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  #61  
Old 01-19-2019, 12:40 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
Garth Guibord
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Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie View Post
I picked on Celtics fans b/c the other day I was bidding on a T205 WAJO sgc 50 that I won for under a grand. I clicked on the sellers "see other auctions" and there was a Jayson Tatum at $4600 with an hour to go and 26 bids. I just thought it was humorous. There is a Jayson Tatum card with a BIN of $200,000.00 on eBay. My post was in response to Pete's title that states "some vintage card prices going crazy."
Nice score on the WaJo! I'm with you on the modern stuff. But it's not just crazy, it's bat-sh!t-insane-asylum crazy.
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  #62  
Old 01-19-2019, 12:46 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
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Originally Posted by SAllen2556 View Post
It's just easier to take a chance on something like baseball cards right now because....what the hell. I'm not gonna earn money putting it in the bank. If you have cash, what's the point of buying a 6 month cd? Interest rates on savings accounts are basically zero, and have been for years. Interest rates on Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth > 0.

....until the next MLB work stoppage, that is.

People are also buying classic pickup trucks right now too. Unfortunately, I don't have enough room in my garage. I wonder how coins are doing?

Attachment 341331
This is a good point, I think. I'm not sold that a herd mentality would be the biggest factor in prices driving up - and in particular, that's because the herd mentality didn't work very well with the Koufax rookie market manipulation a couple years ago. If a herd mentality is all it takes, that card would have stayed at the inflated prices. And FWIW, the fact that that manipulation didn't seem to have a long-term impact makes me think that the hobby is probably in a healthy place.
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  #63  
Old 01-19-2019, 01:03 PM
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rats60 rats60 is offline
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Originally Posted by AGuinness View Post
Nice score on the WaJo! I'm with you on the modern stuff. But it's not just crazy, it's bat-sh!t-insane-asylum crazy.
Recent sales on modern cards
Playoff Contenders Tom Brady RC 12433.00
National Treasures Stephen Curry RC 12700.00
Bowman Chrome Mike Trout RC 19750.00
Upper Deck Exquisite Kevin Durant RC 40105.00

t206 cards are cheap. We have been collecting for so long that we have become oblivious to price increases in the hobby. I bought the cards discussed here for 20-50 dollars. Cobbs for 100-200 dollars. Back then modern rookies were 1-5 dollars.

There are several factors here. Investors shifting money from other investments to high end vintage. Also, modern collectors who are used to paying 500-1000 for a pack of cards and selling modern cards for thousands of dollars shifting to vintage. Neither group is concerned with what these cards sold for 5, 10 or 35 years ago. They see a track record of gain in hobby staples and that is where they want to park their money.
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  #64  
Old 01-19-2019, 01:24 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
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There are several factors here. Investors shifting money from other investments to high end vintage. Also, modern collectors who are used to paying 500-1000 for a pack of cards and selling modern cards for thousands of dollars shifting to vintage. Neither group is concerned with what these cards sold for 5, 10 or 35 years ago. They see a track record of gain in hobby staples and that is where they want to park their money.
I guess I see the modern market as a much different beast than the vintage one, perhaps even so much so that they are separate markets altogether. What happens in one doesn't necessarily have much bearing on what happens (or might happen) in the other. So I don't necessarily see the speculation in the modern market having a strong connection to what is happening to prices in the vintage one.
In that way, I don't believe that adage, "a rising tide lifts all boats" for cards. A record sale for a PSA 6 1952 Topps Mantle doesn't necessarily mean anything for other 1952 Topps, other Mantles or even other graded 1952 Mantles, and even less for cards from other eras of other players. And sometimes a card is even a market unto itself.
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  #65  
Old 01-19-2019, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by AGuinness View Post
I guess I see the modern market as a much different beast than the vintage one, perhaps even so much so that they are separate markets altogether. What happens in one doesn't necessarily have much bearing on what happens (or might happen) in the other. So I don't necessarily see the speculation in the modern market having a strong connection to what is happening to prices in the vintage one.
In that way, I don't believe that adage, "a rising tide lifts all boats" for cards. A record sale for a PSA 6 1952 Topps Mantle doesn't necessarily mean anything for other 1952 Topps, other Mantles or even other graded 1952 Mantles, and even less for cards from other eras of other players. And sometimes a card is even a market unto itself.
Maybe in the past, but that line is disappearing. I see more and more guys that collect modern cards looking to enter the vintage market. Guys "invest" in a young player and hit it big, so they look to put part of their profits into key vintage cards that don't have the risks involved like modern cards do.
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  #66  
Old 01-19-2019, 03:30 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
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Maybe in the past, but that line is disappearing. I see more and more guys that collect modern cards looking to enter the vintage market. Guys "invest" in a young player and hit it big, so they look to put part of their profits into key vintage cards that don't have the risks involved like modern cards do.
But isn't that an example of moving the money into a different market? I'd like to make a perfect comparison, but I'm sure this will be clunky as I'm not well versed on investments: I see your example not unlike somebody making money in one investment (derivatives, perhaps?) and going into something else (blue chip stocks, I suppose). I don't think those would be grouped together in the same market, just as I don't think vintage and modern are in the same market.
There are certainly factors that overlap with modern and vintage cards, but I guess I see many factors that are different, particularly the artificial scarcity of the 1/1, the gambling on an unfinished career (prospecting), etc.
Perhaps this is all semantics, but from my point of view, there are enough differing factors and influences that it creates a separation of markets in which what happens in one doesn't necessarily have a bearing on the other.
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