Card prices skyrocketing

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by 68Hawk

If you want to know where I think the real bubble exists, and it won't be a popular call on here....

It lies in the large sets like T206/T205 where indifferently talented players cards are bestowed with astronomical worth because of relative anomalies in printing number or flaws or differentiation like 'backs'.
When the kind of collector on here who idolizes these history rich issues become a distant minority, then it is hugely unlikely that tomorrows collectors - or most of todays for that matter - who don't invest their free time on anything they don't get immediate return from, will expend the interest and time to delve deeply into hobby lore and become heavily invested in broadscale vintage sportscards.
Of course not to say NONE will do so, but if that number is ever dwindling in comparison to modern collectors, then so will the eventual pocket wealth be diminished for obscure player collecting.

I know, setting the bush on fire right here to say it, but I'd hate to be owning an $8k T206 Broadleaf of a non HOF player in high grade going forward because of scarcity, with the assumption that the interest in such will be there in 15-20 years.

Did you see the T206 prices realized in all the David Hall (Heritage) auctions? Prices keep going up, and setting records. A common BL460 actually sold for $18k the other night...not $8k anymore. The big sets (T206, Cracker Jack, Goudey, 52 Topps) will always be in demand. It’s been that way for decades, and no signs of slowing down. The great thing with this hobby is the immense variety of “flavors”, something for everyone.

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Did you see the T206 prices realized in all the David Hall (Heritage) auctions? Prices keep going up, and setting records. A common BL460 actually sold for $18k the other night...not $8k anymore. The big sets (T206, Cracker Jack, Goudey, 52 Topps) will always be in demand. It’s been that way for decades, and no signs of slowing down. The great thing with this hobby is the immense variety of “flavors”, something for everyone.

Agree with both your points, however how many of the 'everyone' that wants T206 commons/Cracker Jack commons/Goudey commons/52' Commons will remain in the hobby going forward is the point I was making.
The people supporting much of the vintage hobby and especially the deep pocketed ones have been doing so since the early 2000's and before.
They knew what they liked before it cost a bunch, were hunting rarity then and ever since, and still have the where with all and interest to 'complete' their searching desires.

I don't believe many of those collectors are going to be replaced in 20 years time. While this is the stuff of which we've all been enamored for the last 60 years, its relevance to those born since the 1980's is far less than what you might hope.

I never said all, I was careful to do so. Younger collectors find this site all the time and begin their journeys just as many of us have done over the decades.
But if they are competing against fewer collectors as those of us in our 50's and older die off, prices for esoteric no-name player stuff won't be there.
IMO.

It's a long course call, am totally happy for you to believe otherwise.
It's when talk of bubbles, and growth, and where that growth has it's belly, that I think sky high numbers for non HOF players are most risky for massive correction.

[MVSNYC]

Gotcha. Fair enough. So, in your scenario, down the line, you're saying HOF/high-profile vintage players, will still be in demand (within T206, CJ, Goudey, 52 Topps, etc), but commons not so much?

[Hankphenom]

As a significant economic enterprise, sports card and memorabilia buying and selling is a young endeavor, roughly 40 years old. In that time, prices may have briefly stalled a time or two, but in general have risen steadily throughout. I don't think two generations of this experience is enough to claim some kind of permanent situation, though, and as others have pointed out, in particular there are compelling macroeconomic reasons to explain the recent surge, including simple momentum. Much of what we collect will have continuing appeal, along with all kinds of other antiques and collectibles, but a mere generation or two pushing prices higher and higher over a few decades doesn't give me the confidence that at some point that momentum won't slow, stop, or even reverse. Everything always seems to be the way it has always been, until it isn't anymore.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

As a significant economic enterprise, sports card and memorabilia buying and selling is a young endeavor, roughly 40 years old. In that time, prices may have briefly stalled a time or two, but in general have risen steadily throughout. I don't think two generations of this experience is enough to claim some kind of permanent situation, though, and as others have pointed out, in particular there are compelling macroeconomic reasons to explain the recent surge, including simple momentum. Much of what we collect will have continuing appeal, along with all kinds of other antiques and collectibles, but a mere generation or two pushing prices higher and higher over a few decades doesn't give me the confidence that at some point that momentum won't slow, stop, or even reverse. Everything always seems to be the way it has always been, until it isn't anymore.

Great post

[68Hawk]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Gotcha. Fair enough. So, in your scenario, down the line, you're saying HOF/high-profile vintage players, will still be in demand (within T206, CJ, Goudey, 52 Topps, etc), but commons not so much?

Yup.

[rjackson44]

Ive been buying bread issues and t210s orange borders ,just saying

[Directly]

A trend to watch for the next generations maybe the Pokémon Phenomena. The young and older collectors and traders alike are going crazy over these cards. Brand new Charizard chase cards are selling for hundreds of dollars plus. (Charizard doesn't have a bad year or ACL's) Many of these folks are now buying new retail sports card boxes to flip or use to trade for Pokémon cards, boxes, and visa versa, thus fueling the prices for both. Point being this is bringing many Pokémon collectors into the sports cards market! ( For years to come this will help support sport card prices across the board?)

[WA_HOF_rookie]

I got back into collecting in March 2020. Not because I thought there was a great investment opportunity, but because I all of a sudden decided I needed Mattingly rookies I couldn't afford as a kid. Trapped at home I took comfort in the nostalgia of cards.

After securing every card I had when I was a kid (primarily rookies from Dale Murphy - Roger Clemens), I turned to vintage. I went in heavy and overpaid most likely (at least in Aug/Sep), but am glad I did. I was able to get a handful of really special cards (Gehrig, DiMaggio, Robinson), but watched the Cobbs of the world gradually pick up enough speed that now there's no chance. I always say I'm going to buy something and sell it to buy something else, but can't stand the thought of selling.

I troll the BST threads/auction houses, but for now I'm back to building a Mattingly Master set. It's the fun of the chase with a budget that my wife won't leave me over.

For the bubble to pop, people like me need to stop buying so many cards. That isn't going to happen (for me at least).

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by Directly

A trend to watch for the next generations maybe the Pokémon Phenomena. The young and older collectors and traders alike are going crazy over these cards. Brand new Charizard chase cards are selling for hundreds of dollars plus. (Charizard doesn't have a bad year or ACL's) Many of these folks are now buying new retail sports card boxes to flip or use to trade for Pokémon cards, boxes, and visa versa, thus fueling the prices for both. Point being this is bringing many Pokémon collectors into the sports cards market! ( For years to come this will help support sport card prices across the board?)

i literally went blind reading this paragraph