T206: What About Front Scarcity?

[quinnsryche]

After all the recent posts dedicated to T206 back scarcity I have a question. What about front scarcity? What I mean is, are certain players, regardless of the advertising on the back, just tougher to come across than others? Is a Bender portrait more difficult to find than a Wallace portrait (for example)? Do you see more Merkle portraits than Merkle throwing (for example)? Has a study ever been done (and available) that discusses how much tougher certain cards are to find (NOT Southern Leaguers) than others? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

[tedzan]

You cannot really separate T206 fronts from their backs for such a survey. Cards like Dahlen (Brooklyn), Demmitt
and O'Hara (St Louis versions), Elberfeld (portrait-Washington), and Lundgren (Cubs) are scarce just because of
the limited number of backs that these cards were printed with.

While all other T206's (not including Wagner, Plank, Magie, Doyle error) vary from easy to tough as a function of
the number of different backs they were printed with.....the more backs, the easier to find that particular front.


TED Z

[scottglevy]

Tony,

I'd strongly recommend a read of Scot Reader's book on T206's. I probably have an electronic copy somewhere as I'm sure many other Net54 guys do. It provides an excellent summary of the relative scarcity of various cards -- and also includes some neat info about the set and its production as well.

Regards,
Scott

[quinnsryche]

Ted & Scott, thanks for the insights. I guess my next question would be, do we know the print runs for any given card? Say for example, does anyone know for sure how many Powers with a Piedmont 150 back there actually were printed as opposed to another variety back. My point being, just because there are only X known Drum backs that doesn't mean there weren't 10's of thousands printed right. I use Drum strictly as an example since it is so rare. I may be talking in circles but I am trying to get my mind straight on this as one collector might say "boy that Hummel was a tough one to find for my set" and another might say "Geez, I've seen 20 this year alone". That's kind of where I was going with the original question of the thread. If I sound like an idiot, please tell me to pipe down!
Thanks again!

[Bosox Blair]

Hi Tony,

Others here have more expertise on T206 than I do, but I second the recommendation that you download a copy of Scot's publication on T206. It has a list he created of the scarcity of T206 subjects. He used grading pop reports to extrapolate and create his list.

I am certainly not aware of any available info on original print numbers. I'm sure we would have heard about it if anyone had such a thing.

Cheers,
Blair

[Potomac Yank]

1. No one knows the printed numbers of any given card.

2. Outside of the ultra super tough cards in the set, (Doyle/Wagner etc) toughness of a card is equal to the luck of the draw in a poker game.

3. Using a graders pop report can be deceiving, and inaccurate.
Do they keep tabs of the crossovers?

Tony you're not an idiot, those are good questions ... you just have to use the search engine a little bit more.

Stay well,
Joe P.

[tedzan]

Scot Reader estimates that approx. 1.5 Million T206's have survived in these past 100 years. This is probably a fairly
accurate number. Divide 1.5 Million by 500 subjects = 3000 cards on average per each T206 subject.

Players like Dahlen (Brooklyn), Demmitt & O'Hara (St. Louis versions), Elberfeld (portrait-Washington), Lundgren (Cubs),
Magie, Plank, Wagner were printed in significantly less numbers (100 to 500 each). Also, certain Southern Leaguers are
quite short of this "3000" number. And, only 8 cards of the Doyle error are known.

One more once, all indications (from several surveys) are that the Red Cobb is a DOUBLE PRINT....its population ranges
from 5000 - 6000 cards.

So, here in a "nutshell" you have a fairly accurate picture of the T206 population.


TED Z

[Potomac Yank]

3. Using a graders pop report can be deceiving, and inaccurate.
Do they keep tabs of the crossovers?

Also, without hiding behind the disclosure of the names, can you pin point the eight Doyles?

Is one of them the same card that was obtained during the same show that the Rosen/KO/SGC Fiasco occured?

[scottglevy]

Ted,

I have seen that estimate of 3,000 per card tossed around a bit as well. I tend to feel that it is an underestimation. Here is the basis of my reasoning....

Let's assume that our estimates of the O'Hara/Demmitt St. Louis population are relatively accurate and yield roughly 300 copies in each instance.

I would almost certainly conclude that a (pick one) Demmitt-O'hara is more than ten times rarer than a random common....based simply on the fact that Polar Bear T206 pop is likely less than 10% of total T206 pop.

If we assume that Jim R's scarcity order is correct (and it looks mostly right to me) Polar Bears are less common than 9 other back combos.

If we were to now conclude that PB is 5% of the total population this would mean that appx. 6,000 cards per subject remain. Any thoughts?

[tedzan]

1st....I personally think that there are approx. 500 each of these two cards (St Louis variations) in circulation. Perhaps,
for unknown reasons, there are a little less than 500 cards of O'Hara. I think you may agree that Demmitt appears more
often than O'Hara.

2nd....It is obvious that there were at least three press runs of POLAR BEAR cards. The first press run must have been in
the Spring/Summer of 1910 and included subjects in the 350-only series....of which the Demmitt & O'Hara were printed in.
From various surveys, it appears that this press run produced the lesser number of POLAR BEAR cards. The 2nd press run
included cards in the 350/460 series. From surveys, it is obvious that the greater number of POLAR BEAR cards were from
the 350/460 series press runs. Subsequent press runs of POLAR BEAR's included cards from the 460-only series.

Therefore, using the Demmitt & O'Hara population as a means of extrapolating the populations of regular T206's, I feel is
very tricky business. That very 1st press run (350 series) of POLAR BEAR's was relatively limited.


TED Z

[tbob]

Tony- I remember reading a booklet about 15 years ago which indicated the relative scarcity of certain poses of some of the players who had multiple cards in the T206 series. The first one which comes to mind is the Mordecai Brown smaller pose throwing which is tougher than the portrait or the larger throwing pose, but there were many others. When I put together the set I noticed that the writer was right on with his observations as some portrait poses seemed much tougher than the fielding or throwing poses and vice-versa. Years later, after reading some of the posts on this board I learned that the scarcity was attributable in many instances to the particular series' in which the cards were released. Not all T206s are created equal
tbob

[barrysloate]

All the "Cubs" across chest poses are tougher than the "Chicago" down shirt poses.

[JP]

Originally Posted by tedzan

1st....I personally think that there are approx. 500 each of these two cards (St Louis variations) in circulation. Perhaps,
for unknown reasons, there are a little less than 500 cards of O'Hara. I think you may agree that Demmitt appears more
often than O'Hara.

I have to disagree with almost all of this for several reasons. First of all, population reports prove that O'hara and Demmitt are almost exactly equal. Add all of the graded PSA, SGC, GAI and BVG numbers and they are virtually identical. Maybe someone is hoarding O'hara's, but they are most assuredly not more scarce. The numbers don't lie. Also of note, Memorylane has one of each in their upcoming auction, REA has 3 of each.

Secondly, there are not even 150 of each of these graded according to pop reports. When you consider cracks and resubmits (of which I have done at least twice for both of these cards over the years) maybe only half of those numbers are actual cards in current holders. So maybe 75 individual St. Louis Demmitts and O'haras have been graded. That HAS to represent more than 15% of the ones in existence as this type of card is far more likely to be encapsulated and protected than an ordinary common. I'd guess half of all Demmitts and O'haras are currently encapsulated, so maybe 150 of each exist?


SIDE NOTE: I think Demmitts and O'haras may be far more rare than people give them credit. "Magies" are referred to as one of the big four and are considered ultra-rare, but while 100 Demmitts and 100 O'haras have been graded by PSA, an astounding 84 Magies have also been graded. That card is not that much rarer, apparently.

[tedzan]

It is very, very naive to use any Graded Company's POP report to ascertain the number of any given BB card's population.

I can tell you, in the past 34 years that I've been in this hobby (as an adult), I know of at least 100 collectors that have
near complete T206 sets with the St Louis variations of Demmitt & O'Hara. There are many more Demmitt & O'Hara (St Lo)
cards than your "100".

And, your guesstimate......
" I'd guess half of all Demmitts and O'haras are currently encapsulated, so maybe 150 of each exist? "

Can only come from a collector who has no appreciation for the hobby (1970-1992) when every sportscard was ungraded.

But, those of you who want to continue to think that the POP reports are the "final word"......Hey, I'm not going to waste
my time trying to convince you otherwise.


TED Z