baseball's falling popularity and its affect on our hobby

[honus94566]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10...opular-mlb-2nd

I realize this has been discussed before ad nauseum... but I saw this article this morning and thought the stats were interesting:

"Nine percent fewer fans call baseball their favorite sport over the 30-year span, the biggest drop of any sport."

It'll be interesting to see if, as the years continue to pass, if MLB is able to regain any market share or if popularity will continue to wane.

This can't be good news as far as "demand" for baseball cards, even vintage, goes. I'm OK with it though. Cheaper prices just mean I'll be able to afford more cards.

[JasonL]

one of those endless debates since there is no easy to obtain correct answer.
Everything runs in cycles...baseball had the top spot until the early 1980s and then it was replaced by basketball and now it's football. I seriously doubt that hockey will be next, but at some point, cultural preferences may very well return to baseball...but pretty tuff to say when,...

[z28jd]

I think the problem with comparing baseball and football is that their seasons barely overlap, so you're almost never forced to pick one over the other. Also, the % may go down, but the population during that time has risen from 237mil to 316mil so you're taking from a much large group.

The key numbers are the revenue and they set a record last year with over $8 billion, up from $7.5 B the year before and $7 B in 2011, so there is a steady growth.

Attendance in 2013 was just under the all-time high and the ten best years ever for attendance all happened in the last ten years.

Minor league baseball has been just as strong, with nine straight years over 41 million fans and they don't even include attendance from any of the rookie league teams(GCL/AZL/VSL/DSL).

[MyGuyTy]

Tough to predict where this hobby is headed, however I will say one thing, it's a pretty safe bet that 25-30 years from now when this new generation is the driving force behind our economy nobody will be forking over $10,000 for a simple drum T206 card or "ghost" or "printing error". Guys that are in their late 30's to early 50's right now, who are the ones driving the prices, will either be retired and on a budget or dead. Baseball card "collecting" as a hobby is completely non-existent with today's kids. These are same kids who won't give a crap about collecting "vintage" cards 25-30 years from now and certainly won't be paying 10's of thousands of dollars for them.

You wanna know what will be the hot "collector" items of the next generation bringing ridiculous prices? Vintage video game consoles and 90's era Japanese sports cars. Just like we grew up with the hot item being baseball cards, those items that I mentioned will be what kids "collect" when they hit their 30's.

[EvilKing00]

Although im a HUGE football fan, If I had to choose my favorite, it would be baseball.

Football is extremely popular, and will probably continue to be the #1 sport in the US, due to many reasons. Beside it being a great sport, they have all the degenerate gamblers watching. Some guys I know barely know whos on what team, but they always know the spread.

Its also a lot less time consuming, not talking about the length of a game, but rather, there are only 16 games, Usually on a sunday when most people are off work.

As far as the hobby. Well, I don't know too many people who collect football cards, or at least more football than baseball. As for me, I have 3 football cards, Jerry Rice rookie, Payton Manning Rookie and emit smith rookie. As for baseball cards I have no clue how many I have many thousand would be my best guess.

I hardly ever watch baseball and am a completely casual fan of today's game, yet I love collecting baseball cards...particularly vintage cards. Yesterdays stars are iconic and in my mind largely unrelated to modern baseball. Whether our hobby will prosper or decline over the next couple generations is definitely debatable but I think it will more related to the decline of individuals collecting cards than a decline in the interest in modern baseball.

I think the iconic names in the hobby will probably persevere to a great extent, but will the next generation collector have the interest, and maybe more importantly the patience, to obtain T206 commons to try and complete the set?

[CW]

Originally Posted by z28jd

I think the problem with comparing baseball and football is that their seasons barely overlap, so you're almost never forced to pick one over the other. Also, the % may go down, but the population during that time has risen from 237mil to 316mil so you're taking from a much large group.

The key numbers are the revenue and they set a record last year with over $8 billion, up from $7.5 B the year before and $7 B in 2011, so there is a steady growth.

Attendance in 2013 was just under the all-time high and the ten best years ever for attendance all happened in the last ten years.

Minor league baseball has been just as strong, with nine straight years over 41 million fans and they don't even include attendance from any of the rookie league teams(GCL/AZL/VSL/DSL).

All good points. Adding to that, baseball as a global sport is also growing. Here in America we naturally tend to think we're the center of the universe, but baseball is very popular in other countries.

Now, how that affects our hobby is uncertain, as I don't think you'll find too many thirtysomethings in third world countries buying up Mickey Mantle rookie cards, unfortunately.

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

I am a HUGE Minnesota Vikings fan. My collection of Vikings memorabilia is much more significant than my baseball collection. That being said I find myself moving more towards baseball as I get older.

I think this is in part because I see football players my age, 27, already breaking down. Furthermore, the research about concussions has taken away some of the luster for me. I find myself asking if I would my kids to play football and I don't know. On the other hand I can see myself sharing baseball with them. It is an easy game to understand, the games are cheaper than the NFL and there is nothing quite like a game of catch.

As a collector I am more drawn to baseball because of the deep history of the hobby. It is cool to look at cards that are over 100 years old. It amazes me how much the game has stayed the same over the years. I think football will not be the same game in 20 years. However, I am not sure baseball will be either.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

Tough to predict where this hobby is headed, however I will say one thing, it's a pretty safe bet that 25-30 years from now when this new generation is the driving force behind our economy nobody will be forking over $10,000 for a simple drum T206 card or "ghost" or "printing error".

Really? I think the same thing was said 20+ years ago about the same cards just with different prices.

The thing I think people forget on pre-war is a lot of people who collect this niche are doing so for varied reasons. Many of which are scholarly and collection checklist driven not so much die hard baseball fans. How many of us remember seeing the pre-war players play or are reliving our youth thru pre-war cards? I myself don't even follow modern sports.

There have always been collectors, there will always be collectors. Because of this collectors will accumulate collections and in doing so will want to obtain scarce, tough and even rare items for said collections and extreme prices will be paid in the process.

To announce that 25 years from now nobody will value rarities or scarce items is a silly concept. In terms of the mentioned examples T206 “Ghosts” and scarcer advertising backs. I agree the printing errors have certainly taken a new life from say 20 years ago.

I chalk this up to even more people today collecting this particular set wanting to own something unique. I also chalk it up to folks who have gone as far as they can with the T206 and are running out of things to collect. Meaning they have the set, they have the backs now they need something else to fill the void. When you add in a limited supply of printing errors to this mix of people you see today’s prices. This is a very good thing means there is a healthy amount of collectors on this issue.

In regards to the T206 scarcer brand backs they have always been more expensive or at least for the past 30+ years. Have prices jumped to more dramatic levels? Yes but once again more people and a limited supply along with a few key players and you have your prices. Could prices drop sure but they will drop to an all-time new hobby avg. Example not long ago you could get a Drum for say $1500 and that wasn’t long ago say 5-6 years ago. Even if they drop from 10k for the same card now they will drop to a higher number than ever before due to new historical prices being set within the collecting market. That’s just the nature of any hobby.

To answer the OP’s question I don’t think baseballs popularity will play a huge role in killing the niche we live in. However it will and has affected the modern market which is a gateway often to our niche and overtime could slim down new arrivals but that will take time.

We do have nostalgia on our side. No matter how boring modern baseball gets people will always look fondly upon the romantic version of our Nation’s past and look to own a part of that past.

Cheers,

John

[Cardboard Junkie]

Tulip Bulbs

[ValKehl]

I pretty much agree with everything Wonka John said. As I see it, our hobby will flourish as long as there are both lotsa baseball enthusiasts and lotsa people born with the "collector gene" - in other words, a very long time!
Val

[mrvster]

Wonka ! That was perfectly stated!

Exactly what Mr. Wonka said......

I completely disagree with MyguyTy(sorry in all due respect)......

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Really? I think the same thing was said 20+ years ago about the same cards just with different prices.

That's my whole point......20 years ago the hobby of baseball card collecting was enormous! Every kid was collecting, and those kids back then are in their 30's and 40's today diving up prices. Like I said, kids today who WILL be the ones with all the disposable income in 30 years won't be looking at the hobby like you or I am RIGHT NOW because this hobby of collecting and for the most part baseball in general is not what interests kids in the teens and early 20's.

The problem right now is simple, those of us today in our late 30's to early 50's (me included) with the money to overpay, don't wanna hear that our $10,000 overbid for a simple T206 Drum or Uzit or "Ghost" or "Freak" or "Misprint" or what ever cool name we wanna come up with, will not be worth ANYWHERE near what we're paying now in 25-30 years. I always try to be smart and look ahead to the future of my money, but sometimes a card I "need" for my collection makes me lose focus of the bigger picture, lol. This is very much chess not checkers with the future of this hobby. It truly is a niche hobby, and "niche" hobbies are the first to expire when the new generation doesn't have any interest what so ever with this "niche". I have 3 sons spread out over different grades up to 8th grade...........and not a single kid I've ever come across at their schools has any interest in collecting baseball cards. I asked all 3 of my sons and they've told me nobody is school collects baseball cards anymore. Go into any Target or Wally World and try to find baseball cards....they're all sitting on a small shelf in a small distant area of the store collecting dust. That's the future of this hobby.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by mrvster

Wonka ! That was perfectly stated!

Exactly what Mr. Wonka said......

I completely disagree with MyguyTy(sorry in all due respect)......

No disrespect at all, it's your opinion, you can disagree any time. However statistics among today's youth show what I've been saying. I would be an optimist too if I had hundreds of thousands in vintage cards in a collection hoping to recoup the money when I'm at retirement age. However smart money is on the opposite unfortunately.

[z28jd]

There are some segments of this hobby, where it takes just two people to drive prices crazy, so it is impossible to guess future prices and what will be popular. I've seen prices of certain teams in the Old Judge set take off because a couple people both decided they wanted them at the same time and I've seen other teams level off/drop when one people decided to stop collecting and sell their cards.

If some multi-millionaire decides tomorrow he wants every T206 with an EPDG back, then the market will take off on them. You can't predict down the line if that will happen or not.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by z28jd

You can't predict down the line if that will happen or not.

We used to think the same thing about weather....

What multi millionaires find interesting today most likely won't be same things multi millionaires in 30 years find interesting. Just like in the 40's to the 70's, high end vintage baseball card "collectors" were few and far between, which explains why nobody was paying silly prices for old cardboard. The 80's came and a new generation was born. 30 years from now a whole new generation of uninterested baseball/baseball card people will be the overwhelming majority.

[wonkaticket]

Sorry “MyGuyTy” but I disagree. It also has nothing to do with what I may or may not have overpaid for either as there are anomalies in every hobby. Every collector has items he has too much in that’s called collecting.

My point above is that 20 years ago records were set and folks said that is silly, then 10 years ago folks said that is silly, then 5 years ago….and so on and so on…..

As I said above this hobby is not driven by modern shiny trading card business. That business is dead and dying even the retail space dedicated to such is being cut. Yet our hobby is having record highs and growth, am I to believe this is all driven by 50 year old men with cash to burn? No there is young blood in this hobby I’m 38 not young but not a baby boomer. There are even younger collectors here spending big money.

This whole nobody collects cards at high school so we are all doomed is just silly. Art and music programs are almost dead in schools also but we still have fine art collecting and rock stars. Just because it’s not a Leave it to Beaver episode on every corner in America and kids aren’t out playing stick ball by the fire hydrants and flipping cards against the walls does not mean our hobby is dead. The pre-war section has had very little drive from the baby boomers looking to relive what mom tossed out.

If anything the hobby has become more sophisticated and because of the digital age we live in even more obscure avenues of card collecting have emerged, and even more people can be exposed to the hobby.

Cheers,

John

Edited to add “MyTyGuy” your view of the people who drive our hobby is very narrow not everyone who collects any type of antiques has to have started that journey as a kid, nor do they have to have an affinity for the subject matter they collect either. Also the hobby is not driven solely by multi-millionaires either. Not every sale is a record sale….lots of sub $100 pre-war cards are sold to normal people every day.

[DerekMichael]

It is just my opinion, but based on MANY people whom I have actually spoken to in person, a lot of people feel they were driven away from the hobby, and I am not referring to Net54 board members.

Pretty much everyone I know constantly asks me questions about my card collecting, and a common theme which I have sadly come across during conversations on MANY different occasions with MANY different people is the following:

"I spent thousands and thousands of dollars in the 80's and 90's on new cards, and was told by many dealers that they were a terrific investment, and now they are literally worthless and I cannot give them away." ... or something along those lines.

I can recall going to card shops when I was younger, and I would hear dealers saying things to their customers like: "This Mark McGwire-Olympic rookie card (85 Topps) is only going to sky rocket in value, and I will give it to you for only $150 because it has (x) wrong with it etc.".

So, many of these people, when telling their story, which is usually more or less the exact same story, clearly feel hurt by the look in their eyes. Others tell me they have tried to resell the cards back to the very dealers they bought them from, only to be laughed at and offered pennies on the dollar. They do not get happy when they think of baseball cards. They think of a bunch of sleeze bags trying to rip them off.

I have heard the same story from different people over, and over, and over, and over, and it makes me angry, because so many people were ripped off by crooks in this hobby, they feel they can never return, or when they do return, they do so with great reservation, and are always looking over their shoulder.

For any dealer to ever have claimed that 80's or 90's were a great investment means either 1.) They were fools and actually bought into the absurdity, or 2.) They knew exactly what they were doing and that these cards were never, ever going to be worth anything, and that most likely, because of the massive amounts produced, which were obviously treated as a "collectible" from the day they hit the open market (the main problem with the logic of them maturing in value), were only going to collapse in the worst kind of way. They just did not care and were more than willing to keep lining their pockets while they ripped off the masses.

Naturally, their kids will not be getting that "warm and fuzzy" feeling when they think about baseball cards.

Again, these are not Net54 people I am talking about. They are the other hard working people whose attention and interests have gone a very different direction over the years, for what I consider to be very obvious and justified reasons.

Derek Hogue

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

That's my whole point......20 years ago the hobby of baseball card collecting was enormous! Every kid was collecting, and those kids back then are in their 30's and 40's today diving up prices. Like I said, kids today who WILL be the ones with all the disposable income in 30 years won't be looking at the hobby like you or I am RIGHT NOW because this hobby of collecting and for the most part baseball in general is not what interests kids in the teens and early 20's.

The problem right now is simple, those of us today in our late 30's to early 50's (me included) with the money to overpay, don't wanna hear that our $10,000 overbid for a simple T206 Drum or Uzit or "Ghost" or "Freak" or "Misprint" or what ever cool name we wanna come up with, will not be worth ANYWHERE near what we're paying now in 25-30 years. I always try to be smart and look ahead to the future of my money, but sometimes a card I "need" for my collection makes me lose focus of the bigger picture, lol. This is very much chess not checkers with the future of this hobby. It truly is a niche hobby, and "niche" hobbies are the first to expire when the new generation doesn't have any interest what so ever with this "niche". I have 3 sons spread out over different grades up to 8th grade...........and not a single kid I've ever come across at their schools has any interest in collecting baseball cards. I asked all 3 of my sons and they've told me nobody is school collects baseball cards anymore. Go into any Target or Wally World and try to find baseball cards....they're all sitting on a small shelf in a small distant area of the store collecting dust. That's the future of this hobby.

Keep in mind, many of us grew up in the 80's and 90's and took an absolute pounding spending our lunch money hoarding Will Clark, Bo Jackson, Frank Thomas, and Ken Griffey Jr. RC's and look how that turned out for us. Yet here we are back at it again, but this time a little wiser and with a little more money in our pockets.

There is something uniquely American about collecting baseball cards, and I'm cautiously optimistic that next generation collectors will simply be late bloomers. To be honest collecting vintage/pre-war cards is much simpler than collecting modern cards where every player has an infinite number of "RC's" and an equally ridiculous number of insert cards amongst the vast array of product. In vintage it's easy. A Hank Aaron RC is his '54 Topps, its finite, its simple and I think that's what a lot of people enjoy about vintage cards and what will get next generation's collector into the hobby.

Having said this, it would be extremely helpful if the hobby was given a new jolt of energy. I personally think a reality show like 'American Pickers' focused on sportscards and memorabilia could do wonders in generating interest and new collectors moving forward.

[EvilKing00]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Really? I think the same thing was said 20+ years ago about the same cards just with different prices.

The thing I think people forget on pre-war is a lot of people who collect this niche are doing so for varied reasons. Many of which are scholarly and collection checklist driven not so much die hard baseball fans. How many of us remember seeing the pre-war players play or are reliving our youth thru pre-war cards? I myself don't even follow modern sports.

There have always been collectors, there will always be collectors. Because of this collectors will accumulate collections and in doing so will want to obtain scarce, tough and even rare items for said collections and extreme prices will be paid in the process.

To announce that 25 years from now nobody will value rarities or scarce items is a silly concept. In terms of the mentioned examples T206 “Ghosts” and scarcer advertising backs. I agree the printing errors have certainly taken a new life from say 20 years ago.

I chalk this up to even more people today collecting this particular set wanting to own something unique. I also chalk it up to folks who have gone as far as they can with the T206 and are running out of things to collect. Meaning they have the set, they have the backs now they need something else to fill the void. When you add in a limited supply of printing errors to this mix of people you see today’s prices. This is a very good thing means there is a healthy amount of collectors on this issue.

In regards to the T206 scarcer brand backs they have always been more expensive or at least for the past 30+ years. Have prices jumped to more dramatic levels? Yes but once again more people and a limited supply along with a few key players and you have your prices. Could prices drop sure but they will drop to an all-time new hobby avg. Example not long ago you could get a Drum for say $1500 and that wasn’t long ago say 5-6 years ago. Even if they drop from 10k for the same card now they will drop to a higher number than ever before due to new historical prices being set within the collecting market. That’s just the nature of any hobby.

To answer the OP’s question I don’t think baseballs popularity will play a huge role in killing the niche we live in. However it will and has affected the modern market which is a gateway often to our niche and overtime could slim down new arrivals but that will take time.

We do have nostalgia on our side. No matter how boring modern baseball gets people will always look fondly upon the romantic version of our Nation’s past and look to own a part of that past.

Cheers,

John

"There have always been collectors, there will always be collectors. Because of this collectors will accumulate collections"

Great Line and so true!

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Sorry “MyGuyTy” but I disagree. It also has nothing to do with what I may or may not have overpaid for either as there are anomalies in every hobby. Every collector has items he has too much in that’s called collecting.

My point above is that 20 years ago records were set and folks said that is silly, then 10 years ago folks said that is silly, then 5 years ago….and so on and so on…..

As I said above this hobby is not driven by modern shiny trading card business. That business is dead and dying even the retail space dedicated to such is being cut. Yet our hobby is having record highs and growth, am I to believe this is all driven by 50 year old men with cash to burn? No there is young blood in this hobby I’m 38 not young but not a baby boomer. There are even younger collectors here spending big money.

This whole nobody collects cards at high school so we are all doomed is just silly. Art and music programs are almost dead in schools also but we still have fine art collecting and rock stars. Just because it’s not a Leave it to Beaver episode on every corner in America and kids aren’t out playing stick ball by the fire hydrants and flipping cards against the walls does not mean our hobby is dead. The pre-war section has had very little drive from the baby boomers looking to relive what mom tossed out.

If anything the hobby has become more sophisticated and because of the digital age we live in even more obscure avenues of card collecting have emerged, and even more people can be exposed to the hobby.

Cheers,

John

Edited to add “MyTyGuy” your view of the people who drive our hobby is very narrow not everyone who collects any type of antiques has to have started that journey as a kid, nor do they have to have an affinity for the subject matter they collect either. Also the hobby is not driven solely by multi-millionaires either. Not every sale is a record sale….lots of sub $100 pre-war cards are sold to normal people every day.

John for your sake, my sake and the sake of everyone on this board who loves thus hobby, I hope you're right. However I remain skeptical as interest baseball and the cards themselves continues to fade with every passing year amongst the next generation of "money".

Also to add, the casual "sophisticated" collector of anything vintage is SUCH a small minority in the larger scope. The majority of collectors have emotional ties to what they're collecting and handing out a king's ransom for. Just because I enjoy vintage cards, doesn't mean I'll go out and drop $10,000 on a vase from the 1800's. Why do you think the 80's just happened to be the start of the baseball card collecting explosion? Because that was the first generation of 30 something year olds who remember the golden age of being a kid in the 50's and 60's when the baseball card with bubble gum craze officially kicked into a whole different level. That money in the 80's and 90's is still what's hanging on to the hobby prices today......30 years from now, new money takes over with new "interests" and new "hobbies" while the small demographic of men in their 30's and 40's right now who enjoy paying thousands upon thousands for these cards, will most likely be dead and having their collections dispersed.

[EvilKing00]

Having said this, it would be extremely helpful if the hobby was given a new jolt of energy. I personally think a reality show like 'American Pickers' focused on sportscards and memorabilia could do wonders in generating interest and new collectors moving forward.

that sure would be cool, id deff watch

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

John for your sake, my sake and the sake of everyone on this board who loves thus hobby, I hope you're right. However I remain skeptical as interest baseball and the cards themselves continues to fade with every passing year amongst the next generation of "money".

I understand why you are skeptical, but would like to add that the flooding of the market of next generation selling off their inherited collections should probably be of equal or greater concern. This is one of the first generations of young American's who are not better off than their parents and this is one of my biggest concerns moving forward.

[MyGuyTy]

Let's not forget either, guys in the 60's, 70's and 80's NEVER thought stamp collecting would disappear because it was so popular for so many decades........yeah we see where that one ended up.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

John for your sake, my sake and the sake of everyone on this board who loves thus hobby, I hope you're right. However I remain skeptical as interest baseball and the cards themselves continues to fade with every passing year amongst the next generation of "money".

If you really feel that way I understand and respect your thoughts, but if that is 100% how you feel I would look to sell now. For me I'll hang in a bit longer as I don't feel the sky is falling just yet....

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by Gobucsmagic74

I understand why you are skeptical, but would like to add that the flooding of the market of next generation selling off their inherited collections should probably be of equal or greater concern. This is one of the first generations of young American's who are not better off than their parents and this is one of my biggest concerns moving forward.

That's exactly what I'm talking about, it will be a combination of an overall lack of interest and flooded market of vintage cards. Supply will be plenty and demand is projecting to be at an all time low.......Recipe for a complete crash of values.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

If you really feel that way I understand and respect your thoughts, but if that is 100% how you feel I would look to sell now. For me I'll hang in a bit longer as I don't feel the sky is falling just yet....

"Yet"........ Key word in your entire statement

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by DerekMichael

I can recall going to card shops when I was younger, and I would hear dealers saying things to their customers like: "This Mark McGwire-Olympic rookie card (85 Topps) is only going to sky rocket in value, and I will give it to you for only $150 because it has (x) wrong with it etc.".

So, many of these people, when telling their story, which is usually more or less the exact same story, clearly feel hurt by the look in their eyes. Others tell me they have tried to resell the cards back to the very dealers they bought them from, only to be laughed at and offered pennies on the dollar. They do not get happy when they think of baseball cards. They think of a bunch of sleeze bags trying to rip them off.

I think the above is far more of a problem for the hobby going forward than a general lack of interest in baseball. Obviously, there are a lot of honest and ethical people involved with the hobby. But IMO the general perception (and I don't think this perception is wrong) is that card collecting is filled with scammers and crooks looking to rip people off.

Leon and the posters on here do a great service to the hobby by exposing such scams, but the amount of crooks in the hobby seems never-ending.

[KCRfan1]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

Let's not forget either, guys in the 60's, 70's and 80's NEVER thought stamp collecting would disappear because it was so popular for so many decades........yeah we see where that one ended up.

I would never make the comparison of stamp collecting to card collecting. For most of us, we remember going to a convenience store or card shop to buy packs after we saved our allowance. We would organize our cards by teams, or numberically, and trade with other kids in the neighborhood. We learned to study numbers by looking at the stats on the backs of cards, and likely helped with our math in school. We have those childhood memories that we feel everytime we get a new card for our collection. Cards have images of players we imitated when we played the game. Those players were our heros, and when we played we were those " heros ". My grandmother collected stamps, and all I saw from stamps were images and colors. Stamps were not on tv, no characters, nothing to connect me with the stamp itsself. No hero's, no rivalries, no life, no nothing to keep the hobby alive. Comparing stamps to cards is a poor analogy in my opinion, but that's all it is, my opinion.

[EvilKing00]

Speaking for myself, someone who collected cards since I was a kid in the 80's and 90's. If someone asked me when I was 18-29 if I was interested in collecting pre-war cards I would flat out say no. I had all to do, in finishing school, working a full time job, paying my rent and expenses, going out to bars and hanging out with girlfriends. And on the occasion pick my self up a few maddux and Griffey rookie cards, and throw then im my shoe box.

But as I got older, got married, had a kid, settled down, make more money I have time for a true hobby, cause im not distracted by being a young crazy "kid".

Collectors will allways be around, and always want the, old or older stuff. Weather its furnature, cars, advertising or baseball cards. It just takes the collector some time to mature, in my case.

Im 39 and have only just begun collecting, babe ruth and t205 cards last year. Not because I had no interest.... I just didn't have the funds or the time.

What the heck else is a 40 plus guy gonna do with his pocket money?

[thehoodedcoder]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

You wanna know what will be the hot "collector" items of the next generation bringing ridiculous prices? Vintage video game consoles and 90's era Japanese sports cars. Just like we grew up with the hot item being baseball cards, those items that I mentioned will be what kids "collect" when they hit their 30's.

i think about this alot. i have two atari 400s and some pretty rare games from what i can see. i think one is even a proto type. its on a tape casette.

there is a lot of room out there in this market. its tough to even find a vintage game price guide, though they do exist.

sometimes i feel like i should get into it a little bit because i think over the long haul the prices will grow and it could be a good investment.

kevin

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by thehoodedcoder

i think about this alot. i have two atari 400s and some pretty rare games from what i can see. i think one is even a proto type. its on a tape casette.

there is a lot of room out there in this market. its tough to even find a vintage game price guide, though they do exist.

sometimes i feel like i should get into it a little bit because i think over the long haul the prices will grow and it could be a good investment.

kevin

I don't really have much interest in them, but my brother in law has already amassed around 15-20 vintage game consoles from the late 70's to early 90's. Atari, commodore, Telstar, Bally, intellivision, original Sega, original Nintendo, turbographx, CD-i, Neo Geo etc. and he continues to get ridiculous offers well into the thousands from collectors to buy his old systems. He knows this is just the beginning of the vintage console hobby so he's not selling anytime soon.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

That's exactly what I'm talking about, it will be a combination of an overall lack of interest and flooded market of vintage cards. Supply will be plenty and demand is projecting to be at an all time low.......Recipe for a complete crash of values.

The amount of vintage cards will never be considered plenty. They aren't making any, so the population will only go down as time passes. Cards are lost to attrition, whether it's fire, natural disasters, mistakenly thrown out, whatever.

We have all seen parts of the market go up or down based on just one extra person collecting a particular set or player. That just proves how rare they are overall and there have been some huge collections put on the market, such as Lionel Carter's or the large find of Drum backs. They did nothing negative to the market value of similar cards.

The are plenty of people that would gladly embrace prices dropping because they are "collectors" and it's more for them, so those people will eat up any so called flood of cards. Then when someone wants them again, the prices will go up. There are always going to be people lying in wait for that flood of cards so they can do what they do, collect.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by z28jd

There are always going to be people lying in wait for that flood of cards so they can do what they do, collect.

So there's gonna be 70-90 years old lying in wait to drop $15,000 on rare back or rare "print error" T206 in 30 years? I highly doubt it. Nor will men who will be in their 30's and 40's at that time with the real disposable income. New money, new interests, new hobbies, new ways of thinking.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by z28jd

The amount of vintage cards will never be considered plenty. They aren't making any, so the population will only go down as time passes. Cards are lost to attrition, whether it's fire, natural disasters, mistakenly thrown out, whatever.

We have all seen parts of the market go up or down based on just one extra person collecting a particular set or player. That just proves how rare they are overall and there have been some huge collections put on the market, such as Lionel Carter's or the large find of Drum backs. They did nothing negative to the market value of similar cards.

The are plenty of people that would gladly embrace prices dropping because they are "collectors" and it's more for them, so those people will eat up any so called flood of cards. Then when someone wants them again, the prices will go up. There are always going to be people lying in wait for that flood of cards so they can do what they do, collect.

Just because something is perceived as "rare" doesn't mean it's automatically so "valuable" beyond belief. There are TONS are vintage items and artifacts (in which only a handful exist) with values under a couple hundred bucks. Why? Because there's no true demand for these particular items or the market for them has completely disappeared.

[William Todd]

My feeling on this subject is somewhat middle of the road to this discussion. As a career investment person, I know that trends come and go. The rare baseball cards and stamps and art will hold their value, but many times along the long term span of time they can become overpriced. I am concerned that many of the high grade examples of cards, like the Wagner, may have been altered. I don't know how this will affect their value over time. In the last five years I have moved my collecting focus to collecting middle grade, somewhat rare, reasonably priced cards, all pre WWI. I enjoy collecting, I love the cards, but not overpaying for them.

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

I think it is interesting that nobody else considered the effect that the medical data may have on the future of pro football.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by DerekMichael

It is just my opinion, but based on MANY people whom I have actually spoken to in person, a lot of people feel they were driven away from the hobby, and I am not referring to Net54 board members.

Pretty much everyone I know constantly asks me questions about my card collecting, and a common theme which I have sadly come across during conversations on MANY different occasions with MANY different people is the following:

"I spent thousands and thousands of dollars in the 80's and 90's on new cards, and was told by many dealers that they were a terrific investment, and now they are literally worthless and I cannot give them away." ... or something along those lines.

I can recall going to card shops when I was younger, and I would hear dealers saying things to their customers like: "This Mark McGwire-Olympic rookie card (85 Topps) is only going to sky rocket in value, and I will give it to you for only $150 because it has (x) wrong with it etc.".

So, many of these people, when telling their story, which is usually more or less the exact same story, clearly feel hurt by the look in their eyes. Others tell me they have tried to resell the cards back to the very dealers they bought them from, only to be laughed at and offered pennies on the dollar. They do not get happy when they think of baseball cards. They think of a bunch of sleeze bags trying to rip them off.

I have heard the same story from different people over, and over, and over, and over, and it makes me angry, because so many people were ripped off by crooks in this hobby, they feel they can never return, or when they do return, they do so with great reservation, and are always looking over their shoulder.

For any dealer to ever have claimed that 80's or 90's were a great investment means either 1.) They were fools and actually bought into the absurdity, or 2.) They knew exactly what they were doing and that these cards were never, ever going to be worth anything, and that most likely, because of the massive amounts produced, which were obviously treated as a "collectible" from the day they hit the open market (the main problem with the logic of them maturing in value), were only going to collapse in the worst kind of way. They just did not care and were more than willing to keep lining their pockets while they ripped off the masses.

Naturally, their kids will not be getting that "warm and fuzzy" feeling when they think about baseball cards.

Again, these are not Net54 people I am talking about. They are the other hard working people whose attention and interests have gone a very different direction over the years, for what I consider to be very obvious and justified reasons.

Derek Hogue

This overpaying and ending up with worthless rookie cards did not stop in the 90's. It is has been going strong since the mid 80's when I started and is still going strong now. Just look at the crazy prices people are paying for Puig and Harper cards. There is absolutely no way those cards will be worth 10% of what they are selling for now in a few years and then those collectors will leave the hobby feeling robbed also. I have seen this countless times in the last 25+ years.

[mrvster]

Ty Guy= they said the same thing about Wagner

30 years ago .... HA!!

btw....
the new shiny collectors, rookies will do what we did, collect T206...

I think we have a lot of T206 envy on board

[steve B]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

Let's not forget either, guys in the 60's, 70's and 80's NEVER thought stamp collecting would disappear because it was so popular for so many decades........yeah we see where that one ended up.

Decades?! Try well over a century.

And collecting stamps is hardly dead, although it is trending older for a number of reasons.

I've collected a lot of things at various levels since I was around 5 or 6.
ALL of them had dealers and some following. And ALL of them had the same gloomy predictions. For some it sort of happened, for some it really hasn't.

I started with coins and stamps.
A couple of those Whitman blue coin folders, a starter stamp album, a bag of cheap stamps and a bit of stuff from Dads collection after a couple years.
I also collected rocks and minerals. And seashells, and old bottles and telephone/telegraph insulators.

All of those collecting areas are still being collected.
Coins has/had the same aging problems, but the state quarters added some interest from a younger crowd.
Stamps has an aging problem, but the APS is doing a pretty good job of bringing in new collectors. So is USPS, but what they do doesn't work as well as the state quarters.
Old bottles has been pretty static pricewise, and various things have come and gone as fads. It's in a category of hobbies where there really aren't "sets", so a collector has to accept that there won't be any real completion.
Insulators was "big" for a time, but suffered from a lack of supply. There's maybe 20-30 really common ones and after that it gets challenging. One of the antique places I go to has a dealer. His prices are a bit high seeming for the nice stuff.
I've been a bit out of touch on shells. I'm not much of a beach person because of the traffic and crowds. But it was always a small hobby. I think CITES has probably kept it small. Hard to know if the species is common, and if not it may be protected making dealing in the shells illegal (Even if they're found on a beach)
Rocks and minerals is also small, but last I checked was doing fine. Enough interest to support great prices for the spectacular stuff, and availability of cheaper stuff. I used to hunt my own, but a lot of the places I went as a kid are closed to the public now.

I've continued collecting stamps and coins, being much more active with stamps. The stuff I specialize in now is oddly the stuff I disliked for years.

Along the way I've been into other hobbies.
Collecting old racing bicycles and others. - The stuff I really like has become too expensive for me, Balloon tire bikes were the big thing for a time, as were stingrays. Both have peaked and fallen back a bit. But the really great stuff is still doing fine. Early BMX is hot right now, and prices seem totally insane to me.

Old films 16 and 8mm. Another odd hobby, and another one that suffers from a lack of supply. But the "good" stuff is still doing well even if a DVD costs far less than an original film. A "common" feature film in 16mm might have 10-25 copies in existence. Yes, an entire hobby where the common stuff is more rare than the Wagner.

Collecting old pneumatic or hydraulic tools. Heavy and miserable to ship. Often really rare, and also filthy and beaten to death. Fortunately also often cheap. (I never met anyone else that collected that stuff except as a sideline to old cars.)

Old car stuff
Old magazines and other ephemera
Beer cans
Hotwheels and other little cars
Action figures
Model railroads
Plus a bunch of random collectible items. Old radios, wringer washing machine, 50's television,

And yes, I have "some" old videogame consoles and games and some early home computers. Both of those are developing hobbies with a lot of upside. The videogames more than the computers since the computers are big and require a fair amount of technical skill to keep them running. That makes it a hobby that isn't for everyone.

The internet has changed every hobby. The biggest thing has been that now it's obvious what's actually uncommon and what's available everywhere.
I can't really think of any hobby I've heard of that's entirely gone.

Steve B

[MyGuyTy]

We'll if anything it's been a great topic to ponder today

[teetwoohsix]

Lot's of great points brought up in this thread, and it's been fun to read.

I felt Wonka's first post pretty much summed up the way I view things, as far as this topic goes.

I know from my own experience, if I were collecting things from my high school days, it would be more along the lines of concert shirts, heavy metal on vinyl, bongs, and guitars But seriously-

In grade school, I collected the current Topps cards-could have cared less about condition. My small collection was left behind during a move across the country, and I (entering junior high) became focused on girls Fast forward to mid thirties,,,,I decided I wanted to collect "something", and the first thing that came to mind was "baseball cards". I didn't even know about century old cards-I was buying modern cards, then picked up a couple of cards from the 50's and 60's.....then discovered pre-war. Instantly I was hooked- I couldn't stop looking at them all (on ebay). They were, and still are, always out of my price range. I sometimes go for months without a pick up.

But I am still hooked on them-T206's (damn these things ). I understand that there is an investment side to things, but I try to put that out of my perspective for the most part-meaning, I am not buying cards because of what they may or may not be worth in the future. I hope they at least retain their value-but if they don't, oh well-I had a blast collecting them and I love them, and that's worth whatever I pay for them (to me).

So, you can't base the future of the hobby on what high school kids are doing......at least when it comes to pre-war cards (in my humble opinion ). Adults who want to collect things (some at least) will always find an attraction to pre-war cards, and their mystique of a time long past.

Sincerely, Clayton

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't have an opinion on the broader market but as I have said before, I think the values of freaks and miscuts and rarebacks is due in large part to a few lunatics here pumping each other up so I don't see those holding their value.

Originally Posted by EvilKing00

Speaking for myself, someone who collected cards since I was a kid in the 80's and 90's. If someone asked me when I was 18-29 if I was interested in collecting pre-war cards I would flat out say no. I had all to do, in finishing school, working a full time job, paying my rent and expenses, going out to bars and hanging out with girlfriends. And on the occasion pick my self up a few maddux and Griffey rookie cards, and throw then im my shoe box.

But as I got older, got married, had a kid, settled down, make more money I have time for a true hobby, cause im not distracted by being a young crazy "kid".

Collectors will allways be around, and always want the, old or older stuff. Weather its furnature, cars, advertising or baseball cards. It just takes the collector some time to mature, in my case.

Im 39 and have only just begun collecting, babe ruth and t205 cards last year. Not because I had no interest.... I just didn't have the funds or the time.

What the heck else is a 40 plus guy gonna do with his pocket money?

You and I sound like we're in approximately the same boat. I turn 40 in November, collected in the 90's, and thought it was all lost when I had to start working instead of cashing in on my Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa RC's. I walked away from the hobby for about 10 years until I caught the bug again, and now there's no going back.

I'll be the first to admit I'm a flipper, the kind I've heard people on this board generally don't care for but working in the field of education and with a two year old son and wife at home that's the name of my game. I buy to turn over, while also buying for my own personal and have absolutely no shame in what I do because its the only way I can finance the hobby.

One way we can all keep this hobby alive and thriving is sharing it with our children. I cant wait to see whether my son Jaxson takes an interest in the hobby or not. I plan to introduce it to him by giving him a choice of cards every year on his birthday and letting him chose which card he wants based on him researching the players and letting me know why it's the card he wants to add to his collection that year. As soon as he starts selling quality cards for video games I'm sure I'll be re-thinking this idea!

[wonkaticket]

I think its so funny and very telling that every time one of these threads pops up the case made is always about T206 prices. Nobody ever says who will be willing to drop 100k on a N172 CA league card years from now?

At least it shows the power and just how mainstream T206 is which is a good thing for the hobby.

If the folks who start the gloom and doom train only knew how much huge money was spent on other items like 50's regional issues, type cards, 19th century, advertising pieces etc. the least of their concerns would be 10k on a Drum or print error peanuts.....peanuts....peanuts compared to other stuff.

[ullmandds]

This topic has been discussed numerous times...and the sides are usually split down the middle. My stance on this topic usually mirrors that of myguyty in a lot of ways.

I am a collector...always have been...always will be to a degree...not just vintage bb cards...pottery, art, books, all kinds of stuff. But there aren't that many collectors out there! I don't have any friends outside of this hobby who collect much of anything?

Technology has changed society in so many ways...take music for example. We used to buy records, cassettes...look at them, play them...now people buy mp3's...they buy songs. It's much less tangible. Society is trending away from tangible things in a lot of ways in my opinion...and I find myself getting away from "things" as well.

I agree that the t206 freak/rare back phenomenon is incredibly overinflated...and over time these prices will drop quite a bit.

I think common vintage card supply of non hof'ers will exceed demand in the future causing these prices to drop as well.

I think there are many older collectors who will be leaving us/selling off their collections in the future...causing a large influx of cards into the hobby.

On the other side of the coin...many older people/collectors will be passing away...and will be leaving significant amounts of $$$$ to the younger generations...so the younger folk...while they may not have been successful as their parents will be inheriting a lot of $$$$ so they will have the means to buy baseball cards if they so choose.

As the popularity of modern cards diminishes...this could increase the popularity of older cards.

As the values of common, non high tier hof'ers decrease...the price point of entry will enable more to enter the vintage hobby who as they mature will pursue the higher buck cards.

Noone really knows what will happen to this hobby...we all can speculate...one thing I do know is that despite the fact I am a little bearish on the future of the hobby...I will be an active participant in it until I am no longer able!

I have trimmed my collection from quantity to more "quality" cards over the last few years as I think the big names and rarities will hold their values better over the long term.

[rdwyer]

I went to the Ducks-Kings hockey game last night at Dodger stadium. Was very entertaining, and even had KISS performing. The NHL is attracting more and more fans every day. The outdoor hockey games are responsible for this.

[gregr2]

50,000 at Yankee stadium today to watch the Rangers and Devils.

[mark evans]

I think MyGuy may be barking up the right tree.

I'm 64 and collected cards as a kid. With the advent of eBay, and in light of my interest in baseball history, I developed an interest in pre-war cards, although I of course never saw those guys play. Key to my interest in vintage cards was the fact that I had collected baseball cards in my youth.

I'm assuming a significant percentage of pre-war collectors, like me, first collected cards as a kid. If this is true, and if statistics are showing that fewer and fewer kids are collecting baseball cards, then it should follow that demand for vintage cards will decline over time.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

I think its so funny and very telling that every time one of these threads pops up the case made is always about T206 prices. Nobody ever says who will be willing to drop 100k on a N172 CA league card years from now?

At least it shows the power and just how mainstream T206 is which is a good thing for the hobby.

If the folks who start the gloom and doom train only knew how much huge money was spent on other items like 50's regional issues, type cards, 19th century, advertising pieces etc. the least of their concerns would be 10k on a Drum or print error peanuts.....peanuts....peanuts compared to other stuff.

John it all falls under the same umbrella, vintage baseball related goods. Hence the topic that OP brought up.......the OVERALL decline in interest in baseball and how it affects the future of vintage baseball memorabilia.