Aaron Judge

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Yes, it is enormously difficult.

But you really think a few good "years" doesn't mean anything?

To whom— certainly not the players. Real baseball players take it game to game, at bat to at bat, pitch to pitch. They don't live their lives thinking, "Gee, I have to make the HOF." So the players certainly wouldn't agree with that.

The fans? I think fans of a team or player don't live in a "HOF or bust" space either. Fans will love lots of non HOF worthy players.

So how does a few good months or years mean nothing? The game is enormously hard. If anything, in such an environment having a great season is something a player or fan would love and value.

The only realm where that statement could apply is the realm of selling a baseball card for money.

Yes, of course, but that's the context we are discussing, namely the values we are seeing on some of the modern cards. Or at least that was the context in which I made the statement.

[MattyC]

Gotcha, Peter, makes sense in that context. Wasn't sure since a prior post was referencing price-performances of guys who had relatively brief flashes of greatness.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I think it's all related. What I see, from a limited vantage point anyhow, is that hype tends to drive a player's values sky high based on relatively brief periods of success, as though the market is already pricing in that the guy is going to be an all time great. How else can we explain prices way in excess of 1K (and I have no idea how high it goes) for a guy such a Judge who has had two months of success?

Trout, I get, he has five outstanding years in, and it's a relatively strong assumption that he will continue (but see recent injury). Relatively strong, because you have guys who fall way off even after 10 years. Griffey is an example of that, his second half was nowhere near his first. But two months -- in this context -- is way too soon IMO to be paying thousands for his cards. Unless money is no object.

Take a look back at what some Strasburg cards were selling for during his rookie year, when people already had him in the HOF.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think it's all related. What I see, from a limited vantage point anyhow, is that hype tends to drive a player's values sky high based on relatively brief periods of success, as though the market is already pricing in that the guy is going to be an all time great. How else can we explain prices way in excess of 1K (and I have no idea how high it goes) for a guy such a Judge who has had two months of success?

Trout, I get, he has five outstanding years in, and it's a relatively strong assumption that he will continue (but see recent injury). Relatively strong, because you have guys who fall way off even after 10 years. Griffey is an example of that, his second half was nowhere near his first. But two months -- in this context -- is way too soon IMO to be paying thousands for his cards. Unless money is no object.

Take a look back at what some Strasburg cards were selling for during his rookie year.

I completely agree with all of that. Future greatness is totally priced in by the modern collectors, and it kind of forces a fan who wants to collect a current player to choose when to hop on the train, so to speak, and buy.

As a huge pure fan of some modern guys, I'm forced to think, "OK, I want to collect this guy, so do I pony up now and hope he doesn't continue to soar? Or do I wait?"

For me, my love of a player or card will always trump any remote sense of fiscal responsibility, and so I'll splurge when the itch to collect hits. I've got my zone of comfort in terms of how high I can go for a Judge or Sanchez card and not care a lick if it tanks; for others that price tag can be a 10k superfractor or the like.

What I've found with collecting present guys is there's a thrill unique to it, an aspect that's nice to feel— in terms of the unknown; we're on the fan's journey with a player in the active present; we don't know how his career will turn out; so we root. And rooting is a blast. That's not to say it's better than what we get with our much older cards, it's just different and cool in its own way. I think too many times on here collecting is treated as some zero sum game, where it's this card or collecting ethos VERSUS that one. Doesn't have to be that way. Especially among people who all ostensibly love the same sport and the collecting of cards.

A modern collector of his favorite young player may be buying a fairly expensive ticket on a fun ride that will end— like any rollercoaster or hand of blackjack, LOL— or he may wind up with some cards he loves that also sustain or grow their value. Cool either way.

[orly57]

I didn't say TROUT collectors will rue the day, I said guys who chase prospects THINKING THEY WILL ALL BECOME TROUT will rue the day. Trout is a beast. But the more cards and autos they release of him, the more they will become devalued.

You don't like my comparison to Maas because of their differing approach at the plate. Way to miss the point. Buy whatever you want. I honestly don't care. If you can't take advice with a grain of salt, and feel you need to go into attack mode, then you aren't worth my time or advice. I will grab my cane and head back to the pre-war section where I belong.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by orly57

If you can't take advice with a grain of salt

I can certainly take someone's words with a grain of salt. In fact that's the very first time I went off like that in years in this community.

Because you didn't dispense them with a grain of salt.

You used the words and phrases:

"I've been screaming this from the rooftops... I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really?... So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea... absurd. ...They will learn the hard way."

We only have our chosen words in a setting like this, and those chosen words certainly land hard— at least to the point where they wouldn't engender being taken with a grain of salt.

[orly57]

You seem like an EXTREMELY educated person. You must grant me two things: 1. Mike trouts are one in a million. Collectors will spend way too much money chasing prospects that simply will not pan out. As Peter stated, a guy dropped a million bucks on a Strasbourg! It was cute when I chased Brien Taylor and Todd Van Poppel for 10 or 20 bucks, but it's dangerous to chase them in the five-figure range.
2. If the same card is printed with a minor difference in color, and they stamp 1/1000, 1/100, 1/50, 1/10, 1/5, and 1/1 on them, there are 1,166 of that card. The different color or stamp used by the card company to entice and trick people doesn't change that fact. This is nothing but a marketing ploy used to fool people into the illusion of rarity.

If you like modern players, by all means collect them. This hobby is meant to collect what we love. My anger is directed at the card companies and Beckett for propelling this fraud. Collect what you love. I'm just trying to share my experience from 31 years of collecting cards and watching can't-miss prospects fail. New generations always tell older generations that their experience is different, and we just don't understand. But the reality is that things don't change much, they just come in different packages.

[MattyC]

Orly,

I'd grant you all of that, and certainly agree with all of that.

All I took umbrage with was the perceived sentiment that anyone collecting the likes of an emerging talent is somehow making a big mistake, or being duped like a child or a fool.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think it's all related. What I see, from a limited vantage point anyhow, is that hype tends to drive a player's values sky high based on relatively brief periods of success, as though the market is already pricing in that the guy is going to be an all time great. How else can we explain prices way in excess of 1K (and I have no idea how high it goes) for a guy such a Judge who has had two months of success?

Trout, I get, he has five outstanding years in, and it's a relatively strong assumption that he will continue (but see recent injury). Relatively strong, because you have guys who fall way off even after 10 years. Griffey is an example of that, his second half was nowhere near his first. But two months -- in this context -- is way too soon IMO to be paying thousands for his cards. Unless money is no object.

Take a look back at what some Strasburg cards were selling for during his rookie year, when people already had him in the HOF.

Rocky Colavito, Cesar Cedeno, Ted Kluzewski, and on and on. Initial demand is speculative and transient. The real time to buy, when such demand has moved on to the latest and greatest phenoms, is when these guys have established a real HOF resume and are in their 30's downslide. Barring injury, though, I do like Judge and believe he will last--love the way he drives the ball from left center to right center, like Mantle did, and stays inside the pitch, with that lead shoulder following, not leading, his hands, so he doesn't open up too soon (unlike Harper, who violently yanks the lead shoulder open to start the swing, which is why he can serve it to but has no real power to left--once that shoulder is open and long gone, the only way to get the bat to the outside pitch is let it linger behind and drag it through the zone). Time alone will tell.


Hi, Pete,

Larry