What are the qualities that factor into price volatility in T206s?

[Archive]

Posted By: nbrazil

What are the card qualities, eliminating errors, that explain the difference of prices in graded T206 cards, minus Plank, Wagner, O'hara, Doyle, Cobb w/ Cobb back and Demmitt?

Here's what I have:

Grading company
Grade
Back
HOF'er or not
SL'er or not
Portrait vs. non portrait

Anything else?

Let's not factor into the "display" of the card...i.e. buy the card not the holder (if the card has a hidden crease or paper loss, but looks fantastic...it would likely fetch more money).

Thanks in advance.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimCrandell

How can you leave off the pop. Its all about the pop.

[Archive]

Posted By: OnlyBaloney

That is a little world that you are in, Jim. For almost all of the t206s in existence, pop is not a factor.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimCrandell

Sorry Gil. You are wrong in your little world. Have you ever seen a graded card sale for T206s. The pop is the driving factor. Join the 21st century.

[Archive]

Posted By: OnlyBaloney

I believe that we are at an impass Jim. We both feel that the other is full of baloney.

[Archive]

Posted By: Marc S.

I think the Pop is perhaps less important and what is more important is:

A) Whom are the major players competing for the card
and
B) How badly do they want the card as an upgrade.

Although population is likely a fairly decent proxy for the above...it does not explain the demand side of the equation, which is where you see most of the significant price volatility on high-grade T-206 cards, HOF or otherwise.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

With regard to commons it's all about the Pop. Nothing else matters.

[Archive]

Posted By: nbrazil

thanks for the responses.

can one use grade as a barometer of Pop? i would assume they are both highly correlated.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimCrandell

Marc,

I am sending you back to Harvard for more education.

[Archive]

Posted By: Marc S.

Can I send you a (third) tuition bill?

You say it's supply, I say it's demand. It's a combination of both, of course.

Not much different than Oilfield services, were I to speculate

[Archive]

Posted By: JimCrandell

Ha! Of course you are right Marc.

I will pay for a semester if I can get some kind of call option on your future earnings once you start making over $5mm/yr--or maybe you are there already?

[Archive]

Posted By: Marc S.

come now, I don't make Wall Street money.

I'm merely a financial analyst who happens to manage some people. I'm sure the most junior of analysts in your shop beat me by leaps and bounds. My only (limited) upside is in the stock (and options) of a company that is already richly valued --- but, thankfully, has appreciated 18% since I joined 3 1/2 months ago.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimCrandell

Sounds good to me Marc--hope your family's well.

[Archive]

Posted By: fessgreg

jim is right pop's are very important especially in high grade, were there is only a few. signed fessgreg

[Archive]

Posted By: peter chao

Jim C.,

How accurate are the PSA pops? The thing that bothers me is the grading card wars went on for a few years before PSA became dominant. Do you think that there were many high grade T206 cards in other card holders?

Peter C.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimB

Pop is a factor in almost every grade. It is exaggerated at the very high-end, but why do you think SLs cost 3x what regular commons do? It is not a preponderance of nostalgic southerners compared with collectors from other parts of the country. It's the pop. Ted has done some great research in discerning which cards are tougher by series, etc. That research has revealed what collectors were already saying with their pocketbooks - that some commons are a lot tougher than others (i.e. low pops).
JimB

Edited to correct spelling.

[Archive]

Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Jim B,
While I agree the pops play a huge role in the common cards, they don't mean near as much with the Southern Leaguers. They were short printed, like Hi Numbers and are therefore very tough to find in high grade. Besides, everyone loves US Southerners.... Be well Brian


PS A little fun, as my Heels beat Miami today...

[Archive]

Posted By: JimCrandell

Brian,

I think Jim's point was because they are SPs the pop is lower than regular commons.