Is it time to ask AGAIN if T206 prices are falling?

[iwantitiwinit]

I started a thread yesterday for Mile High winnings and stated I won a card for what I thought was a very reasonable price. In that thread Eric Summers mentioned he had repurchased a card for significantly less than he had recently sold it for (others stated similar low prices). Given that I thought it was worth going back and looking at all the t206 prices in the auction and in my opinion not only were the prices reasonable they were shockingly low.

Why? Did REA's auction running relatively concurrently have an impact (there is only so much cash to go around)? Septembers stock market pull back? Do collectors have T206 collection fatigue? Have the deep pocketed T206 collectors pulled out of the market? What do you think? Any other examples of recent "bargains".

Some notables from the Mile High Auction (I'm not calling out MH just noting falling prices):

The cycle backed cards went ridiculously cheap PSA 4's under $75 with the juice and PSA 3's even cheaper;
EPDG's also went cheaply a few psa 4's below $100;
Lundgrens went cheap;

This exact Bill Hart went for over $900 in a recent Love of the Game Auction and goes for $300 less in MH. I also noted that other recently auctioned cards were re-auctioned here and the flipper did not make out well.

[Luke]

Speaking only for myself, I simply missed this auction. A lot of the Sovereigns and EPDGs would have ended higher if I hadn't. It's possible some other people who would normally bid didn't realize this one was happening.

[JustinD]

I think over saturation of the auction house market will naturally lead to this happening.

I think eventually we will see a few bow out as concurrent auctions will lead people to choose based on budget and just not being able to bid on 60 things at once. Ebay needed competition, but the opening was huge and many people jumped into the ring. That group will narrow as time goes on.

Till the amount of sales equals demand you will see things sell lower and slip through the cracks. Supply and demand rules all and that rule is unbreakable.

We may also be seeing a bit of a buyer exodus from the auction scene as some of the prices are rediculous. There is no reason on earth to pay 3 times the previous value of a month ago just because you are getting it from a well known auction house. The gambler mentality of auctions have garnered some well heeled spending addicts (much to the happiness of the ownership) but the reasonable people are going to step back and remember the housing prices of the early 2000s.

[t206fix]

Originally Posted by LukeLyon

Speaking only for myself, I simply missed this auction. A lot of the Sovereigns and EPDGs would have ended higher if I hadn't. It's possible some other people who would normally bid didn't realize this one was happening.

I agree with Luke. I didn't know about this auction. If so, I would have bid on a lot of these also.

[Edwolf1963]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I think over saturation of the auction house market will naturally lead to this happening.

+1

[Leon]

Originally Posted by t206fix

I agree with Luke. I didn't know about this auction. If so, I would have bid on a lot of these also.

The auction was posted on the front page of this forum the morning of the day it ended and is still the 2nd to last thread on this page. I guess not everyone that posts reads the other threads?

ps....I am going with over saturation of the auction market for depressed prices.

[bn2cardz]

It is also the time of the year. I have noticed that Oct-Dec seems to bring lower auction prices. I have believed it starts with the over saturation of competing fall auctions leading into the holidays where collectors stop spending money on themselves and save for holiday gifts.

[rjackson44]

A card is worth what someone is willing to pay for it 😎

[tab]

I would have been bidding but I guess they don't want my business. Tried to register a week or so ago. Never did get a response. Tried to get in contact with them by email, no response. Tried to register again , no response. I did check my junk folder by the way nothing there.

[btcarfagno]

How many times have we had this discussion? At some point in the not too distant future there will be an auction house having an auction where the T206 results will be really high and we'll all look at this thread and be like


Tom C

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by tab

I would have been bidding but I guess they don't want my business. Tried to register a week or so ago. Never did get a response. Tried to get in contact with them by email, no response. Tried to register again , no response. I did check my junk folder by the way nothing there.

A year or two or three ago I also tried to register and never received a response. One would think that approving registrations would be a priority. They're one of the very few (perhaps the only) auction house that I haven't bid in.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by tab

I would have been bidding but I guess they don't want my business. Tried to register a week or so ago. Never did get a response. Tried to get in contact with them by email, no response. Tried to register again , no response. I did check my junk folder by the way nothing there.

A two minute phone call pushed my registration through about 5 minutes after I entered my info on their website during the auction prior to this one.

And if prices are falling I will take a couple of Cobbs off someone's hands, preferably PSA or SGC 3-4, common backs are fine.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

A two minute phone call pushed my registration through about 5 minutes after I entered my info on their website during the auction prior to this one.

And if prices are falling I will take a couple of Cobbs off someone's hands, preferably PSA or SGC 3-4, common backs are fine.

Just look at the 10 year history..some cards go up then come down then up again....I wouldn't worry about now....10 years ago from the non-stud cards...maybe that's when to ask the question..but 1 2 or 3 bad auctions in a row aren't enough of an indicator...the cards will likely have their ups and downs..

Dealers I know don't care about low auction results..they will keep citing a price from 3 years ago as to why their card is priced right...they don't care about any auctions that show a card going for lower..only auctions that enforce what they say even if its only 1 of the past 5 auctions..

[4815162342]

What do you guys think about the hammer on the PSA 4 Doyle Nat'l last night? It was around $20k less than the last time it was on REA in 2009. And to add insult to injury, a PSA 3 sold for $414,750 in 2012.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

What do you guys think about the hammer on the PSA 4 Doyle Nat'l last night? It was around $20k less than the last time it was on REA in 2009. And to add insult to injury, a PSA 3 sold for $414,750 in 2012.

prices are falling....I thought the 52 topps mantles as well on the mile high and rea auctions fell as well except the BVG..

[iwantitiwinit]

REA Elberfeld SGC 60 goes for only $600, I can remember selling a PSA 5 in 2012 at $1900. Now granted psa in general sells for higher than sgc but $600 for a 5 is a weak price. This is just one example of last nights prices but thats drastic.

[MVSNYC]

The really rare pieces will always hold their value...look at last night's BL460, Drum (which was in very poor condition), Uzit, Lenox's, SL Hindu's, CB's, etc...all went high.

[jl9999]

Originally Posted by tab

I would have been bidding but I guess they don't want my business. Tried to register a week or so ago. Never did get a response. Tried to get in contact with them by email, no response. Tried to register again , no response. I did check my junk folder by the way nothing there.

I had the same issue with them. They e-mailed saying they wanted me to call them. Called repeatedly nobody ever picked up or answered of my messages. Sent multiple e-mails, nothing.





John Leso

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

And if prices are falling I will take a couple of Cobbs off someone's hands, preferably PSA or SGC 3-4, common backs are fine.

Based on the last two auction results, it would appear as though Cobb is immune to this perceived swoon. (Sadly, as I'm also looking to buy some mid-grade Cobbs.)

[GregMitch34]

REA results for t206 brown Hindus were very high, right?

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

REA results for t206 brown Hindus were very high, right?

I'm specifically referring to t206's, relative to t207's you are probably right I don't follow them. I guess some REA lots did go relatively high but there were exceptions and it didn't seem like there were any lots going cheaply in REA in recent memory.

What some have said appears to be accurate, pricing for many of the truly rare cards are strong, but for many of the others prices have slipped.

[gs1968]

All the BL 350's went for very low prices. Bescher was a steal at 1200.00 fell asleep and missed it oh well

[arc2q]

I don't have much experience dealing with AHs, but in general I notice that prices always dip in the Fall as most fans get baseball fatigue and move into football season. While many collectors don't follow the modern game, I think it still holds subconscious influence. My personal interest, and aggressiveness in buying, always surges in the spring as baseball season kicks off.

[Joshchisox08]

I sure hope that the prices are going down =)
The cheaper the more I can get my greedy mitts on !!!

[CMIZ5290]

In my opinion, PSA graded T206 prices are fine. You can never go wrong with Cobb, never.

[bbcard1]

I also think the T206s are very solid at the bottom, which is where I generally play. They seem to have crept up a little bit on the low end and seem to be holding.

The Hart is an interesting case. I can see it being a card that would have pretty wide sale price swings in that the cut makes it a fairly unattractive card with a very attractive holder.

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

The really rare pieces will always hold their value....

Not true at all. Consider the T206 Doyle selling for $260,000. Purchased Spring 2009 for $329,000. Sold yesterday for $260,000. Loss of $69,000.

However, it was much worse than that. Consider the alternative to spending $329,000 on a card in Spring 2009. The Dow was at 8,200. Now it is at 17,200. $329,000 invested Spring 2009 in the Dow would be $690,000 now. Investment opportunity loss was $361,000. Adding the actual dollar loss of $69,000 means real loss was $430,000 in today's dollars.

But, it gets worse than that. Stocks in the Dow pay dividends averaging about 3% per year. From Spring 2009 to now, dividends would have been about $114,000. Adding this to the investment opportunity loss of $361,000 and the actual dollar loss of $69,000 means real loss was about $544,000.

It actually gets worse still if you consider that the dividends of $114,000 could have been reinvested into the Dow. That's another $20,000.

All told, the "investor" lost an additional $0.5 million on top of the perceived loss of $69,000.

[MVSNYC]

Eric, we can agree to disagree.

Funny, I was not meaning to reference the Doyle when I made my statement...I think choosing the Doyle for your in depth analysis is not a good chose at all. It is such a thinly traded market for that particular card. There are only a handful of people who need/can afford such a card. If one or two of them are not bidding for one reason or another, it will impact the hammer price significantly, as it apparently did in this Doyle's case. The Wagner, actually, is a much better barometer, if you want to chose a high-dollar, rare card.

Again, I think if you look at the BL460 pricing, along with Uzits, Lenoxs, etc...you'll find those prices are extremely strong.

[Joshchisox08]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

Based on the last two auction results, it would appear as though Cobb is immune to this perceived swoon. (Sadly, as I'm also looking to buy some mid-grade Cobbs.)

How about a Cobb for us poor people ??

[JustinD]

Currently on the hunt for a 2-4 Cobb myself.

Always plenty of competition for those. Those will slow down the day Goudey Ruths do.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Currently on the hunt for a 2-4 Cobb myself.

Always plenty of competition for those. Those will slow down the day Goudey Ruths do.

right we are mentioning two of the most iconic cards...even when the housing bubble crashed..the waterfront properties on the ocean didn't get hit as hard......when the card market crashes and it will..the collectors will be throwing their money into those types of iconic cards....

[Laxcat]

I've had to pay about 20% more for the last couple of red Cobbs than I did for the first few. This is only in a 9 month span.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Laxcat

I've had to pay about 20% more for the last couple of red Cobbs than I did for the first few. This is only in a 9 month span.

Depends on grade when the POP starts to thin out..i know I sold two PSA 4 Green cobbs and after I sold the first one...no one on net54 offered anything close for the second one that I sold the first one for

[Yoda]

I was the happy and surprised winner of the Hart card. Just to underscore your point I figured it had to be at least a $1,000 card plus juice. Might get it switched over to SGC. If T206's are indeed trending lower, it might be a cold winter for a lot of dealers holding large inventories of them as well as the auction houses.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I was the happy and surprised winner of the Hart card. Just to underscore your point I figured it had to be at least a $1,000 card plus juice. Might get it switched over to SGC. If T206's are indeed trending lower, it might be a cold winter for a lot of dealers holding large inventories of them as well as the auction houses.

Was your card a PSA 9oc? If so, that's not a fair analysis on T206s. Qualified cards are always suspect to very low prices...

[Sean1125]

There are a few "player" exceptions to this rule, but the set, commons, variations, etc that aren't heavily controlled by the parties that be are dropping.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Sean1125

There are a few "player" exceptions to this rule, but the set, commons, variations, etc that aren't heavily controlled by the parties that be are dropping.

Sean- Then why do PSA SMR prices keep going up?? Not SGC, but PSA graded....

[Sean1125]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Sean- Then why do PSA SMR prices keep going up?? Not SGC, but PSA graded....

Can you give me some specific examples?

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Sean1125

Can you give me some specific examples?

If you look at PSA SMR on a weekly basis like I do, you very seldom see any red ink (indicates a reduction in value). When you do, it's normally an isolated card that sold for less than published value in a major auction like Goodwin, REA, etc... T206s values are much more in the green than red, much more (indicating a raise in value). I vividly remember SMR prices not that long ago for a PSA 8 being $850 for a common, now they are at $1600 for a common...

[Sean1125]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

If you look at PSA SMR on a weekly basis like I do, you very seldom see any red ink (indicates a reduction in value). When you do, it's normally an isolated card that sold for less than published value in a major auction like Goodwin, REA, etc... T206s values are much more in the green than red, much more (indicates a raise in value). I vividly remember SMR prices not that long ago for a PSA 8 being $850 for a common, now they are at $1600 for a common...

You need to quantify "not that long ago" for me. I can't refute or agree with an opinion when I can't quantify the time period it is being made over.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Sean1125

You need to quantify "not that long ago" for me. I can't refute or agree with an opinion when I can't quantify the time period it is being made over.

I found a set being sold by REA in late 2006. The SMR price for a 7 was $275, now it's $565. The SMR price for a PSA 8 was $750, now it's $1600. Thats 9 years ago with values being doubled. These were just values for commons. If you look at key HOFers like Cobb, Johnson, Mathewson, etc..., the percentage is probably even higher...

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Was your card a PSA 9oc? If so, that's not a fair analysis on T206s. Qualified cards are always suspect to very low prices...

why do you compare your OC cards than to cards without qualifiers? Like you say a PSA 9 sold for $47,000! and you would be selling a PSA 9 OC..why quote the straight psa 9 when you know that qualified cards are always suspect to very low prices....i was just surprised of this recent comment..

[1952boyntoncollector]

duplicate by mistake

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

why do you compare your OC cards than to cards without qualifiers? Like you say a PSA 9 sold for $47,000! and you would be selling a PSA 9 OC..why quote the straight psa 9 when you know that qualified cards are always suspect to very low prices....i was just surprised of this recent comment..

btw you do have some nice OC cards though.....

When I advertise qualified cards, sometime I give the SMR for unqualified cards. This is to emphasize how good of a value they are if you don't really care about flawless centering on a straight grade. It's not meant to be deceiving in anyway, it is what it is. The point I was making previously to the other poster, you can't compare qualified PSA cards with the current market on non qualified cards.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Sean- Then why do PSA SMR prices keep going up?? Not SGC, but PSA graded....

My bet is that SMR prices are going up because they were inexplicably low to begin with. They are going up because they are actually closing the gap to true market value. For T206, the SMR prices on key HOF's finally appear to be within a standard deviation of VCP prices. However, compare prices of SMR Cracker Jacks, for example, to actual realized prices and it's easy to dismiss SMR as a good barometer of card values.

As an aside, it blows my mind that SMR values would ever lag true values as PSA has a vested interest in higher market prices at each grading level.