Hobby Resilience - Long Term

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Kzoo

I don't mean this in a arrogant way as that's not my personality, but it's not 'vague' at all to folks that have been truly paying attention the last several years. The MSM spoon feeds their narrative on a daily basis to the 'masses' as a cover story to keep us from noticing the true corruption that is destroying our country. It's worked for years, but with the mid-terms in 8 months and a social media 'change' on the horizon, the tide is slowly changing and the large amount of censorship will be coming to an end. It will be very interesting as it plays out. Again, just my opinion. Everyone's entitled to their own.

And I don't mean to be nasty, because that's not my personality at all, but my opinion of this is that it is the kind of paranoid nonsense that is actually in danger of destroying the country, or more precisely of dividing the country to the point that it destroys itself.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Vintage is only going up…if you get a correction in quality vintage it’s only a short term thing….buy it. Way way to Much Money Is Invested In Quality Vintage Cards not by guys like us who are collectors, we are the collateral beneficiaries, by guys who are strictly big card money buying investors.

I think you might be right, that our collectibles have become, in the perception of the marketplace, a reliable currency unto themselves even more than such standards as precious metals, diamonds, etc., which have always risen and fallen in value.

[Snapolit1]

Interesting about stamps. When I was a kid I loved collecting stamps. Me and my friend used to go to a JC Pennys which had a stamp counter. I loved it. Also went to the Long Island Stamp Dealers (LISDA) show once in a while. As a kid really exciting grown up stuff.
Me and my dad fell in love with the air mail zeppelin stamps. I always wanted him to buy a set of them, which at the time was the astronomical price of I think $900. Fast forward 45 years later. You can get a nice group of them on eBay for about ….. $900. Remarkable. Why haven’t stamps taken off. Americans have lost interest. I think stamps are amazing. I learned so much about America and even world history from collecting stamps. Damn good on identifying world flags even to this day. But as an investment … shit the bed.



[/B]

Originally Posted by Mark17

When I was a kid in the 1960s, I collected baseball cards, stamps, coins, bottle caps (with Twins players on the inside liner,) and a few other types of cards and other things. "Everybody" knew that only the coins and stamps were worthwhile long term. I would go to Woolworth's, where they had coin and stamps in large glass displays, hinged on the wall so you could page through them. I frequently would spend 35 to 40 cents for a plate block of 4 stamps from the 1950s mostly - so, 4 3 cent stamps plus the border showing the plate number.

My parents were pleased to see me tucking some of my money away into this long-term investment. Not that they had big expectations for future value, but it was seen as good, on principle, for me to be preserving my money rather than wasting it.

Fast forward 50 years. Last week I made another purchase of postage stamps, which I use for my mail order business. I get them from a guy who bought up very large stamp dealer inventories, and our standard deal, which we've done a half dozen times so far, is $2,000 face value in mint unused stamps, for $1,150 delivered. That's 57.5% of face value, and the seller always gives me a little extra, so more like 55%.

As usual, the stamps I get at that price are heavy in older, low denominations; the same ones I used to collect as a child. Now, I strip off the borders and plate numbers as waste, sort and audit them, and then use them on the packages I send, or offer them in smaller quantities (like 100 different for $10, or 300 diff. for $25) on ebay.

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

[Foo3112]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

And I don't mean to be nasty, because that's not my personality at all, but my opinion of this is that it is the kind of paranoid nonsense that is actually in danger of destroying the country, or more precisely of dividing the country to the point that it destroys itself.

+1. Leave that stuff for Gab & Parler and let's bring it back to cards.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by foo3112

+1. Leave that stuff for gab & parler and let's bring it back to cards.

100%

[Kzoo]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

And I don't mean to be nasty, because that's not my personality at all, but my opinion of this is that it is the kind of paranoid nonsense that is actually in danger of destroying the country, or more precisely of dividing the country to the point that it destroys itself.

Fair enough Hank and Marc. A topic was raised, and I commented. I'm definitely not 'paranoid', just observant. We'll stick to cards.

[joshleon]

I collected coins briefly as a kid. I recall having a complete set of Franklin halves. I still remember the 49S as being the "tough" one. Looked them up on ebay last week and they sell for the exact same price as they did in 1986 (or at least as I recall). I sold the set in 1986 and bought vintage cards...

If only I had done the same with PanAm and Apple stock.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Kzoo

I don't mean this in a arrogant way as that's not my personality, but it's not 'vague' at all to folks that have been truly paying attention the last several years. The MSM spoon feeds their narrative on a daily basis to the 'masses' as a cover story to keep us from noticing the true corruption that is destroying our country. It's worked for years, but with the mid-terms in 8 months and a social media 'change' on the horizon, the tide is slowly changing and the large amount of censorship will be coming to an end. It will be very interesting as it plays out. Again, just my opinion. Everyone's entitled to their own.

I appreciate the reply. I don't entirely disagree that corruption is destroying the country, but I don't see the connection to "censorship." Also, what is the "social media 'change'" on the horizon?

Most of all, what does any of this have to with projecting card values?

(I don't mean any of this in an arrogant way either. Genuinely interested in hearing collectors' opinions. Thanks)

[Leon]

Thanks for sticking to cards, guys. Politics in today's world is a toxic subject.

And I feel good with my cards I have bought concerning their potential valuation. And if that doesn't happen I still have some cool baseball cards!

[Hankphenom]

I wonder what happened to stamps and coins, stagnating or even declining in value, as opposed to other collectibles that have appreciated, some exponentially, over the years. I think stamps and coins are still popular, with millions of collectors and large conventions, so what explains the difference? Maybe they're just not as much fun or as interesting as the others? They were probably the earliest major collectibles, why didn't they at least keep pace?

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I wonder what happened to stamps and coins, stagnating or even declining in value, as opposed to other collectibles that have appreciated, some exponentially, over the years. I think stamps and coins are still popular, with millions of collectors and large conventions, so what explains the difference? Maybe they're just not as much fun or as interesting as the others? They were probably the earliest major collectibles, why didn't they at least keep pace?

Take some names like Bugs Raymond, Hooks Wiltse, Nap Rucker, Rough Carrigan. Probably nobody else, of any note, has ever had these names, besides the ballplayers of the 1910 era. I would bet that every year, fewer and fewer people know who these men were. 20 or 30 years from now, far fewer people will know (or care) than today. 50 years from now, they may be completely obscure, save for a tiny number of hard core baseball historians.

Hank, we've discussed The Glory of Their Times before. I would say that book has done for tobacco era cards what the 1952 Topps Mantle has done for post war cards. So, I would say, keeping interest (and value) alive for the old common baseball cards keys on keeping alive the history of the game during that era, through books and movies.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I wonder what happened to stamps and coins, stagnating or even declining in value, as opposed to other collectibles that have appreciated, some exponentially, over the years. I think stamps and coins are still popular, with millions of collectors and large conventions, so what explains the difference? Maybe they're just not as much fun or as interesting as the others? They were probably the earliest major collectibles, why didn't they at least keep pace?

Baseball, Football, Basketball, Antiques Roadshow, American Pickers, Storage Wars, etc. all on TV and cable and generating public interest. But even with all these shows, can't remember when I last saw coins or stamps on any of them.

[Mike D.]

On stamps and coins...you gotta remember, there are people right now who are adults who probably have handled coins and/or stamps a handful of times in their lives.

OK, "a handful" is probably an exaggeration, but these days you can probably go MONTHS without touching either a stamp or a coin.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Hank, we've discussed The Glory of Their Times before. I would say that book has done for tobacco era cards what the 1952 Topps Mantle has done for post war cards. So, I would say, keeping interest (and value) alive for the old common baseball cards keys on keeping alive the history of the game during that era, through books and movies.

Yes, Mark, I've always thought that the publication of Larry's book followed shortly thereafter by the beginnings of collecting conventions, SABR meetings, and other manifestations of a heightened interest in baseball history is no coincidence. And baseball and other cards had a long history before that, some of the few mass collectibles you could point to along with stamps and coins, there just wasn't much organization or money to it. I've wondered on occasion if you had a nice Babe Ruth signed baseball in say, 1955, and wanted to sell it, where would you go and what could you get for it? I'd guess an antiques dealer might give you fifty bucks and try to sell it for a hundred, but even that might be overstating the market at that time for something that could buy your kid a college education today.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

Interesting perspective, thanks for sharing.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Kzoo

I don't mean this in a arrogant way as that's not my personality, but it's not 'vague' at all to folks that have been truly paying attention the last several years. The MSM spoon feeds their narrative on a daily basis to the 'masses' as a cover story to keep us from noticing the true corruption that is destroying our country. It's worked for years, but with the mid-terms in 8 months and a social media 'change' on the horizon, the tide is slowly changing and the large amount of censorship will be coming to an end. It will be very interesting as it plays out. Again, just my opinion. Everyone's entitled to their own.

Thanks, Dale...when are the black UN helicopters coming?



Seriously, take the political stuff to a political web site. We discuss cards here.

[Foo3112]

Seriously, take the political stuff to a political web site. We discuss cards here.

Your post is also unnecessary. No need to bring up something that happened a couple of days ago just because you were late to the party. This was discussed, handled, and all parties agreed to move on, yet you felt your voice also needed to be heard.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Foo3112

Your post is also unnecessary. No need to bring up something that happened a couple of days ago just because you were late to the party. This was discussed, handled, and all parties agreed to move on, yet you felt your voice also needed to be heard.

Not sure why giving a belated opinion is unnecessary. I do it quite frequently. But to reiterate, lets try to stick to cards..

Concerning hobby resilience, I will always like looking at this card, valuable or not. And since my daughter doesn't collect, I don't care as much what future generations do.
As the OP mentioned, vintage has never let me down.
.

[Exhibitman]

Damn, Leon, that is a great card.

[molenick]

I think book collecting is to some degree analogous to what happened to stamp/coin collecting. An aging collector group, young people who in many cases do not come into contact with the physical object (not that they don't read, just that they don't need a book to do so), and the realization that many items were considered "scarce" only because you had to buy them from a handful of dealers. With eBay and AbeBooks, you can pretty much get any book you want now. Maybe not in the condition you want, or in the edition, but for any book published since ca. 1970, probably 95% of the books you are looking for.

Like stamps and coins, the very rarest books will still be in demand and command high prices in an auction. But it's based almost entirely on rarity. You will pay more for better condition, but it's not like a Putnam team history in "like new" condition will sell for 100's of times more than a nice looking but technically very good copy. Many of the books I paid a premium for because of scarcity, edition, or condition are worth the same (or less) than they were 30 years ago (if I could sell them at all).

It may not be an exact analogy, but it is an area of the hobby where there has been mostly a decline in value (especially if you take inflation into consideration). There simply is not enough demand to support the supply. There aren't a lot of stories of coming home from college to find that your books were thrown away and now you are chasing your childhood collection.

[Yoda]

I wonder these days if anybody reads anything that is not on a screen.

[Bridwell]

Sometimes I watch Antiques Road Show. Sometimes they repeat older shows and update the values of the items. Some go up in value and some have gone down. It depends on demand. For example, collectibles about Astronauts have gone up. Guitars have been a good investment. Items used by celebrities have gone up. Metal and Porcelain Signs have increased.

[molenick]

I will say that my daughter and son (27 and 24) prefer physical books, but maybe that's already too old a demographic to draw any conclusions from. Also, they grew up in a house where there were books on bookcases, so it was what they were used to.