Manufactured scarcity vs. actual rarity

[jandr272]

Does anyone believe the cards manufactured intentionally rare, like the 1/1, 1/25, etc, will hold their value? How long has this been happening and have any maintained their value?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by jandr272

Does anyone believe the cards manufactured intentionally rare, like the 1/1, 1/25, etc, will hold their value? How long has this been happening and have any maintained their value?

Hard to say but almost all collectors on this board don't buy into the manufactured rarity game too much. I think research would probably show they don't hold their value, many times. Since I don't collect that stuff I can't help with when it started but my guess would be when all of the really shiny cards started being produced. ...good question though.....

[Section103]

One of the main problems with manufactured scarcity is that they arent even rare. A 1 of 10 often becomes a 1 of 10 that can be found in red, blue, purple, black and green.....this year. And next year, there's a similar 1 of 10 set all over again. For many collectors, there is no difference between a 2014 1 of 10 Mike Trout auto card and a 2015 1 of 10 auto card. When you start adding up those limited sets, they arent so limited anymore.

[frankhardy]

I think a true rarity is a card that wasn't meant to be so. When I think rare, I think test issues.

[mrmopar]

I have pondered that myself quite a bit. I stopped buying newer stuff for the most part in the late 90s/early 00s. I have amassed a sizable collection of Steve Garvey though and I do buy the new artificial rarities of his along with anything else that ALR-bishop has left over for me, but only time will tell beyond a single generation of buyers if these will still be desired later on.

I have a few older issues that are harder to find (mostly Dodgers oddball), but I guess my original budget and collecting interests lead me down the path I am on now. I guess in the end is a hobby only for me and although there is some resale value in it, I get what I enjoy and don't think too hard about future value.

[drcy]

10,000 1-of-1s is 10,000 cards.

If someone wants to collect those cards, that's fine by me. People should collect what they like and if they like modern cards that's great. But I think a financially sane way is to buy the modern stuff that is a few years old, where the prices have settled, and not the latest stuff. Just my two cents.

[DaClyde]

I think the manufactured rarity only works when the card itself is particularly desirable. Otherwise they end up like the dozens upon dozens of low-numbered cards that just sit on eBay month after month, getting nary a bid.

[Shoebox]

I have a weakness for HOF autos and game used and purchase many of them on eBay. It is littered with choices of manufactered rare cards. Like has been stated by others is the volume of 'rare' cards that dont stand apart. If I want a Juan Marical auto or a Derek Jeter jersey swatch I can find 200 choices of each in less than a minute. I target the attribute I want and a price range I want to be in . The low serial numbers have never influenced what I buy. The eye appeal and individual asthetics of the card/auto/relicare what drives me when I pick what I will bid on.

[steve B]

It's hard to say how they'll be looked at years from now. What's popular changes with time and I've seen a few things that were easy to get years ago become really good items. I've also seen some really popular stuff fade a bit or barely hold value.

Modern created rarities are cool in a way, and generally they're just what the serial number says. Having something that there's only 1 or 10 or 25 of is pretty cool.

But the downside is that there are so many of them they aren't seen as being anything special. And the current climate for modern stuff is more of a lottery ticket mentality. It's actually cheaper to buy the base sets from someone that opened a bunch of whatever it is. And the common inserts are really better bought that way if it's a set you're after.

I think some of the second tier stuff will actually do better in the long run. Almost nobody has a real shot at completing a set of the 1/1s or event the 1/25s. So they'll probably fade to being curiosities. But stuff like the retail specific inserts - The white paper framed GQs, or the ones with a border specific to a chain - Red for target, usually purple for Wal-Mart are something that's possible to complete. As time goes by they're also a bit tougher to come by, and I think underrated. I've done some quick approximations and they're likely tougher than anyone thinks. At least as tough as similar inserts like the more common paper framed GQs which are numbered to 499.

As far as manufactured rarity being a modern thing goes, There's a number of prewar sets and even postwar sets with manufactured rarities that get respect. R300 Ivy Andrews, US Caramel Lindstrom, The winner cards from the Atlantic oil set, In some ways most of the post/jello sets. A lot of sets had deliberately shortprinted cards.

Some of the most interesting stuff to me is the stuff marketed to collectors outside of the normal dealer channels. Shop at home exclusives and sometimes catalog retail exclusives. I lucked into a basketball set that was only done through Sears catalogs. The ones they showed were the normal cards, but it was a set of 100. It was in the catalog for well over a year. Then mom noticed a flyer with them on closeout. Figuring the "set " might be a picked group of stars and better players assembled by a company like treat I said sure, for a couple bucks each I may as well get a couple. When I got them they were a totally different set. Yellow borders, different checklist, pretty cool. I've only seen a couple sets offered since, at silly prices. Of course I missed the Topps/Nestles baseball because the ad showed sheets of normal Topps cards.


Steve B



Steve B

[ALR-bishop]

Since 1994 I have only bought the base Topps set, any update to it, and all the Heritage sets. No chase cards or inserts. I do like odd ball scarce pre 1994 stuff , and every once in awhile find something newer that I think I have to have

[Shoebox]

Love those Gordons!

[mrmopar]

Sounds like the Hoops set of 89/90 time frame? I think I have one of those myself.

Originally Posted by steve B

I lucked into a basketball set that was only done through Sears catalogs. The ones they showed were the normal cards, but it was a set of 100. It was in the catalog for well over a year. Then mom noticed a flyer with them on closeout. Figuring the "set " might be a picked group of stars and better players assembled by a company like treat I said sure, for a couple bucks each I may as well get a couple. When I got them they were a totally different set. Yellow borders, different checklist, pretty cool. I've only seen a couple sets offered since, at silly prices.

[brob28]

Originally Posted by Section103

One of the main problems with manufactured scarcity is that they arent even rare. A 1 of 10 often becomes a 1 of 10 that can be found in red, blue, purple, black and green.....this year. And next year, there's a similar 1 of 10 set all over again. For many collectors, there is no difference between a 2014 1 of 10 Mike Trout auto card and a 2015 1 of 10 auto card. When you start adding up those limited sets, they arent so limited anymore.

Like Rich and Dustin posted earlier, there are so many of these out there I would be skeptical. I have not searched but my guess is there are 1000's of Derek Jeter limited relic cards out there. Seems each year more appear for each and every star past and present.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by mrmopar

Sounds like the Hoops set of 89/90 time frame? I think I have one of those myself.

Yes, Hoops. I couldn't recall which brand and was too lazy to go upstairs an look.


Steve B