Meltdown vs Crash in the cardboard hobby.....

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Posted By: Joe Pelaez

Jeff Lichtman, ever since you used the word meltdown over my choice of word crash in the hobby, I've given the choice of words, heavy thought.
I like your choice better!

The word crash is outdated.
It's harsh.
It's from 1929.
The picture of people jumping out of windows, just because their stocks took a dive, while they were suppose to continue their upward skyrocket affect into the stratosphere. ... money chasing money.

Jeff, meltdown is related more to 3 Mile Island, and Grenoble.
A crash is sudden, whereas a Meltdown is slower.

Meltdown it is.

Having said that, would you consider all that's going on about "The Card", as a volcano waiting to erupt, or is it part of the ongoing Meltdown?

Should people sell NOW?

Joe

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Posted By: Cobby33

The impact this book has on people who actually buy and sell in the hobby will have the same impact as any "expose." Little to none.

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Posted By: Jeff Prizner

yes, you should sell everything now! so.... uh, what do you have?

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Posted By: Cobby33

I have some nice 87 Topps commons, raw. Want 'em? I'll give you a good deal.

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Posted By: Jeff Prizner

87T? Nah... I can't afford vintage.

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Posted By: Honus

I think it will have little to no effect on the hobby. It may affect the value of that one card, but I doubt that since even with the photo, it is still inconclusive. Just interesting fodor for discussion among hobby geeks like us. If I had a PSA 5 or 6 Wagner, I would be feeling pretty good right now. Those may be the new holy grails. It would be interesting to put a PSA 6 and the PSA 8 up in a head to head auction.
JimB

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Posted By: boxingcardman

I think Grenoble is a ski resort...I guess it would have a meltdown in the spring...

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Posted By: Cobby33

Isn't it rumored that Richard Gere had an encounter with a Grenoble?

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

I think that any item eople spend money on in both a primary and secondary market is subject to hiccups and downturns, upticks and corrections. It's the nature of the beast - events happen that trigger people's emotions, or divert their attention, and that changes the nature of a market.

That said, our hobby is different from, say, automobiles, where a greater economic change can really impact the industry, or where cheaper new cars can hurt sales of used cars.

In our hobby, the primary and secondary markets are very different from one another - they feed off each other but they often have entirely different customers. In the primary market, nobody's going to stop buying the latest shiny stuff just because someone wrote a book about a card that's 100 years old.

In the secondary market, most people are driven by a sense of history and nostalgia. That doesn't go away just because someone wrote a book or trimmed a card.

People will always be nostalgic. Some people will be nostalgic enough that they spend money on baseball cards. Think "The Card" is going to keep Ted Z from finishing his Sovereign T206 set? Think it's going to keep Jay Wolt from chasing after T3s? Think it's going to keep Leon from searching for those last few card types? Is "The Card" going to keep Mack McCleary from discovering the curling Hall of Fame, and searching for curling cards? Or Ted from looking for Black Sox cards?

Hell, no it won't. Perhaps it will chase some investment-type collectors out of the hobby on a temporary basis, but that won't last long. Others will look at it as a great opportunity to jump in and buy great cards at a lower price while they're available, and eventually the prices will come right back up.

If there's one thing that's constant in life, it's baseball. Where did I hear that?

-Al

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Posted By: peter chao

Even as we speak there's probably some registry fool, I mean collector, who wants only the best and is trying to put together the ultimate registry set. He will spend whatever it takes to buy the PSA 8 holder and not care beans about the card inside. What's there to be concerned about...if this guy doesn't buy...there's plenty of real collectors that are willing to take out a mortgage in order to raise the funds to get one of the big 4.

Peter

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Posted By: Joe Pelaez

"Do you mean Chernobyl"


"I think Grenoble is a ski resort...I guess it would have a meltdown in the spring"...

*
*

Close, but no cigars.

When I wrote it, I kept saying to myself ... "Something's not right, something's not right.

To everyone else.

Bid high ... Buy high!

Your market is endless!

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Posted By: jay behrens

I only buy high if it's green and skunky

Jay

I love pinatas. You get to beat the crap of something and get rewarded with candy.

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Posted By: peter chao

It makes little sense to speak of a meltdown or a crash in the abstract, just pay attention to Mastro Auctions and their sales of T206 cards. If their sales are strong, then the Card had little impact. If their sales are weak...then maybe a drop in the market will be coming.

Peter

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

"Even as we speak there's probably some registry fool, I mean collector, who wants only the best and is trying to put together the ultimate registry set. He will spend whatever it takes to buy the PSA 8 holder and not care beans about the card inside."

Yeah, lots of fools out there who want to put together the best set possible. And I'm sure the registry fools don't care about the cards at all -- they just like collecting plastic with the number 8 stamped on it. Good thing there are a lot of geniuses like you Peter who want to collect the 2s-and 3s. I'm still trying to figure out, though, how can all these high grade registry fools afford these really expensive cards when they're so dumb? I guess they all have trust funds.

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Posted By: Joseph

The cardboard "meltdown" closely parallels the progression of events that followed the slabbing revolution in coin collecting. Many, of course, believe that grading/slabbing "ruined" the coin hobby. Because of the value added thingee, speculators pounced, made some money, some got out. Then all the cries about the subjective nature of grading. Sound familiar? Well, the coin hobby has not crashed, despite the cries of woe from the purists/old-timers. It has merely gone through a price correction.

Sit tight, everything will be fine (barring another terrorist attack which will slow down the cardboard progression--as well as some more important things.)

One more thing. I seem to recall that Alan Rosen might have left the coin business because of the crazy grading/slabbing that was ruining the hobby. And I also seem to recall his resistance to the introduction of same into baseball cards. Well, Mr. Mint ain't stupid.

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Posted By: peter chao

Is it time for a rumble between the slabheads and the purists. Actually, I miss those good old days in the playground.

Registry fools are simply people like Bruce McNall...obviously intelligent and capable but overextend themselves financially. Not all people interested in the PSA registry are registry fools, but I'm sure that you would agree that some are.

Peter

Edited: rubble has been changed to rumble, it was such a long time ago...I can't even spell it any more.

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Posted By: David Vargha

Is it time for a rubble between the slabheads and the purists. Actually, I miss those good old days in the playground.

Barney Rubble? Was he a card collector too? Methinks from your posts that you may have been on the wrong end of too many of those rumbles

DavidVargha@hotmail.com

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

David, I was going to let Peter's last post just sit there and breathe for a while. Like a fine piece of art, I find that his posts become more interesting if you come back later for another look.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Bruce McNall is on the registry?

-Al

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Posted By: peter chao

Hurry up guys...when is the rumble going to start...we need to get this moving before the moderator dude shows up.

Peter

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Posted By: leon

I just got back into my office. I almost responded to your comments yesterday Peter, but decided to do as Jeff does and just let them breathe for a while. Even though I am not a set registry guy I am pretty sure those guys like their cards just as much as we do. There is absolutely no reason to put folks down for enjoying the hobby the way they want to. It's all good... best regards

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Posted By: Joe Pelaez

It zounds like there's a meltdown happenning right before my eye's.

Bid High and hardy.

Don't miss the boat to Investor Heaven.

Everything is going just fine!

This message has been brought to you by the:

Cheney/Bush Administration.

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Posted By: peter chao

Just let the evidence sit there in front of the jury (Net54 members)...just let it breathe. That's a good trial tactic. I'm going to try it soon. Thanks.

Peter

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Posted By: MVSNYC

i just have one question...

Al- what's "eople"?



just kidding.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

It took me a few minutes to figure out what the heck you were talking about. But in re-reading my post, it appears that somebody took a "p."

-Al

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Posted By: JimB

"Registry fools are simply people like Bruce McNall."

To my knowledge Bruce McNall only [co-]owned one baseball card and that was before there was a Registry.
JimB


edited for grammar

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Posted By: Joe Pelaez

"In our hobby, the primary and secondary markets are very different from one another - they feed off each other but they often have entirely different customers. In the primary market, nobody's going to stop buying the latest shiny stuff just because someone wrote a book about a card that's 100 years old."

"In the secondary market, most people are driven by a sense of history and nostalgia. That doesn't go away just because someone wrote a book or trimmed a card."

*
*

Come on ... Primary Market?

Secondary Market?

It sounds more like MERRILL LYNCH.

Whatever happenned to the capital H in the word hOBBY?

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Posted By: peter chao

Joe,

Remember guys like you are the backbone of the Hobby, you guys will save us from a meltdown or a crash.

Peter

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Joe:

If I recall, you made the first comparison between the hobby and the market in an earlier post in this thread. Actually, it was the first post in the tread. Actually, it was the reason you started the thread in the first place.

-Al

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Posted By: Joe Pelaez

"Joe,

Remember guys like you are the backbone of the Hobby, you guys will save us from a meltdown or a crash.

Peter"

*
*

Pedrito, (Lil Peter) guys like me WANT the Meltdown.

We're hoping that a meltdown will get rid of some of you pseudo investors, of the turd kind.

If you think that collectors enjoy hearing a Markethead talk about the market, or a Slabhead asking the obligatory question as to what is a better slab? .............
Collectors automatically start to wonder ..............
Do any of these aliens, and immigrants from the Wall Street Journal, know anything about baseball, or baseball cards???

Pedrito, we know that you're an investor in training, so when you bid, bid High, but bring a net with you.........
What goes up, must come down...........

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Posted By: Joe Pelaez

What thread was that?
Do you have a link, a name title, or author?

I don't quite understand your question, or your point.

If I can see that thread, it might help.

Thanks.

Joe

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

That would be this very thread.

Scroll up to the top, to your opening post, complete with comments about crashes and meltdowns and parallels with 1929, with people jumping out of windows or whatever. It seems to me that you're comparing this hobby to the stock market, unless there was some other thing that happened in 1929 that caused people to jump out of windows.

Then you were kind enough to pull some quotes out of my post, a post I actually put some thought into in response to your opening question, and criticize my use of industry terms to describe things that are happening in the hobby.

My point was that you opened this thread with a discussion of markets and crashes and meltdowns, and then criticized me when I responded.

If you had taken the time to read my response instead of just picking out words to criticize, you would see that my point was that something like The Card might chase some investor-types out of the hobby, the hobby is built on people's love of nostalgia and the game, therefore I don't anticipate that a book would keep the passionate collectors who love the hobby away.

In fact, in reading through this thread it seems like the only person who has responded and made any reference to investing is YOU. Everyone else in this thread has referred to the hobby, implied that they planned on continuing to collect, etc. Your posts all refer to buying high, bidding high, investment opportunities, and the like. I understand that the investment angle of the hobby might be attractive to you, but a financial planner might advise you that there are better places for you to invest your money in order to meet your financial objectives. And while I won't criticize your reasons for collecting because I don't feel that's my place, I will continue to enjoy the hobby for my own reasons, most of which relate to the game, it's history, and my attraction to old pieces of cardboard.

Thanks,

-Al

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Posted By: Joe D.

unfortunately - I haven't had the opportunity to post or read much in the last few weeks.


Is Jeff (or others) suggesting that a meltdown is looming?


I miss one NYC dinner and a few weeks of N54...
and Meltdown and Chernobyl are discussed. What happened?

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Posted By: Sean

Joe,
We found out the PSA 8 Wagner is trimmed...SGC rejected it for a cross over.

RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!!

SDBH

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Posted By: Joe Pelaez

When Hanksta was twelve years old in 1990, tobacco-r-us was in the state of Texas, at the Texas National, trying to tell a dealer from the Mile High city that his Magie was a bummer.
I was at the National trying to educate some dealers as to how to defend themselves from alterations produced by Dr Koos.

Dear Hanksta,
Tobacco-r-us doesn't Run For the Hills ... He ATTACKS THE PROBLEM.

Investors, don't like to hear about problems.

If any of you have any questions about the above.
Just check it out with Mark Macrae ... Lew Lipset ... Bob Lemke.

Joe

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Posted By: Brian

Al,

Your thoughtful efforts to engage in meaningful dialogue is refreshing.

Brian

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Brian:

I apologize for my off-topic posts.

-Al

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Posted By: Joe Pelaez

Do you think that I'm from the Investor mind set???

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Joe, for clarity's sake:

You started this thread and asked a question. The question, prefaced by lots of talk of markets and crashes and such, was "Should people sell NOW?"

I responded to your question.

You criticized my response.

To try and understand why you would do that, I went back and re-read all your other posts in this thread. They all mention investing, slabbing, markets, and other financial terms. Mine mentioned nostalgia, the game, history, et cetera. Based on our posts in this thread, it seems that you and I collect for different reasons. Which is fine, of course.

You then asked me the question "Do you think that I'm from the investor mind set???"

And my answer is: based on the content of your posts in this thread, you certainly seem to have a preoccupation with investing in cards. And although I am not a financial planner, nor am I one to criticize how you choose to collect, I would caution you to consider investing in something more stable, because most of the rest of us consider this to be a hobby, and nothing quite as serious as an investment vehicle.

-Al

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Posted By: peter chao

Oh, oh, I don't think you should have said that...Joe is a Puritan...from a land far away. One of those that consider themselves a founding father of the HOBBY.

Peter

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Posted By: boxingcardman

seems to me that the only people who worry about a crash/correction/meltdown or whatever else you want to call it are the ones who plan to sell their collections/accumulations. If you are a lifelong collector and plan to have your cards pried from your cold, dead fingers, what's the difference if the "market" changes?

Joe, starting a thread from the premise that the sky is falling in the wake of so many successful auctions doesn't seem to make a lot of sense, empirically speaking.

Peter, we've had these "discussions" for years here; look at some older threads about the registry or slabbing. You really put your foot in it calling out registry participants. If they have the money to spend that way, let them. It only helps collectors of lower grade materials anyhow (less competition from those fellows who are chasing registry supremacy).

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Posted By: peter chao

Adam,

Thanks for the advice...but stop calming people down. I'm still waiting for the rumble.

Peter

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Posted By: Ed

edited due to anonymity....

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Posted By: sagard

...SGC rejected it for a cross over...

They probably have the 88/8 flip already printed up and are begging for the day when somebody will ask their opinion.

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Posted By: Josh Adams

What if you see both a light and a pot of gold? Can't a person be both?

It seems like Al just wants a little clarification from Joe's posts. They don't seem to make much sense.

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Posted By: leon

I don't care to enter this discussion at this point except to say that whomever you are "ED" you need to put your full name by your post. No anonymity in this thread please....thanks much....

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Posted By: Cobby33

There will always be those who hope for the worst, for their own personal gain. There are also those who ignore history and assume the best, eternally.

The rest of us acknowledge that we have absolutely zero control over what happens over a "market" and make our decisions based upon the here and now- and if we're fortunate enough to do so- speculate (emphasis of speculate) on the future, for our own benefit. If others (who are humble enough) have the big money to spend and make money down the line, I'm happy for them as well.

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Posted By: peter chao

This discussion is becoming too rational, where's the Puritan (dinosaur) when you need him.

Peter

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Posted By: Cobby33

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Posted By: Josh Adams