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  #121  
Old 06-27-2017, 06:25 PM
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I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.
.288 in 1979. Some would call that close.
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  #122  
Old 06-27-2017, 06:25 PM
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Again, I have to disagree.

Jim Thome was 24 before his first full season.

Mariano Rivera was 25 and 26 before he recorded his first save.

Trevor Hoffman was 25 and missed induction by 1 percent last year.

Edgar Martinez was 27 when he entered his first full season. He got almost 60 % of the vote last year and has been climbing every year he's been eligible.

David Ortiz was 27 too before his first season on the Red Sox. A lot of people see him as a HOFer.

Ichiro was 27.

I don't think age really is an indicator.
Boggs was 24. The brilliant Red Sox management kept him in the minors for years lol.
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 06-27-2017 at 06:31 PM.
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  #123  
Old 06-28-2017, 05:31 PM
ls7plus ls7plus is offline
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Simplest Judge investment advice:

Short term, sure fine go for it and flip those cards

Long term: doubtful based on baseball history. Probably too late of a start (age 25) for the HOF.

This would all change is somehow he hit 71 homers in a season without steroids or the Yankees win a couple of World Series with him as the key player.

To me, he's a better Dave Kingman or as noted Frank Howard.

Rich
Rich, with all due respect, I think the PED genie is one you never, ever get back in the bottle with the current salary levels. Does anyone really think Starling Marte was the only one taking Nandrolone? My bet is that an effective masking agent was developed, which Marte thought he was getting, but someone sold him a bill of goods instead. I don't think we will ever know for certain who is or has been using PED's. I separate baseball history into two eras in this regard: pre-1985 and post-1985, but without any real prejudice--the PED era simply represents the conditions under which the game has and IMHO IS being played. I, for one, really enjoyed seeing Mark McGwire play. Just don't try to directly compare the two or players from different eras. That's simply apples and oranges.

Regards,

Larry

Last edited by ls7plus; 06-28-2017 at 05:32 PM.
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  #124  
Old 06-28-2017, 05:36 PM
ls7plus ls7plus is offline
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Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
I think it's all related. What I see, from a limited vantage point anyhow, is that hype tends to drive a player's values sky high based on relatively brief periods of success, as though the market is already pricing in that the guy is going to be an all time great. How else can we explain prices way in excess of 1K (and I have no idea how high it goes) for a guy such a Judge who has had two months of success?

Trout, I get, he has five outstanding years in, and it's a relatively strong assumption that he will continue (but see recent injury). Relatively strong, because you have guys who fall way off even after 10 years. Griffey is an example of that, his second half was nowhere near his first. But two months -- in this context -- is way too soon IMO to be paying thousands for his cards. Unless money is no object.

Take a look back at what some Strasburg cards were selling for during his rookie year, when people already had him in the HOF.
Rocky Colavito, Cesar Cedeno, Ted Kluzewski, and on and on. Initial demand is speculative and transient. The real time to buy, when such demand has moved on to the latest and greatest phenoms, is when these guys have established a real HOF resume and are in their 30's downslide. Barring injury, though, I do like Judge and believe he will last--love the way he drives the ball from left center to right center, like Mantle did, and stays inside the pitch, with that lead shoulder following, not leading, his hands, so he doesn't open up too soon (unlike Harper, who violently yanks the lead shoulder open to start the swing, which is why he can serve it to but has no real power to left--once that shoulder is open and long gone, the only way to get the bat to the outside pitch is let it linger behind and drag it through the zone). Time alone will tell.


Hi, Pete,

Larry

Last edited by ls7plus; 06-28-2017 at 05:41 PM.
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  #125  
Old 06-28-2017, 06:29 PM
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Originally Posted by packs View Post
Again, I have to disagree.

Jim Thome was 24 before his first full season.

Mariano Rivera was 25 and 26 before he recorded his first save.

Trevor Hoffman was 25 and missed induction by 1 percent last year.

Edgar Martinez was 27 when he entered his first full season. He got almost 60 % of the vote last year and has been climbing every year he's been eligible.

David Ortiz was 27 too before his first season on the Red Sox. A lot of people see him as a HOFer.

Ichiro was 27.

I don't think age really is an indicator.
How are all those guys' rookie cards doing these days? I know, I know, cards weren't "limited" back then. I am sure that an Edgar Martinez 1/1 blue, triple refractor, auto-patch would be worth hundreds of thousands.
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.

Last edited by orly57; 06-28-2017 at 06:37 PM.
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  #126  
Old 06-29-2017, 02:57 AM
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MattyC MattyC is online now
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"If" a rookie wins MVP and ROY in the same season, while setting the rookie HR record, and chasing a triple crown— that's sounds like one heck of a talent to me.

It would be one season, yes— yet every player starts with just one season.

If the needle/haystack is in reference to how some are looking at Judge, I would respectfully offer that instead of raining on the Aaron Judge parade, why not smile and enjoy a kid who is playing the right way, providing enormous entertainment and excitement— and creating positive energy for both baseball and the card hobby. Not to mention he's showcasing all the physical and mental skills a player needs to keep on raking.

There's a whole journey that is a player's career; fans and collectors can enjoy that journey without worrying what the player's rookie cards will be valued at when their careers are over. And if Mr. Judge can average 33.3 HRs from 25-40, while winning a WS or three along the way, for the biggest market team on earth, all the better. Time will tell. And for many collectors and collector-investors of current/modern players, watching that time play out in the present is something of value in and of itself.

There are movies and books that one has seen and read, and the outcome is known. Those can always be picked up and enjoyed again. Then there is the thrill of watching a story unfold, where you don't know the outcome. That's also enjoyable. These two types of entertainment are not mutually exclusive.

It seems that when we have great young players performing in the present, we're in such a rush to know or determine what their final career counting stats will be. I guess what I am talking about is living in and enjoying the moment. There was a time when Shoeless or Hornsby or Cobb or Ruth or Mantle were young, and people loved collecting them at that time; imagine someone coming along and going, "Man, that Mantle just got terribly injured and ripped his knee apart, and he K's a ton, and they already sent him down once, and I heard he almost quit, why are you wasting your time with him? He won't get 3000 hits. What's his rookie gonna be worth when his career's over?"

* I will add this, since the value topic was brought up: my Aaron Judge cards have thus far gained more value percentage-wise, and at a faster pace, than any vintage piece I've ever owned. That said, as a collector I love all my cards the same.

Last edited by MattyC; 06-29-2017 at 03:26 AM.
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  #127  
Old 06-29-2017, 08:24 AM
packs packs is offline
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Originally Posted by orly57 View Post
How are all those guys' rookie cards doing these days? I know, I know, cards weren't "limited" back then. I am sure that an Edgar Martinez 1/1 blue, triple refractor, auto-patch would be worth hundreds of thousands.
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.

My post was only in reference to another poster who said a guy who begins his career at 25 doesn't have much of a shot at making the HOF.

As far as "values" go, look at Manny Machado. He's hitting 225 right now. His auto rookie is still selling for a few hundred bucks a piece. So you can't really talk about Thome or Edgar Martinez's rookie cards in respect to the modern rookie card. They were manufactured in the millions vs thousands and then hundreds and then dozens. It's apples to oranges.
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  #128  
Old 06-29-2017, 10:12 AM
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Values are really fickle. Just for kicks I bought a couple of Bellingers and literally within a week before I even had them (a few HR later I guess) the same cards were selling for double and even more. Crazy.
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  #129  
Old 06-29-2017, 08:42 PM
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Of course the prices of current players will go up quicker than the images of the dead guys. They have one or two big weeks and their cards are buzzing on eBay like the NY stock exchange. The issue is whether or not that young player can sustain that pace over a long period of time. High-risk stocks always give higher yields than lower-risk blue-chips.
And Matty, no one is rooting against Aaron Judge (except Red Sox fans). His sample-size keeps growing and he keeps performing like a stud.
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  #130  
Old 06-30-2017, 08:23 AM
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...
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.
I know this is a tangent of a tangent, but why does anyone think this about Mariano? He was just a great closer when that position started becoming more integral in the game. He wasn't a once in a lifetime, he was just the first great closer. You look at Craig Kimbrel, a pitcher that was groomed for the position, and he is better than Mariano was.
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