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#1
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Was mainly focusing on the 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout. In terms of comparison to Mantle, Trout needs win somewhere close to 7 World Series and play in somewhere near 12 World Series to have an accurate comparison. Not sure about "WAR" but I do know about "World Series".
Last edited by sfh24; 12-06-2018 at 03:01 PM. |
#2
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I think Trout will go to be everything Ken Griffey Jr. was supposed to be but without the flair. He's simply incredible. I think his Topps rookie is definitely a safe investment long term but maybe not in the short term if you're only interest is flipping. He is likely to be the greatest player of the 21st century.
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#3
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I don't see that much upside. His likely career trajectory is already priced in I think. And the card is common as dirt. I think his harder to find cards are a better buy. That said, my only Trout is a Topps Update lol.
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#4
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The Trout card that still has meat left is the 2011 Finest auto. Numbered and his only RC auto card.
Update is very cool, and very common.
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#5
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Etopps!!!
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#6
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#7
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It gets no love. The numbers are absurdly low compared to his other regular issues.
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#8
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Quote:
But then again, Babe Ruth played in the first half of the 20th century, and nobody disputes that he was the greatest player of the 1900s... so who knows...
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#9
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Quote:
Last edited by packs; 12-10-2018 at 08:30 AM. |
#10
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Quote:
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#11
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Interesting correlation. 5=7? 5=12? Are any of them the All time HR leader for the WS? Any of them the All-time leader in WS RBIs? WS walks? WS total bases?
Last edited by sfh24; 12-07-2018 at 02:30 PM. |
#12
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I just find it confusing that a person would ask about the long term viability of a Mike Trout card and yet not be interested in how the accomplishments of, you know, the player depicted on that card and how he compares to some of the all-time greats.
If the only lens you'd like to view players or cards through is by way of World Series accomplishments, then have it. Seems like you can answer your first post pretty well on your own then. |
#13
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In regards to the Mantle comparison, Mike Trout is one of several who match up with Mantle statistically. However, (as all of the rest) Mike Trout falls far short of Mantle when it comes to production on the highest stage. The focal point of the topic pertains to the mass production of the 2011 Topps Update vs the ability sustain its current value. Last edited by sfh24; 12-07-2018 at 05:39 PM. |
#14
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Quote:
Fourth, we know for a fact that it also overrates baserunning. Bill James came up with a formula for predicting the number of runs a team would score based on an equation including both positive and negative events (with the former being the numerator and the latter the denominator, as I recall) which was consistently accurate within 2-3 %, and the only "baserunning" factors it took into account were stolen bases versus number of times caught stealing and number of times grounding into double plays. Taking that as a given, we can conclude that baserunning, in terms of taking the extra base, certainly is not a huge factor in a player's offensive worth. What "WAR" really stands for, in the event one is attempting to utilize it as one number which accurately evaluates the total worth of a player, is WORTHLESS ANALYTICAL RATSHIT. It is simply one factor to be considered along with many others, and by no means the be-all and end-all of the complete value of a player. WAR, last June, had Mike Trout supposedly on pace to post the greatest single season of all time, when in point of actual fact, he was on pace to match Mantle's third best season (1961), based on OPS+ (which has a 92% correlation to runs created), and there were any number of player's seasons which were quite obviously considerably better--see the numerous seasons in which both Babe Ruth and Ted Williams created more than 300% of the league average runs produced by a player. Trout, of course, fell behind that pace with his injury, ending up this past season with a 199 OPS+ to Mantle's 206 OPS+ for 1961. Once more at the risk of redundancy, Trout beyond any rational dispute, does not match up with Mantle statistically, at least at this point, and personally, I think his chances of doing so are about 250 miles behind in the rear view mirror. 'Nuff said, Larry Last edited by ls7plus; 12-08-2018 at 11:00 PM. |
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