A Mantle Price Bubble?

[Delray Vintage]

I have seen 1952 Topps prices double in the past 5 years. I am the beneficiary since I have a PSA 6 which I bought for 18k. I am just wondering why this dramatic rise? I know it is always supply and demand. It seems collectors are holding them, as the REA auction did not have a quality mantle for sale this year. The 51 Bowman PSA 8 is going crazy at Memory Lane. Is this just all those wealthy Yankee fans who must have the early Mantles? Just wondering what you guys think. Will the bubble burst or will price rises continue at higher grades?

Bob

[ALR-bishop]

Bob--beyond the current supply versus demand for the card you mentioned, I do not know what else would be causing the increases you noted. I am not a Yankees fan ( a Cardinals guy) but I have 2 of them, a function of my compulsion to include all recognized variations with all my Topps sets.

There have been several recent thread in here with folks stating their intention to pursue this card. If you are a post war collector in general this seems to be the most "got to have it" card, and there seem to be a lot of 52 set collectors as well

[MattyC]

Good topic. I believe there is no "bubble," when it comes to 51B and 52T Mantles. Simply put, these are two of the most widely desired cards in the hobby, and they also both happen to be incredibly hard to find with great eye appeal.

Someone who has managed to get their hands on a really nice eye appealing 52T or 51B Mantle tends to know how special and desirable a card they have, and it tends to be a cherished piece that will only sell in crisis, death, or when exiting the hobby altogether.

By almost anyone's measure, even when including pre-war cards, the 52T Mantle is likely the #2 or #3 card in the hobby (for example, PSA ranks it #2, one spot after the Wagner and one before the Ruth RC).

Also, as collectors who were young boys in the mid 1980's-- when the 52T card was cementing its iconic status-- enter their prime earning years, they are seeking to obtain it. So we are seeing a fresh new wave of buyer join the men in their 50s, 60s, and 70s who desire the card.

I think the 52T Mantle has appeal that goes way beyond the Yankee fan base; it is perhaps the most recognizable card in the hobby, the one even non collectors have seen. It is basically the standard-bearer of cards.

I also think the prices of truly elite eye-appealling 51B and 52T Mantles will continue to surge. If a dead centered, solid blue background PSA 6 #311 shows up, I believe it will sail pass 50k at auction. Essentially, those without one want one, and those with a decent one dream of having a really nice one. Who knows what any mid-grade 51B with perfect centering and no vertical lines would fetch at auction.

The demand for the #311 card in particular is just enormous, end of the day. Between Mantle collectors, HOF player collectors, 52 Topps Set collectors, Top Sportscard collectors, and random collectors in between, it's a card on everyone's list. And if one has it, it's probably the last one they'd sell in an emergency.

[bn2cardz]

As someone that thinks it is way too overvalued now and has no intentions of getting one (at least prior to a 51 Bowman) I do think it is a bubble. Too many people are stretching themselves thin to get one and as people need funds to buy a house or pay medical bills it will be the first one to be sold and there are an abundance of them out there.

[MattyC]

If these hypothetical owners do sell them, there will be plenty of people (like myself) ready to buy them and hold them for long periods of time. And if people do sell, by the same logic there will be a waiting and hungry group of buyers (be they stretching themselves too thin or be they wealthy) ready to bid competitively on the card. So the mere act of anyone selling in no way ensures a drop in price. Unless, of course, all these hypothetical broke owners somehow go bust on the same day. And even then, the amount of ready buyers would support or drive up the price. Look what happened with a much, much less desired item: the 1975 Mini unopened hoard that flooded the market via REA years ago. Prices dropped for a moment, and now boxes have doubled since then.

No one has a crystal ball so there's no right answer here, but just curious, how can any of us know the specific financial situation of buyers? How can anyone tell if buyers of this card are "stretching themselves too thin?" Most guys I know who have one are quite solvent. Then we have guys like Bill and my brother in other threads, who are prudently saving up.

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Too many people are stretching themselves thin to get one...

This seems like quite an assumption, unless one has financial records of various buyers. I certainly haven't seen many great looking, centered examples of the #311 card being offered up by owners in recent years, who have gone bust to pay bills and now need money. Most of what is auctioned are the standard, tilted or OC or background-issue plagued examples.

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

...it will be the first one to be sold...

This statement also seems to presume what collectors have in their collections; one could just as easily take the counterpoint, that the #311 would be the last card a collector would sell. This would be in keeping with the safe bet that it is a collector's centerpiece. A collector may choose to sell all his "satellite" pieces well before parting with the heart of his collection.

Also, I always have had a problem with the notion of a collectible being "overvalued." People are paying what they are paying. These are the prices the card costs now. In the present, in this moment, each individual #311 is neither under nor overvalued. There is just simply what an owner paid. Now, some may think prices will go up, or will go down. But then we have to deal with the fact that because these are cards, each individual #311 is unique. It is always strikes me as folly when people try to codify or generalize the card market, or the market for all examples of a certain card. Cards aren't exactly like stocks or real estate. Because each #311 is unique despite a TPG sticker, each example will be more or less desirable to certain buyers.

Many variables can seemingly point to a downturn in one instant, with an ugly #311 selling for less than the previous sale, then the very next day a gorgeous example can surface and shatter the last sale. In this instance, is the card going up or down?

The answer is that it is all about the specific example of the card in question. One cannot group OC #311s or beaten-up, heavily creased #311s and the elite #311s, which are quite rare-- especially relative to demand. There is definitely not an abundance of elite, eye-appealing #311s out there. Middling examples I would agree are much more readily available

[Sean1125]

I don't think anyone should ever put "Mickey Mantle" and "overvalued" in the same sentence unless the words "will not ever be" are in between them.

Sean

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by MattyC

No one has a crystal ball.

Right, that is why I said "I do think it is a bubble", instead of " I know...".

Originally Posted by MattyC

But just curious, how can any of us know the specific financial situation of buyers? How can anyone tell if buyers of this card are "stretching themselves too thin?" Most guys I know who have one are quite solvent. Then we have guys like Bill and my brother in other threads, who are prudently saving up.

This seems like quite an assumption.

It is an assumption.

It is an assumption based on the psychology of people "keeping up with the Joneses". What I mean by stretching "themselves too thin" is by not being diversified, this one card can end up being worth more than someone's car or a year's worth of rent/mortgage payment, or aprox 2 months salary (based off $8k for mantle to the 2012 medium household income). So if this is over 10% of someone's total assets and an emergency comes up this card is going to be sold.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Sean1125

I don't think anyone should ever put "Mickey Mantle" and "overvalued" in the same sentence unless the words "will not ever be" are in between them.

Sean

Mickey Mantle is overvalued. His numbers in baseball don't equate to his value in cards. If his aren't overvalued then every other player has undervalued cards.

Don't believe me just compare his numbers to Musial or even better Mays.

Mays:
Black Ink Batting - 57 (21), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 337 (8), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 376 (5), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 76 (2), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (1st), 156.2 career WAR/73.7 7yr-peak WAR/115.0 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

Mantle:
Black Ink Batting - 62 (15), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 272 (17), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 300 (15), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 65 (22), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (4th), 109.7 career WAR/64.7 7yr-peak WAR/87.2 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

[MattyC]

Just using the numbers is a very reductive if not specious way to grasp Mantle's stature in the sport and hobby.

But rounding out the numbers, there is his still-record WS HRs to consider. The home run is the grandest, most popular act in the sport, and he did it more often than anyone else-- on the grandest stage. No doubt this contributes to his mythic stature. Now, is this a function of being on a good team? No doubt. But he happened to be on that team and he was the one who hit all those homers. And that is what the people remember.

When looking at Mantle, one must really look beyond numbers-- though in terms of peak, in terms of career OPS+, the numbers are great. Look where America was after WWII, and how planets aligned to create a hero. Mantle's looks, the team he played for, his very name, all these factors contributed to what he became.

In later life, his flaws, the way he spoke of them, the way he touched hearts by imploring people not to follow in his footsteps-- these are things that transcend what one can find on baseball reference.

Also, Mantle's numbers and the #311 card are two separate entities. A card has qualities and significance beyond the player depicted. Otherwise how could we ever see common player cards sell for bundles? Mantle's #311 is a hobby icon. Perhaps THE hobby icon after the Honus. It is probably on more want lists than any other card. It is the headline card of perhaps the most popular set in the hobby. These are things that are not tied exactly and only to his numbers.

Looking only at stats is like looking only at grade stickers and VCP grids when valuing and evaluating cards. It can lead one to miss a lot of the intangibles.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

What I mean by stretching "themselves too thin" is by not being diversified, this one card can end up being worth more than someone's car or a year's worth of rent/mortgage payment, or aprox 2 months salary (based off $8k for mantle to the 2012 medium household income). So if this is over 10% of someone's total assets and an emergency comes up this card is going to be sold.

So is your assumption that the majority of owners of this card are people with median 2012 household income? That's where I guess I respectfully differ and see a fissure in the logic. I'd contend that the majority of owners of this card, especially the best-looking examples, are not going bust anytime soon. Also, by extension that same logic would apply to any card worth in excess of 8k. Above all, this hypothetical overextended collector may just as possibly have other cards to sell first.

I think the vast majority of the owners of this card or other $8k+ collectibles are "The Joneses," as opposed to those merely trying to keep up.

[GregC]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think the vast majority of the owners of this card or other $8k+ collectibles are "The Joneses," as opposed to those merely trying to keep up.

First off, great topic. Matt, you really nailed every point I would have made both in regard to the reasoning behind the #311 climbing in value and the man himself.

I for one am after a #311 and just recently purchased a great 51B. Believe me, if I fall on hard times that 51 is the last to go. I'd likely sell my body before my Mick. I might even auction off my woman if I had to, my 51 is really well centered!

[Bestdj777]

I don't think the bubble will burst but I could see it leveling back out as the demand decreases again. I think a lot of the price increase recently had to do with the economy recovering a bit and the increase in discretionary funds.

For what it is worth, if I ever really needed the cash, my 52 Topps Mantles would likely be some of the first to go. They are expensive, but any time you want you can go on eBay and pick up a 51 Bowman or 52 Topps Mantle. Yes, you may have to wait for the perfect eye appeal (if that is your thing) or price, but you can find them. It could take a year plus to replace some of the other cards, if you are lucky...

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

As someone that thinks it is way too overvalued now and has no intentions of getting one (at least prior to a 51 Bowman) I do think it is a bubble. Too many people are stretching themselves thin to get one and as people need funds to buy a house or pay medical bills it will be the first one to be sold and there are an abundance of them out there.

I agree the allure of owning either one of these cards could spread somebody thin. That's what I am making sure I do not do. I have been working the last few months to rebuild my savings before I buy anything. I'm nearly at the point where I'm completely happy with that. Then, going forward, I'll add more to my savings, and budget a certain amount for my collection each month. I will be taking a set amount for Mick's '52 Topps card, putting that aside, and then working on all my other wants from whatever is left.

It might take me darned near forever to get it, but I think saving for it over time is the smart way to do it.

There's always going to be demand, but sometimes fortune favors not the bold, but those who are patient.

[phabphour20]

Question for you guys... I got a lead on a '51B that is currently slabbed as a BVG 4. It has some of the best eye appeal I have seen on a 51B. Nicely centered, good color, etc. But it has a small crease about .5" in from the bottom right corner.

My buddy is asking $3500 which feels rich, but it is a really nice example of the card. Is BVG more lenient on creases than PSA? PSA says in a 4 that a "light crease may be visible." I prefer my cards in PSA holders for several reasons.

I feel like $2500 is the right price for this card, but then I am not sure what kind of premium to put on a centered card that gets dinged for a crease that, in my opinion, doesn't take away from the overall eye appeal of the card. I have always wanted one of these for my collection but don't want to overpay terribly in case I ever need the cash.

Any thoughts?

[MattyC]

Centered 5s have been changing hands in the 5k zone. I know two centered 4s that sold at 4k and 4250. One was my brother's posted around here somewhere, if you want to compare. Maybe it was March pickups? Or you can PM GregC for a scan of his 4. So 2500 would be along the lines of highway robbery if it had great centering and eye appeal, no vertical print lines. FWIW, I think your buddy's ask is on the money leaning toward generous assuming it crosses. If he's your homie, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and then establish a fair price based on where it ends up in a PSA slab, given your preference. I'd buy as many nice 4s at 2500 as were offered to me. At 3500 if you ever wanna sell a 4 that looks like GregC's for example, I will give you cash.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Centered 5s have been changing hands in the 5k zone. I know two centered 4s that sold at 4k and 4250. One was my brother's posted around here somewhere, if you want to compare. Maybe it was March pickups? Or you can PM GregC for a scan of his 4. So 2500 would be along the lines of highway robbery if it had great centering and eye appeal, no vertical print lines. FWIW, I think your buddy's ask is on the money leaning toward generous assuming it crosses. If he's your homie, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and then establish a fair price based on where it ends up in a PSA slab, given your preference. I'd buy as many nice 4s at 2500 as were offered to me. At 3500 if you ever wanna sell a 4 that looks like GregC's for example, I will give you cash.

I hear what you are saying for sure. I'm gonna meet up with him and look at it again today. Maybe I can work him down to $3k... I'll emphasize the crease...

$2500 is the price that makes me happy, but I know some times I need to get uncomfortable if I really want to own a beautiful card.

Maybe he'll let me photograph it and I can get some better advice.

[GregC]

Here you go. I paid around $4k and still think it was a fair price. $3500 for a centered 51B, even one that crossed to a PSA 3 would be fair. Low and mid grade examples of this card rarely lack the dreaded vertical lines and almost always have major centering issues.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by GregC

Here you go. I paid around $4k and still think it was a fair price. $3500 for a centered 51B, even one that crossed to a PSA 3 would be fair. Low and mid grade examples of this card rarely lack the dreaded vertical lines and almost always have major centering issues.

That is beautiful. I'd basically be trading centering and photo quality for corners and the crease. Usually I am happy making that trade.

Anyone have a picture where the vertical lines are very pronounced? I find they sometimes don't come through in a scan.

Edit: These are really bad... eBay 51

[ALR-bishop]

Article is from 12-28-52 NYT

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by phabphour20

I hear what you are saying for sure. I'm gonna meet up with him and look at it again today. Maybe I can work him down to $3k... I'll emphasize the crease...

$2500 is the price that makes me happy, but I know some times I need to get uncomfortable if I really want to own a beautiful card.

Maybe he'll let me photograph it and I can get some better advice.

I agree, you will have to be prepared to go north of that comfort price; everyone would love to have a nice 4 for $2500, but that is just not a realistic expectation for the card in 4-grade. I hope you can get for that, it would be a deal for the ages. But even looking at VCP (while keeping in mind that many of the better examples I've seen have sold privately), the lowest sale on current record was $2639-- and it was for this pretty grotesque example below. For reference I've also attached pictures of all the other examples that sold between $2639 and $2950. All others have been over $3000. Given these facts, I can't fathom a nice 4 selling for anything below $3500. The seller could pretty easily get $4000 with some patience, if it's centered well...

As the scans below bear out, the PSA 4 51B Micks that sell below 3k tend to have extremely poor centering and focus.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Just using the numbers is a very reductive if not specious way to grasp Mantle's stature in the sport and hobby.

But rounding out the numbers, there is his still-record WS HRs to consider. The home run is the grandest, most popular act in the sport, and he did it more often than anyone else-- on the grandest stage. No doubt this contributes to his mythic stature. Now, is this a function of being on a good team? No doubt. But he happened to be on that team and he was the one who hit all those homers. And that is what the people remember.

When looking at Mantle, one must really look beyond numbers-- though in terms of peak, in terms of career OPS+, the numbers are great. Look where America was after WWII, and how planets aligned to create a hero. Mantle's looks, the team he played for, his very name, all these factors contributed to what he became.

In later life, his flaws, the way he spoke of them, the way he touched hearts by imploring people not to follow in his footsteps-- these are things that transcend what one can find on baseball reference.

Also, Mantle's numbers and the #311 card are two separate entities. A card has qualities and significance beyond the player depicted. Otherwise how could we ever see common player cards sell for bundles? Mantle's #311 is a hobby icon. Perhaps THE hobby icon after the Honus. It is probably on more want lists than any other card. It is the headline card of perhaps the most popular set in the hobby. These are things that are not tied exactly and only to his numbers.

Looking only at stats is like looking only at grade stickers and VCP grids when valuing and evaluating cards. It can lead one to miss a lot of the intangibles.

Mickey Mantle prices are inflated my marketing. He was a very marketed player on a very marketed team. His number one rank for WS home runs is offset by also ranking number one in strike outs. His batting average and slugging percentage in World Series play doesn't even rank top 10. He just played in more world series games.

When people that are collecting purely collecting for the history of the game and not built in hype I believe that Mantle's cards will even out. I am one that grew up in the 80s/90s when I thought Mantle was the best because that was what I was told by all the collectors around me. When I found out the truth his cards lost the allure, especially the 52 topps, there is no reason that card should out price the 52 bowman the way it does, other than hype.

That is the reason the card is where it is hype. Even you narrow it down to that:
"By almost anyone's measure, even when including pre-war cards, the 52T Mantle is likely the #2 or #3 card in the hobby (for example, PSA ranks it #2, one spot after the Wagner and one before the Ruth RC). "

"Also, as collectors who were young boys in the mid 1980's-- when the 52T card was cementing its iconic status-- enter their prime earning years, they are seeking to obtain it" (and since we are pointing out assumptions, this is one also)

Originally Posted by MattyC

So is your assumption that the majority of owners of this card are people with median 2012 household income? That's where I guess I respectfully differ and see a fissure in the logic. I'd contend that the majority of owners of this card, especially the best-looking examples, are not going bust anytime soon. Also, by extension that same logic would apply to any card worth in excess of 8k. Above all, this hypothetical overextended collector may just as possibly have other cards to sell first.

I think the vast majority of the owners of this card or other $8k+ collectibles are "The Joneses," as opposed to those merely trying to keep up.

The majority? I have no reason to believe that a majority are or aren't at median household income, but with thousands of this card out there it doesn't need to be a majority. The card isn't rare. I do believe (assume) that it is in the collection of majority of people that if funds were needed this would be the first to go to raise the funds the quickest.

It is easier for me to believe that the Wagner is only owned by the elite, because it is so rare and there aren't any original owners left (assumption). The 52 Mantle is still being found and sold from original owners or their children after the original owner passed away.


Again I just believe that as collector's are more educated about the history of the game and not just the marketing of it there will be less collector's looking for this card and, instead, looking for more rare cards. I can be wrong, and that is ok. End of the day this card is way over valued to me, as a person who cares more about the history of the game than the history of the hobby.

[MattyC]

I respect your opinion, and agree that it is all about parsing how different people collect-- some focus strictly on the game and player stats, others on hobby and card collecting history, too. I personally find cards like the Goudey Lajoie to be fascinating, famous pieces to the hobby, even though the card's value would seem not to correlate to the player's stats. If card values and stats were linked that rigidly then Babe, Lou, and Ted Williams cards should and would be worth a ton more. Berra had many seasons with 20+ HR and even fewer than 20 Ks, among numerous other gaudy numbers for his position, and his RC seems downright tragically undervalued in that light (of correlating card value more rigidly to player stats). I think, if we are looking at stats and impact to the game, the rookie card of Babe Ruth stands to be worth more than the T206 Wagner, but that's just not the case.

But whatever the factors that conspired to make Mantle and that card the beloved legends they are now to so many, I just don't see those minds ever changing. There are paintings some may believe more beautiful or less hyped than the Mona Lisa, but that image will always be iconic, and occupy that exalted perch. So to me, the factors that helped the #311 attain its status are somewhat moot, since it occupies the Post War baseball card throne, and no card will unseat it. But obviously no one is forcing anyone to buy one-- if someone doesn't like the card like others do, to each his own.

I just don't see increasing amounts of collectors doing a comparative stat analysis on baseball-reference, and suddenly the card loses its aura and status. I wish for some cards the reverse would be the case, especially for Gehrig, Ted Williams, Musial, Berra, and DiMaggio, to name a few. Take DiMaggio's Zeenut Batting-- quite rare, his first appearance, amazing numbers, lost time for the war, but for some reason it costs a fraction of what some high-graded modern cards sell for.

In the end, only time will tell. My friendly bet is that a decade or two from now, the card is still going strong as ever.

One point I would hang a lantern on is the notion of the card being rare or not. Rarity alone is not always the main driver of a card's value. I think demand relative to supply trumps sheer numerical rarity. And those after the card, from around age 30 to age 60, will likely be around for the next twenty years. And I don't see their interest in the card waning due to a stat-driven epiphany. Yes, there are over 1000 Mantles, but how many are terribly OC or tilted or creased? How many highly desirable specimens exist, as compared to the wealthy collectors out there who seek the best-looking cards, and will bid against each other spiritedly to secure such a strong piece? I think that relationship will be what drives the prices of the best looking examples, over time.

[brian1961]

I owned the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle for 22 years. I miss it terribly. I can honestly say if the number of specimens grew to 5,000 or 50,000, I would still ravenously desire the card! Not rare? What do I care? If I don't own one, I'm still one of the tens of thousands of collectors on the outside looking in. If "everybody" owned one, I'm still without that card, and not loving the fact I will probably never own it again.

A few years ago I emailed Joe Orlando the same sentiment as the gent who expressed the fact that kid collectors from the 70s, 80s, and 90s who saw the card, and saw what the card did to their dads, had a seed of deep desire planted that is now growing to the point where some of them still have the red hot desire, and will finally be able to purchase a beautiful example--and have the delight of sharing it with their dads, if they're still alive.

Unless one to five cases of pristine 52 Topps high numbers are found, the bubble will not burst. A find of this magnitude would be interesting, but why waste life pondering that vastly remote possibility. ---Brian Powell

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I agree, you will have to be prepared to go north of that comfort price; everyone would love to have a nice 4 for $2500, but that is just not a realistic expectation for the card in 4-grade. I hope you can get for that, it would be a deal for the ages. But even looking at VCP (while keeping in mind that many of the better examples I've seen have sold privately), the lowest sale on current record was $2639-- and it was for this pretty grotesque example below. For reference I've also attached pictures of all the other examples that sold between $2639 and $2950. All others have been over $3000. Given these facts, I can't fathom a nice 4 selling for anything below $3500. The seller could pretty easily get $4000 with some patience, if it's centered well...

As the scans below bear out, the PSA 4 51B Micks that sell below 3k tend to have extremely poor centering and focus.

The pricing is a bit different for the BVG 4s than the PSA ones. If it were PSA I probably would have taken him out at 3250 already and called it a day. I am worried about the cross since it has a small crease. EDIT: I just checked the BVG data on VCP and the numbers are quite stale. Given the subject of this thread, I can probably assume $2600 would not be the average today...

But I just looked at it again... centered with no print lines. Just the crease taking away from it.

[MattyC]

Sounds like it would land in a PSA 4. Maybe even 4.5 on a good day. Would have to see it. Again, if he's your buddy and you want certainty, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and go from there.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by brian1961

I can honestly say if the number of specimens grew to 5,000 or 50,000, I would still ravenously desire the card! Not rare? What do I care? If I don't own one, I'm still one of the tens of thousands of collectors on the outside looking in. If "everybody" owned one, I'm still without that card, and not loving the fact I will probably never own it again.

A few years ago I emailed Joe Orlando the same sentiment as the gent who expressed the fact that kid collectors from the 70s, 80s, and 90s who saw the card, and saw what the card did to their dads, had a seed of deep desire planted that is now growing to the point where some of them still have the red hot desire, and will finally be able to purchase a beautiful example--and have the delight of sharing it with their dads, if they're still alive.

Very nicely said.

Brian,

On a related note, my two kids see how I love beholding the card, and that it has a special significance to me; now they now go right for it whenever they ask to go through my cards.

[phabphour20]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Sounds like it would land in a PSA 4. Maybe even 4.5 on a good day. Would have to see it. Again, if he's your buddy and you want certainty, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and go from there.

Yeah, not that good of a buddy... we've just done a lot of business together in the past.

He said he is very firm. I can think of better things to own right now, I'll probably move on.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Mickey Mantle is overvalued. His numbers in baseball don't equate to his value in cards. If his aren't overvalued then every other player has undervalued cards.

Don't believe me just compare his numbers to Musial or even better Mays.

Mays:
Black Ink Batting - 57 (21), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 337 (8), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 376 (5), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 76 (2), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (1st), 156.2 career WAR/73.7 7yr-peak WAR/115.0 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS



Mantle:
Black Ink Batting - 62 (15), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 272 (17), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 300 (15), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 65 (22), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (4th), 109.7 career WAR/64.7 7yr-peak WAR/87.2 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

Most or all of the above simply emphasizes quantity over quality. The Mick is one of just 8 or 9 players with a runs created per 27 outs figure greater than 200% of league average (a Bill James stat which I believe best measures the offensive value of a player, and automatically corrects for different conditions and eras). Mantle was at around 215% of league average (going by recollection of calculations made several years ago for various upper echelon HOF'ers), which placed him 3rd or
4th of all time (Williams was first, at 250%, while Ruth was second, at around 240%). Mays, on the other hand, was around 180%, which, while excellent, left him nowhere near Mantle. Musial was around 193%--great, but still significantly quite a ways behind in this purely objective, but immensely meaningful statistical comparison. Lest you doubt the significance, OBPS+ (on base % plus slugging % compared to league average, a stat widely accepted insofar as its relationship with offensive production is concerned) correlated quite well: 171% for Mantle; 156% for Mays. Mantle also scored more runs per game, and had a far higher on base percentage at .421, one of the highest of all time, while, going by memory, Mays was no better than around .380. Quality of play while both were active? Mantle, by a wide margin, which is why James rated him the 6th best player of all time (while Mays often had similar totals in the glamor stats, he was making about 60 more outs per year than Mantle to get them, due in large part to far smaller walk totals--studying games will rather quickly reveal that the team which takes longer to use up its allotted outs most often wins the game).

Career value leads to a different conclusion, since Mays' greater longevity gave him higher totals, but Eddie Murray had far higher totals than Johnny Mize and Hank Greenberg, two of the greatest first basemen of all time--would anyone in their right mind suggest that Murray was a higher quality player than either?

My conclusion is that while I believe the value of Mantle's '52 Topps card is in a bubble, propped up in too great a measure by elements of demand that are both speculative and transient, in light of the quantity of cards that are out there, he was unequivocally not overrated as a player.

Interesting discussion, and best wishes to all,

Larry

[Brianruns10]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

I have seen 1952 Topps prices double in the past 5 years. I am the beneficiary since I have a PSA 6 which I bought for 18k. I am just wondering why this dramatic rise? I know it is always supply and demand. It seems collectors are holding them, as the REA auction did not have a quality mantle for sale this year. The 51 Bowman PSA 8 is going crazy at Memory Lane. Is this just all those wealthy Yankee fans who must have the early Mantles? Just wondering what you guys think. Will the bubble burst or will price rises continue at higher grades?

Bob

Logically one would think the Mantle shouldn't be so expensive. It was a double print. The Eddie Matthews is far, far scarcer, yet worth only a fraction.

The key to remember is that the Mantle transcends the hobby. It's a symbol of value and rarity. It's an American icon, right up there with Coca Cola and Norman Rockwell. There are many who seek this card for its notoriety, and as an investment.

So while the card has a larger population relative to other high numbers in the 52 series, there is also a much larger group of people who want it, to the exclusion of the other cards in the set. Some might buy the Mantle and nothing else, just to say they've got one. So the ratio of available Mantles to interested buyers is significant, hence the higher price.

[MattyC]

Two quick anecdotes...

So one time a few years back I was in the office of a big baller, pitching for a project. Somehow we got around to our mutual love of baseball. I mentioned I collected cards. His response: "One day I'm going to get myself a 52 Mantle."

I was just in Las Vegas, at a restaurant bar with some friends. I had a picture of the 52 Mick on my phone, and some guys a few feet over warmly commented, "Hey! It's The Mick!" I asked them if they collected cards. One's response: "No, but I remember that card from when I was a kid. That's the famous one."

[Brianruns10]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Two quick anecdotes...

So one time a few years back I was in the office of a big baller, pitching for a project. Somehow we got around to our mutual love of baseball. I mentioned I collected cards. His response: "One day I'm going to get myself a 52 Mantle."

I was just in Las Vegas, at a restaurant bar with some friends. I had a picture of the 52 Mick on my phone, and some guys a few feet over warmly commented, "Hey! It's The Mick!" I asked them if they collected cards. One's response: "No, but I remember that card from when I was a kid. That's the famous one."

Exactly. I'd wager more people than not, if shown that card, would know that it's the valuable one.

[Volod]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Article is from 12-28-52 NYT

Thanks for posting that item, Al. Since the '52 Topps Mantle card was generally priced at the same level as the other high numbers in 1967 - a whopping one buck - it seems that the big hike in "value" actually took place in the 1980's, when card collecting hype itself hit the stratosphere. To the extent that investment remains a substantial part of the hobby, the card's price will probably contine to be inflated, but not as the result of a 30-year-old "bubble."