|
|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
As an illuminating example of just how worthless WAR is, in any form, MLB Now had as a guest the person in charge of calculating and keeping track of defensive runs saved. In response to co-guest Ken Rosenthal's question, that person acknowledged that in point of actual fact, a defensive run saved is not actually a defensive run saved, because those who calculate such things totally ignore the context in which an outstanding defensive play is made. Thus, a diving stab and subsequent putout on a grounder about to get through the infield with the bases loaded and two out is worth exactly the same as the same play made with a runner on first and two out--one defensive run saved. In reality, the expected run value in the latter situation is far from a complete run-- it is actually 0.2203. Counting it as nearly .78 greater than it actually is in this and other such situations hugely inflates the defensive component of WAR. And insofar as the baserunning component of WAR is concerned, check out the guys who tend to lead the league in runs scored, which is of course the ultimate objective of running the bases--TO GET HOME! They most frequently are the players with the highest OBP, coupled with the capacity to get themselves all around the bases with one swing while standing at home plate--can you say Babe Ruth (led the league in runs scored 8 times)? Mickey Mantle (led 5 times, despite all his injuries)? Ted Williams (yes, with six top totals, he led the league in runs scored more times than DiMaggio, despite missing nearly 5 full years of his prime to military service)? Which is why Ralph Kiner, who could hardly have been said to have been touched at all with the gift of speed, scored over 100 runs 6 TIMES! Luis Aparacio had speed to burn, both to steal bases and take the extra base, yet he never, ever scored 100 runs in a single season even once in his career. The baserunning components of WAR are thus also greatly inflated. Insofar as offensive WAR is concerned, my information is that it is based upon Pete Palmer's linear weights values, due largely to the fact that Bill James' far more accurate formula for calculating runs created--shown to be consistently accurate within 2-3%--is more cumbersome to use and more complicated. In the middle of last season, WAR had Andrelton Simmons as the most valuable player in the AL. No, I'm not kidding--Simmons (who is admittedly a very fine fielding shortstop)! My point with regard to WAR is that when your methodology leads you to absurd results, the intelligent person questions his methodology, rather than following it blindly wherever it may lead. Concluding, it will be interesting to see where Jeter's popularity ends up if he is actually doing what he appears to be doing with the Miami francise--stripping it of expenses by trading quality players and getting very little in return--and selling it 5-7 years down the road to double his and the other investors' money (in case anyone hasn't noticed, that is approximately the rate at which the value of sports franchises is appreciating). As I've stated, buy him if you like him, but don't think he was in any way, shape or form any kind of world-beater as a player. It is indisputable that there have been a very, very large number of better players throughout the history of the game than Derek Jeter. May collecting bring you joy rather than distress, Larry Last edited by ls7plus; 08-11-2018 at 11:50 PM. |
#2
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
__________________
Flawless BST transactions with Wondo, Marslife, arcadekrazy, Moonlight Graham, Arazi4442, wrestlingcardking and Justus. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Funny how the opposite is true! Plenty of managers headed to the hall that were par players or worse
__________________
"Trolling Ebay right now" © Always looking for signed 1952 topps as well as variations and errors |
#4
|
||||
|
||||
That seems to be a pretty well-known phenomenon that superstar players often poor managers because they often have difficulty relating to role players or guys with limited skills. Sure, there are exceptions. But so many of the best managers were average to below average players.
__________________
Flawless BST transactions with Wondo, Marslife, arcadekrazy, Moonlight Graham, Arazi4442, wrestlingcardking and Justus. |
#5
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
Even using OPS+ Jeter was significantly better than Trammell. He was 5% higher over a career of more than 3200 extra plate appearances. His slash numbers across the board were 25 points higher. Jeter only had one season below league average, at age 36. How is that accumulating stats? Any team would take a middle infielder who was an above average hitter. At age 36, Trammell was done as a regular. During his prime, Trammell was below average 7 of 15 seasons where he played 100 + games. Jeter was consistantly very good through out his career and in the post season. He was much better offensively than Trammell, that is why he will be a 1st ballot Hofer and Trammell couldn't get elected in 15 tries. |
#6
|
||||
|
||||
Just looked at the stats again. Jeter was 25 points higher in BA, 25 points higher in OBP, and 30 points higher in SLG. That seems a fairly substantial gap so not quite sure I understand the argument that they are virtually identical?
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 08-12-2018 at 08:21 AM. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Best wishes always, Larry Last edited by ls7plus; 08-14-2018 at 12:52 AM. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Jeter
With respect to the whole Jeter, Trammell thing. Trammell was really good. Jeter was better. That said, Jeter gets more pop than he deserves (Yankee effect, etc.). He was no Ted Williams.
With respect to the card prices, I think it is all sorts of silly and that lends itself to a possible fall. I have Jeter SP in a bvg 8.5 which is about $250. The “subtle difference” in my card and a 10 justifies a 400x increase when if you broke the cases there is a decent chance they could both wind up a “9” is a bit hard to swallow. However, the Jeter example is probably no more ridiculous than any other modern “10” hysteria. 1986 Fleer Basketball Johnny Moore is $4,000 in a 10 and $12 in an 8. There are 54 “rare” 10s compared to over a thousand 8s. So if I have a 10 and you have an 8, throwing in a 1939 Ted Williams rookie in let’s say a 5 and a 1939 Dimaggio in a 5 evens out the deal? That is the price difference because your Johnny Moore card has a tiny bit of wear on one corner that is “easily detectable” when you look at it under a magnifying glass? That’s my definition of silly. |
#9
|
||||
|
||||
Haven't there been multiple PSA 10s to come up for sale since the $99k? And haven't none of them even sniffed $70k? I'm not alone here, right? Other people smell what I'm stepping in, right? I mean, it's kind of laying out there like a stale fart.
Arthur
__________________
"A lot of those guys don't seem to be having as much fun as they should be." Successful transactions with Burger King, Amazon, Great Cuts, Tacos Villa Corona, TJ Maxx |
#10
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
23 grand is 23 grand. |
#11
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
you have me beat
I've changed my mind. The .5 grade difference is really really meaningful and I am highly embarrassed to display my "8" corners subgrade card on this fine forum. Not only is the price difference totally justified, but my willingness to put up with sloppy corners probably speaks to my worth as a human being and I have to thank Beckett for pointing out this flaw in my character. If I try to be better, perhaps the net54 community will forgive me.
|
#13
|
||||
|
||||
The difference between Jeter and Trammell is a lot. That is like saying Ralph Kiner and Jeff Bagwell were just as good of hitters as Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. They were not, they were ~5% worse and played few years in the majors. The ability to play at a high level for a long time is better than playing at a lower level for a shorter time.
|
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Highest regards in any even, Larry Last edited by ls7plus; 08-14-2018 at 12:41 AM. |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Jeter Rookie | cammb | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 4 | 05-25-2018 05:01 PM |
FS: Jeter Auto Rookie Card & PSA 7 Jeter 1993 SP Rookie card. | Wolfgang427 | 1980 & Newer Sports Cards B/S/T | 1 | 10-17-2014 05:20 PM |
1993 JETER SP ROOKIE AND GRIFFEY 89 UD psa 10 rookie | soxfan1986 | 1980 & Newer Sports Cards B/S/T | 2 | 08-31-2014 11:34 PM |
Finally making the jump. Help me buy a Clemente rookie. (55T) | WillBBC | 1950 to 1959 Baseball cards- B/S/T | 4 | 02-25-2014 02:35 PM |
5 Baseball Digest Rookie Scouting Report Issues | keithsky | Baseball Memorabilia B/S/T | 1 | 08-06-2012 04:00 PM |