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  #21  
Old 01-24-2018, 06:29 PM
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Woohoo go Pats!🎈📌
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  #22  
Old 01-25-2018, 03:11 AM
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Come on, Peter. That's kind of a dismissive statement, don't you think?

I have watched the games. Many of them. Every Super Bowl. A great number of the playoff games. I've not only watched them live, I've taped several of them, and watched them a second time. And, I've watched a plethora of key plays on Youtube more times than I can count. I allow for "the human factor" in my analysis; I have to. Not everything translates, statistically. You can't quantify the pressure of the moment. A receiver (or a safety) falling down. A tipped pass. I would never make a statement about Tom Brady, or any other player, simply off of statistical data.

I remember the 2001 AFC Divisional playoff game against the Raiders where Charles Woodson caused Brady to fumble. Brady should have never even gotten to that first Super Bowl, because the Raiders recovered, and the game should have been over with a Raiders victory. The "tuck rule" is complete BS. He wasn't in the process of throwing a pass. He started to, but brought the ball back down to his body, and then the ball got stripped. Part of his "legacy", his five rings, is a joke.

And I don't care what anybody else says. Having an elite defense in every one of those years he's won it all makes his job a hell of a lot easier. No matter who he has on the offensive side of the ball with him, if he screws up, he's got the security that his defense is going to bail him out a great deal of the time. It's much easier to win playoff games when the defense is incredible because you can push the ball downfield. You don't have to be perfect. No mistake? You score, and your chance of winning greatly increases. Screw it up? Your defense is not likely to allow the other team to score. Don't you think there's infinitely more pressure to perform on the shoulders of a guy like Aaron Rodgers? If he doesn't make a play, his team likely loses. More on that in a bit.

He should have lost the Super Bowl to Seattle. A brain fart call cost them a second title, and gave Brady another ring.

Again, I'm not saying Brady's not an incredible quarterback. He's clearly one of the best of all-time. But it's not a walk off (to use a baseball term in a football discussion) that he's the best to ever play the position. Look past the rings. Too often, we get distracted by shiny things. You have to look deeper at the individual's play within the success.

He's only ranked 13th in postseason passer rating. If he were the greatest ever, wouldn't he be higher? This whole discussion is based on what he's done in the post season. Well, I'm sorry, but a 90.1 QB rating is very good, but not outstanding. Bart Starr put up a 104.8 career passer rating in the post season. He went 9-1 in the playoffs. A .900 winning percentage. Both of those destroy Brady, and Starr played in an era where passing the ball was infinitely more difficult. He won five World Championships in seven years, and his one loss was in the 1960 NFL Championship against the Eagles.

Starr played in an era where the quarterback and receiver didn't get the ridiculous amount of protection they do now. They could, you know, actually get hit. If the ball came out when Starr got tackled, it was a fumble. No zebras were on the sidelines helping him out.

You know how many times the Patriots, in 36 post season games with Tom Brady at QB, have allowed more than 30 points to an opponent? 3 times. 1 time in every 12 starts, or 8.3% of the time Brady takes the field. They've never given up 40.

Compare that to the Packers with Aaron Rodgers. In 16 games with Rodgers at the helm, the Packers have surrendered 30 or more points 5 times. 1 time in every 3.2 starts, or 31% of the time Rodgers takes the field. And in 3 of those 5 games, the Packer D surrendered over 40 points, something the Patriots have never done under Brady. So much is made about Rodgers' legacy of "failure" in the post season. "He's only won one ring." In his first playoff start, Rodgers threw for 423 yards and 4 TD, and ran another in. The Packers put up 45 points--and lost 51-45 because the defense imploded. And the final play of the game, a fumble by Rodgers returned by the Cardinals for a score, should have been overturned. The Cardinal defender grabbed Rodgers facemask, and pulled his helmet down over his face. Had that been Brady, you know the play would have been overruled by the officials. By the way, in 36 career post season starts, Brady has thrown for more than 423 yards once, and more than 4 TD passes once. Rodgers did it in his first post season start. And lost. Was it Rodgers fault the defense gave up 45 points? How about when the Packers lost 31-45 to the 49ers in 2012? Is it Rodgers' fault that Collin Kaepernick, who can't even get a job in the NFL five years later, passed for 262 yards, and ran for 184? Is it Rodgers fault that the Packer D and special teams imploded in Seattle in the NFC Championship Game? Or, that the Packer D gave up 44 to the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game last year? Rodgers played without his #2 receiver, Davante Adams. His #1 receiver Jordy Nelson had missed the Cowboys game the week before, and could barely walk because of a broken rib. Both his starting halfbacks, Eddie Lacy and James Starks, were out for the season, so his wide receiver Ty Montgomery had to start at running back. But it's Rodgers "failure" as a quarterback. Tom Brady would have won, right?

Now, Brady has played slightly over twice as many games as Rodgers, but there's enough of a sample size to make these comparisons.

Brady has a career 90.1 passer rating in the post season.
Rodgers has a 99.4.

The Patriots have scored 969 points in 36 playoff games under Brady, or 26.9 ppg.
The Packers have scored 457 points in 16 playoff games under Rodgers, or 28.6 ppg.

So, under Rodgers, the Packers have outperformed the Brady Patriots by 1.7 ppg. Not a huge difference, about a safety. But it's still clear that Rodgers and the Packer offense have been better than Brady and the Patriot offense in the playoffs.

But here is the difference.

The Patriots have allowed 722 points in 36 playoff games with Brady, or 20.1 ppg.
The Packers have allowed 423 points in 16 playoff games with Rodgers, or 26.4 ppg.
The Patriots defense have surrendered nearly a full touchdown, per game, less than the Packers. 6.3 ppg. At least two field goals. And that is why Brady has five rings, and Rodgers only one. It's not because Brady has performed better. It's because the Patriots have had a terrific scoring defense. The Packers have not, outside of the season they won the Super Bowl (they were #2 in scoring allowed).

Look at the point differential.

The Pats have scored 247 more points in the playoffs than they have allowed, in 36 games.
The Packers have scored 34 more points in the playoffs than they have allowed, in 16 games.
The Pats have an average margin of 6.86 points per game. Nearly a touchdown.
The Packers have an average margin of 2.12 points per game.

And that's post season. Look at how the two teams have fared in scoring defense in the regular season.



In 17 seasons with Brady, the Patriots defense has finished outside the top 10 in scoring defense only 3 times! And every season they've won the Super Bowl, they've been top 10: 6th, 1st, 2nd, 8th and 1st.

In 10 years with Rodgers, the Packer defense has finished in the top 10 in scoring defense only 2 times! Look where the Packer D has ended up each season in points allowed. The last seven seasons, since winning the Super Bowl, the Packers have finished, on average, 18th in the league. The last 5, 19th in the league, out of 32 teams. Put another way, the Packers have finished in the bottom half in the NFL in points allowed four of the last seven seasons. The Patriots? They've done that twice in 17 seasons. Average finish in the NFL in scoring for their careers? The Patriots have finished 8th (7.52) in the NFL in scoring defense, on average, for Brady's career. Top 1/4 of the league for the entirety of the time he's been in the NFL. The Packers? 16th, on average (15.7). Middle of the NFL.

And that's just the defense.

Anybody saying that Tom Brady is simply "the greatest" because of his rings really needs to look deeper.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Bill you should watch the games, not just read the stat sheet. After all these years, and titles, and comeback victories, with innumerable different receivers, with or without decent running backs, with Gronk playing or not playing, it doesn't seem to matter, there is no question in my mind he is the greatest QB ever. The more interesting discussion is about the rest of the top 5, or 10.
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  #23  
Old 01-25-2018, 03:19 AM
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See, now the bolded part is pure hyperbole. Because in 2008, they did lose Brady. The year after he was First Team NFL All Pro, and NFL MVP for the first time, he blew out his ACL in week one. Attempted 11 passes before getting hurt.

The Patriots without "Tom Terrific" went 11-5. They suffered soooo mightily as Matt Cassel came in and threw for 3,700 yards and 21 TD passes. Somehow, without Captain America, Wes Welker and Randy Moss both managed to go for over 1,000 yards. Welker went to the Pro Bowl.

And this?

"High performance. Brady brings that to level not seen before."

What level is that? 13th best, all-time, in the post season?

Again, pure hyperbole. It sounds good. But factually, inaccurate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KCRfan1 View Post
Look no further than Green Bay this season for how important the quarterback is. The loss of AR flipped their season. Even with other injuries, the quarterback was key, and usually is with teams.

Brady drives the Pats. They can have injury and turnover at other positions, but not at QB.

It's not the X's and O's, it's the Jimmy's and the Joe's. Play calling is important, more importantly is the players and execution. High performance. Brady brings that to level not seen before. His overall body of work is superior to others and is the GOAT.
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  #24  
Old 01-25-2018, 03:42 AM
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Oh, and before any of you guys want to dismiss what I'm saying as "being a Brady/Patriots hater"...please, just stop before you begin. If I didn't have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, would I have Brady taking snaps from Corey Linsley? Hell, yes. In a New York minute. He might be smug, at times, but so is Rodgers. Show me a Hall of Fame athlete in any sport that doesn't come across as confident at one time or another? I think the Patriots have done some questionable things, yes. But so have other NFL teams. The difference is that the Patriots had the spotlight shined on them because of their success.

I don't hate Brady, or the Pats. Now, if he played for the Vikings, that would be a different story. But the basis of my analysis is made without any personal bias. I'm a Packer fan, absolutely. I think Rodgers is the best to ever play the game. He doesn't have the rings because his team and coaching staff haven't been as good as those in Boston. But as a pure passer, nobody has ever played the game at a higher level. I say that with a caveat because the rules of the game have changed. Marino might have thrown 50 TDs every year had he played today.

But when the narrative of Super Bowl rings is removed, how can you objectively state that Brady is the best ever? The numbers don't support that assessment. Rodgers has had one comeback after another. Only, he doesn't get the press because the Packers defense blows it. He loses. Brady wins. He has the Packers ahead of Seattle with a few minutes left, and then the D and special teams turn into the keystone cops. With a minute remaining, he drives them the length of the field, and Crosby kicks a field goal to tie it. Then the Packer D falls flat on their face again. Rodgers, playing on one leg, misses a chance to go to his second Super Bowl. And therein is the difference. The Patriots wouldn't have done this:

With 3:52 left in the game, the Packers leading 19-7...
The Packer D allowed Seattle to go 69 yards for a touchdown in 1:16. 19-14 Pack.
The Packer special teams then allowed Seattle to recover an onside kick.
The Packer D allowed Seattle to go 50 yards for a touchdown in :40. 20-19 Seattle.
The Packer D allowed Seattle a two-point conversion. 22-19 Seattle.

Aaron Rodgers takes the Packers 48 yards in 1 minute, and Crosby kicks the tying field goal. 22-22.

On 3rd and 7, the Packer D gives up a 35 yard pass play to Doug Baldwin.
Next play, the Packer D gives up a 35 yard pass play to Jermaine Kearse. Touchdown. Seattle wins 28-22.

Think that would have ever happened in New England?
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  #25  
Old 01-25-2018, 06:05 AM
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I`ll take Brady.
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  #26  
Old 01-25-2018, 07:33 AM
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Bill, I don't know the answer to this, but is it possible the Patriots' defensive statistics are in part attributable to the success of the offense under Brady, either in that the opponents' time of possession is reduced, and/or that the opponents are behind more than usual and forced to play out of their normal game? I've certainly seen a lot of that in watching games but not sure it's a statistically valid observation.
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 01-25-2018 at 07:34 AM.
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  #27  
Old 01-25-2018, 08:00 AM
1952boyntoncollector 1952boyntoncollector is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steve B View Post
If the defense is average to bad, there's more chance you're playing while behind, and that traditionally means more passing. So it does affect the stats. If I had the time and inclination I'd do some sort of math study of it, but I'm just not that into the math.

I did use that sort of concept playing fantasy FB, which is pretty much about nothing but stats. I only put maybe 2-3 players in my draft list, and by week three there was always a good idea who was becoming "good" and had been overlooked. SO for me the revolving door spun a lot!
Had Welker on the Dolphins when we got points for return yards..
And Gore with SF the same.
Then the guy running it took away return yards.
Had a nice run of kickers with range who played for teams with really average offenses. Made the difference a few times.
The he took away the huge point difference between 30-50 yard FGs and 50+
Had Brady for a change when Moss was on the team.
Next year he changed QB touchdowns from 6 points to 4....

Eventually he gave up.
I think I won 3 times in 7 years, second twice more and only missed the playoffs once.
We not talking about fantasy football. When you are down, yes you can get more passing yards but also at a risk of INTs...you dont see QBs who lose 40-24 usually throw for 3 tds and 0 picks....

its not like Brady is throwing for 220 yards and managing the games. He is throwing for enough yards and 'winning' enough games in my book to reach critical mass to be declared the best even when compared to any players that 'crush' him in yards/tds etc or would have crushed him if they played today.

Plus Brady has shown to win games with a bunch of rotating WR RBs that have cycled throughout the league. Marino clayton and duper is not even closes to montana having Taylor/Rice and many more other better options.

Basically if we list the best options Brady had , i believe for the most part its Brady (and the Brady/Pats system) that made them great.

Matt Cassal did win 10 games though...anyway..


Bill Russell is sort of lumped into the great, but it was his team category. I dont think Brady is remotely close to Russell. In todays modern era in football and salary cap and concussions, good luck ever seeing another QB go and start in 8 superbowls ever again.

Last edited by 1952boyntoncollector; 01-25-2018 at 08:06 AM.
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  #28  
Old 01-25-2018, 09:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Bill you should watch the games, not just read the stat sheet. After all these years, and titles, and comeback victories, with innumerable different receivers, with or without decent running backs, with Gronk playing or not playing, it doesn't seem to matter, there is no question in my mind he is the greatest QB ever. The more interesting discussion is about the rest of the top 5, or 10.
I remember when football was a game played by the players, before their helmets were headsets and the real quarterbacks called their own plays.

Now you have offensive coordinators, defensive coordinators, all with access to instaneous video of what the other team is doing in alignments and reactions to each other. Every team has a plethora of coaching personnel both on the sideline and in the press box.

The NFL has become a giant video game orchestrated from off the field. Yeah, they can call audibles before the snap, but many of these can be communicated from off the field.

Letís face it, the players are like pawns on a chess board. Does anyone ever talk about the best bishop or rook of all-time? Does anyone think that Brady or Rodgers is a queen? Hell no.

Is any quarterback solely responsible for calling dumb ass play that costs team a game? Rarely if ever.

In my opinion the responsibility for the Patriots run falls squarely on the shoulders of the man in the hoodie, Bill Belichick.
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  #29  
Old 01-25-2018, 09:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the 'stache View Post
The Patriots without "Tom Terrific" went 11-5. They suffered soooo mightily as Matt Cassel came in and threw for 3,700 yards and 21 TD passes. Somehow, without Captain America, Wes Welker and Randy Moss both managed to go for over 1,000 yards. Welker went to the Pro Bowl.
The season before, with the same receivers and playing a tougher schedule, Tom Brady put up 50 TDs and 4,800 yards. That is a major drop off, especially as all 5 of the 2008 Patriots losses were to playoff bound teams. In 2007, Randy Moss alone caught 23 TDs from Brady, 2 more than Cassel put up the entire following year. You canít look at the stats and not see how losing Brady hurt them in a big way, especially on a team that missed the playoffs on tiebreakers.

As for the Patriots defense bailing him out all the time, he dragged the 31st ranked defense to Super Bowl 46, where Bill Belichick had so little faith in them he gave up a score to the Giants to get the offense back on the field sooner. Then two years ago, he lead the #1 offense even though all his favorite targets missed significant time that year. Gronkowski and Edelman missed several games as did Amendola, and defense captain Jerod Mayo was banged up so badly he retired after the season. In spite of this, in Denver, against the #1 defense with his center, Bryan Stork, tipping the snaps, they were a pair of missed PATs away from going to SB 50.
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  #30  
Old 01-25-2018, 09:42 AM
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Bill, I believe that Brady caught a break on the tuck rule as well. But, if you are using Starr's 9-1 record, you also have to acknowledge the break he caught. In 1965, trailing 10-7 with 1:58 left in a playoff game against the Colts (in which Tom Matte, the running back, was the Colts' quarterback due to injuries to Unitas and Cuozzo), the Packers' kicker made a 22 yard field goal. Well, the referee said he made it, but television replays showed it was wide. There was no replay, so it stands. The Packers go on to win the game in overtime (with Zeke Bratkowski at QB for the Packers after Starr was injured, yet Starr gets credit for that win), and the following week, the Packers beat the Browns for the title. If the field goal is ruled correctly, it is a Colts vs Browns NFL Championship Game. Starr has one less ring. Maybe they dismantle some of the pieces and don't go on to win those Super Bowls. Who knows?
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