Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Despite claims there has been nowhere near the same growth in price of low grade rose, Ryan, Stargell, Yaz, Brett and other rookies.

Yet.

I would not expect the same rate of growth, but historically speaking when a marquee card in top # slab goes up dramatically, collectors do tend to downshift. I mean as a Hank Aaron collector I cannot afford a near mint RC but I definitely can afford a lower grade one, and I cannot just 'skip' the RC for my collection. There has been growth, though. A vg Aaron RC averaged around $525 two years ago. The most recent one closed on eBay for $760 and that was down a bit from the recent averages of about $900. A vg Clemente RC was a $600 card two years ago; now it runs around $800 on average and a recent one closed at $1295.

That makes sense in context: is an 8 really worth 20x a 6? Is it worth 100x a 4? Not to everyone. If I can get a card with similar eye appeal but a technical flaw like a corner ding for a tiny % of the cost, maybe that is where I go? And if I go there, doesn't it stand to reason that other collectors will do the same and drive up prices on those replacement items?

One thing I'd be interested in seeing is how the relative prices of these cards in various grades vary over time. When a top grade card skyrockets does the multiple it now fetches over the next grades down tend to narrow back down to typical (whether due to price drops at the top or price rises at the bottom) or does the spread remain? What is the historical price differential between the various grades? The answer to that question might suggest where to invest next, in a HOF RC that hasn't grown faster relative to lower grade specimens. I wish I had the time and the mathematical chops to resolve that.