The future of Shohei Ohtani

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

In the short term you are right he will put fans on the seats for the next few months, sell merchandise and get TV ratings.
When he leaves
Long term the seats will be emptier, the fans will buy less merchandise and ratings will be down.
Then someone else will pay the money to have him. And it will cost that team no player or prospects.
LA could have gotten a nice haul in return to hopefully make a winning team to help gain fans in seats, merchandise etc.

We will see what happens but I agree the next 2 months will be great for LA.

The next few years are the bigger question

They may have gotten a couple of future starting caliber players for him, but I doubt they would have pulled a "putting fans in the seats" type of player.

Teams don't normally give those guys up, and the Rookie contracts they are on, for a 2-3 month rental. They might for a full season of a top player...but not that short of a rental. I'm sure there might be a couple exceptions to the rule here, but unlikely the Angels would have struck gold on that front.

...and it's not just the next two months of capitalization for the Angels. This is the type of season they'll be able to merchandise for years to come...whether he's with them or not.

[Seven]

I see him staying on the West Coast. I don't see the Angels retaining him. They are far from a World Series winning, ball club. I would think the Giants, Mariners or Dodgers all have a better chance of signing him.

If he were to come to the east coast, I wouldn't discount the Mets, as Steve Cohen's pockets are very deep.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Seven

I see him staying on the West Coast. I don't see the Angels retaining him. They are far from a World Series winning, ball club. I would think the Giants, Mariners or Dodgers all have a better chance of signing him.

If he were to come to the east coast, I wouldn't discount the Mets, as Steve Cohen's pockets are very deep.

My money's on the Dodgers or the Padres. I know it's been a dumpster fire season in San Diego but they have crazy amounts of talent. And the proximity to Japan from the west coast is huge - I just don't see him going East

[Seven]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

My money's on the Dodgers or the Padres. I know it's been a dumpster fire season in San Diego but they have crazy amounts of talent. And the proximity to Japan from the west coast is huge - I just don't see him going East

I would agree on your latter point. I certainly think East Coast is a long shot. If Cohen were to pony up 50 Million more than the next highest bidder though, I wouldn't be surprised if he accepted it. Padres are another interesting team, that I forgot about. California, to me, seems so dominated by the Dodgers and Giants, that I often forget about the Padres when it comes to these discussions!

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Seven

I would agree on your latter point. I certainly think East Coast is a long shot. If Cohen were to pony up 50 Million more than the next highest bidder though, I wouldn't be surprised if he accepted it. Padres are another interesting team, that I forgot about. California, to me, seems so dominated by the Dodgers and Giants, that I often forget about the Padres when it comes to these discussions!

supposedly the 2 biggest things he wants to Stay on west coast and be on a winning team
San Fran and LA Dodgers can both afford to put up a lot of money and LA is deep and a winning team
Cohen can out spend perhaps but not on West Coast and after trading everyone especially Verlander many do not trust their formula for a winning team and do not see them on a good path (at least in the short term for a winning team)

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Seven

I see him staying on the West Coast. I don't see the Angels retaining him. They are far from a World Series winning, ball club. I would think the Giants, Mariners or Dodgers all have a better chance of signing him.

If he were to come to the east coast, I wouldn't discount the Mets, as Steve Cohen's pockets are very deep.

Giants have a good chance of backing up the truck for Ohtani after missing out on Judge & Correa (thank god). They have a huge 23 acre development outside of the Park that will generate substantial income for the team. Spend away Giants, spend away...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Shohei Ohtani 2024 Team Odds
Team Odds Implied Probability
Los Angeles Dodgers +300 25.0%
New York Yankees +450 18.2%
San Diego Padres +450 18.2%
New York Mets +550 15.4%
San Francsico Giants +800 11.1%
Los Angeles Angels +1000 9.1%
Texas Rangers +1500 6.3%
Chicago Cubs +2000 4.8%
Boston Red Sox +2000 4.8%
The Field +1150 8.0%

[bk400]

When you look at the Angels and see that he leads the team in every meaningful batting and pitching stat, you just wonder how bad they would be if you replaced him with a bunch of prospects and maybe a three or four Tier 2 veterans. And a previous poster is right in that Ohtani's less than fluent English probably doesn't hamper his ability to lead the team. So I take that back.

I'm going contrarian and predicting that he stays with the Angels long term. He's going to accept a lot less money than what he's worth in order to help them win a championship -- and he's going to go down as a legend in his adopted community. Something tells me he's listening to people like Ichiro, as opposed to the A-Rods of the world. And it would be better for the soul of baseball.

I grew up as a Mets fan, but please please please don't let him go work for that hedge fund guy.

Please.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by bk400

When you look at the Angels and see that he leads the team in every meaningful batting and pitching stat, you just wonder how bad they would be if you replaced him with a bunch of prospects and maybe a three or four Tier 2 veterans. And a previous poster is right in that Ohtani's less than fluent English probably doesn't hamper his ability to lead the team. So I take that back.

I'm going contrarian and predicting that he stays with the Angels long term. He's going to accept a lot less money than what he's worth in order to help them win a championship -- and he's going to go down as a legend in his adopted community. Something tells me he's listening to people like Ichiro, as opposed to the A-Rods of the world. And it would be better for the soul of baseball.

I grew up as a Mets fan, but please please please don't let him go work for that hedge fund guy.

Please.

Cannot disagree about most of your points. You are right. I am not concerned about the language.
But we will see how they replace all that production next years and the years going forward without those prospects and players they would have had.

Neither side is wrong in keeping or not keeping him. I just feel getting 2 months of Ohtani vs the long term potential of what they could have gotten is really going to hurt them.

and WOW #40 Last night and raising his average to .310 and on base to .413 is simply amazing.
Hopefully he is ok pitching short and long term as he had to stop pitching after great innings do to another minor issue.

[bk400]

Perhaps I am too much of a believer in motherhood and apple pie, but I'd like to think that the Angels had a man to man discussion with Ohtani in June and came to a gentleman's agreement about what his long term contract would be for 2024 and beyond. If Ohtani plays for two months and then leaves for another team, it would be such a tremendous loss of face for the Angels, and I just don't think Ohtani's camp would want that for the team that gave him his start in the MLB.

I also suspect that Ohtani has figured out that Tom Brady is a god in New England, Ichiro's money is no good at any bar in Seattle, and the whole world outside of Saudi Arabia thinks that Messi is awesome and Ronaldo is...less awesome.

Not that I would know, but I'd like to think that for athletes like Ohtani, legacy is the asset that they want to maximize.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

They may have gotten a couple of future starting caliber players for him, but I doubt they would have pulled a "putting fans in the seats" type of player.

Teams don't normally give those guys up, and the Rookie contracts they are on, for a 2-3 month rental. They might for a full season of a top player...but not that short of a rental. I'm sure there might be a couple exceptions to the rule here, but unlikely the Angels would have struck gold on that front.

...and it's not just the next two months of capitalization for the Angels. This is the type of season they'll be able to merchandise for years to come...whether he's with them or not.

you might be right but prior to them saying he was not going to be traded most sports news outlets and papers were saying that they would get a tremendous hall for him.

But it a mute point now so they can enjoy their 2 months to say goodby

[rats60]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

you might be right but prior to them saying he was not going to be traded most sports news outlets and papers were saying that they would get a tremendous hall for him.

But it a mute point now so they can enjoy their 2 months to say goodby

Who was offering a haul of prospects? All reports were that the Angels were not getting good offers. If the teams believed that he was only signing with a west coast team, they weren't offering much for a two month rental. The Angels would be better off trying to resign Ohtani and if they don't, take the draft pick at the end of round one instead of taking a bad offer.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by rats60

Who was offering a haul of prospects? All reports were that the Angels were not getting good offers. If the teams believed that he was only signing with a west coast team, they weren't offering much for a two month rental. The Angels would be better off trying to resign Ohtani and if they don't, take the draft pick at the end of round one instead of taking a bad offer.

Here is an article that talks about it from cbs sports as an example

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...-farm-systems/

and another from Sports illustrated as another example

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/07/19/sh...dgers-phillies

[Peter_Spaeth]

Dodgers.

But especially with the team still in the playoff hunt, no way they could have traded him.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Here is an article that talks about it from cbs sports as an example

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...-farm-systems/

and another from Sports illustrated as another example

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/07/19/sh...dgers-phillies

There are no actual trade offers in those articles. Writers like to throw out trades that have no chance of happening just to get clicks.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by rats60

There are no actual trade offers in those articles. Writers like to throw out trades that have no chance of happening just to get clicks.

Has there were no offers because he was not made available or perhaps some were made behind closed doors and we will never know.

I am just showing what writers who no the industry (and some that may not) think offers that different teams would need to make it worth both teams.

They do that in every sport and then they grade the trades they occurs because that is what the mass of sports fans like seeing the analysis and the opinions to get a feel for how their teams and trades did

But again it is all moot since he was not made available for trade and the Angels will have him for 2 months and then we will see where he goes and how the Angels do going forward