Aaron Judge

[Peter_Spaeth]

Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.

[irv]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Jose Canseco. Darryl Strawberry. Doc Gooden. All sure fire HOFers in their first few years. Judge has two or three months under his belt. To me, paying thousands of dollars for one of his cards is insane, and I could not care less how artificially scarce they are because they are signed in red not blue or whatever.

I agree with that a 100% as I have seen it time and time again where once, highly hyped players/cards always settle out and come back down to earth.

I believe it was another site where a member had sold a Nathan MacKinnon RC to a U.S. member for $4500 U.S.
He seen the card again, a few years later on E-Bay, when the hype died down, and posted the link. IIRC, the card sold for under $350 U.S.?

Also, just looking, trying to figure out what Judge's true RC is, I was overwhelmed with the amount of cards that are available and with the majority stating they are his RC.
This one example of many!
https://www.google.ca/search?q=aaron...ih=591&dpr=1.5

[rjackson44]

Paid $40 to $50 raw lol I have a good return if I wanted to sell. But that rarely happens, not for sale don't ask please

[irv]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Paid $40 to $50 raw lol I have a good return if I wanted to sell. But that rarely happens, not for sale don't ask please

You certainly have a pile, and no doubt you will make a pile of money some day, but if I were to guess, there were far fewer of those Lebron's around than there were Judge's?
http://www.beckett.com/news/aaron-ju...vin@rogers.com

[rjackson44]

Hi Irvin hope you are well send me your address wanna send you something octavio

[irv]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Hi Irvin hope you are well send me your address wanna send you something octavio

All is well, Octavio, thanks for asking.

Hope all is well with you as well.

E-mail/address sent.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If I was sitting on a bunch of LeBrons I would sell some, I don't see there being a whole lot of upside left.

[Peter_Spaeth]

[QUOTE=irv;1671252]I agree with that a 100% as I have seen it time and time again where once, highly hyped players/cards always settle out and come back down to earth.

I believe it was another site where a member had sold a Nathan MacKinnon RC to a U.S. member for $4500 U.S.
He seen the card again, a few years later on E-Bay, when the hype died down, and posted the link. IIRC, the card sold for under $350 U.S.?

Also, just looking, trying to figure out what Judge's true RC is, I was overwhelmed with the amount of cards that are available and with the majority stating they are his RC.
This one example of many!
https://www.google.ca/search?q=aaron...ih=591&dpr=1.5[/QUOTE


They are ALL his rookie plus the 125 that haven't been released yet in 2017. Not to mention the eight different color refractors and prisms and five different color ink autographs.

[packs]

If you collect pre-war cards you'll notice that there are many different variations of the same cards in different sets and the only thing that separates them is the manufacturer listed on the back. How can you think modern cards are ridiculous and then go buy a Lenox backed T206 for 100 times the cost of a Piedmont backed card and think there's nothing equally as stupid going on there? Or pay through the nose for a T216 that's no different from an E90 of the same player? What's the difference?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

If you collect pre-war cards you'll notice that there are many different variations of the same cards in different sets and the only thing that separates them is the manufacturer listed on the back. How can you think modern cards are ridiculous and then go buy a Lenox backed T206 for 100 times the cost of a Piedmont backed card and think there's nothing equally as stupid going on there? Or pay through the nose for a T216 that's no different from an E90 of the same player? What's the difference?

I don't care about those backs either, but I guess the difference is those were not made for the purpose of generating artificial scarcity, like all the multi color serially numbered refractors. They were just made as premiums for the product. They were not intended to have value. Now, you could take a card, make five with a blue dot, and people will pay ungodly sums for the rare blue dot variation. It seems stupid to me.

[packs]

But the premiums put on the pre-war cards with certain backs is just as artificial wouldn't you say? There's no reason that a Lenox has to be expensive.

[rjackson44]

Hi Peter I'm going to take your advice I got offered insane amount for all but declined hope he goes to the lakers lol

[irv]

Originally Posted by packs

But the premiums put on the pre-war cards with certain backs is just as artificial wouldn't you say? There's no reason that a Lenox has to be expensive.

If I am not misunderstanding your question, it's not only the player but also the rarity of said cards/backs that make them worth what they are.

Something 1 of 1, or something very few people can obtain/own has and will alway carry a premium.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't care about those backs either, but I guess the difference is those were not made for the purpose of generating artificial scarcity, like all the multi color serially numbered refractors. They were just made as premiums for the product. They were not intended to have value. Now, you could take a card, make five with a blue dot, and people will pay ungodly sums for the rare blue dot variation. It seems stupid to me.

I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I don't understand the autograph thing either. As you point out, the signature itself has almost no intrinsic value, so it's just another way to artificially distinguish one group of a player's million plus rookie cards from another group. And what drives it home for me is that they now have different color signatures, some of which apparently are worth more. The RED autographs, on some issues anyhow, are far more valuable than the BLUE autographs. Uh, ok, sure, whatever. I am sure some marketing guru will come up with even further differentiation of autographs. How about an ultra super rare version where the player actually writes out his full name instead of a chicken scratch of his initials? Or maybe they could add the date and call it the ultra super rare "with date" version? It all seems artificial to me.

And yeah, baseball prospects are notoriously unpredictable. And a few good months, or even a few good years, doesn't mean anything either in this most difficult of sports.

[irv]

Originally Posted by orly57

I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.

Very well said!

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by orly57

I can't agree more Peter. I've been screaming this from the rooftops. "Aritificial scarcity" is the perfect way to describe it. This one is a1/1, but an identical card with a red dot is a 1/5, and so on. I can see where children fall for it, but adults? Really? I suppose they also believe that the company throws away the rest of the jersey after using one swatch on a 1/1. I've tried warning people, but they passionately defend it. The effort by packs to compare to t206 backs is clever, but it doesn't work. The backs were for advertising, not to have kids chase the rare backs as inserts, or to add value to the card. And like you Peter, I don't get the whole t206 back-chasing thing either.

I remember the first time I saw Aaron Judge, when his name was Kevin Maas. Another big problem with manufactured scarcity it that these guys are paying 3k for an Aaron Judge, while at least I only lost 10 bucks on my Kevin Maas or David Justice speculating. Remember the Canseco craze? His Donruss went up to a whopping $100. If Canseco were a young player today performing as he did early in his career, these guys would be dropping 5-figures on his cards! Here's the thing: hall of famers are rare. Common players are, well, far more common. There have been prospects since The beginning of baseball, and most prospects become common players. So keep dropping big bucks looking for the next mike trout if you want, but it's a bad idea.

Finally, this auto-craze is absurd. You know why Thurman Munson autos are worth more than DiMaggio or Ted Williams? Because what makes autos valuable is rarity! By the time mike trout retires, he will have signed a million baseball cards. Then he will sign 5 million more post-retirement. His auto will be more common than Pete Rose's auto. But rather than listening to experience, when I tell young collectors all of this, they scoff at me. They will learn the hard way.

You can choose to chase potential hall of famers at obscene prices if you want, but I suggest you spend that 3k on a guy who is already in the hall of fame. Spend it on a guy who is already a legend. Spend it on a guy whose cards will not continue to be produced at alarming rates. Spend it on a timeless card with historic value. That's my advice to you guys who buy the shiny new stuff.

Hey Orly, why don't you let modern collectors or people like myself who will buy a modern player's cards decide how to spend our hard-earned money.

I could buy pieces like your Cobb postcard, but it doesn't interest me or appeal to me in the least. Do I enter your sandbox and verbally piss on your choices? No.

On the money topic, not everyone is in this for future investment, some people want to collect modern players they root for. And for those who are after a monetary return, people have done fine on the great current players, too.

You say modern Trout collectors will "learn the hard way." Ooh. What harsh lesson will this be? You think the kid or guy who paid a few hundred for a Trout will, in decades from now, walk around rueing the choice because the card dropped in value?

In 2027, will you walk the National with schadenfreude, hoping to hear the words: "Oh my God, my Trout was once worth $800. Now it's worth $200! My life is over! What a hard life lesson! If only I listened to that guy and bought a Cobb instead of the player I rooted for in my present life!"

Or what about the guy who can afford to drop a few grand or even ten grand on a Trout or Judge or Seager or Bellinger now? Will he learn the hard way if it drops to half its value in fifteen years? I don't think so.

- If he dropped 10k on a card and it loses nearly all its value, it's a loss the guy can shrug at. That's not a life-changing sum for someone with that cash to spend on a card.
- If he dropped 10k because he loves the player, he still loves the card, it's likely his favorite card or among them.

And if you think Judge is Kevin Maas, you've betrayed yourself as someone who doesn't know the game of baseball. Their approaches at the plate are different. Their ability to make adjustments is different. Their ability to hit for average and contact is different. As a cautionary anecdote about purchasing the cards of hot rookies that may not develop into bona fide stars, then yes, there's a comparison to be drawn— for now.

MC