REA is beautiful, but browsing bids leaves me depressed

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Posted By: Ed

Too many fat wallets make me feel like I will never touch the greatness of some of those items. I know, wah wah, poor me.

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Posted By: barrysloate

There are more affordable items in the auction too. Not everyone can own a 1914 Babe Ruth but you can still find something to add to your collection.

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Posted By: Steve M.

Happy to report I received my catalogues though unhappy to report that FedEx left them on the stoop and it is snowing like crazy here (IL) today. Thankfully they are in waterproof mailers.

As an aside I did get two. I see from the mailing label that I have two bidder numbers. I should probably let REA know as these things are damn expensive.

And finally, I did not get the rare "Return to Mastro" return address variation.

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Posted By: Brian

So much for a "market peak." The bids are already going through the roof, and they are far from closing price. Great stuff indeed, but how do they come up with those absurd estimates? They are not even close to reality. I guess they are trying to avoid scaring us off.....
Brian

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Posted By: Jason L

regarding the estimates in the catalog...because those are the only thing I can cling to for hope of ever being in the market for some of these things....sadly, the truth is I am many multiples away, financially...but fun to look at nonetheless!

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Posted By: barrysloate

I'm puzzled as to why the bids are so high so early. When I checked the 1914 Ruth yesterday it had 33 bids and was at 100K (it may already be higher). And that's in the first 24 hours.

Does anyone expect to win the lot on the second day? There are still two and a half weeks to go. What can be gained from all that early bidding?

Edited to add I now see it has 35 bids. And I am certain that is not 35 different qualifiers. Is there already a bidding war going on?

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Posted By: Alan

I completely agree. I's totally depressing that I have no chance in hell to win any lot.

Alan

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Posted By: Max Weder

Barry

With apologies to F. Scott and Papa, the rich are very different from you and me, they win more auctions.

Max

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Posted By: Bill K

I concur Ed, but what really gets me as I'm sure it does everyone....wouldn't it be great to "discover" some of these cards? 1914 Ruth & team, a Plank or two, etc, etc, etc.

Sure is fun to waste the day at work perusing though!

Especially since we're getting 9" of BLEEPING snow today. Had to move a golf lesson to next week....sigh....sometimes I hate Wisconsin.

Bill

My personal collection - http://s47.photobucket.com/albums/f176/fkm_bky/

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Posted By: Jim Clarke

Still no catalogs on my end here from REA. Fed-Ex is by far the worst company to use. They do NOT have their act together for rural areas of the Country. They outsource delieries to smaller companies. Plus if you have ever signed a Fed-Ex sticker in your life that was left at your door they claim that gives them permission to leave ANY package at your door without having a signiture.. Use USPS.. It's the safest way! JC

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Posted By: leon

Anything but overnight or 2nd day Fedex sucks, imo...and I have a lot of experience in shipping as I ship at least 5 million dollars a year of computer equipment....I have my Mastro catalogs...got them yesterday. No REA yet....and I too live in a smaller suburb.....I guess Fedex ground is the best shipping cost? Still, I have placed many bids on line in both auctions...but the catalogs are great...I was late to work this morning because of the Mastro ones ......

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Posted By: barrysloate

Max- while I agree that rich collectors can bid as they choose, isn't the goal to actually win the card? They can keep bidding all day long if they want, but the winner will be the one who puts in the last bid on the last day. It's not an issue of wealth, but one of poor strategy.

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Posted By: George Dreher

<Is there already a bidding war going on?

yes there is

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Posted By: dstudeba

Barry -

I think the reason for some of the strong bidding is that only one person can win an item at a certain price. While 10 people may pay $3000 for an item, only the first one who gets there will be able to win it for that price. For the item I really want in REA my absolute max was $X. I put that bid in Monday morning so I could secure that price level.

I was outbid by Monday afternoon

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Posted By: barrysloate

George- assuming you are correct, and I tend to agree with you, exactly what is being accomplished? I'd make you a wager (if there was some way to determine it) that none of the people who are fighting for the Babe Ruth card today will ultimately win it, and that the eventual winner has quietly placed his qualifier and will not come back until the end.

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Posted By: peter chao

Barry,

I thought the goal was to bid and not win so that I could get the catalogs. At these bid levels...I'm having troubles even doing that.

Peter

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Posted By: Cat

This is an auction that I have adjusted my strategy. Instead of focusing on one or two cards "that I have to have" I have preliminary bids on 30 and will figure out which cards I'll pick up on the last day(s). I might pick up five that reach my budget amount or I might pick up one higher cost card, but I will start making those decisions on April 26th at 10 pm PST. Be light on your feet. That's the key.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Good one Peter

You know you could bid on a million dollars worth of lots if you could be guaranteed to be the underbidder.

The best strategy IMO is to qualify on as many lots as possible, do as much homework as you can, and try to walk away with one or two or three good values. If you have to extend yourself a bit by purchasing large lots, you will have no trouble selling the extra cards and recouping some of your initial outlay.

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Posted By: paulstratton

Just got mine and I'm on the Left Coast, in the middle of nowhere.

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Posted By: George Dreher

Barry, agree with you about the bidding wars accomplishing nothing.

Peter, no need to win even one lot to get a catalog. Just placing a bid/bids should ensure you receive one.

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Posted By: Dave

I believe the high bids are indicative of the current state of vintage sports material. when you turn on CNBC and the host is saying that sports collectibles are as safe as buying gold it's ridiculous. I know the guy was just kidding, but this type of "hype" is all over the place. Everything pre-1920 is all of the sudden "rare" and "scarce". My brother and I are bidding on about 10 lots in the REA , but don't expect to win a single lot after looking at the current bids. We were willing to bid generously on a few lots, but they have already exceeded what I think they are realistically worth. Notice I use the word realistic.
I wish there was a way to discover the entities that win some of the lots after the both auctions end. I know of one financial planning firm that is bidding on lots as a company for investment purposes. they have almost unlimited funds to spend thanks to 2 "angel" donors who loan them money and let them pay it back whenever they can. I can't compete with bidders like that, which is why I don't participate in these large auctions. I also feel that the final prices realized for many items won't stand the test of time....therefore affecting the card collecting hobby in a negative way.

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Posted By: peter chao

Dave,

Your right, the collectibles market needs to stabilize. Big jump in prices lead to inevitable large drops. After, the Hobby Buzz caused by the sale of the Gretzky T206 Wagner dies down, the market should stabilize...hopefully.

Peter

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Posted By: Justin

I only recently started collecting vintage, and am having trouble gauging what the market is going to do. I am collecting primarily low-grade stuff, but even that seems to be increasing in value by leaps and bounds.

Has anything like this gone on before in vintage? What happened after the boom?

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Posted By: nbrazil

I hear what you're feeling, Ed. I am planning to bid on only one item...a low grade example of somewhat scarce card...and it's already above my 2nd threshold (I have 3 thresholds...the 1st is the "Okay, it's reached my ideal price...but i want the card, so i'll still bid". My 2nd is "Oh oh, this is trouble. re-evaluate my need and want for the card and bid accordingly." My last threshold is "Next time, I guess.").

I dont bid too often on the big auctions like mastro and REA, but when i do im blown away pretty early. That's why private transaction and even ebay is better for me.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Justin- I've been active in the hobby since the early 1980's, and while I have seen peaks and valleys I have never seen anything like what is going on now. The market seems to defy gravity but you have to wonder if it will go on forever. Obviously, it can't, but nobody can really explain this phenomenon either, other than rich people seem to be getting a whole lot richer.

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Posted By: peter chao

Barry,

I basically agree with you. Also, I would add that people are leery of buying stocks because of the dot.com bust, and the real estate market is lukewarm. So buying collectibles is something they can do now until the other markets start picking up.

Peter

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Posted By: Justin

So with that in mind, how does the low grade stuff(particularly T206 and HOF RC's) stuff stand as an investment? That's not really why I am collecting, but I don't want to get sucked in to overpaying on stuff that won't hold its value.

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Posted By: peter chao

Justin,

If I were buying at these auctions...I would look carefully at both the PSA and SGC registries. Then try to buy highly graded commons before the registry guys get to them. The registry guys generally are more focused on the big ticket items, so maybe they won't notice the highly graded common.

Peter

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Posted By: Justin

I was thinking more in general. I almost exclusively use ebay, as the big auction houses tend to auction really high end, high graded cards.

I am dealing primarily with psa 1-2 cards. But I notice like a Cobb T206 psa 1 will go for 500, and I have no idea if that is a realistic or decent price to pay, or if it is merely a surge. I do have an account at vintagecardprices.com and that helps alot, but still it seems like every time I look for something it has gone up in value.

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Posted By: peter chao

Justin,

Look for SGC cards with good eye appeal. If you crack them out and resubmit to PSA you may be surprised with a higher grade.

Peter

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Posted By: bruce Dorskind

Last week, we predicted that the combined revenue for the Mastro and REA
auctions would exceed $25M. It now appears that our prediction will be too low.

The REA Auction is perfectly timed. We predict that the final total
(with th prices realized) will be about $13.5 million.

The top 20 lots will average in excess of $50,000.

There will be at least 50 lots which realize (with buyers premium) $25,000 or more

And over 150 lots which realize $10,000 or more.

The truly exceptional items have not appeared in auctions within the past 2-3 years.

Whilst Dimaggios and Ruths graded 8 are fairly common, even they tend to do
better in REA auction because of the fiercely competitive nature of the participants.

If one really "must have" a rare, graded card or exceptional piece of memorabilia,
then one should expect to pay 50-100% more than the highest price realized
in any previous public auction.

One excellent measure of just how rare some of the cards are is to go to
vintagecardprices.com and note that at least 65% of the "super rare" pre WWII
cards have not traded in a public auction in the past 2 years. We realize,
of course, that VCP only recognizes public sales of graded material, but we
believe it to be an excellent barometer.

When it comes to the super rare cards in the best grades extant, REA and Mastro
probably have a 75%+ marketshare... and that draws the BIG MONEY.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: Steve f

It's spelled thermometer

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Posted By: Jason L

perhaps it won't be long until we see someone produce a real-time ticker display to show all these escalating card prices/values!
you know, like stock ticker tapes...

logically, though, Barry is right...it cannot continue forever...prices will stabilize and then go cold at some point when this generation runs out of money and people have decided to sit on their collection for awhile...no?

When the market heats up, people decide to pull their stuff out of the closet and cash in...then isn't it reasonable to expect that it will be some time before this kind of collection turnover occurs again?

thoughts?

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Posted By: peter chao

Jason L.,

Whether I pull the cards out of the closet, would depend first on whether I had these kinds of cards, I don't, so I'm just speculating here.

It makes a great deal of sense for investors to be selling here, although the Gretzky T206 Wagner sold at a record price, it did not appreciate as much as other Hall of Famers in the T-206 set did during the last 7 years. Also there are rumours that the Wagner was trimmed earlier on.

So the investor would want to take advantage of the splash made by the 2.35 sales price of the Wagner and sell now while selling is good.

On the other hand the well-heeled collector would be going the other direction. Their thinking I haven't seen such good stuff on the market for a while so they would probably be buying.

Peter

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Posted By: Bob

The REA catalogue reached the Ozarks yesterday. Since I had already placed many bids, I was glad to see it. I noticed that several of you hang on to these catalogues (REA, Mastro, Lelands, etc.)after the fact, for years and years. I generally chuck mine the next day, too many memories of cards I would like to have won but didn't

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Posted By: peter chao

Bob,

You sound like the true collector here, what do you think about the escalating prices at the REA.

Peter

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Posted By: Josh Adams

Did the entire Dorskind group predict this, or just you, Brucey my boy?!


Go Go White Sox
2005 World Series Champions!

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Posted By: peter chao

Josh,

Quit picking on Bruce, let's ask him a serious question. What do you think Bruce? Is there more investor money selling or buying at the REA and Mastro auctions?

Peter

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Posted By: Dylan

The market needs to stabilize you say? The market has been in a boom ever since the early days of the internet. As long as the internet is growing, i cant see how are market will stop growing, i think the two are attatched at the hip.

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

That's a good point Dylan. I too think the internet is responsible for helping the market expand by making so much material available. I know a lot of people get misty eyed thinking about the good ol' days of weekend card shows and 400 page SCD's but how many of them would do away with ebay and the internet to go back to the good ol' days?

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Posted By: peter chao

Dan,

There's no doubt that the internet has expanded the market, but where can you go nowadays to bull**** about sports and cards for a couple of hours on a Sat. or Sun., this forum is great but it's not the same.

Peter