Baseball Card Investment/Finance Question

[xdrx]

Situation: You have a stack of post-war Topps superstars cards with market value of approx $20,000. You have no desire to keep these cards. They are basically an investment at this point. You don't need the cash in the short term.

Questions: Do you keep them, thinking they have a good chance to outperform many investment options and are relatively risk free? Or do you sell them now and put the cash in the investment option of your choice given your longer term needs? Note, there is no option to sell them and buy more cards. That would be too easy.

[almostdone]

Is the approx. of $20k as a lot or selling them off one at a time?
Drew

[xdrx]

Originally Posted by almostdone

Is the approx. of $20k as a lot or selling them off one at a time?
Drew

One at a time. Good question.

[almostdone]

Originally Posted by xdrx

One at a time. Good question.

I think you would have to take in to consideration the time investment as well then. But now or later it still will take a huge chunk of time unless you just have two 52 Topps Mantles to sell

[steve B]

Just as it would be for stocks, it would depend on exactly which cards. Some have probably peaked, and will have fairly modest appreciation over say the next 10 years. Others will continue to do better, and a few others will decrease a bit.

And being collectibles, the condition matters as well. is the 55 Clemente g-vg, or a solid ex or better?

And how long term are you considering? If you want to maximize returns over the next year, selling and investing in something else is risky, but more likely to bring bigger returns.

Steve B

[Doug]

Since the presented situation says I don't need the cash, I would just hold onto them. That's based on the guess that I must have been in pretty good shape financially to begin with if I had an extra $20k to spend on baseball cards.

[xdrx]

Originally Posted by Doug

Since the presented situation says I don't need the cash, I would just hold onto them. That's based on the guess that I must have been in pretty good shape financially to begin with if I had an extra $20k to spend on baseball cards.

Well, you probably spent way less than $20k back 25 or 30 years...But capital gains are an entirely different topic.

This is what I have been doing with my cards - just holding on to them because I have no real reason to sell them. It's also the crux of this thread: Will they outperform the market over the next 10+ years? steve b made an excellent point in that the details matter. Which cards, in what condition, and what investments will you make if you sell the cards?

I guess the question should be more about the baseball card market and less about comparison vs other investments. Baseball card sales track with the economy, I suppose, but beyond that what can we expect? I would think that baby boomers have created some of the strong demand that fuels card value, as they reached middle age and beyond with disposable income and memories of Willie, Mickey and the Duke in their heads. But when those boomers start to disappear, and families sell off collections, we may see more supply than demand for post-war Topps superstars.

[novakjr]

Personally, I don't think cards will hold up with the market. Sure, the value in dollars shouldn't drop, but the value of those dollars probably will, especially with baseball cards being a primarily American investment, with little to no international value.. If, and this is a big IF, you can find something that's guaranteed to increase in value, or at the very least hold it's value exponentially with inflation, then I say go ahead and move 'em...

[Leon]

I am with Steve in my thinking of this one. I would look at the big cards in the group and see what I thought their value was today vs where it might go....ie nicer examples should do better over time, given the nature of collectibles and discretionary income to start with. Then make a decision and move on. I will have to say though, if everything were exactly equal investment-wise, I would rather look at cards than a bank account.

[novakjr]

Originally Posted by Leon

I am with Steve in my thinking of this one. I would look at the big cards in the group and see what I thought their value was today vs where it might go....ie nicer examples should do better over time, given the nature of collectibles and discretionary income to start with. Then make a decision and move on. I will have to say though, if everything were exactly equal investment-wise, I would rather look at cards than a bank account.

Agreed. If completely equal, I'd rather look at the cards, all day, any day..

[xdrx]

Thanks for the thoughts everyone. Lots of good points being made. Poll results show almost 2:1 in favor of selling cards, which I was a little surprised by, but I guess collectors like to have more cards in circulation.

[xdrx]

Any different thoughts after watching the market today? Yikes

[Doug]

Originally Posted by xdrx

Any different thoughts after watching the market today? Yikes

After the hit my retirement fund just took I think I want to change my vote from hold onto my cards to cash out what's left of my IRA and buy more cards instead...

[Zach Wheat]

Funny, Doug. I am sure a lot of us feel the same way about taking a hit on retirement accounts. Taking retirement dollars and investing in cards is known as the Leon strategy. However, I don't think I will ever have the knowledge he & others have about cards.

I think the original question has many facets to it. As previous posters said, it really depends upon what cards you have as well as what you are going to invest in. I feel most high grade HOF'ers and other high end cards are a great "investment" right now and will do well in the long run. Commons and other cards, I am not as sure about. Conversely, there are other traditional investments I wouldn't dare to plunk a dollar in to in today's market. Interesting question.


Zach Wheat

[Doug]

Originally Posted by Zach Wheat

Funny, Doug. I am sure a lot of us feel the same way about taking a hit on retirement accounts. Taking retirement dollars and investing in cards is known as the Leon strategy. However, I don't think I will ever have the knowledge he & others have about cards.

I think the original question has many facets to it. As previous posters said, it really depends upon what cards you have as well as what you are going to invest in. I feel most high grade HOF'ers and other high end cards are a great "investment" right now and will do well in the long run. Commons and other cards, I am not as sure about. Conversely, there are other traditional investments I wouldn't dare to plunk a dollar in to in today's market. Interesting question.


Zach Wheat

Maybe we can get Leon to start the first vintage baseball card ETF. We can all just pool our retirement savings into it and let him invest our money in vintage cards. He could post scans in the pickup threads so we can keep an eye on our portfolios. Sounds like it would be more fun (and probably more profitable right now) than regular mutual funds.