September pickups

[the 'stache]

Well, I really have never posted any of the modern baseball cards as I've gotten them, so I need to start doing that, especially since they've made up the majority of my collection.

No Earth shattering acquisitions thus far to start off the month. I couple Jeremy Jeffress Bowman Chrome autos, as he has been sent back to the Brewers team that drafted him. And a Tucker Neuhaus Bowman Chrome base auto. The two that could turn out to be stars are Nick Williams, a sweet hitting prospect in the Rangers system, and James Paxton, up now with the Mariners and really taking the American League by storm.

[Mountaineer1999]

Hey Bill. I've seen some of your posts about collecting new player cards for profit. We have a local kid that made the show recently and wondered about what cards of him would be the most collectible. If you have any thoughts on Daniel Norris cards I would appreciate them.

[swarmee]

There is a new book out by Hwang that they post snippets of from time to time on Sports Collectors Daily
http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com...s-value-cycle/

That could help your friend determine how to actually monetize some of the newer stuff. I'm going to go the more old fashioned route and find some raw cards of "key rookie cards" and submit for hopefully good grades. Basic gist is look for the Bowman Chrome Rookie refractors paralleled to 50. Some of them get so out-of-whack (IMO) that it's better to wait a year to buy them on the prospects you think have a shot at becoming the next big thing. Like right now, I'd be considering Raimel Tapia. Rockies hitting prospect that BaseballProspectus has been drooling over for two years, but still not a mainstream prospect.

[the 'stache]

Hi Donnie,

Are you referring to Daniel Norris of the Blue Jays? Yup, I'm a fan. Unfortunately, when I started prospecting, I didn't buy more than one of a card, because I wasn't planning on doing any selling. I was doing this for my own collection because it was fun to watch a player work their way through the minors, hoping they get to the show, and have a great career. I've missed on some players (that's unavoidable), but I've hit a lot more than I've missed. Norris was one of the guys that I liked when he first appeared on the radar. Plus, his cards were cheap at first.

If you're looking to buy cards to sell later for profit, I like the Bowman Chrome prospect autos. They're typically the first card to come out for any given player once they've been drafted by a Major League team, or even before they've been drafted. Topps has the exclusive rights to use Major League logos, so instead of generic uniforms, you can actually see the player in their eventual uniform. The Bowman Chrome prospect autos are on card, too. No stickers unless you're getting an Olympic card (I think Gerrit Cole has one of those. Others I know that have them are Bubba Starling, Francisco Lindor, Albert Almora, etc. I think more recent USA Olympic prospect autos are now on card). The Bowman Chrome cards can really go up in value. I bought my 2009 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout for $95. Graded BGS 9.5, it's been going around $1,200. Ungraded with great eye appeal can go for $800 or 900. I got a 2006 Bowman Chrome Clayton Kershaw for about $100. It's going for 4 or 5 times that right now. If he wins this Cy Young, which I think is a foregone conclusion, you're starting to enter Sandy Koufax heights. A card that looks nearly identical to mine sold for $500 on an auction yesterday. A Beckett graded one (9.5/10) sold for $600. I could make $1,400 if I sold the Trout and Kershaw. That would be a nice return for slightly below $200.

So, back to the Norris. You're looking at the 2012 Bowman Chrome. That happens to not only be the first year he signed a Bowman Chrome auto, but the first year Bowman Chrome released any card of his. That s not always the case. Taijuan Walker, for example, a top of the rotation stud in Seattle's system, had his first Bowman Chrome prospect auto in 2013. But his first Bowman Chrome card was in 2010. Both should have value if he turns out to be the pitcher I think he'll be.

So, here's my 2012 Bowman Chrome Daniel Norris refractor auto



I am not sure how many base (unserialized) Chrome autos there are. Back in 2004, Bowman published how many there were, which was 1,695. I expect the base number to be somewhat close to that now. There are only 500 refractor autos. What is a refractor? It has a reflective quality that a base card does not have. Then you start getting into colored refractors. Reflective cards that are colored blue, gold, orange, red. Those are smaller runs, typically /150 for blue, /50 for gold, /25 for orange, /10 for purple, /5 for red, and then there's a superfractor. The superfractor is numbered 1/1, and it is super expensive.

You might look to buy a few of the base autos for these cards. Remember that he has reached the Majors now, so there won't be another spike to his cards before being called up. However, I feel his cards are undervalued. There should be some real upside to his cards. Obviously Kershaw is a really amazing pitcher, and a best case scenario, but there's no reason why Norris couldn't get to $100 or more if he starts out strong. Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey' Bowman Chrome prospect autos, for example, were both a good bit over $100 before they had to have shoulder surgery. So, if you bought a card for $15, and sold it for $100, that's a nice profit, isn't it? You're making nearly six times what you paid for the card. Now, you may sell it before it gets that high. That's part of the game. Do you hold it, thinking it might go higher? Or do you think that's a more than acceptable profit margin, and put it up for sale.

I think the first and last rule of thumb is this. You make a profit off of your buy. If he makes the rotation next year, and pitches very well, his card should go for over $50. His refractor would go for more. If I were selling for profit, I might sell the refractor. Even if it only sold for $60, I've just made a $45 profit off of a $15 purchase. I'll be happy all day with a 300% profit.

You might start off with a few players you think will play well in the Majors. But and hold a few cards, and sell them when you see them selling at your desired profit.

I hope that helps you get some ideas! Let me know if you have any more questions. Feel free to shoot me a message.

Good luck!

Bill

Originally Posted by Mountaineer1999

Hey Bill. I've seen some of your posts about collecting new player cards for profit. We have a local kid that made the show recently and wondered about what cards of him would be the most collectible. If you have any thoughts on Daniel Norris cards I would appreciate them.

[Mountaineer1999]

Thanks Bill, some great info here. I've looked on eBay and there are quite a few bowman refractors. The one I am looking for and the one you have is x/500 correct?

[the 'stache]

Donnie, it is a bit confusing at first when you start prospecting Bowman Chromes. And there are a few reasons for that. Not everything I explain here is directly related to the particular card you are looking for, but it is knowledge that will help you in the long run.

Bowman Chrome cards are released every year in basically three parts. Bowman Baseball, which comes out at the very end of April, are regular baseball cards. They are the standard size and thickness of the cards you might have grown up on if you were my age. Think of the early 80s Topps, or 70s...all the way back to 1957, when Topps first adopted the now standard 2.5" x 3.5" card. I think each Bowman Baseball pack contains like 8 cards. Then, the pack also contains two Bowman Chrome baseball cards. When you first hold one of these beauties in your hand (if you have no already), you will immediately notice the difference. These are thicker cards with not only a high gloss, but a completely different coating on the front of the card. Super high tech stuff. The Bowman Chromes released within the Bowman baseball packs number BCP1 to BCP110, or "Bowman Chrome Prospects #1-110".

On September 24th, or thereabouts, the second part of the overall set is released as Bowman Chrome packs. Here, every single card in the packs are Bowman Chrome. There are 4 cards per pack. This part of the set will include Chrome style cards for approximately 200-225 current Major League players. The 2013 set had 220, so those were numbered 1-220. Then, the second part of the overall Chrome set is included, and those number BCP111-220. These are again Bowman Chrome Prospects.

Then, in mid November, the third and final part of the overall Bowman Chrome set is released as Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects. There are 7 cards per pack, and I believe there are 5 of the regular cards again, and 2 Chrome. Now, the cards are numbered 1-130. These cards are for players that are recent draft picks. There exists the standard cards (again, like the old 80s, 70s etc Topps cards. Just cardboard). Then, the cards are again done, only as Chrome cards. These are numbered BDPP1-BDPP130 (Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects). There are 45 other cards, both regular and Chrome, for players that have achieved rookie status (they have the Rookie Card "RC" logo on the front).

Now, within all 3 of these different releases, the majority of players, if not all, will also have those autographed cards. Each Bowman box, released in April, each Bowman Chrome box, released in September, and each Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects box, released in November, will have 1 autographed card per box. Which card is autographed is done at random. And, of course, the autographed cards will have unique numbers. For example, the 2013 Draft Pick & Prospect autographed cards had the standard BCA-## format. This stands for Bowman Chrome Autograph, followed by the initials for the player's name. The one for Bryce Harper, when it came out in 2011, was BCA-BH, for example.

So, if you're not confused quite yet, you want to keep in mind that each player can have multiple autographs within a few years.

Here's a link to an in-depth explanation of how the Bowman Chrome releases are done, and how the autographs are handled. I did this on Sports Card Forum. I used the example of Bryce Harper to show how his cards were released, and which autos he did. I think this will help you, too.

Demystifying the "rookie card" for new/returning hobbyists, using Bryce Harper

Now, when you are looking for your Daniel Norris cards, be mindful that he has autographed cards within the 2012 set, and un-autographed cards. For unautographed cards, he has both regular Bowman and Chrome releases. For autographs, he has the following prospect autos:

Base no serial #
refractor /500
blue refractor /150
gold refractor /50
orange refractor /25
purple /10
red /5
superfractor 1/1

For his non-autographed cards, he has Bowman Chrome (all numbered BCP110)

refractor /500
blue refractor 150
gold refractor /50
orange refractor /25
red refractor /5
superfractor 1/1

Notice, no purple refractors /10 were released.

For his non autographed Bowman cards, he has (all numbered BP110):

orange /250
green /450
blue /500
purple not numbered
red 1/1

These do not have the same reflective properties of the Chrome cards. These numbered cards are not called refractors. They are called parallels.

Additionally, there are (I believe) five different printing plates used to actually print the cards. These are of course 1/1s. They can be pretty darned valuable. Not everybody, however, collects these. I do not. But when plates that were used to print autographed cards are released, they are autographed by the athlete.

Now, I don't want to blow your head, because that's a lot of information. But there are different types of boxes, too.

You have retail boxes, which are sold at stores like Wal Mart, Target, etc. They will have a few unique cards that are not available in hobby boxes.

Hobby boxes are only sold at local card shops, or through authorized sellers online. They, too, have cards not available in the retail stores.

Bowman boxes sold at retail stores will have the Bowman regular cards (again, think of the cards from the 80s, 70s Topps, etc. Regular old cardboard). There will be players that have signed, and the autographs are on stickers, which are then put on the cards. Now, the autos aren't bad at all. Like Bryce Harper had a retail only card with his card and signature that you couldn't get through hobby boxes. The hobby boxes have Chrome on card autos. Bowman Chrome on card prospect autos are the Cadillacs of prospect autos. They will be the most valuable. Only the hobby boxes will contain the printing plates I referred to, as well. Only Hobby boxes can possibly contain the superfractor autos. Hobby cards have slightly better odds to get the parallel or refractor cards. I also think they have more cards. Like for Bowman Chrome, the retail boxes might have 4 cards, and Hobby boxes might have 5. It's been a while since I've bought either. But both have their little perks. But I definitely prefer the hobby boxes. There are also jumbo boxes, sold only at local card shops. They are more expensive, and have fewer packs. Where a hobby box might have 24 packs, a jumbo box will have 10 packs only. But where the hobby box has 1 autograph, the jumbo box will have 3 autos.

It might just help you to see the checklists themselves. I'm going to give you the three checklists for the 2013 cards, as they have already been released. Sports Card Radio does a great job every year of breaking down the individual releases, and provides pictures of the cards. This information comes from Bowman, er Topps.

Well, first, let me give you the checklist for 2012 Bowman, as this was the release with the Daniel Norris Chrome autographs:

2012 Bowman Baseball

Ok, now the 3 releases from 2013:



2013 Bowman Baseball

And...



2013 Bowman Chrome

And finally...



2013 Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects

Now, back to Mr. Norris. Let me show you a few other examples from my own collection to help clarify what is what.

From left to right, the 2012 Bowman Chrome Daniel Norris refractor auto #BCP110, the 2012 Bowman Chrome Daniel Norris non auto #BCP110, the 2012 Bowman Daniel Norris #BP110, and a 2012 Bowman Daniel Norris purple parallel. I'll show you the fronts and the backs.






These look much better in person. My scanner is quite good, but one of the things with newer cards, sometimes there is embossing, and that doesn't always translate well to a flat scanner. But I wanted you to get a general idea how the different cards look, and how the backs look. I learn visually myself, so this would be the best way for me to learn.

Now maybe you can start to see why at least some modern card collecting is fun. Bowman Chrome, and its sister set, Topps Chrome, are really fun to collect. It can be manic, because the Bowman Chrome sets seem to come out so fast. Every few months, there's a whole other set of players that have released autographed cards. Trying to keep up with them, deciding who is going to be the great players from each release, and which cards to collect. It keeps you busy. But the reward can be great. The cards are beautiful, especially when you've collected the parallels, or Chrome refractors. In this next post, I'm going to show you an example of one rainbow I put together. These will be Topps Chrome, which are more geared to veteran players, but will have cards for players who have reached rookie status. They have the same kind of profile as the Bowman Chromes, only they are released once a year. The only card from my Wily Peralta rainbow I am missing is the SuoerFractor, which I will never get, as there is only one. But the AtomicRefractor makes up for it. There are only ten made, and I have one. I am going to rescan these, and then you will see why I enjoy these so much. They are a wonderful compliment to the older releases, and precisely why I collect pre-war, vintage and modern.

[Shoebox]

Bill, is all your prospecting done by targeted buys of individual cards or are you opening product as well?

[the 'stache]

Donnie-

Here's my Wily Peralta 2012 Topps Chrome rainbow. This should give you a good idea of why I collect these things.

In order:

base auto
refractor auto 456/499
blue refractor auto 12/199
black refractor auto 96/100
sepia refractor auto 51/75
yellow refractor auto 44/50
red refractor auto 4/25
atomic refractor auto 9/10




Ugh, these pictures look terrible for some reason, almost like they were compressed after uploading. I'll reload them in a bit.

They're really incredible in person. Like I mentioned before, a scanner just doesn't do justice to these because of their reflective properties.

Originally Posted by Shoebox

Bill, is all your prospecting done by targeted buys of individual cards or are you opening product as well?

Hi Dustin. When I started out, I was opening boxes, and I was getting nowhere. I was really still learning about the product, so I think I cracked 5 boxes to start, and I didn't pull anybody of note. Nearly $400 spent. I got a lot of really great veteran players to keep, but since I was looking for autographs of top prospects, I didn't do well at all. Since then, I've bought the cards I wanted individually 100% of the time. If I buy a box to break, it's just for the fun of it. I'm going to go to my local card shop tomorrow in Grapevine, and buy a box, maybe two, unless I find a lot of individual vintage cards I really want. Otherwise I'm going there to look for 1975 Topps singles.

I have my own way of prospecting, and since I'm thinking about doing it again, only this time to sell some cards to augment the money I have to spend on pre-war and vintage, I will be testing some ideas I have. The two years I prospected heavily, 2011 and 2012, I did an Excel spreadsheet where I tracked both Baseball America and the MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo) top 100 prospects. Based on the ranking of a player within one or both lists, I assigned an overall averaged score. The first year, I think Bryce Harper was #1, Mike Trout #2 and Matt Moore #3. I tried to purchase as many of the top 100 players in Bowman Chrome autos. Not all the players had one. Some had not yet had one released. A few others did not have an agreement with Topps, electing instead to sign with Donruss/Panini. Then, I looked to buy something like their Donruss Elite autograph. I also bought other prospects that I felt would make the list next year, or cards for prospects I thought were highly undervalued. I tracked their progress through the minor leagues during the season. I watched them play their minor league games. I kept track of stories in Baseball America. I researched scouting reports for players, using Baseball Prospect Nation primarily, though the writer is now with another site. I have to check where he's gone.

I ended up with about 85% of the 2011 set in Bowman Chrome autos, and slightly lower for 2012. It becomes slightly easier when players repeat on the list. Somebody like Travis D'Arnaud of the Blue Jays, and later the Mets, climbed up the list over a three year span. Others will debut high, and be at the Major League level within a year or so. Jose Fernandez was like that. And the Fernandez I bought will be going to Beckett here in Dallas. It's as close to being a perfect 10 card as there is. It is flawless.



Prospecting can be very profitable, so long as you don't fall in love with your cards. I just bought another Daniel Norris base auto for $10 delivered. That is my absolute ceiling. I'll sell it if I can get $30. Now, $20 isn't a huge profit by any means, but I could always hold it a bit longer and try for a higher profit margin. That's where the game is played. Go for more, or take a great return, and get out. He could have a great 2014, and make a run at the AL Rookie of the Year. Or, he could hurt his arm, and have to get Tommy John. With pitchers, especially, you have to be careful. This is where I spend a lot of time reading scouting reports. How clean is a pitcher's delivery. How repeatable? How much unnecessary torque does their motion put on their arm? Some pitchers have very fluid deliveries where their throwing motion is natural, and they are low risk. Some pitchers will have inconsistent deliveries. They may have great stuff, but if they are putting undue stress on their arm, then I think twice about investing. But no matter how careful I am, there are pitchers that just get hurt. Off the top of my head, I've bought Matt Harvey, Kyle Gibson, Dylan Bundy, Jarrod Parker, Casey Kelley, Jose Fernandez and Jameson Taillon that have had Tommy John. Fernandez and Bundy were the only ones not in the MLB.com top 50. There are more, but those just come to mind. And these all were top 25, top 50 prospects in baseball, and all have gone under the knife. That's why I'm shying away from pitchers.

I hope that helps some, guys. Feel free to ask me any other questions you might have. I'm happy to help!

[zachtruitt]

Great posts Bill! I will be getting my yearly batch of Bowman Chrome the week after next but I hope the huge (75 confirmed auto subjects) doesn't dilute this year's product. Let me know if you pick up anything nice. Thanks!

[Mountaineer1999]

Good stuff Bill! This will serve as a great resource and reference point for me moving forward. I'll post my Norris card here once I do a little eBay research to see some fair prices. Thanks again for all your help.

[the 'stache]

Thanks, guys. In the next week or so, I'm going to sit down and rescan all my prospect autos. I have about 1/3 of them in one of my photo galleries here on the site. I have a lot more to do yet, and I'm going to get cleaner scans. It might help you guys see what I've been doing.

I got that Norris refractor auto for $15 delivered a couple years ago. I bet before long, that card will be going for $60. That's where the money is. If you can afford to buy some of these really cheap, and hold them, you'll make a great return if you can avoid the temptation to sell them once you get any kind of a profit. My problem is that I always end up liking the cards I get. So, I've started buying extras just to sell. But I keep one for myself.

One player I think has a lot of upside, and is already in the Majors, is Devin Mesoraco. He was a top 25 prospect as recently as 2012. Then he got to the Majors, and had some flashes, but never put it together. This year, he finally did, and he's been excellent. He's got a .914 OPS. He's hitting .282 with 24 doubles, 23 home runs and 74 RBI in just 105 games. I figure he'd have had at least 35 homers if he'd been able to play the entire season. I think he will next year. This man can flat out hit, and even when he misses on balls, they still fly into the stands. Most people that watch baseball don't know just how much power Mesoraco has. I think his pure power is comparable to that of Giancarlo Stanton's. He doesn't hit it quite as far-yet, but I think he can get close. The man is that strong.

[the 'stache]

My base Norris Chrome auto came in. To compare. Base on the left, refractor on the right.