.

Thanks again!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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  #4  
Old 01-08-2018, 12:33 AM
Beastmode Beastmode is offline
J@ohn B.ar#ne.s
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 300
Default

This is a great idea. Are you open to revising your list of post-war cards?
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  #5  
Old 01-08-2018, 12:47 AM
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Bigdaddy Bigdaddy is offline
Tom J
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: VA
Posts: 390
Default

This is an awesome analysis. I'm sure that there is much more analysis you could do with the data, things like volatility and what happens to the supply (number of auctions) and demand (prices realized) after the death of an athlete (should you have enough data).

Thanks for the insight.
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Working Sets:
Baseball-
  • 1964 Topps Giants auto'd 46/60
  • T206 SLers, Virginia League 6/12
Basketball - 1971/72 Topps 226/233

Completed Sets:
Baseball - 1954 Redheart, 1956, '60, '61, '66, '67, '70 - '89 Topps
Football - 1970, '75, '76, '77, '78, '79 Topps

Last edited by Bigdaddy; 01-08-2018 at 12:48 AM.
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  #6  
Old 01-08-2018, 08:25 AM
cardsnstuff cardsnstuff is offline
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Posts: 165
Default

that is really cool; have you ever thought of doing by decade? Awesome work though.
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  #7  
Old 01-08-2018, 09:21 AM
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Snapolit1 Snapolit1 is offline
Ste.ve Na.polit.ano
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 2,239
Default

Cool stuff.

I think most AHs operate under the assumption that the summer months are weaker than the rest of the year, particularly the winter months, because people like to be out of the house in the summer or vacationing and won't be sitting at their computer. This doesn't seem to bear it out.

Last edited by Snapolit1; 01-08-2018 at 09:22 AM.
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  #8  
Old 01-08-2018, 09:31 AM
jhs5120's Avatar
jhs5120 jhs5120 is offline
Jason Simonds
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Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 708
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beastmode View Post
This is a great idea. Are you open to revising your list of post-war cards?
Definitely. I wanted to keep the “post-war” index free of any key rookies. I think rookies should be included in the “hobby staples index.” I think this is a good collection of star cards (but not necessarily key cards) from various Post-War years. I am open to any suggestions though, the more cards I add, the more accurate the data.

For the index, the required cards need to be:
  • Post-War
  • $100-400
  • Popular (30+ sales at that grade per year)

Even common players would be great to add. They just rarely meet the above criteria.
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  #9  
Old 01-08-2018, 09:40 AM
jhs5120's Avatar
jhs5120 jhs5120 is offline
Jason Simonds
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Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snapolit1 View Post
Cool stuff.

I think most AHs operate under the assumption that the summer months are weaker than the rest of the year, particularly the winter months, because people like to be out of the house in the summer or vacationing and won't be sitting at their computer. This doesn't seem to bear it out.
I need to see what the index looks like for hobby staples at a higher price point. I’m thinking of doing another in the $1,000-$2,000 range. This would be more in line with the auction house market.
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  #10  
Old 01-08-2018, 12:05 PM
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mechanicalman mechanicalman is offline
Sam Sw@rtz
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Posts: 685
Default

Wait a second. How are folks supposed to make irrational arguments based on limited observations now?

Surely I jest. This is awesome. I love data.
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