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  #11  
Old 10-11-2017, 02:33 PM
steve B steve B is offline
Steve Birmingham
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I doubt there will be another 52 Mantle sort of situation anytime soon. It's got all the things that make for a really expensive collectible.

It's not common at all, but not so rare that someone couldn't find one.
The subject is incredibly popular, even across generations.
Bonus for the subject being possibly the biggest star from the biggest media market, And that he was that star at just about the perfect time.
It's got a good backstory, maybe not as good as the Wagner, but the fewer produced/not necessarily available everywhere/Excess unsaleable inventory being dumped off a trash barge by the company is a pretty good one.

Today there's too much access to the players for them to be as revered as the players in the 50's.
The PED era leaves most of us with just a bit of doubt/mistrust.
Cards are widely collected, so most get saved as opposed to thrown out.
Companies just don't usually operate in ways that would lead to a great backstory, and if for some reason they did we're all too jaded to find it amazing.

Imagine if Mantle had played for Kansas City, and was regularly in the paper for drinking too much and saying crass things, and the High numbers had hung around the warehouse for a decade or two until they got sold to the Christmas racks makers. No matter how great he was his card would be just another star card.
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  #12  
Old 10-11-2017, 03:23 PM
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nat nat is offline
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"Imagine if Mantle had played for Kansas City..."

...the Yankees would have traded Johnny Hopp (or whomever) for him, and everything else would be unchanged.
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  #13  
Old 10-12-2017, 11:33 AM
Jenx34 Jenx34 is offline
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Just to add to what others have said....

There can't be another card like the '52 Mantle because:
1. Cards have been somewhat commoditized (is that a word?). There are printed values so the awareness of even every day non-collectors is there? How many people try to sell their baseball card collections and think they are sitting on a lot of money before ultimately realizing the junk era wasn't going to be their retirement?
2. Piggybacking off that, many people see baseball cards as an investment now. It's no longer a hobby. What Beckett and PSA have done to the hobby is kill the casual hobby part of it. For many that's not a bad thing, but it changed everything.
3. I'm not into modern cards at all, but it does seem interest is higher than it has been in a long time. But that interest is in how many autos, relics, etc you find, and the rest are throw aways. That may not be a ton different from earlier years... We were all looking for the superstars when we opened packs, but we weren't looking so that we could turn around and sell that autographed card for $1,000 right out of the pack.
4. I also wonder what so many options will do to the business 10-15 years ago. How many different cards can Topps make? Topps, Topps Chrome, Stadium Club, Finest, Allen & Ginter, Gypsy Queen, Archives, Heritage, Definitive Collection, Fire, Gold Label, Topps Now, Bunt, Museum Collection, Bowman, Bowman Chrome, Platinum... Hell my head hurts now. Will too many options cause confusion over what to collect and ultimately lead to people losing interest or will one of these become that Holy Grail if a player becomes a superstar?
5. Lastly, as someone else pointed out there is too much access. Too much baseball on TV. There is no longer any mystery about a player. Word of mouth details about players lives is now photos and social media put out immediately. Even though everyone know who Mickey Mantle was, it was still rare to be able to see him play unless you were in an American League city. How often could you watch the Yankees on TV in the 50's? With no mystery, I believe, nothing like the '52 Mantle can happen again.
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  #14  
Old 10-12-2017, 05:28 PM
Volod Volod is offline
Steve
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nat View Post
"Imagine if Mantle had played for Kansas City..."

...the Yankees would have traded Johnny Hopp (or whomever) for him, and everything else would be unchanged.
Hah, KC was a long-time NY farm team - even after it putatively joined the majors - so, the Yankees would have just brought him up by demoting a couple of marginal players to the A's. If he had been found by another team before the Yanks, that team's owner likely would have turned him over for a case of cracked bats. Roger Maris was an example of that process.
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  #15  
Old 10-12-2017, 05:54 PM
ls7plus ls7plus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leon View Post
Not baseball but...

Jordan rookie

.
Interesting thought. Jordan is the only player (other than perhaps Tom Brady) since Mantle who has dominated like Mantle (one of just seven players in all of baseball history who created more than 200% of the runs created by a league average player in the course of his entire career (with the others being Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Gehrig and Joe Jackson--Mays and Aaron, in comparison, were each in the 180% range); 12 pennants won in his first 14 years, and seven WS championships). On the negative side regarding the '86-87 Fleer: print run has been estimated at 200,000.

Highest regards,

Larry

PS: Jordan probably is the only athlete since Mantle to have made a similar impact on the professional sports scene.

Last edited by ls7plus; 10-19-2017 at 04:36 PM.
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  #16  
Old 10-13-2017, 10:25 AM
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RaidonCollects RaidonCollects is offline
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Just adding to my previous statement, the Mantle card had so many different factors which contributed to the cards' fame.

1. He was a superstar, everyone knew his name by the mid-50s.
2. Iconic design ('52 topps).
3. Relative level of scarcity (while there are rarer early mantle cards like the '52 Berk Ross, the 52 Mantle's popularity was immensely boosted by it's notoriety for being tougher than many other 52 cards).
4. Interesting stories about the card, such as the tale of the NYC Harbor '52 high# cases (even if it may be made up).
5. Made in a important year for the player (most of the time a rookie, or in this case a year off being a rookie).

An example of a card that comes fairly close is the Billy Ripken 89 Fleer, which fits into 1, 3 and 4 (less so 1, but he was still a very noteworthy player).

The chances of this all happening again in the near future are quite low, but I think it is entirely possible.

Just my thoughts,

Owen
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  #17  
Old 10-13-2017, 02:53 PM
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rats60 rats60 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ls7plus View Post
Interesting thought. Jordan is the only player (other than perhaps Tom Brady) since Mantle who has dominated like Mantle (one of just seven players in all of baseball history who created more than 200% of the runs created by a league average player in the course of his entire career (with the others being Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Gehrig and Joe Jackson--Mays and Aaron, in comparison, were each in the 180% range); 12 pennants won in his first 14 years, and seven WS championships). On the negative side regarding the '86-87 Fleer: print run has been estimated at 200,000.

Highest regards,

Larry
No one cared about how many runs Mantle hypothetically created. No one was playing fantasy baseball in 1952. If it was Willie Mays or Eddie Mathews on the Yankees, hitting 500 Hrs and winning 12 pennants and 7 championships in 14 years, their card would be the million dollar card and Mantle would be much less.

It is the first major set for a company making baseball cards for 65+ years aligning with a 2nd year card of the star of the greatest dynasty in baseball history.
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  #18  
Old 10-13-2017, 03:13 PM
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jason.1969 jason.1969 is offline
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The key requirement we may never see again was that cards were assumed to have no actual value at the time, hence were not generally retained or preserved. Nowadays, just about everything is an instant collectible, hence sought after, preserved, hoarded, etc.

The question I have is how much Mantle's value is buttressed by a fan base that actually saw him in his prime and idolized him. These fans would be at least 65-70 by now, hence unlikely to influence the card market 50 years from now. By then, Mantle goes from being the God of their youths to "just" a Top 15 or so player. I'm sure the iconic past of the card will hold some influence but I don't think the influence will be total or permanent.

Jason

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  #19  
Old 10-19-2017, 04:13 PM
ls7plus ls7plus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rats60 View Post
No one cared about how many runs Mantle hypothetically created. No one was playing fantasy baseball in 1952. If it was Willie Mays or Eddie Mathews on the Yankees, hitting 500 Hrs and winning 12 pennants and 7 championships in 14 years, their card would be the million dollar card and Mantle would be much less.

It is the first major set for a company making baseball cards for 65+ years aligning with a 2nd year card of the star of the greatest dynasty in baseball history.
They care about analytics now, and have a great deal since Bill James began to publish his Baseball Abstract in the '80's. Come on in out of the 1950's--in addition to Mantle's superiority over Mays and Aaron during the time they were all active (which goes to quality, rather than quantity established through longevity), it certainly didn't hurt that Mantle's teams won the pennant in 12 of the first 14 years of his career, or that he averaged a home run every 12-point something times at bat FOR TEN, YES TEN, YEARS! And for educational purposes, Mantle's runs created are certainly not "hypothetical." James' arrived at a formula for predicting the number of runs a team would score by an extremely thorough mathematical consideration of both positive and negative events in relation to run scoring which was proven to be incredibly accurate. He then concluded that there was no reason the same formula could not be applied to individual players. wRC+ performs a similar function, while OBPS comes close to doing the same thing in a somewhat shorthand manner.

For your information, Eddie Mathews is ranked as the second greatest third baseman of all time (third by Bill James, behind Schimidt (#1) and Brett (#2)) and may well have become number one but for a significant shoulder injury he suffered in 1962. He had 370 HR's before he was 30, prior to that injury.

Study the game's history (reading about it should be enjoyable and not work), which becomes even richer as SABER and analytics advance with time, and learn something! You might even want to watch a little "MLB Now" on your cable network, a show which devotes quite a bit of time to baseball analytics. The latter will have an even greater, not lesser, impact over time.

Regards,

Larry

Last edited by ls7plus; 10-19-2017 at 05:09 PM.
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  #20  
Old 10-19-2017, 04:33 PM
ls7plus ls7plus is offline
Larry
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jason.1969 View Post
The key requirement we may never see again was that cards were assumed to have no actual value at the time, hence were not generally retained or preserved. Nowadays, just about everything is an instant collectible, hence sought after, preserved, hoarded, etc.

The question I have is how much Mantle's value is buttressed by a fan base that actually saw him in his prime and idolized him. These fans would be at least 65-70 by now, hence unlikely to influence the card market 50 years from now. By then, Mantle goes from being the God of their youths to "just" a Top 15 or so player. I'm sure the iconic past of the card will hold some influence but I don't think the influence will be total or permanent.

Jason

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
Bill James ranked Mantle as the 5th greatest player to play major league baseball, with thorough consideration of all the factors that entailed, in his last historical baseball abstract, which is a rating he beyond any reasonable dispute earned in the course of his career. Yes, others posted higher total numbers, but James and I are both talking primarily about quality of play over a substantial period of time, rather than quantity (does anyone really consider Craig Biggio on a par with numerous other HOF'er's simply because he got 3,000+ hits over a long career? Don't expect a run on Biggio cards anytime soon!).

I was asked by dealers I have known for many, many years at the National in Chicago what was going to happen to the value of Mantle cards once those who actually saw him play passed on. My answer was simple, and one I would classify as a basic truism: exactly the same thing as happened over time to Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Wagner and other such cards. The fact that there are more of the Mantles may well make them more cyclical in their appreciation, but I don't think you will go wrong over the long term in tucking away some of his very toughest in the highest grade you can find or afford now.

Happy collecting,

Larry

Last edited by ls7plus; 10-19-2017 at 05:05 PM.
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