Aaron Judge

[packs]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

I know this is a tangent of a tangent, but why does anyone think this about Mariano? He was just a great closer when that position started becoming more integral in the game. He wasn't a once in a lifetime, he was just the first great closer. You look at Craig Kimbrel, a pitcher that was groomed for the position, and he is better than Mariano was.

Seriously? He is perhaps the greatest inning by inning pitcher of all time. Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all. First off, Kimbrel has only been pitching for 8 seasons. Mariano pitched for 19. Everyone knows that closers burn out bright, which is what made Mariano's career remarkable. Kimbrel could easily be Papelbon two seasons from now.

Secondly, Mariano will always be a legend for what he did in the post season. In the World Series, the penultimate moments of any season and career, Rivera has a 0.99 ERA over 24 games. Over 96 career post season games Rivera's ERA is 0.70. No one will ever be as clutch or automatic as Rivera was.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Yeah, when he got beaten in a big game -- as he did by the Sox in 04 of course -- it was an event. He should be in the HOF for his nickname alone.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

Seriously? He is perhaps the greatest inning by inning pitcher of all time. Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all. First off, Kimbrel has only been pitching for 8 seasons. Mariano pitched for 19. Everyone knows that closers burn out bright, which is what made Mariano's career remarkable. Kimbrel could easily be Papelbon two seasons from now.

Secondly, Mariano will always be a legend for what he did in the post season. In the World Series, the penultimate moments of any season and career, Rivera has a 0.99 ERA over 24 games. Over 96 career post season games Rivera's ERA is 0.70. No one will ever be as clutch or automatic as Rivera was.

Ok so because Kimbrel's career isn't over we can't compare them? That has become the root of this entire thread. I understand that Mariano played 19 seasons.

Let me compare Kimbrel's first full seasons (2011 to 2016) to Mariano's equivalent (1997 to 2002). Also keep in mind that Kimbrel's first full season as closer came at age 23 compared to Mariano age 27.

Kimbrel:
391 Games / 380.2 IP
255SV/280SVO = 91.07%
WHIP: .935
ERA: 1.94
SO 606
SO9 14.3


Rivera:
368 Games / 404.1 IP
238SV / 272SVO = 87.5%
WHIP: 1.021
ERA: 2.25
SO 338
SO9 7.5


This isn't to say that Rivera wasn't great, but there is nothing in these stats that would merit someone stating "Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all". I will state it again, Mariano appeared to be the greatest because he came into the position when it was still in its inception. Now, though, player's are groomed for the position. Kimbrel was groomed as are others that will follow him in. I do understand that Kimbrel would have to play 11 more seasons to match Rivera's career but he may be able to accumulate the stats quicker with the pace he is on., but that doesn't change the fact that inning for inning, Kimbrel is starting out on pace or better than Rivera did.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah, when he got beaten in a big game -- as he did by the Sox in 04 of course -- it was an event. He should be in the HOF for his nickname alone.

His losses became a story, but Kimbrel giving up a hit was considered a bad outing in an ESPN article today:

Craig Kimbrel had a bad outing Thursday.

He actually allowed a hit.

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/p...s-of-home-runs

[packs]

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by packs

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

Innings pretty much. Mariano faced more batters and likely did it against better opposition, in tougher ballparks, and also did it right in the heart of the steroid era.

Even then, as a reliever, most weren't running out and buying up Mariano rookie cards. He started old and most expected him to peter out. It wasn't until many years later when people realized what a generational talent he was.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I think we're a couple of years away from fairly comparing Kimbrel. I am rooting for him.

[yanksfan09]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think we're a couple of years away from fairly comparing Kimbrel. I am rooting for him.

Yea that's the thing. Longevity is key for closers. You see tons of guys have a great 4-8 year stretch maybe but then fall apart. It's hard to remain dominant in the later years. Also, so much of Mariano is his stellar playoff performance.

Kimbrels been great but, It a bit like saying Mike Trout is as good as Ted Williams, just too soon to make any comparison. Not saying it can't happen either though.

[yanksfan09]

This thread needs a little shiny eye candy...

I've been less and less into newer cards over the years and am mostly all vintage but must admit that Aaron Judge has caught my fascination and just "had to have" some of his stuff! As a Yankee fan, this has been awesome to watch, at least for Judge. The crippling recent injuries and rough stretch is another issue altogether! I realize the ride could stop at any time or at least slow down with Judge, and don't advocate buying into Judge right now as any great sure fire long term investment, but sometimes you just need to have fun!

Thankfully I got these early enough in the real crazy run up, think all are probably going for 2x or more what I paid.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

I don't know what 8 years you are comparing for Mariano, but Kimbrel hasn't played a full 8 seasons yet. So you can't compare 8 seasons. For the years I compared (Kimbrel's full seasons 2011-2016, and Rivera's first 6 full seasons as a reliever 1997-2002) then the numbers are Kimbrel 13.6 and Rivera 17.5. This still puts the favor in Rivera, but not nearly the difference you have. It also backs up my theory, though, that Rivera didn't have many comps when he played. Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

On this subject of the game changing here is an interesting article from earlier this week:

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news...a1drgug56ipj9x

[packs]

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

I took the years 1996 through 2003, the first 8 years of Mariano's career as a relief pitcher. His war was 26.0. Even if you cut out 2003 because it was a full season and Kimbrel's in the midst of a full season, Rivera's war was still 22.4, considerably higher than Kimbrel's and during the height of the steroid era.

Again Kimbrel hasn't played 8 years. He hasn't finished this season, and didn't break RC status in 2010.

Mariano was not a full time closer in 1996, he was a setup man. He had 107 innings that year and only had 8svo. Closer WARs are always lower, it doesn't favor part time pitchers. So you can't use that season to compare to a closer.

I gave you the most comparable stats I could. The first 6 full seasons of closer duty for both pitchers.

[packs]

If those are the parameters then I don't think it's really worth discussing them yet. Rivera was an elite full-time closer for 17 of his 19 seasons. Kimbrel has been a full-time closer for only 6 seasons. It's like trying to compare Altuve to Cobb. Altuve had 985 hits after his first 5 full seasons, after 5 full seasons Cobb had 1058. I don't think Altuve will be within 100 or so hits of Cobb when he retires.