State of the Post War Market

[Johnny630]

For whatever reasons the prices of 2015-2016 real or false have come down considerably.

It seems like the Major Auction House Market has been flooded with HOF Rookies and Ugly Old Gift Grades of Star Cards.

Higher End Raw Sets have seem to held their own, actually are doing quite well.

Speaking in only investment mode, as far as long term capital appreciation on post war cards in general it is my opinion that prices will continue to drop in the near future on high end cards.


What Say You ??

I would never consider more then 5% of retirement investment in cards.
The Hobby is way to fun to worry about money. It is cool to think about it :-)

[dio]

i think it came down a lot. maybe it will come down further who knows.
Buy low i think , i rarely sell my cards anyway.

[darkhorse9]

I never looked at my collection as an investment for me. I consider it a gift for my son.

My collection has been assembled for my enjoyment. When I die that enjoyment goes with me. I got my value out of it. My son has explicit directions to sell my collection for as much as he can and then spend that money on something he would enjoy.

Whatever money my son gets from it will have no relevance to what I paid for it. It's all free money for him to enjoy.

I see that as a huge win/win for my collection.

[ALR-bishop]

Don't care about investment angle. Still a hobby for me

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Don't care about investment angle. Still a hobby for me

High five!

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Don't care about investment angle. Still a hobby for me

Same here.

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[jchcollins]

I have the theoretical knowledge to make decisions on cards as "an investment", but not the discipline. Sometimes I know which cards I shouldn't buy, but I want them now, dammit. Just as "buy low, sell high" is also a smart approach with cards, I seemingly don't have the patience for that either. Whenever I even need to move cards just to pay for something new I just couldn't resist, I seem to have a lousy track record at selling at the high end of the market.

I have 2 daughters, one who is into baseball right now and the other not so much. My cards (whatever is left, anyway) will go to them and they can treasure them as I would or dispose of them as they please as circumstances dictate...

[Marchillo]

Originally Posted by darkhorse9

I never looked at my collection as an investment for me. I consider it a gift for my son.

My collection has been assembled for my enjoyment. When I die that enjoyment goes with me. I got my value out of it. My son has explicit directions to sell my collection for as much as he can and then spend that money on something he would enjoy.

Whatever money my son gets from it will have no relevance to what I paid for it. It's all free money for him to enjoy.

I see that as a huge win/win for my collection.

This is a fantastic way of thinking. My son is only 2 and he gets my whole collection when I’m gone. I’m holding out hope it’s something he enjoys and we can do it together. But if not he can do whatever he wants with it when I’m gone. If he’s into it, he’ll probably get most of it while I’m still here.

[David W]

With the stock market returning almost 20% last year why would you invest in cards?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by David W

With the stock market returning almost 20% last year why would you invest in cards?

Agree +1

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by David W

With the stock market returning almost 20% last year why would you invest in cards?

Playing a bit of Devil's Advocate here, but one can't invest in last year's stock market today, right? So if somebody with an educated opinion prefers investing in cards over the market today, it's certainly possible that it's the better choice.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by David W

With the stock market returning almost 20% last year why would you invest in cards?

And you think that trend is going to continue?

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

My vantage point is very much a minority perspective I am sure. I backed away from higher grade cards long ago and opted instead for quality mid-grade cards within complete sets that I could more readily afford and stay married. I collect baseball and football sets from the 1950s and 1960s. Over the last month, I have been able to acquire two nice partial sets at what I considered a good value. The baseball partial set was a 1954 Topps set 242/250. It was a largely crease-free vgex partial and all ungraded. On the other side of the coin, the football partial was 137/198 with all the major cards except for one and all graded..very nice. In each instance, I was able to pick up nearly entire sets for the price of about three of the major cards.

I haven't really thought about "the market" front and center all that often in terms of my collecting. My experience has taught me at least a couple of lessons. First, patience is a virtue. I got so tired of hearing this from experienced collectors when I was younger, but it is defintely true. The second a collector determines he must have a certain card at a certain high grade during a specific time table, that collector will likely pay more for that card than he needs to. The person I bought the baseball partial from lost patience and money and bailed on a project because he hadn't adequately planned. Second, I am reminded that most collectors I know outside of Net54 are simply collectors who have a passion for their cards. They often collect with their hearts and not their heads. I think of these folks as the secondary market. They don't even know what Net54 is, and most of them don't even acknowledge the big auction houses because they are too pricey for them. Most of these guys collect what they like and would never sell. Their cards don't come to market. If they get in money trouble, they are going to probably sell to another collector in the secondary market, and no one else will ever know. You have to remember participants here on Net54 are an extremely small percentage of collectors.

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[LeftHandedDane]

I think what most people are saying, which I totally agree with, is that there is not a single market for cards, but multiple markets. The major auction houses traffic almost exclusively in high end, graded cards of the most sought after stars. That market appears very hot, but is quickly transforming from a hobby market into an investment market. Much more data is available and there are many in the market whose primary focus is to turn a profit rather than acquire a prized collectible.

On the other hand, there is the traditional collectible market with its wide range of sub-markets: pre-war, post-war, modern, regional, etc. across one category; registry collectors, raw set builders, and so on in other categories. I think prices in this market tend to change much more slowly except where it bumps into the investment market. As someone who collects in this market - a raw set builder - it can be frustrating to see so much emphasis on high-end, investment grade cards that at times it seems like it gets harder and harder to find the cards I am looking for.

[avalanche2006]

I know what your talking about Ed. I am a high grade raw set builder who is close to completing 1958, 1959, and 1960. I often buy graded cards that meet my specifications and crack them open. The raw cards that I find on ebay rarely make the grade. I am now focusing on SGC graded cards, due to members input.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by avalanche2006

I know what your talking about Ed. I am a high grade raw set builder who is close to completing 1958, 1959, and 1960. I often buy graded cards that meet my specifications and crack them open. The raw cards that I find on ebay rarely make the grade. I am now focusing on SGC graded cards, due to members input.

With the huge amount of those cards floating around (50s-60s Topps), and more coming out by the thousands (or millions, see Leland's) I would think you could still find nice NRMT and better raw cards from those years. I am pretty darned sure they are out there. It's just a matter of finding them.