ebay bidding philosophy and doubts

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Posted By: scott

its been 2 years since i sold all my cards and now,getting back into the hobby,i thought i'd bid on some items on ebay.in the past ,the few times i bid ,i've been blown away by other bidders ..thus resorting to buying my cards from board members and dealers.

i'm drawn to collecting a type set of more difficult caramels along with a few other samples from sets i like(brunners bread,ramly's etc.).this past weekend i bid on 2 cards from the e97 and e102-2 sets.neither were hof's but were graded in vg-ex and vg.i had a good idea what they would go for and bid to my limit and lost.

i felt an edge of discomfort about bidding so high.i did ebay searches on prices realized etc.but the going was higher.i love type cards such as these but paying a couple hundred $$$ for non hof's was new to me.i'm not nieve about rarity of cards...such as these, especially on decent condition e-cards so iwasn't that surprised.more common issues ans even rare issues of a hof seem much easier to place a price whether by research or your own budget.

my question finally is how do many of you deal with bidding on cards that there just isn't alot of sales history to go on?do you ever get nervous buying a more difficult "common" from a tough set thinking you may be over paying?

i'm not really asking for advice which would be bidding in my comfort zone, which i hit,but your own experiences with these thoughts.

thanks for helping me learn.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...you will either lose or pay more than you would if you sniped. Auctions are not a particularly rational market, and placing a bid early will encourage other bidders to outbid you -- or bid into your proxy bid -- until they beat you. The only people that are helped by early bids are the sellers. That is why, of course, the standard line from auction houses and sellers alike is, "Bid Early and Often."

In addition, with the advent and proliferation of VintageCardPricer and such ebay tracking softwares, everyone knows what the last card went for and new entrants into the market for that card are likely to bid over that amount to win the card, if they need it. It is an upward spiral that, to some extent, explains the rising prices of vintage cards.

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Posted By: Mark T

Oh the times they are a changing....

Just when you thought the card market was stabilizing out comes the big money. I think the T206 cards are leveling off but the Caramels are really soaring. You said you have not sold in 2 years, i am sure the prices are different now so your perception of what a card should go for has changed. I do use the snipe service and have been very happy with it. I also think more modern collectors are moving over to vintage so with more collectors come higher prices.

just my opinion though...

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Posted By: Cobby33

Although sniping seems to work for a lot of people, there are other ways to get cards that you want with traditional bidding...

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Posted By: S Gross

In my experience as an ebay buyer -- one word ------> SNIPE

I snipe everything. One day I had a snipe in on one card for $1200, and the next for $12.

You set your price, snipe it, and forget about all the other factors (like those late night convection oven commercials: "Set it, and Forget it"). If you win, you win, if you lose, you lose.....

I also find sniping results help in your knowledge of market price determination. Say I see a card I value at 100, so I put in a snipe at 100. I win it at 95, and the other bid I beat were 85 and 90. So I not only won, but realize my 100 market estimate was pretty good. Even If I lost the card to someone at 105, I come away with the same market knowledge.

On the other hand, If I put in a snipe at 100, and win the card at 50, I'm happy in two ways: I won the card at a much lower price than I figured, AND I realize my estimate was off. Same thing if I put in a 100 snipe and the card sells for 200, I learn a better market value.

I'm not saying this is fool proof and you'll become a card financial counselor in an auction or two, but over time it has worked well for me.

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Posted By: Dylan

It sounds like your collecting exactly the same cards ive been going after. putting togther a type set of caramel/tobacco and a few other odds and ends has been my first priority. These more obscure issues obviously dont trade hands as much as some other sets and pricing can be difficult sometimes. But i track a lot of sets and write down previous auctions and have a pretty good ballpark figure of what im buying. Ofcourse ebay is unpredictable and no matter how much you track sales sometimes things sell for crazy prices for no particular reason.

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Posted By: Brian

Snipe or die

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Posted By: Cobby33

The biggest problem with sniping is when you are interested in several lots that end at the same time. If you are a die-hard sniper, you'll have to choose ONE lot and let the chips fall where they may (assuming you don't have unlimited funds).

If you don't snipe, you'll have a better idea of which
lot(s) to go for, since presumably, you can't afford to put in high snipes on several different lots.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Sniping doesn't guarantee that you will get the highest bid, only that you will get the last bid. If someone else has placed a higher maximum bid, either through the normal bidding process or by using a sniping program themselves, you will lose the auction. Do you think your snipe won't allow anyone else time to react? Maybe not, but neither will you have time to react if they have already put in a maximum bid that is higher than your snipe amount.

The sane, reasonable thing to do is to bid the maximum amount you are willing to pay for an item, and then walk away. If it sells for more than that, then you shouldn't feel bad. If it sells for less, than you have won the item and again you can be happy.

In those unusual cases where there is an item that is rarely offered for sale, and no one really knows what it is worth, then it may be more difficult to decide in advance what your maximum bid should be. That is one of the reasons people auction certain things off rather than set a fixed take-it-or-leave-it price. But in an auction format like eBay's, with a fixed end time, you still have to come to grips with what your maximum bid is going to be. I think that is really the key to success in any auction.

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Posted By: Bob

Cobby- I tried that tactic last week on a bunch of E97 blank backs, wanting to pick up 5 or 6, and ended up with a computer crash that was almost disastrous. Luckily I had a snipe set on one, was able to pick up one of the few which hadn't already gone off and bought another from a winning bidder later at a mark-up. Sniping is definitely the way to go...
tbob

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Posted By: Cobby33

tbob-

i'm curious as to what the besy strategy to use when sniping in that situation.

let's say, for the sake of ease, that you only have $120 and there are 5 cards that you're watching. do you pick one and put a $120 bid on it and forget the rest? what if you lose it? do you gamble and put $120 on 2 of them? what if you you win both of them and you're out $240 now?

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Posted By: T206Collector

GavelSnipe.com is free and you can place a zillion snipes all at once. I certainly do not recommend manually sniping by hitting refresh on ebay as the clock winds down.

The following problems exist with setting your max early and walking away:

(a) You are inviting bids into your proxy bid. Say someone bids with 2 minutes left, hoping they'll be the highest bidder. But if you're higher, they'll see that immediately and bid again. If you waited to snipe, they would have no time to respond with a higher bid.

(b) You are encouraging people to follow an auction. Auctions with more bids get more attention -- and, rarely, people who know that you bid on things can follow your bidding habits to find cards they may like.

There is zero reason not to snipe, and at least two good reasons to snipe.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

T206Collector -- well I suppose you are right that given that you know what your maximum bid really is (which is what I am advocating), it is best to show your hand at the last possible microsecond, given the technology at hand. It smacks of poor ethics, but who cares about that sort of thing any more. I guess what I am trying to say is that, on eBay, or in any other auction format, the key to success is being able to figure out what your maximum bid should be, not trying to outsmart other bidders by placing bids in a certain way or at a certain time. But who cares -- screw anyone you can to get what you want should be the goal, I guess.

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Posted By: Brian

What is unethical about bidding in the last 6 seconds?

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Posted By: leon

Good question.....

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Ah, even the moderator can't see a glimmer of my point of view. What is wrong with bidding in the last 6 seconds? Nothing, it is completely allowed by the rules. You are SO BRILLIANT to figure that out. My question is, what is your intention in doing so? I can see you sitting there at your computer, with the gleam in your eye, typing that higher bid with gleeful intensity, thinking the other guy won't have a chance to respond. Good for you! I hope you win! You deserve it!

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Posted By: Brian

Why so angry Eric?

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Sorry Brian, I didn't mean to be inflammatory. Just seems like some people care more about getting an edge on the deal than anything else. If there's nobody else out there who shares my concern, I'll just fade into the woodwork...Regards, Eric

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Posted By: Ken W.

I agree with your ethics, Eric. I have always felt that the strict end time on ebay was the one thing that made its auctions uncharacteristic of real "live" auctions - "Going once, going twice..." I especially felt this way when I used to have a dial-up modem! I have never understood why ebay could not (or would not) incorporate a "15 minute rule" like the auction houses do. Of course, it should probably be much shorter - maybe one minute - during which time there would be ample opportunity for someone to consider increasing their bid. Seems to me like this would benefit sellers.

P.S. I will admit to manually sniping at times, for I do understand the logic. But that doesn't mean its not kind of crappy!

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Posted By: jeffdrum

Let me preface this by saying I am in no way trying to be inflammatory and I respect both opinions. Isn't the idea of bidding on something to win it and win it for the least amount of money you have to pay and that the seller is willing to accept? If that is the case and sniping is permitted by the rules, where is the breach of ethics?

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Posted By: Dave S

I think this topic is similar to the "raw" vs. "slabbed" card...where everyone has their own opinions and are not going to sway far from it, even though they see the points of the other view. I definitely see Eric's point and that is not to say it's right or wrong. Simply put, what I think his point is, is that if I'm willing to pay $500 for a T206, what makes the difference (as far as my wallet) whether I place that bid on Day 1 or at the last second?? If that's my limit, and someone else has a higher limit, so beit...

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Posted By: Zinn

but for me that only works if the bidding is over $200.00 when my identity is hidden. I'm one of those who do not like to have others know what I'm bidding on. So while the bidding level is less than $200.00 I won't even bid. If the item is going to go for less than $200.00 I'll use a snipe service. Personally I don't see anything unethical with the practice.

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Posted By: Scott Raasch

I started sniping when I saw a lot of bidding by one person on an auction in $1-2 increments (or minimum increment) until they had the high bid. These were what I called "uneducated" bidders. They do not know their limit - they just want to buy the item and will often overpay. Sometimes they just get caught up in the emotion of "winning". Sometimes they would realize after the end of the auction that they went too high and would not pay. So I now snipe just to protect myself from the chance of one of these bidders finding the auction of an item I want. Do I buy cards at less than they "should" go for. Yes, sometimes. And I do feel bad for the seller in those cases. Heck, a couple times I actually paid more than my winning bid because I felt bad! But when I see auctions with 17 bids by one person, in minimum increments, and they end up winning at a price that is 2-3X an identical Buy-It-Now item, then I know that I must snipe to have the best chance to actually win an item at a reasonable price.

I actually sold a 60's Sports Illustrated for $37 once, when there were 3 identical issues for a $3.95 Buy-It-Now! Two bidders traded bids in minimum increments over a 3 days period.

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Posted By: Brian

<<Let me preface this by saying I am in no way trying to be inflammatory and I respect both opinions. Isn't the idea of bidding on something to win it and win it for the least amount of money you have to pay and that the seller is willing to accept? If that is the case and sniping is permitted by the rules, where is the breach of ethics?>>



I agree with this. I am not running over grandmothers or deceiving poor children -- just bidding on auctions. I don't have the ability to set ebay's rules. I bid within the rules, set my own limits, and hide my bid until the last moment. Of the last 100 snipes I have set, only 20 or so have registered. I have won only 2 or 3 of those. Do I feel wronged by the winning bidders or the system? Nope.

Its all good Eric. I can respect your perspective. But its not like those of us that snipe are Dr Evil....

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Posted By: Cobby33

It's kind of like bidding on 'roids. It's not illegal, but you definitely get the edge at any cost.

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Posted By: Vincent

First, let me say that I also manually snipe. And I'd guess my success rate is 50% or so. I'm not going to get goofy bidding on an item. If it's something I want badly, or need for my personal collection, then I'll bid agressively. Otherwise . . .

I've always been amazed at the old, but true auction method used by autograph dealer/collector Jack Smalling, with regards to his mail-bid auctions. Bidders submit their high bid before the end date, and the highest bidder wins the lot, at 4% over the second highest bid. No open limit bids are accepted, and no one knows what the highest bids are until after the auction ends. And every so often, two bidders try to get around the open limit bid by submitting unrealistically high bids, and one of them gets burned. It may be unethical of me to silently cheer when that occurs, but for a brief moment, it helps lessen the sting of having been overbid on an item desired.

Seems to me that this method wouldn't be too hard to implement. But I don't know if it would be as financially rewarding to sellers.

Just my two cents worth.

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Posted By: leon

I will politely, categorically, disagree with anyone that thinks it's wrong or unethical to snipe bid. It's the way it happens and most folks do it. I see absolutely no problem with it. When I did it manually (almost never now that I use a service) I admit I did get a little rush from it....Now I set the snipes for my max I will pay and go play with my 10yr old daughter or take the dog out or something... If you don't want to do snipes that's fine ....If you don't like that it's done that's ok too. I don't like a lot of things....This is not one of them. When I get out sniped by a friend I laugh...when I out snipe a friend I laugh too...It's baseball cards......best regards

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Posted By: Rob

I manually snipe in the last 10 seconds when I REALLY want a card and if I can be around when the auction ends. Otherwise, I throw in the max I'm willing to spend and walk away. If i win, great.

I don't totally see the point that its unethical to snipe. You should put in your max bid, period. If someone has a higher max than you, then it doesn't matter whether they bid at the last second or 5 days before it ends.

Ebay set the rules, we just play by them.

Rob

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Posted By: barrysloate

There are different auction formats, and ebay is the only one I can think of that ends abruptly at a given moment (similar to the Sopranos final episode). As such, it demands a different strategy than a catalog or live auction.

And for many that strategy is to get in a bid in the last 5-10 seconds. It's a good one and it is within the rules. I don't see how it's a breach of ethics. The goal is to win the lot, and while I agree you still have to be the high bidder to do so, many don't like to tip their hand until the end.

Seems fair and square to me.

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Posted By: JK

"if I'm willing to pay $500 for a T206, what makes the difference (as far as my wallet) whether I place that bid on Day 1 or at the last second?? If that's my limit, and someone else has a higher limit, so beit..."

The difference is that if you place your bid on day one, you might get run up to your limit by other bidders or even shill bidders trying to test your limits. If you snipe and set your max, its much more difficult to be shilled and you are much more likely to win the card at an amount lower than your max.

Ebay's rules allow sniping. Its not as though some illegal technology is being used. Every bidder has access to the same sniping services - many of which are free - so there is no advantage being unfairly gained by those who use snipe services. I mean no disrespect, but to say someone is unethical for using a sniping service is insulting to those who do so and shows an utter lack of thought on the topic. If someone wants to pay the highest possible price their budget will allow for a card, so be it -I'd rather pay less than my max if at all possible.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Good points all. I guess I was a bit sanctimonious with my ethical tirade on this eBay 'sniping' thing, earlier. It might be a little sneaky in concept, but it certainly isn't the worst thing that takes place in baseball card trading, and it is indeed within the rules. And as several folks have indicated, a last-second bidding strategy may or may not be advantageous for the sniper, depending on the situation. I still won't do it myself, because it just doesn't feel right, but like Leon maybe I can just laugh when somebody outbids me that way. After all, it does come down to who wants to pay the most for an item, regardless of when they submit their top bid.

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Posted By: barrysloate

When I first heard about ebay many years ago, I too was baffled by the format that allowed people to bid in the last few seconds before it automatically ended. As time passed I realized it's not a bad one as there is finality. With a catalog auction, you can place ten bids at three in the morning, go to bed, and find out the next day you still won nothing. Every system has pros and cons.

I made a point in an earlier thread that the reason there are so many different systems, and so much tinkering going on with each of them, is that the perfect one still hasn't been found.

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Posted By: Cobby33

I, too, don't see anything unethical or sneaky, per se, about snipe bidding. Personally, I just think it kind of takes the fun/competition out of the bidding process.

I would only consider using it if I knew I was going to be away at the close of the auction (which is most of the time) and I didn't want my max. bid to be run up. But still, I'm not sure how much running up actually takes place if you put in a max bid a couple of hours before auction's end, that a snipe would prevent.

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Posted By: Mike Snyder

I agree that sniping is the best way to go.

When a bid is set early, it allows other bidders to chip and chop away at your bid price. Sometimes that is what stirs the bidding fury....a bidder's inquisitive mind.

If you let the auction sit as silently as you can, a more true final price can be acheived by the lot of snipers at the end. I find that this is the fairest and (if this is what you like) exciting finishes.

IMO, the bid price should:
reflect your interest in the card's importance in your collection.
reflect the quality of the card (centering, grade, etc)
NOT go beyond a certain point.

I have found that there are many T206s that have just gotten out of control. Even though Ebay history may show prior auctions of bids with 3x the book value, I cannot in all concience buy into those inflated values.

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Posted By: Dave F

I use a sniping service these days. When I didn't it would get frustating putting a bid in early because I wouldn't be around the computer only to log on later and see I lost the auction a $1.00, or $2.50 or whatever it ended up being for the next bid increment.

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Posted By: Rob

Dave, if you snipe you could still lose by that $1 or $2.50 min bid increment, right?

but, i know the point ya'll are trying to make ... if you bid early then its easier for someone to outbid you.

like most of ya'll, i try to snipe when i can, but i only do it manually. i don't yet trust a 3rd party service w/my ebay pw.

Rob