What to make of Graziano?

[Exhibitman]

The MHCC 1948 Leaf Graziano closed cheap: $23,477.51 for a PSA 4.

PSA's pop on Graziano is six: two "A", one 4, two 5 and one 6.5. SGC has 2, an "A" and a 50. I am not sure if any were cross-overs. I know of at least one raw card.

I believe that the one sold yesterday has transacted three times on record: it sold on Ebay in 2007 for $27,600 and sold for just under $18,000.00 some years before that.

So what, if anything, do we make of the price?

It is a manifestation of the decline of prices generally since 2008?

Was it format? I think MHCC screwed up by doing that "set or individual card prices whichever is best" thing for the 1948 Leaf set. If I'm going to emotionally commit to drop $20,000+ on a card I don't want the auction then contingent on a set sale price I can't control; it's just a big turnoff.

Was it the auctioneer?

Was it just an oversaturation of these cards in the last year or two? In November 2011 Legendary sold an SGC “A” Graziano for $29,625.00. A PSA 5 went for $41,125.00 in the 2011 REA auction. The best specimen, a PSA 6.5, sold privately through Legendary in 2011; I don’t know the price. Legendary had another Graziano in 2012, an SGC 50 that sold for $29,875.00.

[D. Bergin]

I think the Set/Individual format really does a card like this a disservice.

Boxing is a niche, and the Graziano is a card that will attract non-boxing collectors who don't really give a poof about the rest of the set.

Then again, it's also one of those types of cards with pretty wild price swings every time it's offered. It all depends on who's in the market for that particular card at that particular time, in that particular auction format.............just like most auctions.

So, in summation. "I don't know" is probably the best answer I can give.

[Griffins]

Anytime I see a set vs. singles type auction I automatically pass it by. It's a bad format and I won't feed into it. I'm sure I"m not alone on this.

[aaroncc]

I agree with Dave. "It all depends on who's in the market for that particular card at that particular time, in that particular auction format.............just like most auctions."

Not so sure that there are many people willing to pay that amount for that card at any time. But as always it only takes two to drive up the price. Don't think there is a set price for that card. I guess its safe to say any Leaf Graziano under 10K is a good deal. But the huge price swings when available makes this card unpredictable. Being a 19th century collector I could find something else I would rather spend my money on. I think the card is ugly.

[Exhibitman]

I've not heard of one sell for under $20K in the last decade except in a wholesale purchase from a layperson. Recent sales, as best as I can work it out:

October 2012 MHCC: $23477.51 [PSA 4]
May 2012 Legendary: $29,875.00 [SGC 50]
Spring 2011 REA: $41,125.00 [PSA 5]
Spring 2011 Legendary ?Private Sale? [PSA 6.5]
November 2010 Legendary: $29,625.00 [SGC "A"].
Winter 2007 Ebay: $27,600.00 [PSA 4]
2001 Mastro: $17,901.00 [PSA 4]

[esquiresports]

Seeing altered versions of this card - trimmed and colored - pulling $30K - I didn't think we would see this card go for less than that. I think there are a few reasons for this, all of which are of course just guesses.

1. It's almost November. Even people with $25K to drop on a card might start thinking about the holidays, travel, gifts and related costs. Take a look at the HA prices. A lot of steals.

2. Heritage Auctions closing right behind this one. Heritage had a huge two-part catalog with a lot of high end cards to choose from. Some people may have saved money to spend at HA. I know I held some back (and then missed the deadline!)

3. The auction company. No slam on Mile High - they get some nice cards. But I think HA, REA, SCP, Legendary and others may pull in more deep pockets bidders.

4. Auction format. Agree that set or lots alternatives are not fun to track.

5. The complete was in the lead. For almost the entire auction, the set bid was winning, and it may have turned off bidders. Are you going to break out a calculator and add up the 50 cards to determine whether you nights have a shot at an individual card or are just wasting your time?

I love this card for several reasons, particularly because it is from a major issue, a numbered set, isn't an error, isn't a variation, isn't a test issue. It's a legitimate card from a big name set and less than 10 have ever been discovered. That means less than 10 complete sets are possible. I'm pretty much a post-war guy for now, but cannot think of a post-war example that fits this fact pattern. Would love to discover a lost Topps card one day. Closest I can think of is 2006 Topps Alex Gordon, but several hundred of those cards exist.

[Exhibitman]

"I love this card for several reasons, particularly because it is from a major issue, a numbered set, isn't an error, isn't a variation, isn't a test issue. It's a legitimate card from a big name set and less than 10 have ever been discovered. That means less than 10 complete sets are possible. I'm pretty much a post-war guy for now, but cannot think of a post-war example that fits this fact pattern. Would love to discover a lost Topps card one day. Closest I can think of is 2006 Topps Alex Gordon, but several hundred of those cards exist."

As far as I know the recent A card was hand cut but not colored.

The Hocus Focus cards fall into that class except for the major set part. There are only a few known examples of them.

[Exhibitman]

I've spoken with a number of collectors about this auction since my initial post and the overwhelming consensus is that the format of the auction was a huge negative factor. Several of them told me specifically that they will not even consider bidding in an auction of this format.

[travrosty]

i think it is because only one had been known, then 2, now 8 or 9 so. that's too many for the very few boxing card collectors with that much coin to afford a card like that. If it was still only 2 known in the hobby, then maybe someone would think that it was a chance of a lifetime to own one. now that person can wait as there are several and more chances to get one and the mystique of owning one has went down now that there are more available. when there were only 2, it had cache. my friend lyle whiteman used to have one of the two and he was proud of it for sure but thats when they went for 10 grand a card and that was considered a huge price, even for a graziano that was one of two at the time.

now one of 8 or 9 goes for 15 or 20 grand and its a disappointment. well, the qty increased 4 times and the price increased by 2 times when maybe the price should have went down instead. it still went up though from those older days and if there are 10 more that come into the hobby, you can't keep expecting the price to climb to 30 k or 40 k. its not like baseball where 75 honus wagners is considered super rare and worth 200,000 for a poor example. that's because baseball has a much, much, much bigger collecting base. boxing is a lot smaller and 8 or 9 pop might be rare, but not as rare as 2 as it used to be. i think collectors are scared to pay 30 grand only to find 5 or 8 more of these pop up in the near future.

everyone has heard of wagner, no one outside of boxing card collectors knows of the rare graziano. wagner is a legend, a mystery. graziano and the circumstances surrounding this card is basically unknown outside of boxing collecting circles.

[Exhibitman]

I have been tracking them for years. It was roughly four known until relatively recently. The problem has been the number that have come up in a short time historically speaking. There are far fewer boxing collectors to be sure but I think if the price was around ten k there would be more than enough buyers.

[esquiresports]

I don't think number of cards known is the reason because you had a PSA 5 sell for $40K last year and two Authentic cards (one supposedly cut from sheet - but PSA would not actually grade that if true, and one with color added) each sold for $30K. The card that just sold has been sold multiple times and is not a new discovery. So we still have less than 10 examples known. I guess we will know more when another Graziano comes up for sale. Would love to know what that 6.5 sold for. I am going to throw out a wild guess of $75K, since it is a full 1.5 grades higher than any other version. Unfortunately we will probably never see that card for sale publicly.

Since all Wagners sold have commanded $400K or more the last several years, the Graziano still seems like a bargain (relatively speaking of course!). I've spoken with several friends mostly into baseball cards and they have now heard about this card. As the lore gets further into the mainstream, I think the chase will continue to push prices up. Hopefully not before I can afford one. It is one of the few national release, base set cards with a small population. Wagner is one of the only other examples. Everything else is regional, an error, variation or test set.