Market flattening definitely

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by calvindog

High end cards, postcards, T206s and the cards noted above are more expensive than they have ever been. A PSA 8 1914 CJ Cobb sold for 144K the other night; it sold for 44K less than three years ago.

PSA 7 Ruth sold for $552,000 and 1907 Seamless Steel Tubes Ty Cobb with Cobb writing content for $84,000 as the last Heritage auction. Seamless Cobb in Good 2 went for $24,000 in the last REA auction. Autographed 1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb--$26,000. Non-autographed Fielding Pose just under $11,000 at auction in 2015 in PSA 5, up from the $4,000 I paid for one in the very same grade in 2011. I'd say rare and significant items (condition rarity for the Ruth) are doing quite well.

Regards,

Larry

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

PSA 7 Ruth sold for $552,000 and 1907 Seamless Steel Tubes Ty Cobb with Cobb writing content for $84,000 as the last Heritage auction. Seamless Cobb in Good 2 went for $24,000 in the last REA auction. Autographed 1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb--$26,000. Non-autographed Fielding Pose just under $11,000 at auction in 2015 in PSA 5, up from the $4,000 I paid for one in the very same grade in 2011. I'd say rare and significant items (condition rarity for the Ruth) are doing quite well.

Regards,

Larry

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

[Snapolit1]

After the Ruth rookie card, the second highest grossing card in Heritage this week, the Mantle gem 10 56 Topps, only dropped $22,000 from the one they sold last Fall.

Bottoms up . . .more purple Kool Aid. Line is forming.

[Snapolit1]

Third highest grossing card in Heritage, the Mantle 1951 Bowman, exceeded the last sale but is comfortably below the average sale price for the last year.

But everything is going up. Terrible how confused I was.

Drink up.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

After the Ruth rookie card, the second highest grossing card in Heritage this week, the Mantle gem 10 56 Topps, only dropped $22,000 from the one they sold last Fall.

Bottoms up . . .more purple Kool Aid. Line is forming.

The guy who won the one last fall is out and no longer bidding (only a guess, of course). Take one heavy bidder out and the price will go down. The market for six figure cards is thinner than the one for meat-and-potatoes cards (defined as those that most serious collectors will regularly pursue). The loss of even one bidder on the high end cards may lower the final price. Also, some of the six figure cards are plentiful. There are thousands of Sandy Koufax rookies but look what the PSA 9 went for in REA. It's a crazy price given the availability of high end examples.

[ullmandds]

nothing goes up and up forever. last year there were artificial forces driving up prices of common high grade cards. this combined with the shilling/reserve/auctions bidding on their items...past/resent behavior of auction houses has artificially driven up prices over the last few years.

if a minor correction is occurring...or more normal valuations are being realized...who cares?

[Snapolit1]

If you consigned the top three selling cards sold at Heritage this week you got about $200,000 less than they sold for a few months ago.

Yeah, sure, its up up up.

[Snapolit1]

Fourth top grossing card In Heritage, the 52 Mantle, came in at $168K, same as REA but below recent average. Really below a 217K figure from 2015.

But I'm sure that too is shooting up in value. Gulp gulp.

Yeah, I'll stop now. Done with the Kool Aid for one night.

[MattyC]

Of course the thread degenerates into the dueling banjo data points. Tit for tat. And accomplishes what? Why would one care about what prices other people's cards are selling for? Just collect what you love to look at.

[RedsFan1941]

Since this has become a game of picking and choosing random cards to make an absurd point, I will play.

W600 green mount Lajoie is a PSA 5 holder with an MK sold in REA last spring for 45000. A different example in an SGC 4.5 holder sold last Thursday for 60000 in Heritage.

Case closed. The baseball card market is up across the board 33 percent from a year ago.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Fourth top grossing card In Heritage, the 52 Mantle, came in at $168K, same as REA but below recent average. Really below a 217K figure from 2015.

But I'm sure that too is shooting up in value. Gulp gulp.

Yeah, I'll stop now. Done with the Kool Aid for one night.

Comparing the market for otherwise quite common 50's and '60's cards in ultra high grade with truly rare and significant vintage items (read: 25 or even far less in existence) is apples versus oranges. Sounds like someone spiked the Kool Aid.

Larry

[RedsFan1941]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

Two different cards, not the "same exact Ruth card." Cheaper one had poor centering, print lines and a soft corner.

Not sure why people who disagree with a blanket statement like yours are drinking kool-aid. My entire collection isn't worth a quarter of one of these cards you use as examples, so I don't care much if a "market" is flat. I've never looked at baseball cards as a market. In other words, I have no dog in this fight.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

I remember a PSA 10 Rose going for that--honestly do not recall the Ruth selling for that at PSA 7. I know Tony Arnold sold one in NrMt for just under $300,000 about five years ago. Two transactions just months apart tell you very little with regard to any investment in any event, since ALL will show ups and downs in the short term. Look at the forest and not the trees over a multi-year period, and the picture is pretty clear (although I do think the Ruth will trend downwards--although the significance is immense, there are just too many to sustain those prices IMHO). A 1925 Exhibit Gehrig in G-VG could be had for right around $6500 ten to twelve years ago; now it'll take $30-$40K. Now, if you are talking gem mint 10's of 50's and 60's cards, or even "9's" in some cases, you should see an up and down trend continuing over time, as these cards exist in significant quantities in very presentable but slightly lesser grades. I prefer to think that the supply of "collectors" paying tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars for a plastic holder and paper slip inside is pretty limited at any one time, but will vary with the ingress and egress of investor-types. $20,000 for a PSA 10 Rickey Henderson rookie, and right around $450 for a very nice 9??? There is no way in the world that the "10" is 40-50x the card that the nine is in any rational mind!

But to each his own--what a boring world this would be if everyone thought exactly alike!

Regards,

Larry

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

this is also totally true...im seeing more of a premium for well centered cards than ever!

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

this is also totally true...im seeing more of a premium for well centered cards than ever!

Absolutely Peter. Especially holy grail type cards such as the Ruth rookie; 51 Bowman & 52 Topps Mantles; T206 Cobbs, Johnsons, Youngs; Ruth/Gehrig Goudeys; iconic 50's/60,s rookie cards; etc. Extremely well centered cards are realizing up to 50% premiums in some intances, substantiati why VCP pricing points are rendered virtually useless when analyzing a well centered card's market value.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

The 717k Ruth was badly off centered, about 75/25.

[Dpeck100]

There might be pockets of weakness but the trading card market as a whole is in an uptrend.

From the CLCT press release on May 3rd.


That increase was driven by a $0.8 million, or 7%, increase in coin
service revenues and a $0.4 million, or 11%, increase in cards and autograph
service revenues.



Robert Deuster, Chief Executive Officer, stated, “We are very pleased with
the performance of our Company this last quarter and the growth in revenue and
profit achieved so far this year. The year-to-date growth in our international
and modern coin businesses are indicative of our focus on organic growth in
segments where brand preference, innovation and presence are important. The
momentum in our sports card business reflects the confidence collectors have
in graded cards and the rate of card submissions remains very high. Our US
businesses during the quarter provided strength to our overall global grading
activity, where Asian demand was lower due to seasonal holidays, resulting in
another record quarterly performance. Our outlook for 2017 remains very
positive.”

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by rats60

The 717k Ruth was badly off centered, about 75/25.

Not even close. I just measured both based on super-sized scans. $717K Ruth approximately 60/40. $552 Ruth approx. 30/70 (give or take of course). That equates to a 10% difference on each border or an overall 20% disparity to the visual appeal. Bottom line is the difference between a 60/40 card and 30/70 card is immense. Now add in two glaring print lines and that strongly justifies the pricing variance between the two cards.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

Not even close. I just measured both based on super-sized scans. $717K Ruth approximately 60/40. $552 Ruth approx. 30/70 (give or take of course). That equates to a 10% difference on each border or an overall 20% disparity to the visual appeal. Bottom line is the difference between a 60/40 card and 30/70 card is immense. Now add in two glaring print lines and that strongly justifies the pricing variance between the two cards.

One thing to note are both are currently available for purchase.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

One thing to note are both are currently available for purchase.

Interesting. Thx for posting the 2 scans. The centering disparity between the two cards is quite obvious. 👍

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

PSA 7 Ruth sold for $552,000 and 1907 Seamless Steel Tubes Ty Cobb with Cobb writing content for $84,000 as the last Heritage auction. Seamless Cobb in Good 2 went for $24,000 in the last REA auction. Autographed 1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb--$26,000. Non-autographed Fielding Pose just under $11,000 at auction in 2015 in PSA 5, up from the $4,000 I paid for one in the very same grade in 2011. I'd say rare and significant items (condition rarity for the Ruth) are doing quite well.

Regards,

Larry

I think Its easy to find arguments to make your point. Just last month Lou sold to Jim a Fielding Dietsche Cobb here in the BST for 1975.00 (unless Jim got him to even take less). The 25 Gehrig exhibit you mentioned, I agree could be had for 6500.00 3 years ago in G-VG condition. But using that same condition we look at the most recent sale of it in the Goodwin auction which went for a little over 18k and no where near the 40k.

Autographed cards are in an entirely differently collector arena. I would not even compare the same issue to each other. The Seamless Tubes Cobb is a great postcard. Like Barry said, if/when another one comes up, I'm pretty sure the winner of the last two (Heritage/REA) won't be going strong after a new example.

Most anything rare and good will always do well in a bear or bull market. Buy the nicest condition you can afford and buy stuff that has a known track record along with the right name (Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Matty, Wajo, Wagner, etc..).

I agree that postcards and CJs are hot along with other issues like SL Cabinets and auto cards. But those don't represent the entire market. Do I agree the market is flattening? No way! If anything, it's exciting seeing the realized prices on many issues and hearing about private sales that take place.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

I think Its easy to find arguments to make your point. Just last month Lou sold to Jim a Fielding Dietsche Cobb here in the BST for 1975.00 (unless Jim got him to even take less).

With all due respect to Lou, that one would have been at its very best a Good 2 (Mk), as it was certainly nowhere near a PSA 5 condition-wise, and was postally used, with a great deal of writing (and not Cobb's) on the back. Hardly a good comparison to the "5" which sold for $10,800+ in 2015, but I would call it a good, astute buy for the long term nonetheless (recently saw that a V351 Williams rookie in 1.5 Fair went for just $500 in a small auction--I would have snapped that one up to go with my Ex+ and considered it a steal for a long term hold had I seen it).

Regards,

Larry

[calvindog]

This is the one which didn't go for $10,875.70.