New Poll: Which Active Players are 'Shoe-in' HOFers?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Bill since you want to discount as atypical Beltre's 2004, what do his Seattle numbers look like if you don't include 2009? Quite a bit better, I expect.

[the 'stache]

Excluding his dismal 2009 season, Beltre's OPS + in Seattle, between 2005 and 2008, is 105. 5% above league average. Over the same four year period, Raul Ibanez had a 121 OPS.

Beltre's '05-'08 slash line is .319 OBP/.454 SLG/.773 OPS.
The AL average slash line from '05-'08 is .344 OBP/.433 SLG/.777 OPS.

Before going to Boston, when he had that career 105 OPS +, Beltre had had 7,455 plate appearances. How do we overlook that mediocrity for so long? Mike Trout has had 4,065 plate appearances in his career. Take how long Trout has played, (nearly) double it, and that's how long Adrian Beltre was a fringe league average hitter.

I can't overlook that. There is no logical way to explain how Beltre turned into a star after playing so long. That seems to happen to guys that go to Boston. David Ortiz was lousy in Minnesota. He had a career 108 OPS +, though he only had 1,908 career plate appearances. But he goes to Boston, and suddenly, he's got a 140 OPS +. And not banging countless shots off of, and over the Green Monster. Ortiz was a left handed pull hitter. The Monster is in left field.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bill since you want to discount as atypical Beltre's 2004, what do his Seattle numbers look like if you don't include 2009? Quite a bit better, I expect.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Excluding his dismal 2009 season, Beltre's OPS + in Seattle, between 2005 and 2008, is 105. 5% above league average. Over the same four year period, Raul Ibanez had a 121 OPS.

Beltre's '05-'08 slash line is .319 OBP/.454 SLG/.773 OPS.
The AL average slash line from '05-'08 is .344 OBP/.433 SLG/.777 OPS.

Before going to Boston, when he had that career 105 OPS +, Beltre had had 7,455 plate appearances. How do we overlook that mediocrity for so long? Mike Trout has had 4,065 plate appearances in his career. Take how long Trout has played, (nearly) double it, and that's how long Adrian Beltre was a fringe league average hitter.

I can't overlook that. There is no logical way to explain how Beltre turned into a star after playing so long. That seems to happen to guys that go to Boston. David Ortiz was lousy in Minnesota. He had a career 108 OPS +, though he only had 1,908 career plate appearances. But he goes to Boston, and suddenly, he's got a 140 OPS +. And not banging countless shots off of, and over the Green Monster. Ortiz was a left handed pull hitter. The Monster is in left field.

Brooks Robinson has an OPS+ of 104. Would you not vote for him? Beltre has an OPS+ of 117. Beltre started his exceptional run at the plate since his age 31 season. Starting at age 25, he only had 2 down years. I don't see that as out of line, especially from a foreign player. It some times takes time to adjust to playing and living in a foreign country. Roberto Clemente's peak was age 31 to 35. I know convension today is a player's career is pretty much over by age 30, but that is not always true.

[Peter_Spaeth]

At age 30 Phil Niekro and Randy Johnson hadn't accomplished much of anything. I am sure there are other examples.

I looked it up. Joey Bautista. Dante Bichette. Lefty O'Doul.

[packs]

Beltre had only one good season in LA at 25 years old. He was signed as a 17 year old. His lone stellar season occurred 8 years after he was signed and while on the verge of free agency, so I don't really think being a foreign player had anything to do with his lack of production. He hit 334 in 2004. He would not hit 300 again until 2010, 5 years later after singing a one year deal and seeking another pay day.

The coincidences and timeline of his career would give me serious pause as a voter.

[JollyElm]

The thing with Beltre is I (and I am sure many, many, many others) had no frickin' idea how great his career numbers were. Am I the only one who was ignorant of this fact?? When I saw a post this past season talking about him closing in on 3,000 hits, to say I was shocked is the understatement of the century. Talk about flying under the radar. Never would've guessed it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Unlike the Cowboys, the Rangers are not exactly America's team. An easy place to go under the radar, I think, particularly where your seasons are solid but not spectacular. 175 hits a year adds up though.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

At age 30 Phil Niekro and Randy Johnson hadn't accomplished much of anything. I am sure there are other examples.

I looked it up. Joey Bautista. Dante Bichette. Lefty O'Doul.

We ALL know, whether we admit it or not, that Knucksie juiced.

Stats aside, I still say that Beltre should go in (if only as a pioneer) just based on his moving the on-deck circle.