Charleston v. Clemente

[aljurgela]

Hey guys,

A few years ago, I was doing some analysis and came to the conclusion that most negro league HOF cards were undervalued based on a "market cap" type discussion. I realized that many people did not follow my logic at the time and I just let it go.

Recently, I have been working on a "piece" that focuses on all of the negro league cards (all from Latin America) where I rank the cards, discuss value, pop report and issue idiosyncrasies. I am in revisions on the HOF list (63 total cards) and still working on the 250+ most important negro league non-HOF cards.

While I was writing a bit today, I thought that one of my examples would be an interesting discussion topic. Here is an excerpt from my piece:

As of 1/1/18 there are 27 graded Oscar Charleston cards (BTW I would be shocked if there were more than 50 total when adding the ungraded copies). If on average they are worth $20k (obviously some are more and some are less depending on condition), that would mean that all TPG Oscar Charleston cards from three different exceeding scarce 1920’s Cuban issues (Billiken, Tomas Gutierrez & Aguilitas Segundas) would be “worth” about $540k – sounds like a lot, right?

Let’s compare that to another great player who hails from Latin America – how about Roberto Clemente? For a quick comparison, let’s just focus on the 122 PSA 8 1955 Topps Clemente rookies – we will forget about the 11 PSA 9’s, 1 PSA 10 and the other 3,300 PSA graded Clemente rookies – and all of the SGC ones. I pick the PSA 8's because they are reasonably scarce with "only 122" copies, whereas Oscar Charleston cards are more scarce, but still available from time to time.

Even if we take the lowest Clemente price for PSA 8 in 2017 of roughly $20k (PWCC and HA both had sub $21k sales but there were also a number of $40k+ sales as well in 2017), the aggregate value of Clemente PSA 8 rookies would far exceed the cost of all of Oscar Charleston cards extant, by nearly a factor of five ($2.44 million vs. $540k). In fact, even the 11 PSA 9s would, on there own, far exceed the value of all Charleston cards (roughly $4+ million). When we include all Clemente rookies (remaining 3,300 PSA ones and the 1,100 SGC ones and and all of the other Clemente cards issued (1956 to 1973), this gap widens significantly. Let's just ignore all other Clemente cards for now.

It it hard for me to construct a case whereby the total value of all Charleston cards would exceed the value 5% of all the Clemente rookie cards on the market.

I find this a bit odd and my inner math tells me that I should expect to see the price of the Clemente's drop (indeed the PSA 8's had been selling for $40-50k and now have been in the mid $20k range of late), and the price of the Charleston's rise.

In the end, the market will be the market and the are "n" reasons why Clemente cards are more followed than Charleston cards (collectors today actually saw him, he was a hero to many, idol in Puerto Rico, tragic death, etc.), but I could do this analysis with virtually any post war player and / or T206 Hofers and the results would be quite similar, I imagine.

OK, I just put on my riot gear, so let the games begin!

[packs]

I would think the fact that there are so many more Clemente cards is the reason people are more interested in buying them. Set collectors aren't going to chase the Billiken set unless they have some kind of sin to atone for.

[aljurgela]

Originally Posted by packs

I would think the fact that there are so many more Clemente cards is the reason people are more interested in buying them. Set collectors aren't going to chase the Billiken set unless they have some kind of sin to atone for.

Nice!

I guess I am a bad, bad man then! The Billiken is downright easy when I compare it to the 1910 Punch Cigarros. I am only 70% of the way done with that one and have resigned myself to the fact that it will never be completed!

But back to the topic at hand, do you really think that it is the set collectors? I have always thought that the vast majority of collectors are player collectors, HOF collectors or "star" collectors.

[packs]

I don't think it's only the set collectors but I think that's an audience that Charlston and other players like him who have few cards will not attract. I don't know how many complete sets are registered in the PSA registry, but it's probably more than the known copies of Charlston's card.

[Peter_Spaeth]

For better or worse, other than Paige perhaps, the great Negro League players just aren't known or appreciated or desired by most people who collect, let alone the general public It doesn't surprise me at all, or suggest Clemente is overpriced.

[aljurgela]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

For better or worse, other than Paige perhaps, the great Negro League players just aren't known or appreciated or desired by most people who collect, let alone the general public It doesn't surprise me at all, or suggest Clemente is overpriced.

I just happen to believe that more SHOULD care, but I guess that is a matter of personal opinion and preference...

[Baseball Rarities]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

For better or worse, other than Paige perhaps, the great Negro League players just aren't known or appreciated or desired by most people who collect, let alone the general public

I would add Josh Gibson to that list as well.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by packs

I would think the fact that there are so many more Clemente cards is the reason people are more interested in buying them. Set collectors aren't going to chase the Billiken set unless they have some kind of sin to atone for.

The post quoted above alarmed me!

[packs]

Haha I thank you for your sacrifice.

[esd10]

I really think its a travesty that oscar charleston is not as well known as clemente and that really affect the prices of his cards.

[orly57]

This absolutely IS a supply and demand issue. Guys love t206 and guys love Topps. Guys don't love small, unpolished, black and white cards with Spanish on the back. It's not one of the cards they saw in their Beckett Magazines and coveted when they were 12 years old. (Please note that I personally think these cards are awesome)

This isn't an Oscar Charlseston vs Clemente issue at all. This happens with cards of the same player too. Look at Jeff Lichtmann's collection as an example. Jeff just dropped a ton of money on a Cobb-back with a population over 20. Within Jeff's own Cobb collection are cards that I find far more attractive and cool than the Cobb-back. Cards that have unique images that aren't used in any other set. (Compared to the common red Portrait image on the Cobb-back). Jeff has Postcards which also happen to be FAR more rare and attractive than the Cobb-back. Jeff has a D381 Cobb with coupon that is the only one known. Why aren't these worth more than the Cobb-back? They are more rare, more unique, more attractive, AND THE SAME PLAYER!!! The answer is demand.

[aljurgela]

Originally Posted by orly57

This absolutely IS a supply and demand issue. Guys love t206 and guys love Topps. Guys don't love small, unpolished, black and white cards with Spanish on the back. It's not one of the cards they saw in their Beckett Magazines and coveted when they were 12 years old. (Please note that I personally think these cards are awesome)

This isn't an Oscar Charlseston vs Clemente issue at all. This happens with cards of the same player too. Look at Jeff Lichtmann's collection as an example. Jeff just dropped a ton of money on a Cobb-back with a population over 20. Within Jeff's own Cobb collection are cards that I find far more attractive and cool than the Cobb-back. Cards that have unique images that aren't used in any other set. (Compared to the common red Portrait image on the Cobb-back). Jeff has Postcards which also happen to be FAR more rare and attractive than the Cobb-back. Jeff has a D381 Cobb with coupon that is the only one known. Why aren't these worth more than the Cobb-back? They are more rare, more unique, more attractive, AND THE SAME PLAYER!!! The answer is demand.

Good point on the Cobb's. I happen to find these cards AMAZING (and generally believe that most people who have seen one in person concur). I guess that I am partial to photographs, though, and the fact that he is on the famed 1923-24 Santa Clara team makes me love it even more.

The reality is that most people do not know about him, the Santa Clara team and will never know about them, which leads to the ultimate limited demand.

[bcbgcbrcb]

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